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IM New York 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

There was quite a mixed feedback whether New York was a quick or slow course: A fast swim (with a current) and a slower run course. The results showed that a lot of athletes raced better than their ratings would indicate, resulting in an adjustment (and initial course rating) of 9:23, i.e. a medium quick course, comparable to Melbourne or Cozumel.

Male Results

Jordan Rapp dominated this race with the fastest bike an run splits:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Jordan Rapp USA 00:41:45 04:26:34 02:59:21 08:11:18 08:20:32
2 Maxim Kriat UKR 00:41:04 04:35:55 03:04:15 08:24:32 08:27:00
3 Jozsef Major HUN 00:43:47 04:33:09 03:06:12 08:27:00 08:38:30
4 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:43:38 04:40:03 03:01:21 08:29:20 09:01:05
5 Markus Thomschke GER 00:42:40 04:33:52 03:09:20 08:30:02 09:06:56
6 TJ Tollakson USA 00:39:15 04:31:54 03:18:16 08:33:01 08:39:30
7 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:41:02 04:36:03 03:14:25 08:34:59 08:48:27
8 Pedro Gomez POR 00:42:37 04:41:05 03:11:01 08:38:40 08:39:03
9 Luke Bell AUS 00:39:08 04:37:54 03:18:52 08:39:20 08:40:59
10 Chris McDonald AUS 00:43:34 04:40:37 03:13:39 08:41:30 08:38:58
11 Christian Brader GER 00:43:44 04:32:44 03:22:05 08:42:08 08:52:43
12 Mike Schifferle SUI 00:45:48 04:45:40 03:06:56 08:45:02 09:00:41
13 Michael Lovato USA 00:40:02 04:55:11 03:06:15 08:46:32 08:37:00
14 Michael Wetzel GER 00:45:07 04:52:58 03:09:40 08:51:26 09:06:18
15 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:41:01 04:35:46 03:33:12 08:54:20 08:33:45
16 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:39:12 04:31:56 03:44:31 08:58:59 08:38:59
17 Kevin Taddonio USA 00:47:53 04:47:58 03:22:00 09:02:52 08:49:20
18 Timothy Marr USA 00:39:11 04:37:59 03:44:42 09:05:27 09:21:08
19 Brendan Halpin USA 00:46:48 05:01:36 03:21:51 09:14:13 09:20:09
20 Stefan Riesen SWI 00:47:33 04:35:37 03:48:15 09:16:08 08:38:43
21 Matjaz Kovac SVN 00:43:36 05:02:59 03:38:13 09:30:11 09:49:10
22 Raymond Botelho USA 00:43:42 04:57:18 04:01:20 09:47:04 09:42:51

Female Results

The race on the women’s side was open for a longer time, but Mary Beth Ellis quickly pulled away from Amy Marsh who led after the bike and was also overtaken by Rebekah Keat:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:40:33 05:04:03 03:14:32 09:02:48 09:08:47
2 Rebekah Keat AUS 00:41:34 05:11:41 03:15:43 09:13:24 09:14:45
3 Amy Marsh USA 00:40:35 05:03:01 03:28:25 09:15:57 09:17:55
4 Sarah Piampiano USA 00:47:14 05:10:49 03:28:29 09:30:29 09:57:08
5 Tamara Kozulina UKR 00:47:23 05:19:02 03:22:27 09:33:23 09:43:44
6 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:45:10 05:13:54 03:32:35 09:36:11 09:37:24
7 Haley Cooper-Scott USA 00:47:17 05:11:11 03:41:53 09:44:17 10:02:58
8 Michelle Mitchell AUS 00:42:59 05:35:24 03:22:50 09:45:42 09:33:32
9 Jacqui Gordon USA 00:45:33 05:23:28 03:35:50 09:48:58 10:03:22
10 Laurel Wassner USA 00:40:36 05:45:28 03:16:32 09:49:24 n/a
11 Kristin Andrews USA 00:47:26 05:35:37 03:22:52 09:50:40 09:50:10
12 Heather Gollnick USA 00:43:18 05:24:40 03:43:03 09:57:44 09:46:23
13 Nina Pekerman ISR 00:45:37 05:28:52 03:42:33 10:01:47 10:07:48
14 Meghan Newcomer USA 00:45:13 05:34:48 03:38:58 10:03:14 n/a
15 Hillary Biscay USA 00:41:33 05:33:11 03:51:56 10:11:40 10:02:22
16 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:40:29 05:27:20 04:54:01 11:07:46 09:48:55

Updated Kona 2012 Odds (after July races)

Now that the July races are over and the first round of Kona qualifiers has been decided, it is time to update the Kona odds.

Men

Some of the top contenders validated their Kona slots in the July races.

Kona2012MenOdds

The main changes are a consequence of the following results:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker won IM Frankfurt, putting him into a solid statistical 2nd biggest favorite for Kona.
  • Andreas Raelert had a sub-standard (for him) results in Frankfurt, so his statistical chances decreased a bit.
  • Cam Brown’s chances decreased a bit – even though he posted a solid result in Roth, it was not on the “winning Kona” level.

Women

There were a few changes on the women’s side as well:

Kona2012WomenOdds

 

Here are the main events resulting in changes:

  • Caroline Steffen won IM Frankfurt in convincing fashion, further closing the gap to Rinnie.
  • Rachel Joyce also had a great result winning in Roth. Maybe she can continue the British dominance in Kona?
  • I finally had to remove Cat Morrison from my Kona odds – she is recovering from an injury and is not going to be able to qualify for Kona 2012. Hopefully she’s going to come back stronger than ever and will be able to play a role in the next years.

Updated TOP 10 Ratings

After all the races in June and July, it was time to update my TOP 10 Ratings page.

Here is a brief look at the changes:

  • After Andreas Raelert’s sub-par (for him) result in Frankfurt, his rating dropped to 8:16:50. This allowed Crowie to move into the first spot with his rating of 8:15:01. Andreas is still second.
  • Dirk Bockel moved up one spot based on his winning result in Regensburg.
  • Julie Dibens hasn’t raced an IM for more than a year, so she dropped out of my ratings. (I still have Chrissie and Karin Thürig in there, their last races were Kona 2011, so they’ll drop out in October.)
  • Similarly, Yvonne van Vlercken hasn’t posted an IM result – she had a number of DNFs. She also dropped out of the ratings.
  • The two “vacated” spots were taken up by Sonja Tajsich (now 8th with a rating of 9:26:20 after racing Challenge Roth) and Linsey Corbin (10th with 9:27:51 after IM Austria).
  • Rebekah Keat moved up a few spots with an improved rating of 9:24:34 – this is a result of adding the Challenge Copenhagen results from 2010 and 2011 (two races she won).

Challenge Kopenhagen 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Challenge Kopenhagen has been going on since 2010. It was won twice by Tim Berkel (who of course also holds the course record with a 8:07:39) and Rebekah Keat (women’s course record of 8:52:42). So the course is pretty quick, with a course rating of 12:54 (similar to IM Germany and IM Brazil).

Male Participants

Tim Berkel is back to defend his title, and he is the race favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tim Berkel AUS 08:28:10 08:40:36 37
2 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:33:02 08:45:35 57
3 Keegan Williams NZL 08:34:48 08:47:24 66
4 Mads Vittrup DEN 08:41:07 08:53:52 102
5 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:42:19 08:55:06 110
6 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:50:54 09:03:53 157
7 Joseph Spindler GER 08:52:30 09:05:32 171
8 Andreas Borch DEN 08:54:59 09:08:04 185
9 Egoitz Zalakain ESP 09:10:44 09:24:13 314
10 Fabian Kremser SWI 09:39:20 09:53:31 521
11 Elmar Heger GER 09:53:16 10:07:47 610
12 Chris Goodfellow GBR n/a unrated n/a
13 Jacob Frandsen DEN n/a unrated n/a
14 Ulrich Konschak GER n/a unrated n/a

After Tim Berkel, the winning odds show a number of athletes that have the potential for the top spot on the podium:

  • Tim Berkel: 46%
  • Keegan Williams: 18%
  • Jimmy Johnsen: 13%
  • Dejan Patrcevic: 11%
  • Mads Vittrup: 6%
  • Aaron Farlow: 5%

Female Participants

On the female side, Rebekah Keat is scheduled to race New York, so she’s not defending her title. In her absence, German Diana Riesler is both the top-rated athlete and the one with the best winning odds:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Diana Riesler GER 09:29:16 09:43:12 45
2 Edith Niederfriniger ITA 09:33:41 09:47:43 59
3 Lisbeth Kristensen SWI 09:36:54 09:51:01 68
4 Wenke Kujala GER 09:42:09 09:56:24 78
5 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 09:51:57 10:06:26 114
6 Katja Konschak GER 09:52:39 10:07:09 116
7 Helene Pallesen DEN 09:52:42 10:07:12 118
8 Julia Bohn GER 10:16:38 10:31:43 192
9 Jessica Crafoord SWE n/a unrated n/a

She is followed by two athletes that have had quite a long break, Edith Niderfriniger and Lisbeth Kristensen:

  • Diana Riesler: 35%
  • Edith Niederfriniger: 24%
  • Lisbeth Kristensen: 19%
  • Katja Konschak: 10%
  • Wenke Kujala: 10%

Kona 2012 – First Round (July) Qualifiers

The first round of qualifiers for Kona 2012 has been decided and will probably be announced by WTC in the next few days. But as there are no more races that hand out points, so we can already have a closer look.

My basis is the KPR standings and for the men, some additional well known athletes. I’ve annotated the WTC list with some more information:

  • Q – “Q”  if the athlete is a July qualifier
  • Validated – “no” if the athlete has not raced and IM
  • Raced Kona 2011 – “no” if the athlete wasn’t on the Kona start list

It remains to be seen if all athletes accept their slots (their were some declines last year). There will be second round of qualifiers at the end of August: 10 more for the men, and 5 more for the women.

Men

Q KPR rank Name Ctry KPR points Validated? Raced Kona 2011? Comment
Q 1. Craig Alexander AUS 13.970 automatic qualifier
Q 2. Andreas Raelert DEU 8.360
Q 3. Pete Jacobs AUS 7.305
Q 4. Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 7.230
Q 5. Cameron Brown NZL 6.840
Q 6. Sebastian Kienle DEU 6.590 no
Q 7. Timo Bracht DEU 6.000
Q 8. Marko Albert EST 5.640
Q 9. Faris Al-sultan DEU 5.490
Q 10. Frederik Van Lierde BEL 5.480
Q 11. Dirk Bockel LUX 5.450
Q 12. Mike Aigroz CHE 5.360
Q 13. Daniel Fontana ITA 5.280
Q 14. Petr Vabrousek CZE 5.260
Q 15. Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 5.120 no
Q 16. Ronnie Schildknecht CHE 5.100
Q 17. David Dellow AUS 5.000 no
Q 18. Raynard Tissink ZAF 4.910
Q 19. Joe Gambles AUS 4.830
Q 20. Viktor Zyemtsev UKR 4.810 no
Q 21. Eneko Llanos ESP 4.800
Q 22. Paul Matthews AUS 4.725 no
Q 23. Jérémy Jurkiewicz FRA 4.720 no
Q 24. Mike Schifferle CHE 4.700
Q 25. Paul Amey GBR 4.690
Q 26. Timothy Odonnell USA 4.645
Q 27. Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 4.610 no
Q 28. Luke Mckenzie AUS 4.570
Q 29. Romain Guillaume FRA 4.560 no
Q 30. Trevor Delsaut FRA 4.420 no
Q 31. Rasmus Henning DNK 4.380
Q 32. Cyril Viennot FRA 4.205
Q 33. Matthew Russell USA 4.180
Q 34. Tom Lowe GBR 4.110
Q 35. Joshua Rix AUS 4.095 no
Q 36. Luke Bell AUS 4.070
Q 37. Bruno Clerbout BEL 3.965 no
Q 38. Michael Lovato USA 3.925
Q 39. Alejandro Santamaria ESP 3.920 no
Q 40. Sergio Marques PRT 3.880
Q 41. Andy Potts USA 3.840
Q? 42. Michael Raelert DEU 3.830
43. Jason Shortis AUS 3.820 no
44. Aaron Farlow AUS 3.760 no
45. Tim Reed AUS 3.705
46. Andi Boecherer DEU 3.650 no was injured, plans to race Sweden
47. Leon Griffin AUS 3.645 no
48. Axel Zeebroek BEL 3.605
49. Clayton Fettell AUS 3.510 no
50. Bart Aernouts BEL 3.510 no
51. Ezequiel Morales ARG 3.400 no
52. Stefan Schmid DEU 3.360 no
53. Chris Lieto USA 3.310 no run injury, focuses on Las Vegas 70.3
54. Stephane Poulat FRA 3.160 no
55. Mathias Hecht CHE 3.120
56. Jozsef Major HUN 3.080
57. Brandon Marsh USA 3.080
58. Justin Daerr USA 3.020 no
59. Richie Cunningham USA 2.860 no no
60. Paul Ambrose GBR 2.840 no plans to race New York
63. Jan Raphael DEU 2.800
64. Balazs Csoke HUN 2.705
71. Maik Twelsiek DEU 2.430 plans to race New York
72. Ben Hoffman USA 2.415
73. Michael Goehner DEU 2.370
76. Lance Armstrong USA 2.305 no can’t race in WTC events because under doping investigation
Q 77. Greg Bennet USA 2.260 no automatic qualifier
79. Trevor Wurtele CAN 2.220
80. Matty Reed USA 2.215 no
84. Michael Weiss AUT 2.160 serving a two-year doping suspension
91. Ian Mikelson USA 2.050
96. Jordan Rapp USA 2.000 no plans to race New York and Canada
97. Matthew White AUS 1.980
100. Terenzo Bozzone NZL 1.940 no
Q 103. Chris McCormack AUS 1.880 no automatic qualifier
120. Bert Jammaer BEL 1.580
129. Torsten Abel DEU 1.400
130. Tj Tollakson USA 1.325 no plans to race New York
153. Courtney Ogden AUS 1.100
168. Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 1.000
337. Georg Potrebitsch DEU 300 no
n/a James Cunnama ZAF – no no
n/a Torsten Abel DEU – no no
n/a Tim Berkel AUS – no no
n/a Konstantin Bachor GER – no no

Update: Raynard Tissink was missing on the official WTC list, instead Michael Raelert was assigned a July spot. There were some rumors that Raynard Tissink stopped racing professionally, but I’m still trying to find out some more info. Greg Bennet was also not listed as an automatic qualifier, not sure why that would be the case.

Women

Q KPR rank Name Ctry KPR points Validated? Raced Kona 2011? Comment
Q 1. Caroline Steffen CHE 13.320
Q 2. Mirinda Carfrae AUS 9.995 automatic qualifier
Q 3. Leanda Cave GBR 9.250
Q 4. Rachel Joyce GBR 8.910
Q 5. Meredith Kessler USA 7.440 no
Q 6. Linsey Corbin USA 6.820
Q 7. Joanna Lawn NZL 6.545
Q 8. Heather Wurtele CAN 6.540
Q 9. Kelly Williamson USA 6.470
Q 10. Gina Crawford NZL 6.335 no
Q 11. Carrie Lester AUS 6.230 no
Q 12. Simone Brandli CHE 6.160 no
Q 13. Natascha Badmann CHE 6.005
14. Chrissie Wellington GBR 6.000 no not racing IMs this year
Q 15. Jessica Jacobs USA 5.980
Q 16. Caitlin Snow USA 5.960
Q 17. Anja Beranek DEU 5.865 no
Q 18. Sofie Goos BEL 5.810
Q 19. Tine Deckers BEL 5.725
Q 20. Kristin Moeller DEU 5.700 no
Q 21. Amanda Stevens USA 5.560
Q 22. Susan Dietrich DEU 5.530 no
Q 23. Sonja Tajsich DEU 5.385
24. Karin Thuerig CHE 5.300 no ended her career
Q 25. Erika Csomor HUN 5.200 no
26. Melissa Rollison AUS 5.160 no no was injured, would have been an automatic qualifier
Q 27. Mary Beth Ellis USA 5.160 on the start list for New York
Q 28. Michelle Vesterby DNK 4.880 no
Q 29. Corinne Abraham GBR 4.830 no
30. Sara Gross CAN 4.415 no plans to race New York
31. Mareen Hufe DEU 4.400 no
32. Belinda Granger AUS 4.330 no
33. Kate Bevilaqua AUS 3.990 plans to race New York
34. Sarah Piampiano USA 3.745 no
35. Virginia Berasategui ESP 3.620
36. Amy Marsh USA 3.495 plans to race New York
37. Jessie Donavan USA 3.480 no
38. Emi Sakai JPN 3.480 no
39. Anne Basso FRA 3.350 no plans to race New York
40. Hillary Biscay USA 3.340 no plans to race New York
41. Maki Nishiuchi JPN 3.320 plans to race New York
42. Rebekah Keat AUS 3.110 no plans to race New York
54. Samantha Warriner NZL 2.545 no just had a new baby
63. Catriona Morrison GBR 2.300 no was injured, is slowly starting to build up
78. Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 1.960 plans to race New York
84. Uli Bromme USA 1.860
88. Yvonne Van Vlerken NLD 1.760 no
119. Lucie Zelenkova CZE 1.340 no
178. Jackie Arendt USA 700 no
207. Tyler Stewart USA 500 no is focusing on ultra running
218. Miranda Alldritt CAN 400 no
220. Silvia Felt DEU 400 no
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