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IM France 2013 – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:47:22 04:35:42 02:53:39 08:21:51
2 Paul Amey GBR 00:48:46 04:55:50 02:52:15 08:42:48
3 Francois Chabaud FRA 00:48:53 04:48:21 03:02:02 08:45:23

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Tine Deckers BEL 00:57:18 05:10:03 03:02:31 09:16:05
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:52:10 05:20:04 03:07:14 09:26:25
3 Kristin Moeller GER 01:02:47 05:27:58 03:00:29 09:37:07

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:21:51 Frederik Van Lierde 2012-06-24
Swim overall 00:44:18 Gilles Reboul 2006-06-24
Bike overall 04:35:42 Frederik Van Lierde 2012-06-24
Run overall 02:42:08 Marcel Zamora 2010-06-27
Total female 09:16:05 Tine Deckers 2012-06-24
Swim female 00:48:59 Edith Niederfriniger 2006-06-24
Bike female 05:05:22 Christel Robin 2009-06-28
Run female 03:00:29 Kristin Moeller 2012-06-24

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM France is 05:41 with a pretty slow bike in the France Alps.

Race Adjustments for IM France

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 11:33 06:39 -01:10 03:33 13 11:33 06:39 -01:10 03:33
2007 05:27 00:28 00:07 09:44 32 08:30 03:34 -00:32 06:38
2008 03:26 -00:45 -01:58 02:30 32 06:49 02:08 -01:00 05:15
2009 06:13 -02:07 00:27 06:00 27 06:40 01:04 -00:39 05:26
2010 10:47 -02:19 -01:20 08:32 25 07:29 00:23 -00:47 06:04
2011 00:31 -00:28 -02:50 04:23 27 06:20 00:15 -01:07 05:47
2012 01:50 00:08 -04:08 05:29 18 05:41 00:14 -01:33 05:44

KPR points and Price Money

IM France has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
1 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:21:12 08:26:32 9 00:54:29 04:43:42 02:47:28
2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:22:38 08:27:59 12 00:47:44 04:38:13 02:58:15
3 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:24:30 08:29:52 15 00:47:34 04:46:14 02:50:31
4 Paul Amey GBR 08:34:44 08:40:13 41 00:49:50 04:44:50 03:03:24
5 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:34:56 08:40:25 43 00:47:47 04:43:20 03:08:35
6 Herve Faure FRA 08:40:08 08:45:40 68 00:50:52 04:49:07 03:01:14
7 Stanislav Krylov RUS 08:44:52 08:50:27 99 00:47:05 04:47:38 03:10:49
8 Bruno Clerbout BEL 08:52:47 08:58:27 133 00:51:01 04:59:18 02:59:49
9 Sergio Marques POR 08:54:41 09:00:22 154 00:55:29 05:00:31 03:00:20
10 Christian Nitschke GER 08:55:34 09:01:16 156 00:55:28 04:57:13 03:06:12
11 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:58:56 09:04:40 178 01:00:45 04:52:18 03:07:04
12 Olivier Marceau SUI 08:59:19 09:05:03 179 00:49:22 04:47:29 03:18:34
13 Michael Wetzel GER 09:02:40 09:08:26 196 00:55:28 04:58:28 03:10:18
14 Olivier Cardoen BEL 09:07:13 09:13:02 225 00:54:13 04:53:06 03:19:15
15 Jose Jeuland FRA 09:08:15 09:14:05 229 00:52:47 05:02:42 03:09:58
16 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:14:08 09:20:02 273 00:58:31 05:28:52 03:20:25
17 Anthony Pannier FRA 09:15:09 09:21:03 284 00:47:28 04:45:53 03:41:21
18 Teemu Kyllonen FIN 09:26:01 09:32:02 342 01:02:37 04:58:43 03:24:41
19 Pierre Dorez FRA 09:41:57 09:48:08 435 00:52:38 04:47:51 04:01:41
20 Ivan Tejero Vazquez ESP 09:45:48 09:52:02 455 00:49:33 05:17:05 03:41:46
21 Luca De Paolis ITA 09:46:09 09:52:23 458 01:02:30 04:52:46 03:45:39
22 Ari Saukko FIN 10:17:24 10:23:58 599 00:58:04 05:04:27 04:16:29
23 Ivan Kharin RUS 11:06:13 11:13:18 674 01:09:33 05:12:27 04:14:29
  Reto Stutz SUI n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
  Pascal Richter GER n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
  Ivan Jezko SVK n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
  Henrik Oftedal NOR n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
  Rod De Kanel FRA n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:09:30 09:15:21 00:51:11 05:08:38 03:12:38 3
2 Lucie Reed CZE 09:29:10 09:35:13 00:49:45 05:14:44 03:27:12 31
3 Lisa Ribes USA 09:41:08 09:47:19 01:05:04 05:19:12 03:19:43 64
4 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:56:23 10:02:44 00:56:09 05:29:17 03:34:48 106

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Last year’s winner Frederik Van Lierde is back to defend his title. He is my favorite even if great runner Bart Aernouts has a better rating (but a lot fewer races). Other contenders are Clemente Alonso-McKernan (was third in Germany last year), Mathias Hecht (always close to the front of the race) and IM Texas winner Paul Amey:

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 44% (1-1)
  • Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 30% (2-1)
  • Bart Aernouts: 8% (11-1)
  • Mathias Hecht: 8% (11-1)
  • Paul Amey: 7% (14-1)
  • Herve Faure: 2% (54-1)

Female Race Participants

The clear favorite on the women’s side is Mary Beth Ellis who is still unbeaten outside of Kona:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 65% (1-1)
  • Lucie Reed: 24% (3-1)
  • Lisa Ribes: 6% (15-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 2% (47-1)

Results for Bart Aernouts (BEL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 01:00:15 04:45:11 02:47:10 08:37:31 08:27:30 08:26:32 11
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:55:25 04:35:46 02:42:44 08:18:17 08:25:24 08:25:24 10

Results for Frederik Van Lierde (BEL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 00:51:36 04:35:25 02:52:49 08:24:09 08:14:24 08:27:59 3
IM France 2012-06-24 00:47:22 04:35:42 02:53:39 08:21:51 08:23:33 08:30:44 1
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:47:25 04:27:40 02:42:46 08:01:26 08:08:19 08:32:23 3
IM France 2011-06-26 00:50:10 04:42:00 02:51:08 08:28:30 08:28:59 08:38:51 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:51:34 04:39:23 02:56:27 08:31:43 08:31:16 08:41:36 14
IM France 2010-06-27 00:49:56 04:48:37 02:47:14 08:30:39 08:40:51 08:44:37 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:50:59 04:37:35 03:35:49 09:09:38 08:57:17 08:46:00 34
IM Austria 2009-07-05 00:47:31 04:32:25 03:01:43 08:26:58 08:41:22 08:41:10 5
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 00:47:58 04:35:59 03:06:48 08:34:34 08:44:16 08:41:01 9
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 00:47:09 04:43:43 02:56:19 08:31:35 08:37:01 08:37:01 2

Results for Clemente Alonso-McKernan (ESP)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2012-07-08 00:44:22 04:40:07 02:45:10 08:14:04 08:23:11 08:29:52 3
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 00:54:53 04:48:52 02:46:15 08:34:45 08:21:46 08:31:51 1
Challenge Barcelona 2011-10-02 00:48:26 04:27:31 02:55:29 08:15:25 08:24:11 08:35:46 1
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 00:51:04 04:51:38 02:41:58 08:27:56 08:36:39 08:41:30 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:51:04 04:49:41 02:58:29 08:48:53 08:37:00 08:45:40 17
IM France 2009-06-28 00:51:04 04:58:59 02:52:28 08:48:59 08:55:04 08:55:04 4

Results for Paul Amey (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2013-05-18 00:54:54 04:29:07 02:56:18 08:25:06 08:32:44 08:40:13 1
IM Arizona 2012-11-18 00:48:47 04:23:48 03:33:10 08:49:54 09:00:35 08:42:25 21
IM France 2012-06-24 00:48:46 04:55:50 02:52:15 08:42:48 08:44:35 08:36:13 2
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:48:47 04:22:37 02:45:55 08:01:29 08:13:33 08:32:35 2
IM France 2011-06-26 00:51:30 04:55:41 02:54:57 08:47:04 08:47:35 08:43:37 4
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 00:50:23 04:46:16 02:46:53 08:27:20 08:36:54 08:39:22 7
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:51:45 04:56:53 02:56:02 08:48:58 08:41:56 08:41:56 16

Results for Mathias Hecht (SWI)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2012-11-18 00:48:34 04:41:08 03:05:46 08:41:15 08:51:46 08:40:25 14
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 00:50:24 04:42:50 03:05:36 08:42:08 08:47:47 08:38:45 3
IM Texas 2012-05-19 00:48:54 04:18:17 03:11:29 08:22:58 08:31:03 08:37:23 3
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 00:51:11 04:35:20 03:01:59 08:30:26 08:39:12 08:38:27 3
IM St. George 2011-05-07       08:32:03 08:22:51 08:38:21 1
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 00:47:19 04:48:22 03:04:19 08:45:36 08:42:28 08:40:59 3
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 00:47:44 04:33:52 03:03:18 08:28:53 08:33:47 08:40:42 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:50:54 04:37:32 03:04:47 08:37:29 08:25:51 08:41:56 13
IM Germany 2009-07-05       08:11:56 08:32:14 08:44:50 5
IM Australia 2009-04-05 00:48:12 04:48:58 03:30:51 09:08:03 09:10:43 08:47:21 11
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:51:42 04:36:55 03:01:13 08:34:02 08:27:12 08:42:00 8
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 00:48:15 04:55:42 03:07:07 08:56:33 08:54:05 08:45:41 3
IM Australia 2008-04-06 00:47:44 04:46:09 03:08:54 08:42:47 08:42:54 08:43:07 3
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 00:48:13 04:34:12 03:08:36 08:32:47 08:48:27 08:43:12 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 00:53:58 04:47:49 03:07:46 08:54:16 08:49:26 08:40:50 33
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 00:47:44 04:40:11 02:56:19 08:26:01 08:37:12 08:35:45 1
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 00:50:36 04:45:51 02:55:47 08:32:14 08:34:02 08:34:02 3

Results for Herve Faure (FRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2013-04-14 00:52:47 04:34:20 03:02:48 08:34:20 08:39:39 08:45:40 6
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 00:50:23 05:07:02 03:01:28 09:05:28 08:58:27 08:50:01 7
IM France 2009-06-28 00:53:16 04:48:35 02:54:26 08:40:55 08:46:54 08:46:09 2
IM France 2008-06-22 00:50:37 04:53:23 02:52:14 08:41:40 08:44:59 08:45:44 2
IM France 2006-06-24 00:44:21 04:57:48 02:48:57 08:36:04 08:47:06 08:46:15 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 00:54:26 04:46:22 03:00:23 08:45:45 08:42:37 08:45:42 22
IM France 2005-06-19 00:50:27 04:57:51 03:00:48 08:49:06 08:49:06 08:49:06 1

Results for Stanislav Krylov (RUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 00:47:54 04:34:57 03:06:04 08:31:22 08:50:27 08:50:27 9

Results for Bruno Clerbout (BEL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Los Cabos 2013-03-17 00:51:42 05:11:45 02:55:03 09:02:50 08:59:40 08:58:27 12
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 00:55:22 04:55:32 02:51:54 08:46:44 08:36:33 08:58:15 16
IM France 2012-06-24 00:51:34 05:01:10 02:48:16 08:46:54 08:48:41 09:02:05 4
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 00:51:17 04:42:14 02:59:18 08:47:07 08:57:12 09:04:40 8
IM Wales 2011-09-11 00:47:11 05:22:33 02:49:11 09:08:00 08:38:09 09:06:08 3
IM St. George 2011-05-07       09:37:12 09:26:50 09:12:27 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 00:51:56 04:52:27 03:24:11 09:13:33 09:25:26 09:08:45 22
IM France 2010-06-27 00:52:18 05:01:10 02:54:28 08:53:15 09:03:54 09:03:54 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:55:06 04:54:12 03:01:01 08:55:11 08:43:09 09:03:54 24
IM France 2009-06-28 00:53:16 05:05:58 02:53:10 08:58:02 09:04:13 09:12:09 6
IM France 2008-06-22 00:51:12 05:12:31 03:13:32 09:22:52 09:26:27 09:16:45 11
IM France 2007-06-24 00:50:20 04:56:40 02:53:59 08:46:30 08:51:49 09:09:23 4
IM France 2006-06-24 00:47:38 05:18:25 03:09:08 09:20:48 09:32:47 09:32:47 9

Results for Sergio Marques (POR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 01:01:29 05:27:24 03:05:10 09:38:58 09:27:46 09:00:22 37
IM Sweden 2012-08-18 00:53:17 04:31:35 02:48:20 08:16:21 08:42:44 08:58:07 7
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 00:55:40 04:54:05 02:50:45 08:43:12 08:48:52 08:59:25 4
IM France 2012-06-24 00:55:26 05:02:02 02:45:39 08:48:55 08:50:43 09:00:23 5
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 00:54:42 05:10:14 02:51:33 09:02:58 08:46:17 09:01:19 3
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:56:00 04:41:28 03:12:23 08:54:14 09:01:52 09:02:54 20
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 01:04:50 05:10:46 02:58:22 09:18:26 09:18:24 09:03:00 33
IM Germany 2011-07-24 00:54:17 04:54:44 03:04:49 08:57:53 09:04:22 09:01:20 16
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 00:58:03 04:57:03 02:50:48 08:48:01 08:57:05 09:00:59 6
IM France 2011-06-26 00:54:20 05:01:38 02:48:32 08:49:55 08:50:26 09:01:29 5
IM Texas 2011-05-21 01:01:20 04:38:38 03:04:42 08:48:57 08:58:01 09:03:04 12
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 00:56:00 04:41:44 03:27:55 09:09:30 09:20:23 09:03:52 15
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 00:57:30 04:53:07 03:08:56 09:05:04 09:01:15 09:00:49 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 00:54:40 05:05:50 03:07:29 09:11:10 09:02:08 09:00:44 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 01:02:50 05:31:26 02:59:17 09:41:02 09:27:58 09:00:27 60
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 00:55:56 05:16:41 02:49:13 09:08:38 08:59:27 08:54:47 8
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:59:07 05:31:38 03:09:32 09:47:16 09:39:27 08:53:44 57
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 00:58:25 04:52:26 03:04:14 08:59:16 08:50:26 08:43:00 3
IM Florida 2007-11-03 00:53:26 04:40:45 02:46:00 08:23:49 08:42:02 08:40:50 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 00:53:05 04:51:06 02:47:38 08:36:05 08:45:25 08:40:28 7
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 01:01:42 04:50:31 02:43:55 08:40:32 08:35:49 08:38:36 19
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 00:53:35 04:45:36 02:48:04 08:31:26 08:33:56 08:39:50 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 01:02:32 04:45:52 02:51:11 08:43:45 08:40:38 08:43:29 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 00:55:22 04:53:18 02:54:14 08:46:47 08:46:47 08:46:47 3

Results for Christian Nitschke (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:58:40 04:47:28 03:09:18 08:59:56 09:13:28 09:01:16 29
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 00:51:21 05:10:55 02:56:23 09:05:34 08:54:57 08:53:35 7
Challenge Barcelona 2010-10-03 00:55:13 04:36:40 03:02:34 08:37:53 08:51:56 08:51:56 12

Results for Mike Schifferle (SUI)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2013-05-18 01:04:22 04:33:37 03:10:37 08:56:06 09:04:12 09:04:40 9
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 01:07:58 04:56:08 02:56:09 09:06:47 08:56:12 09:04:42 29
IM New York 2012-08-11 00:45:48 04:45:40 03:06:56 08:45:02 08:51:56 09:05:13 12
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 01:02:09 04:47:39 02:56:12 08:50:16 08:56:01 09:06:02 6
IM Germany 2012-07-08 00:58:09 04:47:23 02:53:06 08:45:12 08:54:53 09:06:40 12
IM France 2012-06-24 01:00:11 04:57:22 02:58:22 09:07:08 09:08:59 09:07:28 9
IM Regensburg 2012-06-17 01:00:24 04:40:13 02:50:52 08:36:53 08:42:28 09:07:22 3
IM Texas 2012-05-19 01:02:52 04:41:43 03:00:06 08:51:57 09:00:29 09:09:17 12
IM St. George 2012-04-29 01:04:31 06:30:15 03:13:28 10:54:44 09:59:13 09:09:59 9
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 00:59:39 04:32:12 03:14:40 09:01:18 09:11:39 09:05:43 12
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:58:55 04:31:36 03:05:31 08:41:48 08:54:53 09:05:13 20
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 01:07:05 04:37:31 02:59:09 08:49:01 08:48:59 09:06:09 26
IM Wales 2011-09-11 00:55:32 05:15:27 03:00:47 09:23:55 08:53:12 09:07:48 7
IM Germany 2011-07-24 01:00:30 04:46:31 03:01:18 08:54:20 09:00:46 09:09:19 15
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 01:01:55 04:48:57 03:00:19 08:53:57 09:03:07 09:10:16 8
IM Brasil 2011-05-29       08:53:07 09:15:39 09:11:08 10
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 01:04:29 04:36:19 03:17:53 09:04:02 09:14:49 09:10:32 14
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 00:59:58 04:31:31 03:11:46 08:47:53 08:59:13 09:09:54 11
IM Florida 2010-11-06 01:00:42 04:45:31 03:13:54 09:09:02 09:20:33 09:11:32 21
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 01:02:00 04:44:49 03:05:08 08:58:35 08:58:18 09:09:55 7
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 01:01:30 04:33:33 03:09:53 08:49:42 09:03:03 09:12:20 8
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25       08:43:51 08:50:55 09:14:40 8
IM Austria 2010-07-04 00:57:29 04:44:36 03:07:35 08:54:57 09:05:39 09:22:36 17
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 01:04:21 04:40:26 03:05:12 08:54:13 09:06:13 09:30:54 12
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 01:00:19 05:17:48 03:34:21 10:00:35 09:47:21 09:45:21 20
IM UK 2006-08-16 00:53:30 05:08:41 03:27:59 09:34:59 09:45:05 09:44:25 14
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 00:56:29 04:54:43 03:25:29 09:19:56 09:32:19 09:44:01 15
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 00:57:58 05:12:05 03:50:02 10:03:46 09:59:28 09:59:28 24

Results for Olivier Marceau (SUI)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2010-06-27 00:52:17 04:55:01 02:59:40 08:52:25 09:03:03 09:05:03 3
IM France 2009-06-28 00:51:11 04:45:00 03:11:50 08:52:53 08:59:01 09:06:26 5
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 00:46:57 04:31:35 03:36:44 08:59:09 09:14:22 09:14:22 8

Results for Michael Wetzel (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2013-05-18 00:53:46 05:15:15 03:04:02 09:19:16 09:00:46 09:08:26 6
IM South Africa 2013-04-14 00:57:44 04:53:13 03:10:11 09:05:44 09:11:23 09:09:39 14
IM Arizona 2012-11-18 00:57:10 04:52:00 03:07:16 09:00:52 09:11:47 09:09:20 24
IM Wales 2012-09-16 00:51:18 05:20:47 02:55:28 09:15:12 09:13:11 09:08:51 6
IM New York 2012-08-11 00:45:07 04:52:58 03:09:40 08:51:26 08:58:25 09:07:51 14
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 00:59:07 04:52:52 03:06:57 09:01:31 09:07:23 09:10:35 10
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 01:05:31 05:04:58 03:09:47 09:26:33 09:12:15 09:11:51 12
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 00:54:55 04:45:45 03:11:59 09:07:02 09:17:29 09:11:37 15
IM Germany 2011-07-24 00:54:07 04:54:58 03:05:39 08:58:40 09:05:09 09:05:09 17

Results for Olivier Cardoen (BEL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 00:58:49 04:46:16 03:18:35 09:07:48 09:13:02 09:13:02 18

Results for Jose Jeuland (FRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2012-06-24 00:50:35 05:02:23 02:54:30 08:53:52 08:55:41 09:14:05 6
IM France 2011-06-26 00:51:32 05:05:03 03:19:01 09:21:08 09:21:40 09:18:42 11
IM France 2010-06-27 00:54:47 05:04:43 03:00:42 09:05:46 09:16:40 09:18:01 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 00:52:54 05:18:08 03:22:51 09:39:51 09:38:53 09:18:18 13
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 00:51:51 04:35:01 02:54:43 08:26:51 08:47:26 09:14:19 14
IM France 2009-06-28 00:56:18 05:21:30 02:52:31 09:18:38 09:25:03 09:20:40 10
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 00:52:26 04:54:50 02:57:35 08:51:29 09:01:30 09:19:20 14
IM France 2008-06-22 00:53:52 04:52:51 03:01:06 08:53:34 08:56:58 09:25:28 4
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 00:59:17 05:03:25 03:50:43 09:59:52 09:57:45 09:37:58 19
IM France 2007-06-24 00:54:34 05:04:52 03:03:27 09:09:14 09:14:47 09:27:19 9
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 00:57:02 05:31:14 03:18:17 09:53:16 09:40:12 09:40:12 17

Results for Paul Hawkins (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wales 2012-09-16 00:47:18 05:27:45 03:00:24 09:23:25 09:21:22 09:20:02 10
IM UK 2012-07-22 00:52:39 05:02:38 03:11:18 09:10:50 09:06:03 09:19:29 3
IM UK 2011-07-31 00:48:02 05:14:17 02:57:50 09:03:41 09:12:16 09:28:24 7
IM France 2010-06-27 01:26:28 07:20:24 05:09:34 14:16:23 14:33:30 09:44:33 19
IM UK 2009-08-02 00:57:42 05:14:37 03:10:13 09:28:35 09:30:03 09:44:33 10
IM UK 2008-09-07 00:51:33 05:20:08 03:51:03 10:06:40 10:03:20 11:52:20 12
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 01:22:10 07:03:42 05:23:34 14:00:55 14:26:36 14:29:43 25
IM France 2006-06-24 01:08:44 07:32:31 05:17:00 14:15:35 14:33:53 14:33:53 23

Results for Anthony Pannier (FRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2012-06-24 00:47:22 04:50:06 03:35:43 09:19:09 09:21:03 09:21:03 12

Results for Teemu Kyllonen (FIN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Sweden 2012-08-18 01:02:26 04:37:24 03:17:19 09:03:10 09:32:02 09:32:02 19

Results for Pierre Dorez (FRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2012-06-24 00:52:31 04:52:05 03:55:32 09:46:09 09:48:08 09:48:08 14

Results for Ivan Tejero Vazquez (ESP)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Los Cabos 2013-03-17 00:51:44 05:18:08 03:19:52 09:34:27 09:31:06 09:52:02 16
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 00:52:11 05:16:42 07:59:01 14:12:34 14:20:43 10:01:35 35
IM Wales 2011-09-11 00:46:23 05:45:48 03:23:57 10:07:57 09:34:50 10:01:35 15
IM Germany 2011-07-24 00:49:12 05:07:34 03:46:55 09:49:31 09:56:37 10:12:46 25
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 00:47:48 05:27:13 04:12:45 10:35:24 10:23:02 10:23:37 14
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 00:50:31 05:48:58 03:45:51 10:35:18 10:24:40 10:24:40 30

Results for Luca De Paolis (ITA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 01:00:42 04:39:53 03:44:27 09:41:16 09:52:23 09:52:23 27

Results for Ari Saukko (FIN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Sweden 2012-08-18 00:57:54 04:42:43 04:07:15 09:52:29 10:23:58 10:23:58 20

Results for Ivan Kharin (RUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 01:15:12 05:01:03 03:27:37 09:47:23 10:09:18 11:13:18 49
IM Sweden 2012-08-18 01:12:45 04:46:16 05:22:17 11:26:25 12:02:54 11:35:53 22
IM Germany 2012-07-08 01:01:44 05:12:44 03:33:59 09:56:06 10:07:06 11:21:54 22
IM Austria 2012-07-01 01:09:31 04:56:48 06:14:11 12:27:28 12:37:06 12:37:06 24

Results for Reto Stutz (SUI)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Pascal Richter (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Ivan Jezko (SVK)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Henrik Oftedal (NOR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Rod De kanel (FRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Mary Beth Ellis (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 00:54:36 05:05:26 03:11:17 09:15:38 09:20:56 09:15:21 1
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 00:56:06 05:08:06 03:10:30 09:22:57 09:12:04 09:14:20 5
IM New York 2012-08-11 00:40:33 05:04:03 03:14:32 09:02:48 09:09:56 09:14:49 1
IM Texas 2012-05-19 00:53:32 04:45:52 03:11:09 08:54:58 09:03:33 09:16:03 1
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 00:55:54 05:19:14 03:13:48 09:34:06 09:34:04 09:19:55 15
IM Canada 2011-08-28 00:53:36 04:54:21 03:12:09 09:03:13 09:05:16 09:14:56 1
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 00:49:20 05:17:16 03:06:45 09:18:55 09:31:32 09:19:54 1
IM Austria 2011-07-03 00:48:07 04:48:10 03:01:29 08:43:34 09:07:57 09:07:57 1

Results for Lucie Reed (CZE)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2013-04-14 00:52:17 05:11:31 03:18:59 09:27:07 09:32:59 09:35:13 3
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:47:31 05:05:30 03:30:24 09:26:20 09:39:38 09:35:45 7
IM Germany 2011-07-24 00:47:59 05:06:20 03:15:31 09:13:46 09:20:26 09:34:51 2
IM Brasil 2011-05-29       09:14:23 09:37:49 09:37:56 2
Challenge Barcelona 2010-10-03 00:52:48 04:47:29 03:29:29 09:13:47 09:28:49 09:37:57 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:50:58 05:24:21 03:45:06 10:04:42 09:51:06 09:40:26 22
IM Austria 2009-07-05 00:47:32 04:58:05 03:17:25 09:07:24 09:22:57 09:37:42 3
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 00:47:40 04:58:42 03:26:17 09:16:32 09:32:15 09:42:19 1
IM Austria 2008-07-13 00:48:33 05:04:04 03:15:27 09:13:17 09:31:19 09:46:27 5
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 00:50:00 05:07:29 03:34:08 09:34:09 09:46:52 09:54:01 3
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 00:48:02 05:14:49 03:25:04 09:32:05 09:45:16 10:00:16 5
IM South Africa 2006-03-18       10:19:32 10:16:28 10:16:28 4

Results for Lisa Ribes (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Los Cabos 2013-03-17 01:04:23 05:21:41 03:07:15 09:38:35 09:35:13 09:47:19 3
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 01:08:37 05:04:46 03:24:19 09:41:55 09:56:30 09:56:44 14
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 01:05:34 05:16:09 03:27:31 09:52:41 09:57:01 09:57:01 7

Results for Jeanne Collonge (FRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:58:47 05:21:24 03:30:16 09:57:26 10:12:24 10:02:44 22
IM France 2011-06-26 00:55:10 05:23:24 03:39:26 10:04:05 10:04:40 09:56:49 6
IM Florida 2010-11-06 00:55:06 05:14:38 03:19:24 09:35:19 09:47:23 09:47:23 6

IM Cairns 2013 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, IM Cairns was a pretty slow course this year – an adjustment of 1:16 leading to a new course rating of 2:44. This year, especially the run was slower than normal (-4:19, with a new run rating of -1:48).

Male Race Results

Luke McKenzie took control of the race on the bike, posting a 4:21 split that was 14 minutes quicker than Clayton Fettel’s (who then struggled on the run). With the 2.000 points from Cairns, he should now be pretty safe for a Kona slot. Tim Berkel managed to run a 2:44 – 15 minutes quicker thank Luke’s solid 3:01 marathon, but never really challenging for the win. Macca posted a second best run (2:54) and validated his “automatic” Kona slot – he probably can’t have asked for much more after his hospital visit for kidney issues earlier in the week. However, if he wants to contend in Kona, he needs to work on his bike endurance so he can again race with the very best.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Luke McKenzie AUS 00:49:47 04:21:52 03:01:32 08:17:43 08:43:27
2 Tim Berkel AUS 00:52:25 04:40:57 02:44:24 08:22:16 08:46:57
3 Chris McCormack AUS 00:49:55 04:43:38 02:54:52 08:32:50 08:29:52
4 Jason Shortis AUS 00:58:31 04:38:36 02:55:47 08:38:21 08:55:34
5 Clayton Fettell AUS 00:47:53 04:35:36 03:13:16 08:41:42 08:29:08
6 Matty White AUS 00:51:14 04:42:07 03:12:50 08:51:18 08:48:32
7 Todd Israel AUS 00:51:19 04:39:24 03:22:51 08:58:38 09:02:38
8 Simon Cochrane NZL 00:52:26 04:56:55 03:11:38 09:05:48 09:12:15
9 Johan Borg AUS 00:56:21 04:45:20 03:22:40 09:09:38 09:10:05
10 Matt Randall NZL 01:05:48 04:50:55 03:46:33 09:49:14 n/a

Female Race Results

On the women’s side, we saw another IM rookie win with Liz Blatchford outrunning veteran Gina Crawford:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Liz Blatchford GBR 00:54:13 05:10:23 03:09:38 09:19:51 n/a
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:55:43 05:08:26 03:13:09 09:23:14 09:25:15
3 Stephanie Jones USA 01:06:41 05:04:09 03:15:17 09:31:46 10:04:43
4 Anna Ross NZL 01:02:25 05:08:56 03:29:06 09:46:28 09:41:27
5 Beth Walsh USA 01:06:46 05:23:37 03:19:42 09:55:23 09:47:28
6 Michelle Gailey AUS 00:58:06 05:25:13 03:42:14 10:11:52 09:38:01

IM Cairns 2013 – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 David Dellow AUS 00:47:56 04:33:45 02:48:26 08:15:04
2 Cameron Brown NZL 00:50:46 04:30:48 02:56:06 08:22:21
3 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 00:50:37 04:41:29 02:52:32 08:29:36

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Carrie Lester AUS 00:56:31 05:05:20 03:13:52 09:21:00
2 Belinda Harper NZL 00:53:00 05:00:37 03:23:02 09:22:42
3 Candice Hammond NZL 01:00:53 05:07:22 03:10:26 09:24:45

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:04 David Dellow 2012-06-02
Swim overall 00:43:48 Clayton Fettell 2011-06-05
Bike overall 04:30:48 Cameron Brown 2012-06-02
Run overall 02:48:26 David Dellow 2012-06-02
Total female 09:21:00 Carrie Lester 2012-06-02
Swim female 00:52:56 Belinda Granger 2011-06-05
Bike female 05:00:37 Belinda Harper 2012-06-02
Run female 03:10:26 Candice Hammond 2012-06-02

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cairns is 04:11.

Race Adjustments for IM Cairns

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 04:45 01:36 02:34 -01:07 11 04:45 01:36 02:34 -01:07
2012 03:38 -01:22 06:44 -00:24 20 04:11 00:07 04:39 -00:46

KPR points and Price Money

IM Cairns has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has an official prize purse of 100.000 €.

Male Race Participants

According to the start list, Cairns will be an interesting race. My favorite is Cameron Brown – he is still one of the best Ironman athletes (even after not winning IM New Zealand this year), but he DNF’d in Melbourne and I’m not sure if he is properly recovered and rebuilt. Then there are Clayton Fettell (who hasn’t finished an Ironman since 2011) and Chris McCormack (who hasn’t had a great result since returning to Ironman racing after his Olympic quest but recently won a half distance Challenge race in Rimini).

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:23:40 08:27:36 10 00:49:26 04:41:28 02:53:31
2 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:26:47 08:30:45 17 00:45:00 04:37:02 03:07:23
3 Chris McCormack AUS 08:27:40 08:31:38 17 00:48:44 04:43:14 02:54:34
4 Courtney Ogden AUS 08:40:12 08:44:16 60 00:50:32 04:49:50 03:00:05
5 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:40:34 08:44:38 62 00:47:14 04:40:56 03:13:21
6 Brett Carter AUS 08:45:12 08:49:18 90 00:47:29 04:51:43 03:07:11
7 Jason Shortis AUS 08:52:59 08:57:09 127 00:54:00 04:51:42 03:03:12
8 Todd Israel AUS 08:59:43 09:03:56 172 00:50:26 05:00:55 03:10:58
9 Johan Borg AUS 09:07:49 09:12:06 217 00:55:01 04:56:57 03:16:45
10 Simon Cochrane NZL 09:10:08 09:14:26 229 00:53:25 05:05:12 03:10:00
11 Yeun Sik Ham KOR 09:34:02 09:38:31 373 01:04:05 05:09:32 02:55:00
12 Dan Brown PHI 09:40:32 09:45:04 417 01:01:41 unrated unrated
Matt Randall NZL n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Jemani Francis AUS n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Timothy Molesworth AUS n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated

Female Race Participants

On the female side, the big favorite is Gina Crawford who should be able to win the race if she is in a half-decent form. She also has raced a lot of races earlier in the year, and you’ll never know until late in the race if she is properly recovered.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Gina Crawford NZL 09:22:49 09:27:13 00:52:06 05:14:52 03:13:50 15
2 Michelle Gailey AUS 09:34:48 09:39:18 00:54:08 05:37:42 03:13:28 39
3 Michelle Bremer NZL 09:37:48 09:42:19 00:57:21 05:17:18 03:26:59 49
4 Anna Ross NZL 09:39:22 09:43:54 00:59:14 05:23:36 03:16:13 55
5 Beth Walsh USA 09:43:51 09:48:25 01:01:52 05:33:52 03:07:56 65
6 Stephanie Jones USA 10:01:36 10:06:18 01:06:55 05:23:35 03:29:27 117
Michelle Wu AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Liz Blatchford GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Cameron Brown: 43% (1-1)
  • Chris McCormack: 26% (3-1)
  • Clayton Fettell: 10% (9-1)
  • Courtney Ogden: 9% (10-1)
  • Luke McKenzie: 8% (11-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Gina Crawford: 66% (1-1)
  • Michelle Gailey: 14% (6-1)
  • Michelle Bremer: 10% (9-1)
  • Stephanie Jones: 5% (20-1)
  • Beth Walsh: 5% (21-1)

Results for Cameron Brown (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2013-03-02 00:50:09 04:41:52 02:57:16 08:34:28 08:38:50 08:27:36 3
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:47:37 04:31:50 02:47:30 08:10:05 08:21:41 08:26:04 4
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 00:50:46 04:30:48 02:56:06 08:22:21 08:25:43 08:26:38 2
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:50:37 04:24:48 02:41:17 08:00:12 08:07:07 08:26:46 2
IM Germany 2011-07-24 00:48:07 04:48:30 02:51:02 08:31:47 08:38:03 08:29:50 7
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 00:50:21 04:43:04 02:52:09 08:31:07 08:28:19 08:28:37 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:52:16 04:38:41 02:59:15 08:34:10 08:33:47 08:28:40 17
IM Germany 2010-07-04 00:48:04 04:33:50 02:53:04 08:18:33 08:26:51 08:27:51 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 00:49:28 04:40:29 02:47:35 08:21:52 08:28:07 08:28:01 1
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:52:50 04:44:52 03:12:07 08:53:41 08:41:00 08:28:00 22
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 00:47:58 04:42:36 02:43:10 08:18:05 08:26:02 08:25:28 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:51:50 04:36:47 02:53:39 08:26:17 08:20:14 08:25:21 5
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:08:29 08:31:48 08:26:27 4
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 00:47:18 04:43:15 02:49:36 08:24:49 08:30:20 08:25:07 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 00:47:53 04:48:08 02:51:10 08:26:33 08:30:56 08:23:37 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 00:53:55 04:29:26 02:58:05 08:25:22 08:20:52 08:21:36 8
IM Germany 2006-07-23 08:13:40 08:24:36 08:21:50 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 00:52:23 04:33:08 02:50:13 08:19:36 08:16:37 08:20:37 2
IM Germany 2005-07-11 08:28:00 08:25:16 08:22:50 2
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 00:46:24 04:40:47 02:48:28 08:20:15 08:20:15 08:20:15 1

Results for Clayton Fettell (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 00:45:11 04:25:25 03:04:40 08:19:02 08:22:04 08:30:45 2
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 00:43:48 04:38:15 03:10:59 08:36:14 08:40:46 08:40:46 5

Results for Chris McCormack (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2013-01-19 00:55:07 04:58:44 02:59:52 08:58:05 08:55:11 08:31:38 3
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 00:50:05 04:58:10 03:11:10 09:05:12 09:08:52 08:26:38 9
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 00:47:26 04:34:56 02:51:00 08:15:56 08:20:18 08:17:33 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:51:36 04:31:51 02:43:31 08:10:37 08:10:15 08:17:01 1
IM Germany 2010-07-04 00:47:54 04:33:33 02:49:56 08:14:43 08:22:57 08:18:18 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:52:51 04:32:45 02:55:59 08:25:20 08:13:19 08:17:19 4
IM Germany 2009-07-05 08:03:05 08:23:16 08:18:09 3
IM Germany 2008-07-06 07:59:55 08:22:50 08:16:55 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 00:51:48 04:37:32 02:42:02 08:15:34 08:13:47 08:15:37 1
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 00:49:45 04:16:31 02:45:12 07:54:23 08:13:47 08:16:01 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 00:53:51 04:29:24 02:46:02 08:13:07 08:08:43 08:16:34 2
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 00:46:53 04:26:25 02:44:54 08:00:52 08:11:56 08:18:36 1
IM Australia 2006-05-11 00:46:21 04:46:51 02:47:30 08:20:42 08:21:22 08:20:39 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 00:53:06 04:37:06 02:49:10 08:23:52 08:20:52 08:20:21 6
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 00:47:33 04:23:07 02:45:33 07:58:45 08:14:44 08:20:04 1
IM Australia 2005-04-08 00:46:55 04:40:17 02:58:32 08:25:44 08:25:44 08:25:44 1

Results for Courtney Ogden (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2013-03-02 00:50:15 04:44:14 02:58:24 08:38:53 08:43:18 08:44:16 4
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:50:40 04:55:14 04:32:54 10:23:45 10:32:44 08:44:26 34
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 00:51:38 05:04:45 03:07:37 09:08:42 09:02:01 08:44:26 4
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 00:57:14 04:40:35 02:55:28 08:38:11 08:38:13 08:41:56 16
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:49:56 08:53:21 08:42:30 5
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 09:07:25 08:41:39 08:40:51 2
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 00:49:05 04:28:51 02:52:53 08:14:01 08:19:55 08:40:43 1
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:52:36 04:41:17 03:03:52 08:42:11 08:41:48 08:44:36 25
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 00:53:47 04:44:35 02:56:29 08:38:17 08:45:09 08:45:13 2
IM Australia 2010-03-28 08:35:54 08:44:02 08:45:14 3
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 00:48:33 04:36:37 02:56:54 08:22:06 08:35:48 08:45:37 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 00:50:43 04:49:50 03:00:20 08:44:37 08:48:35 08:49:26 3
IM Canada 2008-08-24 00:53:26 04:44:15 03:05:21 08:47:04 08:57:05 08:49:54 8
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 00:48:38 04:33:43 02:56:54 08:19:15 08:41:37 08:44:41 7
IM Canada 2006-08-27 00:51:52 04:45:18 03:06:00 08:47:46 08:49:05 08:49:05 2

Results for Luke McKenzie (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 00:50:19 04:35:12 03:16:58 08:45:57 08:50:45 08:44:38 12
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 00:51:29 04:39:09 03:20:32 08:54:58 08:44:58 08:43:47 24
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 00:47:34 04:43:10 03:28:03 09:03:44 09:07:03 08:43:36 11
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 00:51:47 04:24:15 03:05:54 08:25:42 08:25:44 08:40:19 9
IM Germany 2011-07-24 00:47:14 04:33:43 03:01:04 08:26:51 08:33:04 08:42:35 6
IM Texas 2011-05-21 00:49:25 04:27:01 03:31:36 08:52:07 09:01:13 08:44:12 13
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 00:42:26 04:29:01 02:56:10 08:07:38 08:27:59 08:40:55 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07 04:30:02 03:13:48 08:37:59 08:51:30 08:43:07 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:50:51 04:37:29 03:06:19 08:38:38 08:26:18 08:41:42 15
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 00:48:36 04:41:10 02:51:37 08:26:01 08:28:04 08:44:45 2
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 00:48:05 04:29:04 02:55:35 08:12:45 08:27:33 08:48:42 3
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:51:36 04:52:04 03:14:34 09:02:17 08:55:48 08:53:44 29
IM Australia 2008-04-06 00:46:58 04:46:50 03:12:12 08:46:00 08:46:13 08:53:08 5
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 00:51:25 04:38:39 03:11:00 08:44:55 08:43:02 08:55:29 19
IM Coeur d’Alene 2007-06-23 00:51:32 04:45:38 03:13:15 08:53:43 08:56:01 09:00:44 6
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 00:54:03 04:53:06 03:28:03 09:20:20 09:15:20 09:03:42 54
IM Lake Placid 2006-07-23 00:48:26 04:59:10 03:15:26 09:08:27 08:51:12 08:51:12 10

Results for Brett Carter (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Los Cabos 2013-03-17 00:49:30 04:54:55 03:04:29 08:52:35 08:49:18 08:49:18 9

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2012-12-09 00:53:56 04:42:11 02:58:19 08:38:30 08:51:59 08:57:09 4
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:59:37 04:50:40 03:25:27 09:21:24 09:26:24 08:57:39 4
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 00:54:10 04:46:45 03:06:58 08:53:25 08:57:00 08:54:49 7
IM Australia 2012-04-29 00:50:28 04:53:51 02:51:57 08:40:02 08:46:29 08:54:35 3
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:54:40 04:36:00 03:22:15 08:57:33 09:05:17 08:55:29 21
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 00:53:05 04:40:01 02:49:58 08:27:31 08:30:36 08:54:19 3
IM Canada 2011-08-28 00:56:50 05:07:28 03:04:50 09:12:55 09:16:21 08:57:14 10
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 00:57:39 04:53:59 02:50:24 08:47:18 08:48:53 08:54:46 3
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:46:07 08:49:31 08:55:37 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 00:55:40 04:37:21 04:34:06 10:12:54 10:08:40 08:56:33 11
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 00:55:04 04:44:01 02:51:46 08:34:52 08:40:01 08:46:01 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 00:55:28 04:38:40 03:03:11 08:37:20 08:51:27 08:46:56 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 00:55:39 04:56:22 03:00:31 08:58:09 08:56:32 08:46:13 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 00:55:06 05:03:31 03:03:45 09:02:22 09:05:10 08:44:30 10
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 00:50:43 04:26:37 02:53:36 08:10:57 08:25:42 08:40:47 2
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 00:55:10 04:59:57 02:58:05 08:59:14 09:00:33 08:43:44 3
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 00:52:34 04:48:54 02:54:15 08:35:43 08:58:49 08:40:00 12
IM Australia 2007-04-08 00:49:38 04:46:39 02:49:17 08:25:34 08:27:42 08:35:55 2
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 00:50:05 04:29:52 02:43:58 08:03:55 08:17:53 08:37:43 1
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:34:09 08:37:52 08:42:38 5
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 00:50:58 04:37:18 02:50:58 08:30:55 08:42:41 08:44:03 8
IM Australia 2006-05-11 00:50:28 04:54:53 02:50:48 08:36:09 08:36:50 08:44:35 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 00:58:43 04:37:42 03:16:20 08:57:06 08:53:54 08:49:21 36
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 00:54:07 04:36:52 02:44:52 08:27:25 08:44:22 08:44:22 8

Results for Todd Israel (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2012-07-08 00:48:20 05:05:33 03:16:04 09:14:54 09:25:06 09:03:56 19
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:50:43 04:40:08 02:58:32 08:33:31 08:40:55 08:40:55 15

Results for Johan Borg (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2012-12-09 00:57:08 04:38:53 03:03:45 08:43:55 08:57:32 09:12:06 6
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:55:27 04:58:09 03:23:05 09:21:53 09:29:58 09:29:58 32

Results for Simon Cochrane (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2013-03-02 00:51:35 05:01:02 03:18:54 09:17:12 09:21:56 09:14:26 10
IM Western Australia 2012-12-09 00:53:39 04:51:52 03:08:54 08:58:27 09:12:27 09:11:23 11
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 00:54:26 05:01:06 03:01:23 09:02:01 09:05:39 09:10:44 8
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 00:57:42 05:16:14 03:05:14 09:23:15 09:16:23 09:16:23 9

Results for Yeun Sik Ham (KOR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Korea 2011-07-03 01:02:43 05:03:40 02:58:19 09:36:02 09:38:31 09:38:31 6

Results for Dan Brown (PHI)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2012-11-18 01:06:04 09:40:56 09:52:41 09:45:04 28
IM Australia 2012-04-29 00:56:46 05:42:34 06:44:37 13:29:04 13:39:06 08:59:20 6
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:55:28 08:59:20 08:59:20 8

Results for Matt Randall (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Jemani Francis (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Timothy Molesworth (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Gina Crawford (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2013-03-02 00:51:44 05:08:17 03:14:54 09:20:54 09:25:40 09:27:13 2
Challenge Wanaka 2013-01-19 00:59:14 05:08:30 03:11:07 09:24:31 09:21:28 09:27:22 1
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 00:55:59 05:21:30 03:06:16 09:28:54 09:18:16 09:28:01 7
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:53:05 05:11:14 02:58:34 09:08:05 09:16:13 09:29:07 1
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:50:17 05:04:55 03:00:05 08:59:35 09:12:22 09:30:44 3
IM France 2012-06-24 00:52:10 05:20:04 03:07:14 09:26:25 09:28:17 09:33:11 2
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:53:11 05:09:48 03:03:42 09:11:16 09:19:12 09:33:56 5
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 00:54:21 05:24:10 03:17:16 09:44:06 09:36:59 09:36:22 1
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 00:53:35 05:12:50 03:14:22 09:27:26 09:28:12 09:36:15 1
IM St. George 2010-05-01 00:51:18 05:45:26 03:29:57 10:11:51 10:01:31 09:37:25 4
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 00:50:02 05:15:16 03:17:40 09:28:26 09:35:31 09:33:49 2
Challenge Wanaka 2010-01-16 09:28:57 09:29:10 09:33:31 1
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 00:50:10 05:02:15 03:24:26 09:16:52 09:32:04 09:34:21 1
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 00:52:05 05:12:46 03:08:11 09:18:26 09:27:21 09:34:53 1
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 09:28:27 09:34:57 09:36:34 1
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 00:48:52 05:01:42 03:03:08 08:57:18 09:17:42 09:37:00 3
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 00:49:35 05:16:54 03:21:58 09:33:29 09:39:45 09:42:59 5
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 09:33:46 09:28:49 09:44:14 1
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 00:53:59 05:22:07 03:14:45 09:37:03 09:35:00 09:53:25 1
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 00:50:58 05:42:30 03:31:07 10:09:32 10:14:48 10:14:48 5

Results for Michelle Gailey (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:58:20 06:04:35 05:35:33 13:02:56 13:09:54 09:39:18 6
IM New York 2012-08-11 00:42:59 05:35:24 03:22:50 09:45:42 09:53:20 09:39:18 8
IM Australia 2012-04-29 00:51:48 05:29:57 03:08:38 09:34:57 09:42:05 09:35:42 1
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 00:53:16 05:21:26 03:08:31 09:28:07 09:31:35 09:33:43 2
Challenge Barcelona 2011-10-02 00:54:18 05:13:07 03:03:31 09:15:00 09:23:02 09:34:32 2
IM Cairns 2011-06-05 00:53:00 05:17:21 03:16:10 09:30:41 09:35:42 09:41:04 2
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 00:53:00 05:24:39 03:24:02 09:50:04 09:46:50 09:46:50 7

Results for Michelle Bremer (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New York 2012-08-11 00:45:10 05:13:54 03:32:35 09:36:11 09:43:41 09:42:19 6
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:55:14 05:16:08 03:23:24 09:38:23 09:52:05 09:41:34 12
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 00:58:16 05:00:37 03:22:22 09:25:38 09:29:05 09:29:05 1

Results for Anna Ross (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2013-03-02 00:58:21 05:19:02 03:15:47 09:38:59 09:43:54 09:43:54 4

Results for Beth Walsh (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Los Cabos 2013-03-17 01:04:04 05:40:28 03:10:21 09:59:14 09:55:33 09:48:25 11
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 01:11:14 05:21:18 03:02:39 09:39:25 09:44:42 09:45:40 8
IM Wisconsin 2012-09-09 01:01:44 05:30:17 02:59:54 09:38:42 09:32:49 09:46:11 2
IM France 2012-06-24 00:59:48 05:44:05 03:08:32 09:58:26 10:00:24 10:00:24 6

Results for Stephanie Jones (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 01:20:39 05:11:34 03:14:54 09:51:59 09:57:23 10:06:18 13
IM Florida 2012-11-03 01:10:15 04:51:36 03:05:29 09:13:18 09:30:03 10:08:14 5
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 01:08:20 05:20:29 03:30:56 10:04:55 10:11:28 10:18:35 6
IM Florida 2011-11-05 01:06:49 05:02:57 03:16:36 09:33:45 09:56:07 10:20:56 5
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 01:01:24 05:18:04 03:26:29 09:52:40 10:03:58 10:30:09 3
IM France 2011-06-26 01:07:38 05:48:06 04:08:59 11:12:26 11:13:14 10:44:20 12
IM Florida 2007-11-03 01:03:37 04:59:54 03:26:52 09:34:31 09:55:33 10:13:32 9
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 01:08:35 05:40:11 03:35:01 10:29:55 10:27:40 10:24:16 9
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 01:09:57 05:48:05 03:36:55 10:43:35 10:19:44 10:19:44 8

Results for Michelle Wu (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Liz Blatchford (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

KPR after Brazil (Men) – Who’s in, who’s close, who needs more points

We’re getting closer to the first cutoff for Kona qualification, so I think this is a good time to have a closer look at the KPR standings. This post looks at the men, the previous one looks at the women.

The exact number of points that is required for a Kona slot is not easy to determine as there are 40 slots at the end of July and another 10 slots at the end of August.  In my 2012 Rating Report (available in the sidebar) I have determined that 4.000 points can be considered a safe number for qualification.

Who’s in

Athletes who have won Kona in the last five years just have to race another Ironman to qualify:

  • Craig Alexander (7.220 points, already validated in Melbourne)
  • Pete Jacobs (6.000 points, plans to race in Frankfurt)
  • Chris McCormack (890 points, will probably race in Cairns, but it’s unclear if he’s going to race another Kona)
Potential other qualifiers are:
  • Sebastian Kienle (70.3 champion, 7.500 points – plans to race IM Frankfurt)
  • Javier Gomez (5150 champion, but I haven’t heard any rumors that he’s interested in racing a full IM in order to race Kona 2013)

As noted above, I consider athletes with at least 4.000 points as safe qualifiers. There are quite a few established athletes who took care of their Kona slots early in the qualifying period:

  • Timothy O’Donnell (6.985 points)
  • Faris Al-Sultan (5.688 points)
  • Timo Bracht (5.300 points)
  • Petr Vabrousek (5.120 points – with five Ironman results!)
  • Eneko Llanos (5.085 points)
  • Jordan Rapp (4.725 points)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht (4.225 points)
  • Dirk Bockel (4.090 points – cutting it close, and I’m not sure if he’s got any plans to add some more points racing ITU long distance and Challenge Roth)

We also have some athletes who haven’t raced Kona 2012 that already have a safe spot:

  • Jimmy Johnsen (5.910 points)
  • Bevan Docherty (5.900 points)

Who’s close to qualifying

This category includes athletes that should already have enough points but are missing a validation race:
  • Andreas Raelert (6.290 points -scheduled to race Austria)
  • Andy Potts (5.850 points – plans to qualify in Lake Placid as in 2012)
  • Frederik Van Lierde (5.260 points – racing IM France again)
  • Bart Aernouts (4.700 points – plans to race IM France)

From the Kona 2012 athletes, there is one who is close to qualifying but not quite in “safe territory”:

  • Jeremy Jurkiewicz (3.620 points)

Then we have some athletes that haven’t qualified for Kona 2012 who are also close:

  • Horst Reichel (3.745 points)
  • Balazs Csoke (3.620 points)
  • Marino Vanhoenacker (3.520 points)

Who needs more points

At this “early” point in the season, a lot of established athletes haven’t yet raced their “main” qualifying race and we will see a lot of movement in the KPR. (The Northern hemisphere season is just getting started.) From the Kona Top10, only one athlete hasn’t been mentioned yet:

  • David Dellow (3.000 points – was injured and had to cancel Melbourne, he’s now getting ready for Frankfurt)

Some athletes made big headlines early in the qualifying cycle (remember Andy Starykowicz’s great bike times in Florida and Arizona?), but still need some more points to qualify:

  • James Cunnama (3.245 points)
  • Ian Mikelson (3.235 points)
  • Justin Daerr (3.195 points)
  • Andrew Starykowicz (3.050 points)

In addition, here are some Kona 2012 athletes that have already raced an Ironman and validated, but need quite a few more points:

  • Cyril Viennot (3.380 points)
  • Marko Albert (2.845 points)
  • Luke McKenzie (2.375 points)
  • Tom Lowe (2.350 points – had to skip Melbourne because of injury and is now re-evaluating his plans)

KPR after Brazil (Women) – Who’s in, who’s close, who needs more points

We’re getting closer to the first cutoff for Kona qualification, so I think this is a good time to have a closer look at the KPR standings. This is the first of two posts. This one looks at the women, the next one will look at the men. (I’ll probably post that one tomorrow.)

The exact number of points that is required for a Kona slot is not easy to determine as there are 27 slots at the end of July and another 8 slots at the end of August. (This number has changed in the 2013 season which makes quoting a number even trickier.) In my 2012 Rating Report (available from the sidebar on the right) I have determined that 4.750 points can be considered a safe number for qualification.

Who’s in

Athletes who have won Kona in the last five years just have to race another Ironman to qualify. With Chrissie retired, the other two winners have already validated their slots:

  • Leanda Cave (11.290 points)
  • Mirinda Carfrae (6.320 points)
The other “automatic qualifiers” would be the 70.3 champion (also Leanda) and the 5150 champion (Lisa Norden, who doesn’t appear to be interested in validating her slot).

As noted above, I consider athletes with at least 4.750 points as safe qualifiers. There are quite a few established athletes who took care of their Kona slots early in the qualifying period:

  • Carolin Steffen (9.720 points)
  • Meredith Kessler (7.540 points)
  • Gina Crawford (7.260 points)
  • Sonja Tajsich (7.065 points)
  • Mary Beth Ellis (7.000 points)
  • Natasche Badmann (6.460 points)
  • Michelle Vesterby (5.910 points)
  • Linsey Corbin (5.665 points)
  • Amanda Stevens (5.465 points)
  • Rachel Joyce (5.190 points)

We also have some athletes who haven’t raced Kona 2012 that have a safe spot:

  • Yvonne van Vlercken (6.165 points)
  • Corinne Abraham (6.010 points)
  • Jessie Donavan (5.450 points)

Who’s close to qualifying

This category includes athletes that should already have enough points but are missing a validation race:
  • Heather Wurtele (5.100 points – plans to race Coeur d’Alene in June)
  • Kelly Williamson (5.100 points – doesn’t have any Ironman plans for this year)

Another group of Kona 2012 athletes is close to my cutoff and should be able to make it with a few more points from 70.3 races:

  • Amy Marsh (4.510 points – struggled a bit in Texas, but validated; now she just needs a few hundred points from another 70.3)
  • Rebekah Keat (4.160 points – already validated and can add two more 70.3 results)
There are also some athletes that haven’t qualified for Kona 2012 who are close to qualifying but aren’t quite in “safe territory”:
  • Britta Martin (4.350 points)
  • Rebecca Hoschke (4.150 points)
  • Jodie Swallow (3.650 points)
  • Ashley Clifford (3.510 points)

Who needs more points

At this “early” point in the season, a lot of established athletes haven’t yet raced their “main” qualifying race. (The Northern hemisphere season is just getting started.) From the Kona Top10, only one athlete hasn’t been mentioned yet:

  • Caitlin Snow (3.480 points – was injured and had to skip IM Texas, but is now looking forward to race Couer d’Alene)

In addition, here are some Kona 2012 athletes that have already raced an Ironman and validated, but still need quite a few more points:

  • Mareen Hufe (3.200 points – already has three IMs in points – plans to race Frankfurt)
  • Kristin Möller (1.800 points – even after winning Lanzarote, she has to do a “big points race” to make it to Kona – probably racing Frankfurt)
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