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Challenge Wanaka 2013 – Analyzing Results

This Saturday, we’ve had the first Iron-distance Pro race of the year in beautiful Wanaka, New Zealand.

As usual, the conditions for the race were pretty slow – the overall adjustment was -6:02 (leading to a new course rating of -4:39). The adjustments mainly came from a cold swim and a windy and hilly bike, while the run was pretty much comparable to other courses.

Male Race Results

Before the race, overall favorite Chris McCormack was a bit skeptical about his fitness. His fears were justified, his results were okay, but not up to his usual standard. (As a consequence, he slipped to #16 in my ratings, and Jordan Rapp moved into #10.) Instead, the race was won by Iron-rookie Dylan McNeice, who posted a fantastic swim time (close to the course record by Kieran Doe, but well ahead of all other athletes), held steady on the bike and then was still cool enough to shake off Jamie Whyte who managed to close the gap on the run. Another impressive debut!

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:47:56 04:58:14 02:59:59 08:51:18 n/a
2 Jamie Whyte NZL 00:55:05 04:52:42 03:03:45 08:55:43 08:52:35
3 Chris McCormack AUS 00:55:07 04:58:44 02:59:52 08:58:05 08:32:53
4 Keegan Williams NZL 00:59:09 04:56:01 03:00:21 08:59:50 09:06:40
5 Bryan Rhodes NZL 00:51:38 04:56:47 03:12:00 09:04:12 09:20:54
6 Carl Read NZL 00:59:33 05:06:14 02:58:10 09:08:23 n/a
7 Axel Reiser NZL 01:02:18 05:17:19 03:19:56 09:44:28 09:14:51
8 Leon Griffin AUS 00:55:10 04:54:49 03:55:33 09:51:14 09:02:52

Female Race Results

On the female side, race favorite Gina Crawford delivered. Her win faced its biggest danger when she caught some stomach bug in the week before the race, but she was strong enough on race day to win wire-to-wire in a new course record. Her bike was so strong that she opened a 16 minute gap to Jo Lawn, who in turn was run down in the last stretch by Candice Hammond. Kate Bevilaqua struggled a bit on her comeback after more than a year of struggling with injuries – but at least she’s back to finishing Ironman-distance races!

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Gina Crawford NZL 00:59:14 05:08:30 03:11:07 09:24:31 09:35:52
2 Candice Hammond NZL 01:06:52 05:23:07 03:09:43 09:44:22 09:49:33
3 Joanna Lawn NZL 00:59:46 05:24:20 03:15:08 09:44:30 09:40:40
4 Simone Maier GER 01:13:10 05:20:30 03:12:08 09:51:23 10:06:53
5 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 01:06:44 05:29:15 03:39:54 10:21:04 10:07:57
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 01:00:42 05:33:58 03:43:11 10:22:49 10:00:49
7 Ali Hollington NZL 01:10:04 05:49:59 03:51:10 10:56:53 n/a

Looking ahead to Kona 2013 – First Predictions

In 2012 I did a series of posts on the winning odds for Kona and how they change over the year. I’d like to continue that for 2013. Here is the first post of that series.

Male

After all the 2012 racing is over, here are the chances for winning Kona 2013 for the men:

  • Craig Alexander: 24% (3-1)
  • Pete Jacobs: 23% (3-1)
  • Marino Vanhoenacker: 17% (5-1)
  • Chris McCormack: 11% (8-1)
  • Andreas Raelert: 7% (13-1)
  • James Cunnama: 5% (18-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 3% (31-1)
  • Cameron Brown: 2% (43-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 2% (43-1)
The graph on the right shows the changes that occurred since early October 2012 (including Kona):Kona2013MenOdds
  • Crowie’s “bad” race in Kona decreased his chances, but he still leads the odds. (Similar to Macca, it remains to be seen if he is actually going to race Kona 2013).
  • With Crowie’s lowered odds, the DNFs of Macca and Marino actually led to an increase in their odds (even in the absence of new results). They’ll have to race in 2013 if they want to qualify for Kona, and that will give a better indication of where they are.
  • Pete Jacobs’ win has put him into almost a statistical dead heat with Crowie. He just knows how to race Kona, and it will be very interesting to see what influence the pressure of defending is going to have on him.
  • Andreas Raelert continues to slip in the odds. After four years on the Kona podium, you can’t ignore him, but will he ever make it to the top spot? I’m keeping my fingers crossed for him!
  • James Cunnama is just one of a number of new athletes that didn’t race Kona in 2012 but may play a role in 2013.
  • Eneko Llanos (just as Cam Brown) is still a great athlete, but probably can’t be considered a top Kona contender for much longer.

Female

Here are the 2013 Kona odds for the women:

  • Mirinda Carfrae: 25% (3-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 22% (4-1)
  • Caroline Steffen: 22% (4-1)
  • Rachel Joyce: 11% (8-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 7% (13-1)
  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 4% (26-1)

Here are a few of the events that lead to the changes:Kona2013WomenOdds

  • After the Kona race, Rinnie, Leanda and Caroline are very close together – it would be very hard to pick a favorite. Rinnie has to find back to her winning form, and Leanda and Caroline will have to work hard to repeat their great 2012 season (or even improve further). An exciting October to look forward to, especially considering that Rinnie and Leanda probably won’t race another IM before Kona!
  • Rachel and Mary Beth will look for some further improvement to close the (statistical) gap to the first three women.
  • As for the men, there are going to be a few athletes that were not on the 2012 list that are going to play in role in 2013. Yvonne van Vlercken is one example, if she manages to stay on track with her training and prep, I’m sure that she’ll have a great season.

Challenge Wanaka 2013 – Predictions

The first long distance race for 2013 is coming up – Challenge Wanaka! The race is set in a beautiful spot in New Zealand’s Southern Alps. It’s a smaller race but this year with a pretty good pro field. There has already been some banter on Twitter about the Aussie – New Zealand rivalry. Apparently Rhodesy started it (“Kiwi’s Vs the Aussie’s going to be fun!”), of course Macca had to weigh in (“will be like stealing candy from kids. Can’t wait mate”) which then triggered a comment from Paul Amey (“the only kids you’ve stolen candy from was your own….when they were asleep!”). The women’s race seems to be safe for New Zealand, but Gina Crawford and Jo Lawn will battle for the win until the end. (The IMTalk guys have a great pre-Wanaka interview with Jo Lawn on IMTalk Episode 343 – Jo Lawn.)

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Aaron Farlow AUS 00:50:43 04:44:51 03:02:41 08:41:53
2 Jamie Whyte NZL 00:51:31 04:47:45 03:08:55 08:51:53
3 Kieran Doe NZL 00:47:44 04:50:23 03:15:42 08:57:17

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Gina Crawford NZL 00:54:21 05:24:10 03:17:16 09:44:06
2 Britta Martin NZL 01:01:58 05:19:27 03:17:11 09:47:39
3 Simone Maier GER 01:05:44 05:22:54 03:20:03 09:57:42

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:34:41 Richard Ussher 2010-01-16
Swim overall 00:47:44 Kieran Doe 2012-01-21
Bike overall 04:44:51 Aaron Farlow 2012-01-21
Run overall 03:00:04 Scott Defilippis 2012-01-21
Total female 09:28:27 Gina Crawford 2009-01-01
Swim female 00:54:21 Gina Crawford 2012-01-21
Swim female 00:54:21 Nicole Ward 2012-01-21
Bike female 05:19:27 Britta Martin 2012-01-21
Run female 03:17:11 Britta Martin 2012-01-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Wanaka is – 04:22.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Wanaka

Year Adjustment # of Athletes Rating
2007 03:11 6 03:11
2008 -04:50 9 -00:49
2009 06:06 9 01:29
2010 00:28 12 01:14
2011 -25:05 11 -04:02
2012 -06:01 15 -04:22

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McCormack AUS 08:31:25 08:27:19 10
2 Jamie Whyte NZL 08:50:57 08:46:42 83
3 Leon Griffin AUS 09:01:23 08:57:03 137
4 Keegan Williams NZL 09:05:37 09:01:15 162
5 Axel Reiser NZL 09:13:19 09:08:53 224
6 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:19:41 09:15:12 258
7 Diederik Scheltinga NED n/a unrated n/a
8 Carl Read NZL n/a unrated n/a
9 Dylan McNeice NZL n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Gina Crawford NZL 09:34:16 09:29:40 17
2 Joanna Lawn NZL 09:39:12 09:34:33 28
3 Candice Hammond NZL 09:47:52 09:43:09 44
4 Kim Loeffler USA 09:52:11 09:47:26 62
5 Julia Grant NZL 09:59:56 09:55:07 88
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:00:10 09:55:21 88
7 Simone Maier GER 10:05:07 10:00:16 103
8 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:06:09 10:01:17 106
9 Jodie Scott AUS 10:47:45 10:42:33 228
10 Ali Hollington NZL n/a unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Chris McCormack: 51% (1-1)
  • Jamie Whyte: 20% (4-1)
  • Keegan Williams: 15% (6-1)
  • Leon Griffin: 7% (13-1)
  • Bryan Rhodes: 4% (23-1)
  • Axel Reiser: 3% (33-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Gina Crawford: 50% (1-1)
  • Joanna Lawn: 28% (3-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 9% (10-1)
  • Kim Loeffler: 8% (12-1)
  • Candice Hammond: 5% (20-1)

Best Swimmers, Bikers and Runners in IM-distance Triathlons

As described in my recently released 2012 Rating Report (get your copy here), I’ve extended my analysis to come up with ratings for each of the legs in a triathlon. As with the „total“ rating, the individual ratings account for conditions and a slow or fast course in order to compare results from different races and courses. As the data for each of the legs is not always available, I’ve relaxed the requirements for a valid rating a bit: Only two results are necessary for a rating in one of the disciplines. Still, one result in the last twelve months is required.

In this post you can find the best rated swimmers, bikers and runners. I’ve also updated my “TOP 10 Ratings” page (in the menu), which lists all results for these athletes.

TOP Swim-Rated Athletes

A lot of the names in the swim-ratings are not that well known: There are swim-specialists that do not play a major role for the rest of the race. But these athletes have a great potential: For example, Andy Potts has shown that a great swimmer can develop into a great Ironman athlete capable of winning races.

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Male Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Andy Potts USA 00:45:16 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 7
2 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 00:46:24 IM Brasil on 2012-05-27 2
3 Paul Matthews AUS 00:46:34 IM Arizona on 2012-11-18 2
4 Marko Albert EST 00:46:36 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 4
5 Greg Bennett USA 00:46:38 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 2
6 Stephane Poulat FRA 00:46:43 IM Germany on 2012-07-08 2
7 David Dellow AUS 00:46:48 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 4
8 Kieran Doe NZL 00:46:48 Challenge Wanaka on 2012-01-21 8
9 Benjamin Sanson FRA 00:46:58 Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08 5
10 Michael Raelert GER 00:46:58 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 2

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Female Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Amanda Stevens USA 00:48:27 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 5
2 Lucie Zelenkova ZAF 00:49:09 Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08 7
3 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:50:36 IM New York on 2012-08-11 14
4 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:56 IM Arizona on 2012-11-18 13
5 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:50:56 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 9
6 Leanda Cave GBR 00:50:58 IM Arizona on 2012-11-18 12
7 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:51:10 IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25 8
8 Simone Braendli SWI 00:51:13 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 7
9 Tami Ritchie 00:51:27 IM Texas on 2012-05-19 2
10 Anja Beranek GER 00:51:39 IM Germany on 2012-07-08 2

TOP Bike-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Male Athletes

The names in the TOP 10 bike-ratings are much better known than the swimmers. After his fantastic races in Florida (posting a new world record for the bike leg) and Arizona Andy Starykowicz leads the ranking followed by Sebastian Kienle and Konstantin Bachor (who both posted really fast bike times in Roth). Jordan Rapp and Ben Hoffmann prove that the US has some pretty good bike riders, too. But all in all, the Europeans dominate this ranking.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 04:26:53 IM Arizona on 2012-11-18 2
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 04:30:13 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 5
3 Konstantin Bachor GER 04:30:55 Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08 4
4 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 04:32:08 IM Germany on 2012-07-08 12
5 Maik Twelsiek GER 04:33:30 IM New York on 2012-08-11 15
6 Faris Al-Sultan GER 04:33:54 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 13
7 Jordan Rapp USA 04:35:23 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 10
8 Timo Bracht GER 04:35:23 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 14
9 Dirk Bockel LUX 04:35:33 IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25 8
10 Ben Hoffman USA 04:36:34 IM Wisconsin on 2012-09-09 8

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Female Athletes

On the women’s side, we have a Swiss domination, even if Caroline Steffen and Natascha Badmann are from two different generations. As on the men’s side, there are some US athletes, but the Europeans dominate this ranking.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Caroline Steffen SUI 05:00:32 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 11
2 Natascha Badmann SWI 05:03:44 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 7
3 Yvonne Van Vlerken AUT 05:04:05 IM Florida on 2012-11-03 7
4 Amy Marsh USA 05:06:08 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 7
5 Sophie De Groote BEL 05:06:56 IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25 2
6 Diana Riesler GER 05:07:25 IM South Africa on 2012-04-22 4
7 Tine Deckers BEL 05:08:10 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 11
8 Mary Beth Ellis USA 05:08:30 IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25 8
9 Rachel Joyce GBR 05:08:33 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 9
10 Anja Beranek GER 05:09:35 IM Germany on 2012-07-08 2

TOP Run-Rated Athletes

The run is where races are decided, so it is not surprising to see that IM winners dominate this ranking.

TOP 10 Run-Rated Male Athletes

Bart Aernouts from Belgium is the surprise leader in the men’s run rating. He has posted a 2:42 in Melbourne and a 2:47 in Kona – if his swim and bike improve a bit further, he can certainly win a smaller IM race. If it weren’t for his 3h-run in Kona, Crowie would have lead this ranking. He also posted the fastest run-split of 2012 with a 2:38:46 in Melbourne.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Bart Aernouts BEL 02:47:49 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 2
2 Craig Alexander AUS 02:48:51 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 9
3 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 02:49:44 IM Germany on 2012-07-08 5
4 Eneko Llanos ESP 02:51:24 IM Melbourne on 2012-03-24 14
5 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 02:51:48 IM Germany on 2012-07-08 12
6 Paul Matthews AUS 02:51:53 IM Arizona on 2012-11-18 2
7 Timo Bracht GER 02:52:48 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 14
8 Chris McCormack AUS 02:53:27 IM Cairns on 2012-06-02 13
9 Hans Nilsson DEN 02:53:44 Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08 2
10 Cameron Brown NZL 02:53:48 Challenge Roth on 2012-07-08 16

TOP 10 Run-Rated Female Athletes

On the women’s side, Rinnie still has the best run in the scene – and by quite a large margin. Cait Snow is another great runner – she’s had the fastest 2012 run with a 2:51:46 in Texas. Similar to Sonja Tajsich, she is usually too far back after the bike to win big races. There are a lot of younger athletes that are still improving, so I expect to see a lot of change in the next years in this ranking.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 03:00:53 IM Florida on 2012-11-03 7
2 Caitlin Snow USA 03:03:49 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 13
3 Sonja Tajsich GER 03:06:59 IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25 12
4 Beth Walsh USA 03:07:21 IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25 3
5 Kristin Moeller GER 03:08:55 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 7
6 Elizabeth Lyles USA 03:08:56 IM Cozumel on 2012-11-25 2
7 Yvonne Van Vlerken AUT 03:09:12 IM Florida on 2012-11-03 7
8 Linsey Corbin USA 03:10:59 IM Arizona on 2012-11-18 14
9 Kelly Williamson USA 03:11:21 IM Hawaii on 2012-10-13 7
10 Erika Csomor HUN 03:12:33 IM Switzerland on 2012-07-15 18

“Geeky” Interview on IMTalk podcast

While I was working on my 2012 Rating Report, Bevan and John from IMTalk gave me the chance to offer some of the content to their listeners. (I love listening to IMTalk myself, though it feels a bit strange to listen to yourself at double speed when running.) If you haven’t listened yet, give it a try, I’m sure you’ll enjoy it! Here’s the link to the episode:

IMTalk Episode 342

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