Ironman Germany 2016 (July 3rd) – Predictions

Update June 28th: Miranda Carfrae has won IM Austria, so she is unlikely to race in Frankfurt.

Update June 28th: For the interesting back story of Caroline Livesey, please have a look at my profile on her.

Update July 1st: After the Pro Meeting, it’s clear that a number of athletes from the original startlist won’t be racing. I’ve crossed out all of those who have not signed in.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Normann Stadler (GER)	08:20:50	Lisa Bentley (CAN)	09:15:31
2006	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:13:40	Andrea Steinbecher (GER)	09:16:17
2007	Timo Bracht (GER)	08:09:15	Nicole Leder (GER)	09:04:11
2008	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:59:55	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:51:24
2009	Timo Bracht (GER)	07:59:15	Sandra Wallenhorst (GER)	08:58:08
2010	Andreas Raelert (GER)	08:05:15	Sandra Wallenhorst (GER)	09:04:27
2011	Faris Al-Sultan (GER)	08:13:50	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	09:12:13
2012	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:03:31	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	08:52:33
2013	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	07:59:58	Camilla Pedersen (DEN)	08:56:01
2014	Sebastian Kienle (GER)	07:55:14	Corinne Abraham (GBR)	08:52:40
2015	Jan Frodeno (GER)	07:49:48	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:51:00

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jan Frodeno	GER	00:46:02	04:08:43	02:50:49	07:49:48
2	Sebastian Kienle	GER	00:50:03	04:11:07	02:56:44	08:01:39
3	Andi Boecherer	GER	00:46:56	04:14:05	02:58:14	08:03:49

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	00:52:46	04:47:50	03:06:06	08:51:00
2	Julia Gajer	GER	00:52:47	04:55:22	03:09:04	09:01:58
3	Caroline Steffen	SUI	00:52:42	04:58:52	03:16:26	09:11:55

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:49:48	Jan Frodeno	2015-07-05
Swim	overall	00:42:17	Jan Sibbersen	2004-07-12
Bike	overall	04:08:43	Jan Frodeno	2015-07-05
Run	overall	02:42:33	Timo Bracht	2008-07-06
Total	female	08:51:00	Daniela Ryf	2015-07-05
Swim	female	00:45:04	Amanda Stevens	2012-07-08
Bike	female	04:44:25	Natascha Badmann	2014-07-06
Run	female	02:57:13	Kristin Moeller	2013-07-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Germany is 11:53.

Race Adjustments for IM Germany

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-03:26	00:41	04:40	-04:09	21	-03:26	00:41	04:40	-04:09
2006	12:14	n/a	n/a	n/a	21	04:24	00:41	04:40	-04:09
2007	20:42	01:41	14:05	04:59	35	09:50	01:11	09:23	00:25
2008	23:08	04:28	08:29	06:33	21 of 28	13:10	02:17	09:05	02:28
2009	17:33	02:56	13:26	-00:13	19 of 25	14:02	02:27	10:10	01:48
2010	08:27	00:46	04:58	01:02	30	13:06	02:07	09:08	01:38
2011	08:18	01:28	05:50	01:11	41	12:25	02:00	08:35	01:34
2012	09:31	03:13	04:27	00:45	37	12:03	02:11	07:59	01:27
2013	16:32	02:16	09:16	05:09	69	12:33	02:11	08:09	01:55
2014	12:34	01:59	13:41	01:46	39 of 56	12:33	02:10	08:46	01:54
2015	05:12	-00:29	08:34	-02:32	32 of 44	11:53	01:54	08:45	01:27

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Germany is a P-4000 race and the winners receive an Automatic Qualifier slot. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	08:46:44	08:59:41	00:50:15	04:47:35	03:03:55	100% +0% -0% (5)	1
2	2	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	08:54:21	09:08:15	00:53:21	05:00:05	02:55:55	32% +20% -49% (13)	(3)
3	32	Melissa Hauschildt	AUS	09:05:44	09:32:16	00:53:28	04:57:45	03:09:32	39% +61% -0% (2)	(35)
4	8	Diana Riesler	GER	09:14:17	09:31:45	00:55:37	04:54:17	03:19:22	46% +14% -40% (18)	32
5	4	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:16:01	09:35:55	01:00:27	05:09:43	03:00:51	83% +15% -2% (17)	40
6	23	Astrid Stienen	GER	09:22:04	09:46:33	00:56:11	05:00:11	03:20:42	54% +15% -31% (8)	62
7	6	Daniela Saemmler	GER	09:23:10	09:40:22	00:53:09	05:04:09	03:20:52	85% +0% -15% (7)	49
8	33	Emma Bilham	SUI	09:23:55	09:48:12	00:52:41	05:09:03	03:17:11	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(65)
9	25	Katja Konschak	GER	09:29:51	09:59:46	00:50:08	05:19:26	03:15:17	51% +25% -24% (15)	89
10	5	Natascha Schmitt	GER	09:31:11	10:11:37	00:51:41	05:19:17	03:15:14	36% +16% -48% (5)	111
11	12	Dimity-Lee Duke	AUS	09:36:13	09:45:48	00:58:44	05:12:05	03:20:23	76% +24% -0% (9)	61
12	22	Bianca Steurer	AUT	09:36:29	09:53:23	00:56:02	05:15:36	03:19:51	74% +26% -0% (4)	77
13	27	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	09:36:31	09:57:37	00:52:54	05:16:08	03:22:28	30% +23% -46% (6)	84
14	24	Verena Walter	GER	09:38:18	10:02:37	00:57:21	05:09:29	03:26:28	53% +29% -18% (5)	94
15	7	Evi Neuscheler	GER	09:38:32	09:55:05	01:01:03	05:05:03	03:27:25	60% +40% -0% (3)	(80)
16	10	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	09:43:39	10:17:00	00:53:41	05:19:02	03:25:56	39% +35% -26% (9)	119
17	14	Katharina Grohmann	GER	09:44:32	10:05:32	01:07:59	05:12:03	03:19:30	100% +0% -0% (11)	100
18	19	Caroline Livesey	GBR	09:48:44	10:08:45	00:58:33	05:15:25	03:29:45	61% +0% -39% (6)	106
19	26	Mariana Andrade	BRA	09:50:16	10:17:33	00:58:04	05:14:04	03:33:08	14% +49% -37% (11)	124
20	13	Christine Fletcher	CAN	09:57:34	10:10:32	00:56:42	05:19:25	03:36:27	92% +8% -0% (20)	109
21	17	Petra Krejcova	CZE	09:59:14	10:25:02	01:00:50	05:33:11	03:20:12	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(151)
22	9	Celia Kuch	GER	10:01:26	10:19:42	01:01:38	05:18:07	03:36:41	79% +21% -0% (17)	132
23	16	Helena Herrero Gomez	ESP	10:06:14	10:30:23	00:58:33	05:42:18	03:20:23	25% +0% -75% (5)	160
24	29	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:07:46	10:54:33	00:55:54	05:16:16	03:50:36	22% +3% -75% (21)	(174)
25	28	Nina Kuhn	GER	10:09:26	10:35:41	00:59:08	05:28:28	03:36:50	62% +0% -38% (2)	(167)
26	18	Angela Kuehnlein	GER	10:11:22	10:29:50	01:00:19	05:31:55	03:34:08	34% +27% -39% (5)	158
	15	Lotty Harari	PAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	51	Sebastian Kienle	GER	08:00:16	08:14:29	00:48:15	04:14:21	02:52:41	85% +12% -3% (11)	3
2	53	Andi Boecherer	GER	08:05:01	08:32:01	00:45:14	04:16:44	02:58:04	58% +39% -3% (12)	27
3	55	Bas Diederen	NED	08:08:01	08:30:09	00:45:55	04:23:46	02:53:19	42% +10% -48% (15)	22
4	60	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	08:10:13	08:30:56	00:45:24	04:30:23	02:49:27	56% +14% -31% (13)	(24)
5	56	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	08:11:14	08:27:01	00:45:57	04:27:30	02:52:47	14% +63% -23% (11)	16
6	112	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:12:39	08:23:10	00:46:14	04:22:39	02:58:46	90% +0% -10% (24)	8
7	90	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:18:24	08:32:17	00:52:25	04:23:07	02:57:52	89% +11% -0% (13)	28
8	72	Christian Kramer	GER	08:20:53	08:38:43	00:45:49	04:30:47	02:59:17	72% +6% -22% (17)	53
9	62	Denis Chevrot	FRA	08:23:32	08:36:57	00:45:20	04:36:20	02:56:52	32% +12% -55% (8)	46
10	69	Joe Gambles	AUS	08:23:57	08:40:16	00:46:53	04:32:54	02:59:10	44% +7% -50% (7)	(56)
11	59	Marko Albert	EST	08:25:34	08:36:12	00:45:25	04:33:42	03:01:27	91% +6% -3% (14)	42
12	97	Victor Del Corral	ESP	08:26:28	08:34:42	00:53:44	04:36:06	02:51:38	70% +0% -30% (13)	39
13	115	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:27:12	08:46:09	00:46:03	04:33:37	03:02:31	41% +15% -44% (9)	74
14	58	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:27:16	08:58:33	00:47:05	04:30:52	03:04:19	26% +0% -74% (6)	(115)
15	94	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:27:31	08:46:01	00:50:09	04:32:57	02:59:25	60% +0% -40% (6)	(72)
16	116	Jeremy Jurkiewicz	FRA	08:29:41	08:45:10	00:45:58	04:41:34	02:57:09	62% +0% -38% (11)	(70)
17	61	Alberto Casadei	ITA	08:31:58	08:48:52	00:45:53	04:42:46	02:58:19	38% +16% -46% (7)	83
18	96	Anton Blokhin	UKR	08:35:14	08:57:29	00:47:13	04:39:45	03:03:16	56% +3% -42% (19)	112
19	67	Herve Faure	FRA	08:35:46	08:50:23	00:49:29	04:38:02	03:03:15	45% +0% -55% (8)	(88)
20	70	Esben Hovgaard	DEN	08:36:37	08:55:54	00:51:54	04:36:51	03:02:52	35% +25% -40% (9)	105
21	85	Pascal Ramali	GER	08:36:51	09:04:29	00:56:57	04:31:01	03:03:52	49% +0% -51% (2)	(146)
22	117	Markus Thomschke	GER	08:37:14	08:57:39	00:51:25	04:32:26	03:08:22	62% +12% -26% (15)	113
23	87	Sylvain Sudrie	FRA	08:41:00	09:03:26	00:48:03	04:41:30	03:06:26	53% +0% -47% (2)	(138)
24	109	Gudmund Snilstveit	NOR	08:41:33	08:59:30	00:54:57	04:34:15	03:07:21	61% +28% -11% (7)	122
25	111	Christian Brader	GER	08:41:36	08:54:08	00:54:20	04:43:57	02:58:19	84% +6% -10% (32)	97
26	104	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	08:43:12	09:05:52	00:51:16	04:37:03	03:09:53	38% +62% -0% (4)	152
27	120	Bertrand Billard	FRA	08:44:43	09:09:16	00:47:37	04:35:24	03:16:42	9% +17% -73% (7)	163
28	78	Matic Modic	SLO	08:44:54	09:04:24	00:53:13	04:42:02	03:04:39	47% +39% -13% (6)	144
29	95	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:45:13	09:02:15	00:57:54	04:39:38	03:02:41	84% +12% -4% (54)	130
30	68	Marton Flander	HUN	08:45:59	09:08:38	00:47:32	04:55:17	02:58:10	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(161)
31	80	Julian Mutterer	GER	08:47:05	09:09:47	00:50:07	04:48:11	03:03:47	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(166)
32	86	Daniil Sapunov	UKR	08:49:05	09:11:52	00:46:52	04:50:28	03:06:45	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(175)
33	121	Ivan Risti	ITA	08:51:27	09:06:43	00:47:39	04:47:41	03:11:07	77% +0% -23% (5)	154
34	114	Will Clarke	GBR	08:52:22	09:20:51	00:48:30	04:40:17	03:18:36	37% +0% -63% (2)	(198)
35	79	Gergö Molnar	HUN	08:53:51	09:08:36	00:48:27	04:47:39	03:12:45	58% +0% -42% (6)	160
36	92	Denis Sketako	SLO	08:57:28	09:17:42	00:56:11	04:44:23	03:11:54	100% +0% -0% (2)	(194)
37	119	Michael Davidson	ZAF	08:58:39	09:13:32	00:54:43	04:50:54	03:08:01	54% +0% -46% (4)	179
38	65	Hywel Davies	GBR	09:08:26	09:24:30	00:57:44	04:51:17	03:14:24	95% +5% -0% (6)	(206)
39	75	Felipe De Oliveira Manente	BRA	09:11:33	09:37:20	00:51:38	04:55:42	03:19:14	18% +7% -75% (8)	241
40	71	Ivan Jezko	SVK	09:12:21	09:43:49	00:57:39	04:52:49	03:16:53	39% +33% -28% (9)	254
41	74	Michael Louys	BEL	09:15:03	09:35:44	00:59:56	04:49:47	03:20:20	55% +15% -30% (7)	238
42	110	Thomas Bosch	GER	09:18:47	09:42:50	00:57:32	04:59:28	03:16:47	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(252)
43	82	Young Hwan Oh	KOR	09:20:37	09:57:49	00:59:20	04:59:04	03:17:12	22% +32% -46% (4)	(272)
44	118	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:20:54	09:38:41	00:56:10	04:47:39	03:32:06	73% +25% -1% (14)	246
45	84	Alfred Rahm	GER	09:27:15	09:50:54	01:02:06	04:58:10	03:21:59	60% +1% -40% (17)	263
46	113	Lukas Polan	CZE	09:30:04	09:56:55	01:00:12	04:59:39	03:25:12	30% +15% -55% (9)	271
47	73	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	09:32:29	10:13:14	00:59:17	05:13:05	03:15:07	56% +5% -39% (18)	285
48	107	David Jilek	CZE	09:33:15	09:53:28	00:57:29	04:57:06	03:33:39	74% +0% -26% (5)	266
49	83	Gilian Oriet	SUI	09:37:53	09:54:53	00:55:39	05:01:05	03:36:09	26% +12% -62% (9)	268
50	66	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	09:38:52	09:59:28	01:06:36	05:05:10	03:22:06	66% +15% -19% (7)	276
51	91	Remmert Wielinga	NED	10:00:03	10:52:28	01:10:06	04:57:28	03:47:29	7% +11% -82% (6)	(298)
52	89	Michal Volejnik	CZE	10:54:41	11:22:52	01:01:30	05:16:11	04:32:00	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(303)
53	81	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:26:49	12:04:43	01:09:16	05:38:51	04:33:42	39% +20% -41% (33)	303
	63	Maciej Chmura	POL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	77	Rayco Marrero Avero	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	88	Kevin Thewes	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	98	Olivier Esser	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	99	David Krupicka	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	105	Alexander Schilling	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	106	Youri Severin	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	108	Petr Bednar	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	122	Timo Moeschk	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

KPR Situation

Female Race Participants

Similar to Sebi, all Daniela needs to make it to Kona is to finish an Ironman. As there are only 28 July slots for the women, they need about 4.500 points to qualify.

Emma Bilham (3.515) and Bianca Steuerer (3.235) are the best placed athletes, they should be okay with a sixth place. Dimity-Lee Duke already has five results, so even with her 3.330 points she needs to finish fifth – as do Kristin Möller and Diana Riesler. Daniela Sämmler (2.400) and Verena Walter (2.510) are looking for a fourth place. The next group needs a podium finish – Mariana Andrade, Katharina Grohmann, Caroline Livesey, Natascha Schmitt and Astrid Stienen all have between 2.100 and 1.500 points.

Male Race Participants

Before Frankfurt, a lot of athletes are looking to score well in order to get the points needed to qualify. Eneko Llanos is the only athlete who is already safe for Kona, he wants to race Frankfurt to work on his race plan. Sebastian Kienle, Tim O’Donnell and probably Andi Boecherer just need an Ironman finish in order to be eligible for a July slot.

Next up is a group of athletes that are close to the projected cutoff of 3.500 points: Michael Weiss (3.470) and Markus Thomschke (3.130) are closest but already have five results. Similar to Marko Albert (3.095) they should be okay with a 9th place (855 points). The French group of Jeremy Jurkiewicz, Bertrand Billard and Denis Chevrot are around 2.400 points, they have to look for a seventh place (1.335 points). There is another group around 2.000 points (Christian Kramer who also has five results already, Victor Del Corral, Joe Gambles, Clemente Alsonso) they probably need a 6th or better (1.670).

Winning Odds

Female Race Participants

Mirinda Carfrae is on the startlist, but probably only as a backup for Austria the week before. Therefore a showdown with Kona champion Daniela Ryf will likely have to wait until October. Even with Rinny on the start line, Dani is the clear favorite and if she is anywhere close to last year’s form, there is no doubt that she will continue her winning streak. If anyone is going to challenge her, it could be Mel Hauschildt. She has been injured for some time, she is rumored to be in a really good bike shape and hopefully she’ll be able to run well on race day.

After last year’s second place by Julia Gajer, a lot of German women are eying the podium: Diana Riesler didn’t have a good race at Lanzarote, Kristin Möller still needs more points after a fifth place in Brasil, Astrid Stienen has had a long focused build towards Frankfurt this year and Daniela Sämmler wants to show that her win at IM Mallorca was just a step on her way to Kona.

• Daniela Ryf: 45% (1-1)
• Mirinda Carfrae: 30% (2-1)
• Diana Riesler: 8% (11-1)
• Melissa Hauschildt: 8% (12-1)

Male Race Participants

Sebastian Kienle, 2014 winner of IM Frankfurt and IM Hawaii, is back in Frankfurt to reclaim the first of the titles he lost to Jan Frodeno last year. Sebi is the favorite going into the race but he faces strong competition. Last year Andi Boecherer had a great race to finish in third, this year his prep races have been going well and he seems to be ready to challenge Sebi. Tim O’Donnell is an interesting addition to the field – after his second place in Kona he wants to show he can race well against the Germans in their home country. Bas Diederen has raced well in Frankfurt a number of times, and the 2013 champion Eneko Llanos has hopefully figured out his stomach issues on the run. I’m be pretty sure that it’s going to take at least a sub-8 finish to win the race – even if Frodo’s course record from last year will be hard to beat.

• Sebastian Kienle: 45% (1-1)
• Andi Boecherer: 18% (4-1)
• Clemente Alonso McKernan: 12% (8-1)
• Bas Diederen: 8% (11-1)
• Timothy O’Donnell: 7% (14-1)
• Eneko Llanos: 3% (30-1)