Race Conditions

According to my calculations, IM Sweden was a medium fast course with an adjustment of 8:45. (This  number looks a bit suspicious, and I’m looking into it. Update: I’ve done a pretty involved analysis on how I’m calculation adjustments and course ratings. I noticed that my current algorithm is not very good in dealing with very slow and very fast races and discards a lot of results in these cases as “too far off”. I’m working on improving this, in the meantime 25:00 minutes is a better estimate of IM Sweden’s course rating, i.e. it is a very fast course, probably even faster than Roth or Austria.)

Male Results

On the men’s side, Jan Raphael had a strong race, was in the mix for the whole day and posted the fastest run to finally win another Ironman:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Jan Raphael	GER	00:48:32	04:26:32	02:45:44	08:04:01	08:29:40
2	Dorian Wagner	GER	00:48:38	04:26:31	02:49:49	08:08:06	08:39:52
3	Horst Reichel	GER	00:48:16	04:27:09	02:51:00	08:10:12	09:19:21
4	Jonas Djurback	SWE	00:48:29	04:26:51	02:52:37	08:10:51	09:08:14
5	Anton Blokhin	UKR	00:48:40	04:30:54	02:50:41	08:13:56	08:51:33
6	Andi Boecherer	GER	00:48:15	04:26:37	02:56:55	08:15:26	08:32:59
7	Sergio Marques	PRT	00:53:17	04:31:35	02:48:20	08:16:21	08:54:39
8	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	00:48:45	04:24:20	03:05:09	08:21:04	n/a
9	Teemu Lemmettylae	FIN	00:58:39	04:25:48	02:53:39	08:21:51	09:01:10
10	Christophe Bastie	FRA	00:52:53	04:27:38	02:58:02	08:21:54	08:45:16
11	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	00:48:37	04:30:58	03:00:49	08:24:20	08:57:30
12	Jens Groenbek	DEN	00:50:28	04:34:36	02:57:40	08:25:26	08:42:56
13	David Naesvik	SWE	00:54:47	04:30:17	03:00:59	08:28:53	09:01:20
14	Heinrich Sickl	AUT	00:55:23	04:29:37	03:09:34	08:37:43	09:33:49
15	Ted Aas	SWE	00:53:31	04:31:14	03:13:02	08:40:47	09:11:24
16	Raul Furtado	BRA	00:53:20	04:30:45	03:15:56	08:43:54	08:59:12
17	Jonas Colting	SWE	00:50:14	04:34:36	03:13:00	08:45:02	09:41:19
18	Luke Dragstra	USA	00:50:41	04:34:13	03:30:39	08:59:07	08:52:17
19	Teemu Kyllonen	GBR	01:02:26	04:37:24	03:17:19	09:03:10	n/a
20	Ari Saukko	FIN	00:57:54	04:42:43	04:07:15	09:52:29	n/a
21	Marek Nemcik	SVK	01:12:30	05:12:31	04:27:19	10:58:00	11:58:35
22	Ivan Kharin	RUS	01:12:45	04:46:16	05:22:17	11:26:25	11:15:18

Female Results

The home country was very happy to see a local winner. Again, it took the fastest run to put away the race:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Asa Lundström	SWE	01:00:17	04:51:45	03:18:19	09:13:27	09:46:47
2	Dana Wagner	GER	00:58:55	04:48:47	03:31:30	09:22:32	09:55:40
3	Emi Sakai	JPN	01:04:48	04:53:38	03:31:05	09:34:36	10:26:18
4	Rebekka Essmüller	GER	00:55:03	04:57:28	03:42:28	09:39:02	10:06:00
5	Helene Malmkvist	SWE	01:07:47	04:48:42	04:23:32	10:28:14	n/a
6	Zsuzsanna Harsanyi	HUN	01:04:59	05:31:48	04:01:42	10:44:38	10:55:11
7	Conny Dauben	GER	01:10:53	05:22:26	04:22:04	11:00:03	10:50:11

Race Conditions

Mont Tremblant turned out to be a medium fast course with an adjustment of 11:11. There were only 12 rated athletes finishing the race, so this number may change quite a bit in the next years.

Male Results

Romain Guillaume had a commanding lead after the swim and bike, so he could “afford” a 3:09 marathon and still win by about 6 minutes:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Romain Guillaume	FRA	00:51:22	04:35:17	03:09:09	08:40:48	09:04:38
2	Alejandro Santamaria	ESP	00:57:17	04:52:23	02:52:35	08:46:58	08:46:13
3	Matthew Russell	USA	01:02:34	04:47:11	02:53:29	08:48:12	08:54:20
4	Martin Lamontagne Lacasse	CAN	00:55:05	05:02:16	03:02:15	09:04:59	09:38:59
5	Ryan Cain	CAN	00:57:02	04:58:56	03:05:25	09:06:08	09:53:33
6	Brendan Halpin	USA	01:06:07	05:07:46	03:18:24	09:37:18	09:17:02
7	Chuck Perreault	CAN	00:55:02	05:06:00	03:31:40	09:38:57	n/a
8	Nigel Gray	CAN	00:57:06	04:45:02	05:23:52	11:11:19	08:58:48

Female Results

After winning IM Lake Placid about a month ago, Jessie Donavan added another IM title:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Jessie Donavan	USA	01:07:33	05:06:31	03:11:35	09:30:46	09:35:22
2	Uli Bromme	USA	01:04:38	05:14:35	03:17:32	09:42:45	09:50:53
3	Rachel Kiers	CAN	01:01:40	05:08:46	03:33:55	09:49:49	10:05:10
4	Marie Danais	CAN	00:57:10	05:42:16	03:28:45	10:14:33	10:23:02
5	Katya Meyers	USA	01:07:28	05:15:35	03:50:03	10:19:23	10:13:50

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Louisville is a relatively slow course (probably because of the heat) with a course rating of 2:53 (but quite some variation). Last year’s winners were Chris McDonald in 8:27 and Nina Kraft in 9:38. The course records are 08:25:27 by Victor Zyemtsev and 09:20:21 by Nina Kraft, both from 2009. This year, it is a 1.000 points race, so I don’t expect any Kona contenders to race this race.

Male Participants

Chris McDonald is back to defend his title:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:45:34	08:48:23	74
2	Patrick Evoe	USA	08:50:13	08:53:03	100
3	Daniel Bretscher	USA	09:06:15	09:09:10	198
4	Jim Lamastra		09:06:31	09:09:27	202
5	Ivan Albano	BRA	09:19:10	09:22:10	303
6	Peter Kotland	USA	09:28:07	09:31:09	372
7	Yeun Sik Ham	KOR	09:40:08	09:43:14	447
8	Thomas Gerlach	USA	09:47:19	09:50:28	507
9	Bojan Maric	SCG	10:09:47	10:13:03	641
10	Reinaldo Oliveira	BRA	10:09:48	10:13:04	642
11	Yong Taek Kim	KOR	10:11:20	10:14:36	653
12	Andrew Hodges		n/a	unrated	n/a
13	Timothy Beardall		n/a	unrated	n/a
14	Jared Woodford		n/a	unrated	n/a
15	Mike Hermanson		n/a	unrated	n/a
16	Robert Wade		n/a	unrated	n/a
17	Thomas Maliszewski		n/a	unrated	n/a
18	Ed Donner		n/a	unrated	n/a

He is also the one with the best winning odds:

• Chris McDonald: 51%
• Patrick Evoe: 41%

Other than these two, no athlete has a reasonable (statistical) chance of winning the race.

Female Participants

As for the men, last year’s winner Nina Kraft is back to defend her title:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Nina Kraft	GER	09:34:21	09:37:25	31
2	Jessica Smith	USA	09:46:04	09:49:12	63
3	Bree Wee	USA	09:55:34	09:58:45	91
4	Jackie Arendt	USA	10:01:48	10:05:01	107
5	Terra Castro	USA	10:14:58	10:18:16	156
6	April Lea Gellatly	USA	10:30:27	10:33:50	197
7	Tatiana Vertiz		10:53:39	10:57:09	247
8	Amanda McKenzie	AUS	11:08:04	11:11:39	261

She also leads the winning odds:

• Nina Kraft: 57%
• Jackie Arendt: 15%
• Bree Wee: 11%
• Jessica Smith: 10%

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:45:34	08:48:23	74
2	Patrick Evoe	USA	08:50:13	08:53:03	100
3	Daniel Bretscher	USA	09:06:15	09:09:10	198
4	Jim Lamastra		09:06:31	09:09:27	202
5	Ivan Albano	BRA	09:19:10	09:22:10	303
6	Peter Kotland	USA	09:28:07	09:31:09	372
7	Yeun Sik Ham	KOR	09:40:08	09:43:14	447
8	Thomas Gerlach	USA	09:47:19	09:50:28	507
9	Bojan Maric	SCG	10:09:47	10:13:03	641
10	Reinaldo Oliveira	BRA	10:09:48	10:13:04	642
11	Yong Taek Kim	KOR	10:11:20	10:14:36	653
12	Andrew Hodges		n/a	unrated	n/a
13	Timothy Beardall		n/a	unrated	n/a
14	Jared Woodford		n/a	unrated	n/a
15	Mike Hermanson		n/a	unrated	n/a
16	Robert Wade		n/a	unrated	n/a
17	Thomas Maliszewski		n/a	unrated	n/a
18	Ed Donner		n/a	unrated	n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Nina Kraft	GER	09:34:21	09:37:25	31
2	Jessica Smith	USA	09:46:04	09:49:12	63
3	Bree Wee	USA	09:55:34	09:58:45	91
4	Jackie Arendt	USA	10:01:48	10:05:01	107
5	Terra Castro	USA	10:14:58	10:18:16	156
6	April Lea Gellatly	USA	10:30:27	10:33:50	197
7	Tatiana Vertiz		10:53:39	10:57:09	247
8	Amanda McKenzie	AUS	11:08:04	11:11:39	261

Results for Chris McDonald (AUS)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM New York	2012-08-11	00:43:34	04:40:37	03:13:39	08:41:30	08:50:34	08:48:23	10
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	00:51:47	04:35:45	02:55:22	08:27:36	08:37:07	08:48:09	1
IM Brasil	2011-05-29				08:24:34	08:43:39	08:49:10	5
IM Florida	2010-11-06	00:51:29	04:33:01	03:03:02	08:32:37	08:48:37	08:49:42	9
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	00:57:53	04:44:30	03:05:16	08:52:04	08:53:02	08:49:48	35
Challenge Roth	2010-07-18	00:54:42	04:35:17	03:04:39	08:37:22	08:55:40	08:49:29	10
IM Coeur d’Alene	2010-06-27	00:55:47	04:42:39	03:07:01	08:48:30	08:54:10	08:48:53	5
IM St. George	2010-05-01	00:51:20	04:54:02	03:06:25	08:54:42	08:50:40	08:48:20	3
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	00:54:21	04:43:14	03:13:05	08:56:47	08:55:05	08:48:04	5
Challenge Roth	2009-07-12	00:50:30	04:22:31	03:01:39	08:17:39	08:38:21	08:47:21	11
Challenge Wanaka	2009-01-01				08:37:41	08:43:23	08:48:20	1
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	00:50:25	04:33:54	03:31:02	08:58:59	09:05:56	08:48:50	17
IM Wisconsin	2008-09-07	00:51:52	04:48:41	02:56:40	08:43:29	08:44:02	08:46:56	1
IM Louisville	2008-08-27	00:54:53	04:36:13	03:19:48	08:54:54	08:51:23	08:47:16	2
Challenge Roth	2008-07-13	00:50:02	04:29:38	02:58:25	08:20:59	08:41:06	08:46:44	4
Challenge Wanaka	2008-01-19				08:49:37	08:53:06	08:47:33	2
IM Western Australia	2007-12-01	00:52:17	04:26:53	03:02:02	08:21:12	08:37:23	08:46:44	8
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	00:51:54	04:39:58	03:00:34	08:38:40	08:40:18	08:48:16	1
Challenge Roth	2007-06-24	00:51:27	04:31:27	02:57:54	08:24:42	08:45:08	08:49:41	9
IM Western Australia	2006-12-03	00:51:59	04:32:27	03:11:34	08:36:00	08:43:11	08:50:36	4
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	00:57:33	04:55:17	03:13:02	09:12:35	08:59:59	08:52:10	2
IM Lake Placid	2006-07-23	00:52:35	05:01:32	03:08:54	09:07:55	09:00:41	08:50:15	9
IM Australia	2006-05-11	00:50:01	04:55:15	03:11:53	08:57:09	08:55:07	08:47:02	8
IM Western Australia	2005-11-27	00:55:10	04:38:00	03:04:28	08:37:38	08:39:53	08:43:44	6
IM Canada	2005-08-29	00:54:58	04:42:31	03:06:13	08:47:10	08:45:07	08:45:54	5
IM New Zealand	2005-05-03	00:52:38	04:49:55	02:59:38	08:46:45	08:46:45	08:46:45	5

Results for Patrick Evoe (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	00:53:02	04:24:09	02:59:23	08:30:36	08:43:23	08:53:03	2
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	00:54:16	04:39:10	02:52:26	08:30:35	08:40:09	08:55:00	2
IM Texas	2011-05-21	00:58:30	04:30:26	02:59:28	08:32:29	08:38:04	08:58:24	8
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28	00:00:00	00:00:00	00:00:00	08:35:27	08:45:38	09:03:53	7
IM Louisville	2010-08-29	00:56:07	04:48:06	03:03:40	08:53:14	08:56:03	09:09:29	4
IM Coeur d’Alene	2010-06-27	01:00:55	04:51:38	02:56:10	08:52:05	08:57:47	09:14:51	7
IM Cozumel	2009-11-29	00:51:00	04:45:52	05:28:43	11:09:12	11:16:29	10:03:25	12
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	01:03:30	05:19:23	03:29:10	09:56:43	09:54:52	09:25:21	60
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	00:57:48	04:57:50	03:12:49	09:14:18	09:12:38	09:07:33	9
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	00:59:09	04:49:47	03:03:55	08:59:16	09:00:58	09:00:58	5

Results for Daniel Bretscher (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid	2011-07-24	00:55:21	05:02:40	03:04:42	09:07:05	09:09:10	09:09:10	5

Results for Jim Lamastra ()

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Texas	2012-05-19	00:53:31	04:45:43	03:11:34	08:55:20	09:09:27	09:09:27	13

Results for Ivan Albano (BRA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM South Africa	2012-04-22	01:03:45	05:18:45	03:12:58	09:40:30	09:34:13	09:22:10	14
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	00:53:48	04:44:11	03:18:18	09:01:14	09:14:50	09:20:06	30
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	00:55:42	04:57:54	03:22:01	09:21:39	09:32:11	09:21:03	5
IM Brasil	2011-05-29				08:48:57	09:08:58	09:18:49	7
IM Brasil	2010-05-30	00:48:59	04:52:51	03:12:14	08:54:05	09:10:59	09:21:04	9
IM Cozumel	2009-11-29	00:46:41	04:59:44	03:32:45	09:23:59	09:30:07	09:23:09	9
IM Brasil	2009-05-31	00:55:29	04:51:17	03:17:52	09:04:38	09:17:57	09:21:38	10
IM Louisville	2008-08-27	00:54:51	04:56:48	04:34:09	10:31:50	10:27:41	09:22:30	17
IM Brasil	2008-05-25	00:58:59	04:42:02	03:13:01	08:58:55	09:07:57	09:07:29	7
IM Florida	2007-11-03	00:53:03	04:41:34	03:11:09	08:50:46	09:06:40	09:07:21	18
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	00:52:44	04:51:16	03:19:56	09:11:09	09:12:54	09:07:33	9
IM Hawaii	2006-10-21	00:59:58	04:56:12	03:13:35	09:15:57	09:11:44	09:05:25	52
IM Brasil	2006-01-01	00:54:00	04:47:20	03:03:42	08:45:00	08:51:34	09:02:32	8
IM Wisconsin	2005-09-11	00:59:02	05:05:37	03:15:43	09:27:56	09:12:46	09:08:46	7
IM Brasil	2005-05-28	00:57:34	04:57:15	03:09:36	09:04:25	09:04:25	09:04:25	5

Results for Peter Kotland (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	00:57:52	05:07:20	03:06:48	09:20:28	09:23:50	09:31:09	14
IM Louisville	2008-08-27	00:59:33	05:06:11	03:19:39	09:32:51	09:29:05	09:33:01	9
IM Florida	2007-11-03	00:57:40	04:48:56	03:11:30	09:04:44	09:21:03	09:33:56	27
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	00:56:07	05:04:01	03:11:53	09:22:20	09:24:07	09:36:53	14
IM Coeur d’Alene	2007-06-23	01:00:26	05:30:22	03:09:33	09:45:34	09:47:55	09:40:24	19
IM Florida	2006-11-04	00:58:29	05:06:36	03:08:18	09:22:25	09:32:53	09:37:44	20
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	01:01:27	05:38:46	03:24:27	10:18:42	10:04:35	09:39:46	16
IM Florida	2005-11-05	00:57:40	04:50:07	03:13:25	09:08:36	09:12:35	09:22:57	14
IM Brasil	2005-05-28	00:57:35	05:16:44	03:20:22	09:34:43	09:34:43	09:34:43	12

Results for Yeun Sik Ham (KOR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Korea	2011-07-03	01:02:43	05:03:40	02:58:19	09:36:02	09:43:14	09:43:14	6

Results for Thomas Gerlach (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM St. George	2012-04-29	00:59:19	05:33:54	03:12:14	09:49:00	09:08:52	09:50:28	4
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	00:57:04	04:43:37	03:12:27	08:57:00	09:10:30	10:02:41	27
IM Wisconsin	2010-09-12	01:01:16	05:05:38	03:40:33	09:53:49	09:56:13	10:20:52	16
IM Louisville	2010-08-29	00:57:45	05:08:27	03:55:53	10:08:29	10:11:42	10:28:59	12
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	01:00:57	05:19:56	04:15:24	10:43:20	10:41:18	10:37:20	20
IM Wisconsin	2008-09-07	01:05:29	05:27:43	03:50:55	10:30:50	10:31:30	10:35:03	19
IM Wisconsin	2007-09-09	01:09:56	05:32:10	03:48:53	10:40:11	10:39:04	10:37:44	23
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	01:11:55	05:44:07	03:41:58	10:50:49	10:35:58	10:35:58	20

Results for Bojan Maric (SCG)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Austria	2012-07-01	01:03:07	05:03:35	03:41:53	09:55:18	10:07:25	10:13:03	18
IM Florida	2011-11-05	00:59:07	05:14:04	03:46:25	10:08:43	10:35:30	10:15:07	24
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	00:57:37	05:20:15	03:31:27	09:56:06	10:07:17	10:06:11	6
IM Florida	2010-11-06	00:57:48	05:04:23	03:41:08	09:52:48	10:11:19	10:05:25	30
IM Florida	2008-11-01	00:58:51	04:59:42	03:27:19	09:32:06	09:53:56	09:57:49	33
IM Switzerland	2005-07-15	00:55:58	05:20:42	03:37:21	10:02:50	10:07:51	10:07:51	23

Results for Reinaldo Oliveira (BRA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Roth	2011-07-10	00:54:33	05:01:14	03:56:58	09:56:26	10:23:19	10:13:04	24
IM Florida	2008-11-01	01:02:40	04:54:45	03:26:50	09:29:10	09:50:53	09:50:53	32

Results for Yong Taek Kim (KOR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Korea	2011-07-03	01:11:25	05:17:39	03:28:05	10:07:00	10:14:36	10:14:36	7

Results for Andrew Hodges ()

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Results for Timothy Beardall ()

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Results for Jared Woodford ()

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Results for Mike Hermanson ()

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Results for Robert Wade ()

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Results for Thomas Maliszewski ()

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Results for Ed Donner ()

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Adjusted

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Rank in Race

Results for Nina Kraft (GER)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	00:50:14	05:22:47	03:19:17	09:38:14	09:49:05	09:37:25	1
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	00:52:56	05:14:30	03:07:33	09:20:21	09:23:43	09:29:40	1
IM Florida	2007-11-03	00:50:43	04:59:22	03:11:12	09:05:35	09:21:55	09:33:13	1
IM Louisville	2007-08-26	00:48:52	05:28:43	03:27:18	09:51:56	09:53:48	09:39:24	2
IM Brasil	2007-05-27	00:50:39	05:07:49	03:14:13	09:12:41	09:23:56	09:23:56	1

Results for Jessica Smith (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Arizona	2011-11-19	00:54:00	05:07:30	03:27:13	09:34:45	09:49:12	09:49:12	12

Results for Bree Wee (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Florida	2011-11-05	00:54:57	04:56:26	03:36:50	09:34:41	09:59:58	09:58:45	6
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	00:57:54	05:24:28	03:24:48	09:52:23	09:53:27	09:58:26	22
IM Louisville	2010-08-29	00:55:32	05:22:21	03:26:17	09:50:35	09:53:42	09:59:33	3
IM South Africa	2010-04-25	00:52:43	05:07:34	03:45:08	09:49:19	09:58:13	10:01:09	8
IM Cozumel	2009-11-29	00:46:39	05:17:18	03:37:32	09:45:24	09:51:46	10:02:08	4
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	00:55:47	05:24:06	03:33:04	09:57:49	09:52:54	10:06:28	17
IM Florida	2008-11-01	00:53:16	05:05:50	03:23:00	09:26:46	09:48:24	10:15:34	4
IM Louisville	2008-08-27	00:55:04	05:16:36	04:31:34	10:48:27	10:44:12	10:44:12	10

Results for Jackie Arendt (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	01:01:08	05:50:17	03:24:15	10:21:02	10:22:26	10:05:01	22
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	00:54:07	05:22:03	03:18:50	09:40:28	09:51:21	09:58:45	2
IM Lake Placid	2011-07-24	00:57:20	05:30:50	03:22:27	09:56:21	09:58:37	10:02:40	4
IM St. George	2011-05-07				10:06:36	10:06:58	10:06:58	2

Results for Terra Castro (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	00:54:56	05:19:48	03:20:28	09:39:35	09:54:06	10:18:16	4
IM Louisville	2011-08-28	00:57:41	05:21:21	03:37:39	10:02:40	10:13:58	10:23:15	5
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	00:59:36	05:22:52	03:49:16	10:16:27	10:30:10	10:25:27	13
IM St. George	2010-05-01	00:59:19	06:01:35	03:28:08	10:33:57	10:29:10	10:24:20	6
IM Arizona	2009-11-22	00:58:57	05:13:36	03:16:57	09:33:19	09:43:45	10:23:08	6
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	01:01:36	05:38:16	03:42:43	10:26:55	10:32:31	10:34:16	11
IM Wisconsin	2008-09-07	00:57:41	05:40:54	03:31:34	10:17:58	10:18:37	10:34:51	8
IM Arizona	2008-04-13	00:58:59	05:33:34	03:37:44	10:15:23	10:19:55	10:40:44	11
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	01:03:12	05:53:31	04:20:22	11:24:06	11:23:56	10:50:42	43
IM Arizona	2007-04-15	00:57:06	05:36:31	03:39:18	10:18:18	10:21:55	10:27:13	5
IM Wisconsin	2005-09-11	00:59:00	05:42:17	04:03:42	10:53:03	10:35:36	10:35:36	7

Results for April Lea Gellatly (USA)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Lake Placid	2010-07-25	01:01:31	05:40:46	03:41:02	10:28:52	10:33:33	10:33:50	12
IM Cozumel	2009-11-29	00:50:59	05:34:51	03:30:39	10:01:40	10:08:13	10:33:59	6
IM Lake Placid	2009-07-26	00:56:49	05:45:14	03:50:54	10:38:05	10:38:34	10:53:47	10
IM Arizona	2008-11-23	00:57:54	05:25:42	07:07:21	13:38:21	13:48:54	13:00:16	16
IM Wisconsin	2006-09-10	00:59:18	05:52:25	04:44:32	11:44:40	11:28:36	11:28:36	13

Results for Tatiana Vertiz ()

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Cozumel	2011-11-27	00:54:48	05:34:32	03:38:34	10:15:06	10:30:30	10:57:09	9
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28	00:00:00	00:00:00	00:00:00	11:19:14	11:32:40	11:32:40	13

Results for Amanda McKenzie (AUS)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene	2012-06-24	01:05:55	06:11:01	04:00:33	11:22:40	11:25:58	11:11:39	8
IM Cairns	2012-06-02	01:07:03	05:42:05	04:26:47	11:24:12	11:33:09	11:08:08	8
IM Brasil	2011-05-29				10:37:24	11:01:31	11:00:11	11
IM Brasil	2010-05-30	00:56:33	05:27:47	04:08:51	10:33:12	10:53:14	10:59:46	11
IM Louisville	2009-08-28	01:04:15	05:36:20	03:54:35	10:41:45	10:45:36	11:01:46	10
IM Florida	2008-11-01	01:02:18	05:11:35	03:51:11	10:09:38	10:32:54	11:07:02	9
IM Canada	2008-08-24	01:02:51	05:44:48	04:19:42	11:13:05	11:21:41	11:18:53	16
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	00:55:13	05:40:19	04:10:35	10:53:05	11:02:01	11:17:31	13
IM Canada	2007-08-26	01:00:49	05:44:15	04:06:32	10:56:14	10:58:22	11:29:01	19
IM UK	2005-08-21	01:00:10	06:26:14	05:07:21	12:41:57	12:23:43	12:23:43	8

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Canada is one of the slower courses with a course rating of 3:14, just a little bit faster than Kona. Last years winners were Jordan Rapp (8:28:09) and Mary Beth Ellis (9:03:13). The course records are held by Jordan Rapp (8:25:13, 2009) and Mary Beth Ellis (9:03:13, 2011), with Meredith Kessler having the fastest swim I could find (49:59, 2010).

IM Canada is a “only” a 1.000 points race, and (together with IM Louisville) is the last chance to get qualifying points for Kona 2012.

Male Participants

Last year’s winner Jordan Rapp finally committed to race in Kona this year, so he is not back to defend his title. The highest ranked athlete on the start list is Christian Brader from Germany:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Christian Brader	GER	08:57:42	09:00:56	143
2	Matthew Russell	USA	09:02:22	09:05:38	173
3	Matthew Sheeks	USA	09:12:17	09:15:37	241
4	Scott Curry	CAN	09:12:21	09:15:41	242
5	Christopher Bagg	USA	09:15:58	09:19:19	279
6	Olly Piggin	CAN	09:22:23	09:25:46	326
7	Kyle Marcotte	CAN	09:23:11	09:26:34	331
8	Lewis Elliot	USA	09:31:27	09:34:53	394
9	Anthony Toth	CAN	09:34:21	09:37:48	410
10	Luke Way	CAN	09:45:19	09:48:50	491
11	Andrew Powell		10:01:46	10:05:23	592
12	Ryan Borger		n/a	unrated	n/a
13	Nathan Killam		n/a	unrated	n/a
14	Shanon Stallard	NZL	n/a	unrated	n/a
15	Derek Garcia		n/a	unrated	n/a

He’s also the one with the best winning odds:

• Christian Brader: 33%
• Matthew Russell: 17%
• Kyle Marcotte: 15%
• Christopher Bagg: 14%

Female Participants

On the female side, there two “big” names on the start list: Samantha McGlone (coming back from a long break) and Meredith Kessler.

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Samantha McGlone	USA	09:27:08	09:30:33	16
2	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:31:29	09:34:55	25
3	Mackenzie Madison	USA	09:34:24	09:37:52	33
4	Janelle Morrison	CAN	09:54:29	09:58:04	88
5	Paolina Allan	CAN	10:05:09	10:08:48	121
6	Rachel Kiers	CAN	10:14:15	10:17:57	155
7	Marilyn McDonald	CAN	10:17:20	10:21:03	167
8	Stephanie Ossenbrink	CAN	10:24:00	10:27:45	186
9	Gillian Clayton	CAN	10:25:49	10:29:35	190
10	Trish Deim	USA	10:33:47	10:37:36	206
11	Alexis Smith		n/a	unrated	n/a
12	Brenda Lomax		n/a	unrated	n/a
13	Monica Dalidowicz		n/a	unrated	n/a

While Samantha has the better rating, “MBK” (coming off two IM wins this season) has better winning odds:

• Meredith Kessler: 43%
• Samantha McGlone: 33%
• Mackenzie Madison: 19%