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IM Sweden 2012 – Predictions (Detail Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Jan Raphael GER n/a 08:38:04 28
2 Andi Boecherer GER n/a 08:41:26 41
3 Dorian Wagner GER n/a 08:48:26 75
4 Jens Grønbek DEN n/a 08:51:33 92
5 Christophe Bastie FRA n/a 08:53:55 102
6 Anton Blokhin UKR n/a 09:00:18 137
7 Simon Billeau FRA n/a 09:00:59 144
8 Luke Dragstra USA n/a 09:01:03 146
9 Sergio Marques PRT n/a 09:03:27 155
10 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS n/a 09:06:21 180
11 Raul Furtado BRA n/a 09:08:05 189
12 Teemu Lemmettyla FIN n/a 09:10:05 205
13 David Nasvik SWE n/a 09:10:15 207
14 Jonas Djurback SWE n/a 09:17:16 260
15 Ted Aas SWE n/a 09:20:29 290
16 Paul Hawkins GBR n/a 09:21:52 301
17 Horst Reichel GER n/a 09:28:34 350
18 Heinrich Sickl AUT n/a 09:43:16 447
19 Jonas Colting SWE n/a 09:50:53 508
20 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS n/a 10:23:07 696
21 Ivan Kharin RUS n/a 11:26:25 829
22 Marek Nemcik SVK n/a 12:10:25 854
23 Ari Saukko FIN n/a unrated n/a
24 Erik Strand SWE n/a unrated n/a
25 Anu Vaidyanathan IND n/a unrated n/a
26 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE n/a unrated n/a
27 Teemu Kyllonen GBR n/a unrated n/a
28 Pontus Lindberg SWE n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Åsa Lundström DEN n/a 09:56:27 79
2 Dana Wagner GER n/a 10:05:29 110
3 Rebekka Essmüller GER n/a 10:15:59 150
4 Stephanie Jones USA n/a 10:21:39 168
5 Emi Sakai JPN n/a 10:36:37 204
6 Conny Dauben GER n/a 11:00:53 252
7 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN n/a 11:05:58 256
8 Helene Malmkvist SWE n/a unrated n/a
9 Christine Grammer GER n/a unrated n/a

Results for Jan Raphael (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2012-07-08 08:18:17 08:30:23 08:38:04 5
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:48:44 08:49:55 08:39:26 25
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:19:31 08:29:39 08:37:39 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:20:41 08:26:08 08:39:10 4
IM Germany 2010-07-04 08:19:27 08:30:37 08:42:02 5
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:42:46 08:50:39 08:44:23 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:58:06 08:53:40 08:42:52 27
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 08:32:32 08:40:20 08:40:03 4
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 08:23:03 08:29:32 08:39:58 5
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:12:57 08:32:02 08:43:38 6
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:16:15 09:16:07 08:48:59 39
IM Germany 2007-07-01 08:19:29 08:33:31 08:32:52 4
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:22:44 08:32:05 08:32:05 1

Results for Andi Boecherer (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 08:23:19 08:24:27 08:41:26 8
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:08:36 08:19:25 08:46:15 2
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:24:34 09:25:35 08:54:56 51
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 08:18:28 08:25:02 08:43:01 2
IM Canada 2009-08-30 08:53:37 08:57:55 08:53:29 6
IM Germany 2008-07-06 08:13:33 08:32:40 08:49:54 7
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:15:54 09:13:45 09:13:45 5

Results for Dorian Wagner (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 08:19:47 08:37:03 08:48:26 7
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:37:01 09:03:41 09:03:41 8

Results for Jens Grønbek (DEN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:00:36 09:09:11 08:51:33 24
Challenge Kopenhagen 2010-08-01 08:17:34 08:23:14 08:23:14 3

Results for Christophe Bastie (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 08:47:32 09:05:46 08:53:55 15
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 08:26:10 08:38:53 08:52:29 10
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:24:32 08:46:44 08:54:00 7
Challenge Kopenhagen 2011-08-01 08:27:32 08:45:59 08:54:53 7
IM Florida 2010-11-06 08:27:01 08:42:51 08:56:02 6
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:52:10 08:53:08 08:57:34 36
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:10:01 09:12:15 08:58:08 10
Challenge Roth 2010-07-18 08:25:58 08:43:51 08:56:06 8
IM Florida 2009-11-07 08:35:29 08:51:22 08:58:03 5
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:44:24 08:58:03 08:59:04 6
IM Florida 2008-11-01 08:24:41 08:43:57 08:59:13 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:12:21 09:10:39 09:01:30 40
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 08:54:31 09:07:13 08:59:56 7
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:32:41 08:48:02 08:58:32 6
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:08:08 09:07:11 09:00:29 5
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:52:24 08:59:48 08:59:02 10
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:46:16 08:56:03 08:58:53 6
IM Canada 2006-08-27 08:59:22 08:58:31 08:59:36 6
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 08:46:22 08:59:01 08:59:57 16
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:17:04 09:16:31 09:00:22 54
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 08:28:00 08:38:46 08:51:16 9
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:04:33 09:04:33 09:04:33 8

Results for Anton Blokhin (UKR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Coeur d’Alene 2012-06-24 08:59:49 09:02:26 09:00:18 5
IM Austria 2011-07-03 08:30:57 08:57:19 08:58:41 7
IM Austria 2010-07-04 08:43:17 09:00:31 09:00:31 12

Results for Simon Billeau (FRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:25:22 09:34:20 09:00:59 33
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 08:38:06 08:46:33 08:53:18 8
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:43:58 08:54:35 08:55:06 11
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 08:40:37 08:52:25 08:55:16 8
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 08:53:49 09:01:52 08:56:18 8
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:14:07 09:09:33 08:53:54 38
IM France 2009-06-28 08:46:30 08:53:05 08:44:43 3
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:20:32 08:34:55 08:34:55 5

Results for Luke Dragstra (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15 11:23:16 11:25:50 09:01:03 8
Challenge Kopenhagen 2010-08-01 08:34:44 08:40:36 09:01:03 10
Challenge Roth 2009-07-12 08:13:51 08:34:23 09:04:14 9
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 08:58:25 09:04:20 09:08:06 5
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:46:53 09:47:30 09:08:35 13
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 08:39:52 09:00:45 09:03:32 11
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 08:58:42 09:02:15 09:03:56 4
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 08:26:42 08:43:03 09:04:10 9
IM Korea 2007-08-26 10:14:04 09:57:43 09:07:28 11
Challenge Roth 2007-06-24 08:24:26 08:44:51 08:58:57 8
IM Australia 2007-04-08 09:02:18 09:05:57 09:01:40 8
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 08:54:17 08:56:35 09:00:43 1
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 08:36:50 08:44:01 09:01:48 5
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 08:54:47 09:07:12 09:07:49 9
IM Western Australia 2005-11-27 09:08:49 09:11:12 09:08:04 13
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:21:03 09:06:04 09:06:19 5
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:06:35 09:06:35 09:06:35 9

Results for Sergio Marques (PRT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 08:43:12 08:53:59 09:03:27 4
IM France 2012-06-24 08:48:55 08:56:25 09:04:19 5
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 09:02:58 08:58:17 09:05:05 3
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 08:54:14 09:02:43 09:05:48 20
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:18:26 09:19:41 09:06:08 33
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:57:53 09:08:47 09:04:40 16
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:48:01 09:02:10 09:04:12 6
IM France 2011-06-26 08:49:55 08:54:00 09:04:27 5
IM Texas 2011-05-21 08:48:57 08:54:42 09:05:57 12
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 09:09:30 09:21:40 09:07:46 15
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:05:04 09:07:57 09:05:11 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 09:11:10 09:07:01 09:04:41 7
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:41:02 09:36:15 09:04:13 60
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:08:38 09:05:53 08:57:36 8
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:47:16 09:45:27 08:55:44 57
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 08:59:16 08:55:44 08:44:04 3
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:23:49 08:38:54 08:40:39 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 08:36:05 08:46:50 08:41:11 7
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:40:32 08:36:35 08:39:03 19
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 08:31:26 08:32:29 08:40:09 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:43:45 08:43:14 08:44:53 20
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 08:46:47 08:46:47 08:46:47 3

Results for Andrey Lyatskiy (RUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2012-07-08 08:41:49 08:54:29 09:06:21 10
IM Brasil 2012-05-27 08:45:16 09:05:14 09:09:45 9
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:25:43 09:19:36 09:11:28 11
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:43:05 08:56:11 09:06:40 5
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:07:09 09:18:15 09:18:15 20

Results for Raul Furtado (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2012-05-27 08:32:27 08:51:56 09:08:05 6
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:54:39 09:08:02 09:14:19 11
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:09:39 09:15:38 09:17:29 16
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:53:20 09:06:22 09:18:53 5
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:55:04 09:04:03 09:28:28 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:49:00 10:01:00 10:01:00 26

Results for Teemu Lemmettyla (FIN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 08:40:48 08:58:48 09:10:05 12
IM Germany 2011-07-24 08:36:36 08:47:04 09:15:50 10
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 09:40:23 09:45:34 09:33:57 14
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 09:18:53 09:16:24 09:27:49 9
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:37:54 09:37:46 09:35:01 50
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:34:09 09:31:56 09:31:56 9

Results for David Nasvik (SWE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:38:56 09:01:46 09:10:15 13
Challenge Roth 2011-07-10 08:44:14 09:07:52 09:18:06 16
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 10:29:36 10:12:47 10:12:47 19

Results for Jonas Djurback (SWE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM France 2012-06-24 09:09:28 09:17:16 09:17:16 10

Results for Ted Aas (SWE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 09:10:52 09:20:54 09:20:29 17
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 11:23:43 11:21:33 10:05:39 23
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:08:00 09:15:04 09:20:13 23
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:50:18 09:06:11 09:24:52 17
IM Lanzarote 2005-06-04 10:02:18 10:02:18 10:02:18 19

Results for Paul Hawkins (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2012-07-22 09:10:50 09:11:27 09:21:52 3
IM UK 2011-07-31 09:03:41 09:14:49 09:28:47 7
IM France 2010-06-27 14:16:23 14:38:08 09:42:45 19
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:28:35 09:25:31 09:42:45 10
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:06:40 10:05:06 12:28:44 12
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 14:00:55 14:22:16 14:24:53 25
IM France 2006-06-24 14:15:35 14:28:22 14:28:22 23

Results for Horst Reichel (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:38:20 09:52:49 09:28:34 26
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 08:42:07 08:53:49 09:11:30 4
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 09:28:45 09:43:34 09:43:34 19

Results for Heinrich Sickl (AUT)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:25:50 09:38:30 09:43:16 11
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 10:08:14 10:21:42 09:44:12 22
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 09:01:31 09:13:34 09:36:08 15
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:22:28 09:25:50 09:41:31 15
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:32:21 09:39:44 09:44:40 32
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:16:53 09:24:00 09:45:37 21
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 09:47:30 09:44:54 09:50:19 23
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 09:42:46 09:41:45 09:51:42 17
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:56:35 10:07:41 09:54:19 30
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:46:40 09:59:21 09:50:51 34
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 09:50:20 09:46:01 09:48:13 18
IM Florida 2005-11-05 09:21:53 09:25:58 09:49:09 19
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 09:59:49 10:04:49 10:02:18 22
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 09:59:34 09:59:34 09:59:34 20

Results for Jonas Colting (SWE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 10:03:52 10:05:07 09:50:53 27
IM Korea 2005-08-28 09:39:41 09:33:54 09:33:54 7

Results for Evgeniy Nikitin (RUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2012-07-01 10:10:41 10:23:07 10:23:07 21

Results for Ivan Kharin (RUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2012-07-08 09:56:06 10:10:34 11:26:25 22
IM Austria 2012-07-01 12:27:28 12:42:41 12:42:41 24

Results for Marek Nemcik (SVK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 11:49:01 12:03:38 12:10:25 22
IM Germany 2012-07-08 11:48:31 12:05:43 12:11:11 24
IM Austria 2012-07-01 11:58:50 12:13:28 12:11:52 23
IM Regensburg 2012-06-17 10:58:33 11:08:23 12:11:38 12
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 11:19:16 11:36:20 12:21:56 43
IM Wales 2011-09-11 13:36:17 13:22:45 12:29:14 17
IM Germany 2011-07-24 12:23:10 12:38:14 12:19:41 27
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 11:44:49 12:03:43 12:15:50 12
IM Austria 2011-07-03 10:53:08 11:26:50 12:18:57 19
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 13:27:39 13:38:18 12:36:59 24
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 12:21:51 12:30:36 12:14:50 13
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 12:13:01 12:26:21 12:07:22 28
IM Florida 2008-11-01 10:48:33 11:13:18 11:52:40 39
IM Florida 2007-11-03 12:22:51 12:45:06 12:45:06 53

Results for Ari Saukko (FIN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Erik Strand (SWE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Anu Vaidyanathan (IND)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Karl-Johan Danielsson (SWE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Teemu Kyllonen (GBR)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Pontus Lindberg (SWE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Åsa Lundström (DEN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Kopenhagen 2011-08-01 09:35:31 09:56:27 09:56:27 2

Results for Dana Wagner (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2012-07-01 09:46:10 09:58:06 10:05:29 4
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 10:03:52 10:13:27 10:13:27 15

Results for Rebekka Essmüller (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:51:21 10:06:13 10:15:59 20
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:27:40 10:37:13 10:37:13 12

Results for Stephanie Jones (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 10:04:55 10:17:23 10:21:39 6
IM Florida 2011-11-05 09:33:45 09:59:00 10:23:04 5
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 09:52:40 10:03:47 10:32:00 3
IM France 2011-06-26 11:12:26 11:17:36 10:47:17 12
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:34:31 09:51:43 10:14:59 9
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:29:55 10:28:49 10:28:51 10
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:43:35 10:28:54 10:28:54 8

Results for Emi Sakai (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 10:43:04 10:51:29 10:36:37 7
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 10:28:03 10:21:15 10:21:15 7

Results for Conny Dauben (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 11:15:31 11:29:26 11:00:53 9
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 10:54:21 11:04:44 10:53:54 17
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 10:40:38 10:56:41 10:50:48 13
IM UK 2011-07-31 10:41:39 10:54:47 10:48:42 7
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 10:21:52 10:35:58 10:45:47 7
IM Australia 2010-03-28 10:46:03 10:55:59 10:52:15 6
IM France 2008-06-22 10:34:29 10:42:30 10:47:52 6
IM France 2005-06-19 11:00:38 11:00:38 11:00:38 7

Results for Zsuzsanna Harsanyi (HUN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2010-08-01 11:31:29 11:39:55 11:05:58 5
IM St. George 2010-05-01 12:12:04 12:06:33 10:57:21 11
IM France 2009-06-28 11:07:25 11:15:45 10:35:59 14
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 10:07:34 10:22:00 10:23:15 8
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 10:18:06 10:28:28 10:23:39 6
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 10:34:29 10:33:31 10:21:30 8
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:18:56 10:14:15 10:15:55 35
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:39:52 10:39:14 10:17:06 38
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:52:23 09:52:23 09:52:23 4

Results for Helene Malmkvist (SWE)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Christine Grammer (GER)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM New York 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

There was quite a mixed feedback whether New York was a quick or slow course: A fast swim (with a current) and a slower run course. The results showed that a lot of athletes raced better than their ratings would indicate, resulting in an adjustment (and initial course rating) of 9:23, i.e. a medium quick course, comparable to Melbourne or Cozumel.

Male Results

Jordan Rapp dominated this race with the fastest bike an run splits:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Jordan Rapp USA 00:41:45 04:26:34 02:59:21 08:11:18 08:20:32
2 Maxim Kriat UKR 00:41:04 04:35:55 03:04:15 08:24:32 08:27:00
3 Jozsef Major HUN 00:43:47 04:33:09 03:06:12 08:27:00 08:38:30
4 Trevor Wurtele CAN 00:43:38 04:40:03 03:01:21 08:29:20 09:01:05
5 Markus Thomschke GER 00:42:40 04:33:52 03:09:20 08:30:02 09:06:56
6 TJ Tollakson USA 00:39:15 04:31:54 03:18:16 08:33:01 08:39:30
7 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:41:02 04:36:03 03:14:25 08:34:59 08:48:27
8 Pedro Gomez POR 00:42:37 04:41:05 03:11:01 08:38:40 08:39:03
9 Luke Bell AUS 00:39:08 04:37:54 03:18:52 08:39:20 08:40:59
10 Chris McDonald AUS 00:43:34 04:40:37 03:13:39 08:41:30 08:38:58
11 Christian Brader GER 00:43:44 04:32:44 03:22:05 08:42:08 08:52:43
12 Mike Schifferle SUI 00:45:48 04:45:40 03:06:56 08:45:02 09:00:41
13 Michael Lovato USA 00:40:02 04:55:11 03:06:15 08:46:32 08:37:00
14 Michael Wetzel GER 00:45:07 04:52:58 03:09:40 08:51:26 09:06:18
15 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:41:01 04:35:46 03:33:12 08:54:20 08:33:45
16 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:39:12 04:31:56 03:44:31 08:58:59 08:38:59
17 Kevin Taddonio USA 00:47:53 04:47:58 03:22:00 09:02:52 08:49:20
18 Timothy Marr USA 00:39:11 04:37:59 03:44:42 09:05:27 09:21:08
19 Brendan Halpin USA 00:46:48 05:01:36 03:21:51 09:14:13 09:20:09
20 Stefan Riesen SWI 00:47:33 04:35:37 03:48:15 09:16:08 08:38:43
21 Matjaz Kovac SVN 00:43:36 05:02:59 03:38:13 09:30:11 09:49:10
22 Raymond Botelho USA 00:43:42 04:57:18 04:01:20 09:47:04 09:42:51

Female Results

The race on the women’s side was open for a longer time, but Mary Beth Ellis quickly pulled away from Amy Marsh who led after the bike and was also overtaken by Rebekah Keat:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:40:33 05:04:03 03:14:32 09:02:48 09:08:47
2 Rebekah Keat AUS 00:41:34 05:11:41 03:15:43 09:13:24 09:14:45
3 Amy Marsh USA 00:40:35 05:03:01 03:28:25 09:15:57 09:17:55
4 Sarah Piampiano USA 00:47:14 05:10:49 03:28:29 09:30:29 09:57:08
5 Tamara Kozulina UKR 00:47:23 05:19:02 03:22:27 09:33:23 09:43:44
6 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:45:10 05:13:54 03:32:35 09:36:11 09:37:24
7 Haley Cooper-Scott USA 00:47:17 05:11:11 03:41:53 09:44:17 10:02:58
8 Michelle Mitchell AUS 00:42:59 05:35:24 03:22:50 09:45:42 09:33:32
9 Jacqui Gordon USA 00:45:33 05:23:28 03:35:50 09:48:58 10:03:22
10 Laurel Wassner USA 00:40:36 05:45:28 03:16:32 09:49:24 n/a
11 Kristin Andrews USA 00:47:26 05:35:37 03:22:52 09:50:40 09:50:10
12 Heather Gollnick USA 00:43:18 05:24:40 03:43:03 09:57:44 09:46:23
13 Nina Pekerman ISR 00:45:37 05:28:52 03:42:33 10:01:47 10:07:48
14 Meghan Newcomer USA 00:45:13 05:34:48 03:38:58 10:03:14 n/a
15 Hillary Biscay USA 00:41:33 05:33:11 03:51:56 10:11:40 10:02:22
16 Dede Griesbauer USA 00:40:29 05:27:20 04:54:01 11:07:46 09:48:55

Updated Kona 2012 Odds (after July races)

Now that the July races are over and the first round of Kona qualifiers has been decided, it is time to update the Kona odds.

Men

Some of the top contenders validated their Kona slots in the July races.

Kona2012MenOdds

The main changes are a consequence of the following results:

  • Marino Vanhoenacker won IM Frankfurt, putting him into a solid statistical 2nd biggest favorite for Kona.
  • Andreas Raelert had a sub-standard (for him) results in Frankfurt, so his statistical chances decreased a bit.
  • Cam Brown’s chances decreased a bit – even though he posted a solid result in Roth, it was not on the “winning Kona” level.

Women

There were a few changes on the women’s side as well:

Kona2012WomenOdds

 

Here are the main events resulting in changes:

  • Caroline Steffen won IM Frankfurt in convincing fashion, further closing the gap to Rinnie.
  • Rachel Joyce also had a great result winning in Roth. Maybe she can continue the British dominance in Kona?
  • I finally had to remove Cat Morrison from my Kona odds – she is recovering from an injury and is not going to be able to qualify for Kona 2012. Hopefully she’s going to come back stronger than ever and will be able to play a role in the next years.

Updated TOP 10 Ratings

After all the races in June and July, it was time to update my TOP 10 Ratings page.

Here is a brief look at the changes:

  • After Andreas Raelert’s sub-par (for him) result in Frankfurt, his rating dropped to 8:16:50. This allowed Crowie to move into the first spot with his rating of 8:15:01. Andreas is still second.
  • Dirk Bockel moved up one spot based on his winning result in Regensburg.
  • Julie Dibens hasn’t raced an IM for more than a year, so she dropped out of my ratings. (I still have Chrissie and Karin Thürig in there, their last races were Kona 2011, so they’ll drop out in October.)
  • Similarly, Yvonne van Vlercken hasn’t posted an IM result – she had a number of DNFs. She also dropped out of the ratings.
  • The two “vacated” spots were taken up by Sonja Tajsich (now 8th with a rating of 9:26:20 after racing Challenge Roth) and Linsey Corbin (10th with 9:27:51 after IM Austria).
  • Rebekah Keat moved up a few spots with an improved rating of 9:24:34 – this is a result of adding the Challenge Copenhagen results from 2010 and 2011 (two races she won).

Challenge Kopenhagen 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Challenge Kopenhagen has been going on since 2010. It was won twice by Tim Berkel (who of course also holds the course record with a 8:07:39) and Rebekah Keat (women’s course record of 8:52:42). So the course is pretty quick, with a course rating of 12:54 (similar to IM Germany and IM Brazil).

Male Participants

Tim Berkel is back to defend his title, and he is the race favorite:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Tim Berkel AUS 08:28:10 08:40:36 37
2 Jimmy Johnsen DNK 08:33:02 08:45:35 57
3 Keegan Williams NZL 08:34:48 08:47:24 66
4 Mads Vittrup DEN 08:41:07 08:53:52 102
5 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:42:19 08:55:06 110
6 Aaron Farlow AUS 08:50:54 09:03:53 157
7 Joseph Spindler GER 08:52:30 09:05:32 171
8 Andreas Borch DEN 08:54:59 09:08:04 185
9 Egoitz Zalakain ESP 09:10:44 09:24:13 314
10 Fabian Kremser SWI 09:39:20 09:53:31 521
11 Elmar Heger GER 09:53:16 10:07:47 610
12 Chris Goodfellow GBR n/a unrated n/a
13 Jacob Frandsen DEN n/a unrated n/a
14 Ulrich Konschak GER n/a unrated n/a

After Tim Berkel, the winning odds show a number of athletes that have the potential for the top spot on the podium:

  • Tim Berkel: 46%
  • Keegan Williams: 18%
  • Jimmy Johnsen: 13%
  • Dejan Patrcevic: 11%
  • Mads Vittrup: 6%
  • Aaron Farlow: 5%

Female Participants

On the female side, Rebekah Keat is scheduled to race New York, so she’s not defending her title. In her absence, German Diana Riesler is both the top-rated athlete and the one with the best winning odds:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Diana Riesler GER 09:29:16 09:43:12 45
2 Edith Niederfriniger ITA 09:33:41 09:47:43 59
3 Lisbeth Kristensen SWI 09:36:54 09:51:01 68
4 Wenke Kujala GER 09:42:09 09:56:24 78
5 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 09:51:57 10:06:26 114
6 Katja Konschak GER 09:52:39 10:07:09 116
7 Helene Pallesen DEN 09:52:42 10:07:12 118
8 Julia Bohn GER 10:16:38 10:31:43 192
9 Jessica Crafoord SWE n/a unrated n/a

She is followed by two athletes that have had quite a long break, Edith Niderfriniger and Lisbeth Kristensen:

  • Diana Riesler: 35%
  • Edith Niederfriniger: 24%
  • Lisbeth Kristensen: 19%
  • Katja Konschak: 10%
  • Wenke Kujala: 10%
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