Race Conditions

Conditions seemed to be pretty typical for Louisville, an adjustment of 5:09 leads to a new course rating of 3:30 (and continues the recent trend of larger adjustments).

Male Results

Patrick Evoe and Chris McDonald switched first and second place from last year, with Patrick posting the strongest bike by far:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Patrick Evoe	USA	00:58:15	04:33:31	03:06:01	08:42:44	08:48:22
2	Chris McDonald	AUS	00:56:26	04:47:28	03:04:09	08:52:59	08:43:38
3	Thomas Gerlach	USA	00:56:19	04:39:52	03:21:33	09:02:42	09:46:52
4	Jason Shortis	AUS	00:59:37	04:50:40	03:25:27	09:21:24	08:52:08
5	Thomas Maliszewski	USA	01:06:30	05:06:17	03:09:01	09:28:50	n/a
6	Timothy Beardall	AUS	01:08:01	04:44:44	03:40:34	09:39:18	n/a
7	Bojan Maric	SCG	01:01:02	05:26:38	03:41:31	10:16:11	10:05:55
8	Mike Hermanson	USA	00:57:48	05:18:11	03:58:45	10:20:16	n/a
9	Andrew Hodges	USA	00:53:10	05:43:14	03:42:23	10:25:07	n/a
10	Reinaldo Oliveira	BRA	01:01:04	05:22:02	04:07:49	10:37:16	10:10:46
11	Jared Woodford	USA	00:53:57	05:04:56	04:40:55	10:46:03	n/a

Female Results

On the female side, Bree Wee managed to win her first professional IM race, keeping the distance to Jackie Arendt around just a minute or two for the whole run:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Bree Wee	USA	00:56:21	05:12:18	03:22:03	09:36:27	09:54:00
2	Jackie Arendt	USA	00:56:18	05:15:47	03:20:12	09:38:14	09:59:20
3	Terra Castro	USA	00:58:18	05:23:22	03:25:57	09:53:27	10:13:19
4	Heather Gollnick	USA	00:57:52	05:15:33	03:34:04	09:55:25	09:52:02
5	April Lea Gellatly	USA	00:59:33	05:12:42	03:50:39	10:09:45	10:29:20
6	Michelle Gailey	AUS	00:58:20	06:04:35	05:35:33	13:02:56	n/a

Race Conditions

This year’s IM Canada was pretty fast, an adjustment of 7:20 was quite a bit faster than the new course rating of 3:46. It was the last time the race was held as an “official” Ironman, next year it will be held as a Challenge race on more or less the same course. It’ll be interesting to see if the Challenge brand manages to reverse the decline of the (professional) race, the depth of the field has declined quite a bit from the largest number of (pre-rated) professional athletes from 53 in 2008 down to this year’s 14 athletes.

Male Results

The strongest run put Matthew Russell into first place:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Matthew Russell	USA	01:03:04	04:48:41	02:53:34	08:48:30	08:58:19
2	Olly Piggin	CAN	00:56:51	04:48:43	03:05:25	08:54:17	09:17:25
3	Christian Brader	GER	00:57:29	04:48:19	03:09:52	08:58:59	08:53:24
4	Anthony Toth	CAN	00:57:23	04:55:37	03:04:25	09:02:07	09:28:59
5	Shanon Stallard	NZL	00:57:14	04:56:01	03:05:53	09:03:53	n/a
6	Matthew Sheeks	USA	01:03:10	05:00:44	03:02:01	09:09:40	09:12:14
7	Nathan Killam	CAN	00:57:05	05:05:21	03:10:09	09:17:00	n/a
8	Scott Tremblay	CAN	01:03:07	05:07:00	03:08:23	09:22:06	09:11:00
9	Kyle Marcotte	CAN	00:57:16	04:56:45	03:29:24	09:27:32	09:17:53
10	Luke Way	CAN	01:01:12	05:00:11	03:25:35	09:30:44	09:40:43
11	Ryan Borger	USA	00:57:36	05:19:35	03:40:00	10:01:18	n/a
12	Christopher Bagg	USA	00:54:17	04:49:29	04:14:59	10:01:48	09:10:05
13	JC Ramirez	USA	01:02:58	05:19:47	05:05:42	11:33:38	n/a
14	Elliot Holtham	CAN	00:54:16	04:48:10	05:56:03	11:41:36	n/a

Female Results

Similarly, Gillian Clayton used the best run split to win the race:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Gillian Clayton	CAN	01:08:32	05:16:51	03:17:08	09:46:07	10:28:14
2	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	00:55:41	05:30:09	03:21:43	09:50:52	n/a
3	Janelle Morrison	CAN	01:06:46	05:16:47	03:25:57	09:53:20	09:49:25
4	Paolina Allan	CAN	01:03:12	05:22:03	03:35:04	10:04:07	10:01:18
5	Alexis Smith	USA	00:57:11	05:32:14	03:33:25	10:06:34	n/a
6	Stephanie Ossenbrink	CAN	00:57:14	05:09:30	04:05:20	10:15:48	10:19:56
7	Trish Deim	USA	01:10:02	05:19:23	03:47:48	10:21:48	10:29:40
8	Monica Dalidowicz	CAN	01:02:59	05:29:26	03:47:15	10:24:07	n/a

Race Conditions

According to my calculations, IM Sweden was a medium fast course with an adjustment of 8:45. (This  number looks a bit suspicious, and I’m looking into it. Update: I’ve done a pretty involved analysis on how I’m calculation adjustments and course ratings. I noticed that my current algorithm is not very good in dealing with very slow and very fast races and discards a lot of results in these cases as “too far off”. I’m working on improving this, in the meantime 25:00 minutes is a better estimate of IM Sweden’s course rating, i.e. it is a very fast course, probably even faster than Roth or Austria.)

Male Results

On the men’s side, Jan Raphael had a strong race, was in the mix for the whole day and posted the fastest run to finally win another Ironman:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Jan Raphael	GER	00:48:32	04:26:32	02:45:44	08:04:01	08:29:40
2	Dorian Wagner	GER	00:48:38	04:26:31	02:49:49	08:08:06	08:39:52
3	Horst Reichel	GER	00:48:16	04:27:09	02:51:00	08:10:12	09:19:21
4	Jonas Djurback	SWE	00:48:29	04:26:51	02:52:37	08:10:51	09:08:14
5	Anton Blokhin	UKR	00:48:40	04:30:54	02:50:41	08:13:56	08:51:33
6	Andi Boecherer	GER	00:48:15	04:26:37	02:56:55	08:15:26	08:32:59
7	Sergio Marques	PRT	00:53:17	04:31:35	02:48:20	08:16:21	08:54:39
8	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	00:48:45	04:24:20	03:05:09	08:21:04	n/a
9	Teemu Lemmettylae	FIN	00:58:39	04:25:48	02:53:39	08:21:51	09:01:10
10	Christophe Bastie	FRA	00:52:53	04:27:38	02:58:02	08:21:54	08:45:16
11	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	00:48:37	04:30:58	03:00:49	08:24:20	08:57:30
12	Jens Groenbek	DEN	00:50:28	04:34:36	02:57:40	08:25:26	08:42:56
13	David Naesvik	SWE	00:54:47	04:30:17	03:00:59	08:28:53	09:01:20
14	Heinrich Sickl	AUT	00:55:23	04:29:37	03:09:34	08:37:43	09:33:49
15	Ted Aas	SWE	00:53:31	04:31:14	03:13:02	08:40:47	09:11:24
16	Raul Furtado	BRA	00:53:20	04:30:45	03:15:56	08:43:54	08:59:12
17	Jonas Colting	SWE	00:50:14	04:34:36	03:13:00	08:45:02	09:41:19
18	Luke Dragstra	USA	00:50:41	04:34:13	03:30:39	08:59:07	08:52:17
19	Teemu Kyllonen	GBR	01:02:26	04:37:24	03:17:19	09:03:10	n/a
20	Ari Saukko	FIN	00:57:54	04:42:43	04:07:15	09:52:29	n/a
21	Marek Nemcik	SVK	01:12:30	05:12:31	04:27:19	10:58:00	11:58:35
22	Ivan Kharin	RUS	01:12:45	04:46:16	05:22:17	11:26:25	11:15:18

Female Results

The home country was very happy to see a local winner. Again, it took the fastest run to put away the race:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Asa Lundström	SWE	01:00:17	04:51:45	03:18:19	09:13:27	09:46:47
2	Dana Wagner	GER	00:58:55	04:48:47	03:31:30	09:22:32	09:55:40
3	Emi Sakai	JPN	01:04:48	04:53:38	03:31:05	09:34:36	10:26:18
4	Rebekka Essmüller	GER	00:55:03	04:57:28	03:42:28	09:39:02	10:06:00
5	Helene Malmkvist	SWE	01:07:47	04:48:42	04:23:32	10:28:14	n/a
6	Zsuzsanna Harsanyi	HUN	01:04:59	05:31:48	04:01:42	10:44:38	10:55:11
7	Conny Dauben	GER	01:10:53	05:22:26	04:22:04	11:00:03	10:50:11

Race Conditions

Mont Tremblant turned out to be a medium fast course with an adjustment of 11:11. There were only 12 rated athletes finishing the race, so this number may change quite a bit in the next years.

Male Results

Romain Guillaume had a commanding lead after the swim and bike, so he could “afford” a 3:09 marathon and still win by about 6 minutes:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Romain Guillaume	FRA	00:51:22	04:35:17	03:09:09	08:40:48	09:04:38
2	Alejandro Santamaria	ESP	00:57:17	04:52:23	02:52:35	08:46:58	08:46:13
3	Matthew Russell	USA	01:02:34	04:47:11	02:53:29	08:48:12	08:54:20
4	Martin Lamontagne Lacasse	CAN	00:55:05	05:02:16	03:02:15	09:04:59	09:38:59
5	Ryan Cain	CAN	00:57:02	04:58:56	03:05:25	09:06:08	09:53:33
6	Brendan Halpin	USA	01:06:07	05:07:46	03:18:24	09:37:18	09:17:02
7	Chuck Perreault	CAN	00:55:02	05:06:00	03:31:40	09:38:57	n/a
8	Nigel Gray	CAN	00:57:06	04:45:02	05:23:52	11:11:19	08:58:48

Female Results

After winning IM Lake Placid about a month ago, Jessie Donavan added another IM title:

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Actual Time	Expected Time
1	Jessie Donavan	USA	01:07:33	05:06:31	03:11:35	09:30:46	09:35:22
2	Uli Bromme	USA	01:04:38	05:14:35	03:17:32	09:42:45	09:50:53
3	Rachel Kiers	CAN	01:01:40	05:08:46	03:33:55	09:49:49	10:05:10
4	Marie Danais	CAN	00:57:10	05:42:16	03:28:45	10:14:33	10:23:02
5	Katya Meyers	USA	01:07:28	05:15:35	03:50:03	10:19:23	10:13:50

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Louisville is a relatively slow course (probably because of the heat) with a course rating of 2:53 (but quite some variation). Last year’s winners were Chris McDonald in 8:27 and Nina Kraft in 9:38. The course records are 08:25:27 by Victor Zyemtsev and 09:20:21 by Nina Kraft, both from 2009. This year, it is a 1.000 points race, so I don’t expect any Kona contenders to race this race.

Male Participants

Chris McDonald is back to defend his title:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:45:34	08:48:23	74
2	Patrick Evoe	USA	08:50:13	08:53:03	100
3	Daniel Bretscher	USA	09:06:15	09:09:10	198
4	Jim Lamastra		09:06:31	09:09:27	202
5	Ivan Albano	BRA	09:19:10	09:22:10	303
6	Peter Kotland	USA	09:28:07	09:31:09	372
7	Yeun Sik Ham	KOR	09:40:08	09:43:14	447
8	Thomas Gerlach	USA	09:47:19	09:50:28	507
9	Bojan Maric	SCG	10:09:47	10:13:03	641
10	Reinaldo Oliveira	BRA	10:09:48	10:13:04	642
11	Yong Taek Kim	KOR	10:11:20	10:14:36	653
12	Andrew Hodges		n/a	unrated	n/a
13	Timothy Beardall		n/a	unrated	n/a
14	Jared Woodford		n/a	unrated	n/a
15	Mike Hermanson		n/a	unrated	n/a
16	Robert Wade		n/a	unrated	n/a
17	Thomas Maliszewski		n/a	unrated	n/a
18	Ed Donner		n/a	unrated	n/a

He is also the one with the best winning odds:

• Chris McDonald: 51%
• Patrick Evoe: 41%

Other than these two, no athlete has a reasonable (statistical) chance of winning the race.

Female Participants

As for the men, last year’s winner Nina Kraft is back to defend her title:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank
1	Nina Kraft	GER	09:34:21	09:37:25	31
2	Jessica Smith	USA	09:46:04	09:49:12	63
3	Bree Wee	USA	09:55:34	09:58:45	91
4	Jackie Arendt	USA	10:01:48	10:05:01	107
5	Terra Castro	USA	10:14:58	10:18:16	156
6	April Lea Gellatly	USA	10:30:27	10:33:50	197
7	Tatiana Vertiz		10:53:39	10:57:09	247
8	Amanda McKenzie	AUS	11:08:04	11:11:39	261

She also leads the winning odds:

• Nina Kraft: 57%
• Jackie Arendt: 15%
• Bree Wee: 11%
• Jessica Smith: 10%