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August 2019

Female Podium at IM Frankfurt

A lot has been written about IM Germany at Frankfurt: Anne Haug not racing with an injury, the Frodo vs. Sebi duel, Patrick’s sub-standard day, or Sarah True being forced to abandon almost in sight of the finish line. Some of these stories have been continued right after Frankfurt, some are analyzed as precursors for Kona, and most will get a new chapter in Kona. But a few weeks after Frankfurt (and my nice vacation right after Frankfurt), I feel that a closer look at the athletes who finished on the female podium is still missing. So without wanting to take away from the other athletes and their often still developing stories, here are more details about the female podium in Frankfurt!

First, here’s a table with the results of the athletes mentioned in is post:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Skye Moench USA 00:57:32 04:58:39 03:14:01 09:15:31 -31:34 US$ 30,000
2 Imogen Simmonds SUI 00:52:42 05:03:30 03:24:38 09:26:01 n/a US$ 15,000
3 Jen Annett CAN 00:59:26 05:12:28 03:19:07 09:36:25 -03:45 US$ 8,000
4 Amelia Watkinson NZL 00:52:41 05:14:49 03:36:11 09:49:32 n/a US$ 6,500
Sarah True USA 00:52:40 05:03:42 DNF
Daniela Bleymehl GER 00:57:48 04:59:00 DNF
Kimberley Morrison GBR 00:57:37 06:42:29 DNF

In addition, here is the race development graph showing who was in the lead and who was how far back:

FRA WPRO RaceDevelopment

Before the Race

The women who ended up on the podium at the Ironman European Championships in Frankfurt were lining up with different expectations.

Jen Annett was the only one who was invited to the pre-race press conference on Thursday. She was excited to race in Frankfurt: “I have never traveled outside of North America, so this is a huge new experience for me. There were a few reasons why I chose Ironman Frankfurt this year. Timing, more Kona spots, more opportunity to travel this year, and I’ve been told that racing in Europe is an amazing experience. Going into this race, I was nervous and worried. Not because of the race itself, but a heatwave had come through Europe and the forecasted temp for race day was 39 C. I have NEVER had a good race in extreme heat, and they usually end with me puking my way through the run. I have been working on my hydration and nutrition very closely since last year, trying to figure out patterns and causes for things. It is inevitable that heat will affect everyone, and I really felt that race day was going to come down to the one that could handle the heat the best.”

Jen PressEvent

Skye Moench had raced in Frankfurt the year before, finishing in seventh place. Since then she had finished second at IM Switzerland and was able to post a sub-9 finish for a fourth place at IM Arizona. She had trained well in leading into the 2019 season and was eager to find out where she was at: “I never expect anything from a race, and given it was my first Ironman of the year, and at the peak of the European heatwave, I wasn’t sure how things would play out! I do expect a lot from myself, and I could tell from how training was feeling, and how my few 70.3 races before Frankfurt went, that I was feeling good and prepared for a solid Ironman. I have been steadily improving under Cam, so I was excited to see what I could produce in Frankfurt.”

While Skye and Jen were thinking about Kona qualifying on a good day, Imogen Simmonds didn’t really know what to expect from Frankfurt: She was just getting ready for her debut on the long distance. Coming off a dominating win at 70.3 Luxembourg she was clearly someone to watch, but there is a long list of promising rookies who never managed to replicate their 70.3 successes.

Swim

As was expected before the race, the small female field was quickly strung out. At the front of the race it was Sarah True who was setting the pace, but Imo and another “Iron-rookie”, Amelia Watkinson, were able to stay on Sarah’s feet. They started to build a solid lead: At the Australian Exit after 1.8k they were already two minutes ahead of the next group with Daniela Bleymehl, Kim Morrison and Skye. Jen was working to stay with them but had already lost 24 seconds to them.

The groups stayed together but the gaps between them got larger until the end of the swim: Sarah was first out of the water, closely followed by Amelia and Imo. Skye, Kim and Dani started the bike five minutes back and clearly had their work cut out for them. Skye says, “I had a terrible start. I spent most of the first part of the swim just catching up to Daniela and Kim. I then took the lead of our little group after we dove back in after the Australian exit. I didn’t know if they were on my feet or not, but I was just focused on putting out my best swim performance since I knew I was not with the front ladies and likely behind where I wanted to be.”

Jen was another two minutes back and started the bike in tenth place. “The swim start was a beach start, which is usually pretty disastrous for me. However, this start went well, and I found some feet right away. The field here was a little stronger in the swim, and I knew I was one of the slowest in the field. My goal was not to be last out of the water, so I really needed to hang onto those feet. I was able to do this until the last km, where I got separated from the group on one of the turns. I still had a 59-minute swim which was nothing to complain about in my books!”

Bike

The pace in the early part of the bike was clearly set by Imo. Sarah decided right away not to stick with her – Imo put more than a minute and a half into her in the first 20k, and after 30k Amelia also stopped to match Imo’s pace.

Imo Lap1 Bike

Imo continued to extend her lead for the first bike loop, and by 90k she was seven minutes ahead of her next competitors. “I just get too excited when I’m on my bike .. thought it was a 70.3 and maybe I went out a little too hard, and then remembered that I still had another loop and a marathon to run.”

While Imo was riding alone at the front, a bigger group had formed behind her: Sarah and Amelia had fallen back to Dani, Kim and Skye and the five of them were riding together. Skye felt good in the first loop: “Dani was definitely setting the pace. I have never raced with Dani or Kim before, but I knew they were both strong riders, so trusted that we were keeping a respectable pace.” After 80k, Kim fell back – just after moving to the front of the group she caught a flat on her front wheel that she wasn’t able to fix with the pit stop she was carrying. She continued her race after waiting 90 minutes for tech support but then dropped out after the end of the bike to save her legs for the next race.

Jen is usually one of the strongest females on the bike, but instead of making up time she was losing more and more ground to the front. By the end of the first lap, she was more than 17 minutes behind Imo and more than ten minutes behind the chase group. “I was having one of those days where I just didn’t feel comfortable on my bike right from the beginning. Maybe I was stressed about the heat, but I just couldn’t relax. My back seized up by 80km and my legs were burning. The longer I rode, the worse it got and the lower my power was. I even had to stop and stretch on the side of the road so I could continue. I honestly thought about dropping out as I really didn’t see how I was going to be able to run well with how my legs felt.”

Gaps started to appear in the chase group at the start of the second loop when Skye felt they needed to push harder: “I started to feel like we weren’t catching Imo fast enough and that the effort wasn’t hard enough, so not too far into the second loop I rode up to the front and no one came with me! I didn’t necessarily plan to break away, but I was riding solo for a while. Eventually Sarah made her way back up to me, and I led the charge to T2 and catching Imo.” By 120k the gap was down to five minutes, at 150k just three minutes remained, and coming back into Frankfurt Skye and Sarah were able to ride up to Imo. “When we finally caught Imo I was really starting to feel the heat. My head was very hot in my helmet and my back was hot as well. I was starting to feel a bit foggy in the head from the heat and was telling myself to focus, so I knew I had to cool off as much as possible at the next aid station if I wanted to have a nice dismount and start the marathon. I was able to cool down at the next aid station (thank you volunteers for the ice-cold water bottles!!) and once I got off the bike and took my helmet off, I felt totally fine – still hot, but I was thinking clearly again.” Skye, Sarah and Imo reached T2 within seconds of each other with Dani just 20 seconds back.

Skye T2

Run

Within her first few steps out of the T2 tent, Sarah asserted her position as the nominally strongest runner. Imo was impressed: “Chapeau to Sarah for setting such a brave pace for the run. When I saw you flash past out of T2 I was in awe.” Sarah quickly moved away from Imo and Skye who were running within seconds of each other in the first of four run loops, but Skye was focused on her own race: “We all started very close. My coach told me we weren’t racing the first loop, just eating and drinking, so that’s what I did. I know from prior experience how tough the last 10km of an Ironman marathon are, so I was just trying to set myself up for a strong finish. The heat was concerning, so while I was racing, I was almost more concerned about just making sure I stayed with it all day. I pulled away from Imo pretty early on in the run. She started a bit quicker than I did, but I settled in and caught her about 5km in and then stayed ahead the rest of the race.”

The number of contenders was further diminished when Dani felt the effect of a race week bug. She was already struggling towards the end of the bike and she ended her race after 4k on the run, disappointed after what was intended to be her main summer race.

This also meant that the gap behind the leaders got even larger: After the first loop Amelia was running in fourth place 16 minutes back, Jen followed in fifth another four minutes behind: “I knew I was somewhere around sixth place heading out on the run. It took a good 5km to get into a groove, but my legs and back felt a lot better than I thought they would. Every aid station I put ice down the front and back of my suit, sponges tucked in my neck and water over the head. Stay cool and hydrated was what I kept telling myself. I was not expecting a fast run in the heat, and kept my pace conservative as I was terrified of overheating.”

Everyone was forced to deal with the blazing sunshine and temperatures close to 40°C (more than 100°F), and while the second and third loops of the run didn’t change things dramatically, the positions seemed to solidify: Sarah extended her lead while Skye was putting more and more distance between herself and Imo who was still having a firm grip on third place. Jen had a solid run and was able to overtake Amelia for fourth place: “By halfway, I had moved into fourth and no one had caught me. I wasn’t feeling the heat barely at all and my stomach felt great. It was still a long way to go, I knew I was in good shape.” At the start of the fourth loop, the smallest distance between the leading athletes was five minutes between Skye and Imo in second and third.

Skye had some energy left for the fourth loop and was clearly the fastest runner at the end of the race. She was making up ground to Sarah who was starting to struggle with the effects of overheating and probably underfueling. Skye slowly started to eat into Sarah’s lead, but even at 41k (the last split before the finish) the gap had only come down two minutes and she was still more than five minutes behind. “I wasn’t even going to try to run down Sarah because she was probably out of reach for me. I felt confident in my ability to stay strong and smart for the whole marathon, so I focused on running my own race and seeing how the race played out. I had no idea that Sarah was suffering so badly at the end of the run. I saw her briefly at one of the out and backs on the last loop, just barely, so I knew she was still in the race and several minutes ahead, at that. I was settled into second and was preparing for an American 1-2 at Frankfurt, and both of us getting our Kona slots.”

With less than one kilometer to go, Sarah collapsed and had to be taken out of the race. All of a sudden, Skye was in the lead: “When I hit the 1km to go mark I saw the lead cyclist. I thought, ‘that’s weird, they must have let Sarah go early’ (usually they pull off the course at the last minute, right around when the finish carpet starts). I didn’t think much of it, then a few seconds later that same cyclist starts riding with me. I look behind me just to double-check and see that it said ‘1st Female’ on the bike. The man riding said to me, ‘Congratulations, Skye. This is your race now. You’re in the lead. Sarah isn’t going to make it to the finish.’ In disbelief, I responded ‘ARE YOU SERIOUS?!’ and he kindly responded ‘Yes! Enjoy this moment. Congratulations!’ At that point I was totally shocked – I had no time to even process that I was about to win one of the biggest Ironman events in our sport. I immediately thought ‘I have to get to that line first!’ because at that point, I didn’t know if there were any big movers behind me, and I’ve been passed in the final 1km of an Ironman before. I still had no idea what happened to Sarah. I think I even asked the lead cyclist what happened to Sarah, but he didn’t have much of an answer.”

Skye’s tenacious work all day was rewarded with the win at the 2019 European Championships.

Skye Win

Imo also had to work hard and she was losing more time to Skye and was even running a bit slower than Sarah during the fourth run loop. But she had things under control and was elated to finish in second place. “They said it wasn’t a PB day but that’s a PB for me and officially an ‘Ironman’. Beginner’s luck got a 2nd place for me at Ironman Frankfurt European Championship and Kona bound.”

Third place went to Jen who was very happy with her solid heat marathon. “By the time I was halfway through my last lap, I had lost all hopes of making the podium. I had no idea how far ahead first and second were, but I had a feeling they were out of reach. It was a HUGE surprise that the third-place biker jumped out at me in the last kilometer, informing me that I was now in third! Unfortunately Sarah had collapsed with less than a km to go. I was devastated for her, but excited for myself. This was not the way I wanted to make it to the podium, but it was how it worked out this day. Third place at the European Champs felt amazing, but unfortunately was one spot out of Kona Qualifying. The fact that I performed well in the heat was enough to make me extremely happy with my race. I now have the confidence to race in super-hot conditions, and I know I could have pushed a little harder. Now it’s crunch time to Ironman Canada to get that Kona spot!”

Postscript

At the awards ceremony on Monday after the race, Skye Moench and Imo Simmonds accepted their Kona slots. One month after Frankfurt, Skye was able to take her first 70.3 win at Boulder in early August, while Imo has taken a break before starting her build for the big autumn races.

Most of the other athletes mentioned in this post are also able to race at the World Championships: Daniela Bleymehl had already qualified in 2018 by winning IM Italy. Jen Annett raced IM Canada four weeks after Frankfurt and got her Kona slot by finishing second. Even though Kimberley Morrison was once again overtaken in the finish chute, she got her slot at IM Tallinn with a third place. Sarah True managed to get the very last slot for Kona 2019 by finishing second at IM Mont Tremblant in mid-August.

It’ll be interesting to see how these women are going to perform in Kona.

Photo Credits: All photos by Ingo Kutsche (@ingo_kutsche_photo), used with permission.


There’s going to be a lot more information about Kona and the Kona Pro field in my “Kona 2019 Rating Report” that you can already pre-order here.

Ironman Wales 2019 (Sept 15) – Seedings

IMWales_LogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 09:04:21 Kristin Liepold (GER) 10:01:19
2012 Sylvain Rota (FRA) 08:52:43 Regula Rohrbach (SUI) 09:45:09
2013 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 09:09:10 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:51:21
2014 Matt Trautman (ZAF) 09:07:28 Amy Forshaw (GBR) 10:57:26
2015 Jesse Thomas (USA) 08:57:33 Anja Ippach (GER) 09:56:31
2016 Marc Duelsen (GER) 09:01:39 Darbi Roberts (USA) 10:00:17
2017 Cameron Wurf (AUS) 09:07:03 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 10:11:20
2018 Matt Trautman (ZAF) 08:53:21 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:52:37

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Matt Trautman ZAF 00:51:10 04:54:47 02:59:25 08:53:21
2 Philip Graves GBR 00:48:54 04:56:15 03:05:27 09:00:13
3 Gustavo Rodriguez Iglesias ESP 00:53:40 05:01:28 03:04:49 09:09:50

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:00:11 05:28:36 03:15:03 09:52:37
2 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:51:44 05:39:32 03:24:35 10:05:41
3 Nikki Bartlett GBR 01:00:14 05:32:05 03:32:49 10:14:43

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:52:43 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Harry Wiltshire 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Daniel Halksworth 2012-09-16
Bike overall 04:54:47 Matt Trautman 2018-09-09
Run overall 02:48:01 Jeremy Jurkiewicz 2011-09-11
Total female 09:45:09 Regula Rohrbach 2012-09-16
Swim female 00:47:55 Anja Ippach 2011-09-11
Bike female 05:28:36 Lucy Gossage 2018-09-09
Run female 03:02:28 Kristin Liepold 2011-09-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wales is – 28:43.

Race Adjustments for IM Wales

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 -25:00 04:21 -27:13 -02:09 22 -25:00 04:21 -27:13 -02:09
2012 -00:49 05:01 -22:03 16:12 25 -12:54 04:41 -24:39 07:03
2013 -30:19 01:00 -26:50 -04:30 22 -18:43 03:27 -25:22 03:12
2014 -43:48 -04:11 -30:07 -09:31 14 of 16 -24:59 01:33 -26:34 00:01
2015 -34:02 -03:51 -28:51 -01:21 22 of 26 -26:48 00:28 -27:01 -00:15
2016 -15:50 05:14 -20:21 -00:44 15 of 18 -24:58 01:16 -25:55 -00:20
2017 -43:10 00:15 -36:38 -06:48 18 of 27 -27:34 01:07 -27:26 -01:15
2018 -36:48 -00:14 -26:17 -10:17 20 of 22 -28:43 00:57 -27:18 -02:23

Kona slots and Prize Money

IM Wales has 1m+1f Pro Kona slot(s). It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$, paying 6 deep.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 4% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 17 Joe Skipper (KQ) GBR 08:46:02 08:24:28 00:50:58 04:58:56 05:54:55 02:51:07 59% +6% -34% (25) 32
2 15 Philip Graves GBR 08:57:00 08:52:53 00:48:14 04:59:33 05:52:48 03:04:12 26% +25% -49% (13) 118
3 21 Peru Alfaro San Ildefonso ESP 08:58:14 08:36:21 00:46:24 05:10:46 06:02:10 02:56:04 75% +0% -25% (6) 65
4 16 Romain Guillaume * FRA 09:04:55 08:37:55 00:48:10 05:01:39 05:54:48 03:10:07 47% +3% -51% (38) 70
5 42 Diego Van Looy BEL 09:07:16 08:44:56 01:00:55 05:14:33 06:20:28 02:46:48 100% +0% -0% (7) 88
6 19 Bryan McCrystal IRL 09:07:17 09:01:03 00:56:01 04:53:29 05:54:30 03:12:47 30% +19% -51% (9) (151)
7 18 Victor Del Corral ESP 09:07:19 08:45:00 00:54:31 05:09:53 06:09:24 02:57:55 37% +0% -63% (22) (89)
8 24 Arnaud Guilloux FRA 09:09:53 08:55:17 00:49:39 05:12:53 06:07:32 03:02:21 26% +74% -0% (2) (129)
9 20 Dylan McNeice NZL 09:11:52 08:44:31 00:45:20 05:08:23 05:58:43 03:13:09 49% +25% -26% (21) 87
10 38 Paul Ruttmann AUT 09:14:58 09:02:40 00:54:30 05:07:33 06:07:02 03:07:56 0% +64% -36% (3) (156)
11 43 Christian Haupt GER 09:15:35 09:00:57 00:53:23 05:14:28 06:12:52 03:02:43 60% +0% -40% (3) (150)
12 25 Reece Barclay * GBR 09:16:04 08:56:08 00:47:11 05:19:50 06:12:01 03:04:03 56% +0% -44% (2) (133)
13 36 Fabian Rahn GER 09:17:38 08:52:58 00:59:07 05:14:24 06:18:31 02:59:07 75% +0% -25% (6) 119
14 30 Maximilian Hammerle AUT 09:18:02 09:03:12 00:57:55 05:15:22 06:18:17 02:59:45 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (158)
15 35 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:21:28 09:00:11 00:50:44 05:16:54 06:12:38 03:08:50 48% +0% -52% (18) (148)
16 27 Vicenc Castella Serra * ESP 09:30:30 09:04:58 00:56:35 05:27:40 06:29:15 03:01:15 77% +0% -23% (5) 162
17 34 Wouter Monchy BEL 09:35:16 09:19:55 00:50:20 05:23:45 06:19:06 03:16:10 35% +22% -43% (10) 208
18 40 Till Schramm GER 09:40:10 09:17:43 00:54:01 05:21:02 06:20:04 03:20:06 74% +12% -14% (11) (204)
19 32 Felipe De Oliveira Manente * BRA 09:40:32 09:25:32 00:53:23 05:29:59 06:28:22 03:12:10 38% +3% -59% (11) (216)
20 39 Christoph Schlagbauer AUT 09:54:47 10:08:42 00:56:50 05:28:25 06:30:15 03:24:32 6% +10% -84% (5) (257)
22 Sam Pictor * GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
26 Joeri Ameye BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
28 Robert Drake GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Matteo Fontana * ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
31 Thomas Huwiler SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
33 Arnaud Margot SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
37 Ger Redmond IRL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
41 Stefan Schumacher (KQ) GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 10% of a typical Kona field.

# Bib Name Nat Expected Rating ESwim EBike ET2 ERun Consistency Overall
1 1 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:45:12 09:17:24 00:58:30 05:30:16 06:33:46 03:11:26 98% +0% -2% (20) (20)
2 2 Laura Siddall (KQ) GBR 09:46:44 09:15:41 00:57:22 05:31:05 06:33:26 03:13:18 86% +12% -2% (20) 17
3 10 Alexandra Tondeur * BEL 09:51:13 09:26:47 00:58:10 05:40:19 06:43:29 03:07:44 39% +29% -32% (7) 35
4 5 Anja Ippach * GER 09:56:41 09:30:09 00:51:36 05:27:08 06:23:43 03:32:58 66% +2% -32% (14) 43
5 3 Manon Genet * FRA 10:05:30 09:39:44 00:56:23 05:37:07 06:38:30 03:27:00 11% +52% -37% (6) 57
6 4 Rebecca Clarke NZL 10:10:28 09:54:14 00:48:35 05:41:29 06:35:04 03:35:24 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (74)
7 6 Melanie McQuaid * CAN 10:42:11 10:15:46 00:55:12 05:57:33 06:57:44 03:44:27 47% +0% -53% (6) 94
8 9 Maggie Rusch USA 10:43:56 10:22:21 01:02:51 06:00:38 07:08:29 03:35:27 67% +9% -24% (7) (104)
9 7 Sabrina Harpaintner GER 10:44:11 10:27:02 00:59:47 06:09:05 07:13:52 03:30:19 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (107)
8 Simone Mitchell GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Joe Skipper: 51% (1-1)
  • Philip Graves: 22% (4-1)
  • Peru Alfaro San Ildefonso: 14% (6-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 4% (25-1)
  • Diego Van Looy: 3% (29-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 2% (42-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 2% (54-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Lucy Gossage: 59% (1-1)
  • Laura Siddall: 23% (3-1)
  • Alexandra Tondeur: 15% (6-1)
  • Anja Ippach: 3% (37-1)

Challenge Almere (Sept 14th) – Entry List

Almere19LogoPrize Money

Challenge Almere has a total prize purse of 38.000 EUR, paying 10 deep.

Male Race Participants

Name Nation
Carlos Aznar Gallego ESP
Marijn De Jonge NED
Erik Doornbos NED
Pete Dyson GBR
Chris Fischer DEN
Kristian Hogenhaug DEN
Kieran Lindars GBR
Sergio Marques POR
Caleb Noble AUS
Stefan Overmars NED
Martijn Paalman NED
Jens Petersen-Bach DEN
Tomas Renc CZE
Diederik Scheltinga NED
Evert Scheltinga NED
Thomas Steger AUT
Erik-Simon Strijk NED
Sven Strijk NED
Marc Unger GER
Aliksandr Vasilevich BLR
Jacob Veenstra NED
Tjardo Visser NED
Andrej Vistica CRO
Dirk Wijnalda NED

Female Race Participants

Name Nation
Sarissa De Vries NED
Camille Deligny FRA
Ilona Eversdijk NED
Tessa Kortekaas NED
Simona Krivankova CZE
Janien Lubben NED
Vanessa Pereira POR
Lina-Kristin Schink GER
Karla Schipper NED
Sonja Skevin CRO
Astrid Stienen GER
Maja Urban CRO
Miriam Van Reijen NED
Kathrin Walther GER

Kona 2019 Resources

Here is a list of resources for Kona 2019 (race on Saturday, October 12th):

Some posts from other Triathlon media:

  • Tim Heming’s discussion for the British “220 Triathlon” magazine about his Top 10 Kona Predictions for the Women and Men
  • The schedule for “Breakfast with Bob” (starting Monday) can be found here. If you have a chance to watch it live, by all means do so – most of the Pros are really friendly and still relaxed. If you can’t be in Kona, watch the interviews live or taped on YouTube.
  • Talbot Cox has a series of videos in his “Kona 2019” series on YouTube.
  • The Ironwomen podcast is doing a lot of interviews with female Pros on their Facebook page.
  • Laura Siddall has written for Red Bull about the male and female Pro fields.  Always interesting to get the perspective of someone racing in the Pro race herself!
  • Witsup has produced a hilarious spoof of the Kona coverage: “The 2019 Witsuo Kona Kall

Evaluating the New Kona Pro Qualifying System

Now that Kona Pro Qualifying has come to a close for 2019, it’s time to evaluate how the new qualifying system has worked for its first full season. This post compares the old to the new system and looks at some of the implications, giving data and evaluations on a couple of different aspects. I close with a few ideas on how to improve the current system.

Comparing the Outcomes

In order to compare the old points-based “Kona Pro Ranking” to the new slot-based system, I have applied the KPR system to the results of the 2019 racing season and looked at the resulting Kona fields. This section looks at the major differences that these two systems would have produced.

Simulating the 2019 KPR

There are a couple of details that make the comparison a bit tricky. Converting the new system to the old system is relatively straight-forward for Ironman races – the three categories of the KPR (Kona as P-8000, Regionals as P-4000, and regular IMs as P-2000) can be easily identified in the 2019 season. However, the distinction in the new system between races with just the regular two slots and the races with extra unassigned slots gets lost, but of course might have played a role in athletes deciding which race to tackle. Another small problem: For 70.3s, there have been four categories in the old KPR (Worlds as P-3000, Regionals as P-1500, and regular 70.3s as P-750 or P-500). There is no distinction between P-750 and P-500 in the new system, so I have put all of them in the P-500 category. One might do something trickier to determine the equivalents of P-750s (maybe based on which race was a P-750 in the season before), but that is unlikely to make a big difference in the overall rankings.

The following tables show the top-ranked athletes based on this simulation.

Top of the Female KPR

Rank Name Nation Points Races
AQ Ryf, Daniela SUI 17000 3+1 (2000/3000)
AQ Charles-Barclay, Lucy GBR 14400 2+2 (4000/500)
AQ Crowley, Sarah AUS 13400 3+1 (3400/1275)
1 Haug, Anne GER 11310 2+2 (2000/400)
2 True, Sarah USA 8735 2+2 (1600/135)
AQ Carfrae, Mirinda AUS 7920 2+2 (1670/500)
3 Piampiano, Sarah USA 7715 3+1 (2000/625)
4 Sali, Kaisa FIN 7460 2+1
5 Naeth, Angela CAN 6705 3+1 (960/320)
AQ Moench, Skye USA 6380 2+2 (960/500)

Daniela’s total of 17.000 is quite unbelievable and will be very hard to beat. Her total is based on her win in Kona (8.000 points), a win at the North American Regionals in Texas (4.000 points), her win at the 70.3 Champs (3.000 points) and a win at IM Austria (a “paltry” 2.000 points). Wow!

Top of the Male KPR

Rank Name Nation Points Races
AQ Currie, Braden NZL 11965 3+1 (1280/1435)
AQ Weiss, Michael AUT 11280 3+1 (2890/1290)
AQ Lange, Patrick GER 10415 2+2 (515/400)
1 Aernouts, Bart BEL 9830 2+2 (855/500)
2 Russell, Matthew USA 8715 3+1 (1670/320)
3 O’Donnell, Timothy USA 8015 2+2 (1280/400)
4 Hanson, Matt USA 7890 3+1 (2000/400)
AQ Frodeno, Jan GER 7500 1+2 (4000/500)
5 McNamee, David GBR 7395 2+1
6 Van Berkel, Tim AUS 7315 2+2 (2240/400)

Athletes Qualifying Only Under the Slot System

Here’s a table that shows the women who snagged a 2019 slot but would have been outside the Top 35 ranks in the KPR and therefore wouldn’t have qualified for Kona:

Rank Name Nation Points Races
39 Philipp, Laura GER 3000 1+2 (2000/500)
40 Derron, Nina SUI 2940 2+2 (540/400)
42 Thoes, Svenja GER 2800 1+2 (2000/400)
43 Kessler, Meredith USA 2760 3+1 (540/400)
50 Spieldenner, Jennifer USA 2560 1+2 (2000/240)
65 Riveros, Barbara CHI 2100 1+1
67 Huse, Sue CAN 2045 1+1
66 Bleymehl, Daniela GER 2000 1+0
71 Bilham, Emma SUI 2000 1+0
90 Mack, Danielle USA 1355 1+1
113 Kunz, Martina SUI 990 1+2 (720/135)

As usual, the “rank” column only looks at athletes who are “competing” for points-slots, i.e. without automatic qualifiers or those who didn’t race any full-distance Ironman races. Here’s the corresponding table for men outside the Top 50:

Rank Name Nation Points Races
55 Buckingham, Kyle ZAF 2250 2+1
56 Peterson, Kennett USA 2240 1+2 (1600/320)
57 Kraemer, Lukas GER 2225 1+1
59 Tollakson, TJ USA 2180 1+2 (1280/400)
60 Clarke, Will GBR 2155 2+1
61 Viennot, Cyril FRA 2155 2+2 (235/240)
62 Duelsen, Marc GER 2065 2+1
65 Fontana, Daniel ITA 2000 1+0
65 Hogenhaug, Kristian DEN 2000 1+0
84 Schumacher, Stefan GER 1670 1+0
89 Alonso McKernan, Clemente ESP 1600 1+0
115 Silvestrin, Frank BRA 1280 1+0

As expected, athletes who wouldn’t have qualified in a points system are those with “one big result” (winning an IM, e.g. Sue Huse who won IM Taiwan, Jen Spieldenner who won Louisville, or Kristian Hogenhaug who won IM Hamburg) or those who received a slot that rolled down quite far (e.g Martina Kunz, 5th in Hamburg, or Stefan Schuhmacher, 6th in Mar del Plata). This does not imply that these athletes don’t deserve to be in Kona – after all the system is what it is, and they probably would have raced more under a different qualifying system.

Athletes Qualifying Only Under the KPR System

Of course, there are also athletes who won’t be able to race in Kona 2019 but would have had the chance if the KPR system had still been in place. The following tables do not include athletes who didn’t qualify after declining their slots (such as Teresa Adam or Heather Wurtele):

Rank Name Nation Points Races
5 Naeth, Angela CAN 6705 3+1 (960/320)
14 Oliveira, Pamella BRA 5285 1+2 (1600/1500)
27 Duke, Dimity-Lee AUS 3975 2+2 (1280/400)
28 Watkinson, Amelia NZL 3875 1+2 (2455/500)
30 Hansen, Jennie USA 3685 3+1 (720/30)
31 Lundstroem, Asa SWE 3615 3+1 (565/240)

The same table for the male Pros:

Rank Name Nation Points Races
17 Burton, Matt AUS 5015 3+1 (960/320)
25 Wild, Ruedi SUI 3890 2+2 (1600/170)
28 Chevrot, Denis FRA 3605 2+2 (720/500)
29 Long, Sam USA 3620 3+1 (340/400)
32 Harvey, Jarrod AUS 3270 2+0
36 Rodriguez Iglesias, Gustavo ESP 2915 3+1 (540/135)
37 Blanchart Tinto, Miquel ESP 2780 3+0 (540/0)
38 Wojt, Lukasz GER 2740 2+2 (960/320)
39 Kappler, Blake AUS 2695 2+2 (405/100)
46 Dirksmeier, Patrick GER 2455 2+1
47 Kramer, Christian GER 2425 3+1 (230/55)
49 Van Looy, Diego BEL 2400 3+0 (720/0)
50 Huerzeler, Samuel SUI 2390 3+0 (385/0)

These athletes fall into two different categories:

  • Lots of Kona or 70.3 Worlds points from late 2018
    Pamella Oliveira was fourth at 70.3 Worlds in Port Elizabeth, then followed that up with three 70.3 wins (including the South American Regional Championships in Buenos Aires) and a second place at IM Brasil – unfortunately behind Sarah Piampiano who took the single female slot.
  • Lots of good (but no great) results in 2019
    The “poster child” for this category is Matt Burton: A 3rd at Western Australia, a 4th at IM New Zealand and a 4th at IM Cairns were just outside the Kona slots – either by one or two spots. A last-minute effort at IM Sweden ended in a frustrating DNF and no Kona slot.

Athletes Impacted by the New System

Some athletes love to race a lot, regardless of “strategic choices” to qualify. For example, Matt Russell has done four long-distance races between April and July, and even though he secured a slot at IM Frankfurt, he followed that up with Challenge Roth (one week after Frankfurt) and a win at IM Lake Placid (just four weeks after Frankfurt).

But there were also athletes who had to adapt their race selection or race strategies in order to qualify. A few examples:

  • Sarah True probably raced a bit harder in Cairns and Frankfurt knowing she needed a first or second to qualify, compared to a “solid finish” which would have secured her slot in a points system.
  • Angela Naeth would have been safe for a Kona slot after her sixth place in Kona and a second place in Cozumel in November under the old KPR system. Instead, she was chasing a slot even while struggling with injuries, resulting in four unsuccessful attempts over the summer (three DNFs in Boulder, Canada and Tallinn, and a fourth place at IM Copenhagen).
  • Braden Currie missed his Kona slot by one spot at IM New Zealand and thus was forced to also race IM Cairns. As he was racing Challenge Roth, he probably would have preferred to skip Cairns. (He DNF’d in Roth.)

Data on 2019 Racing

Gender distribution of Pro Slots

When the new system was announced, the “unassigned slots” were one of the main aspects discussed and how that would impact the number of male and female Pros in Kona. Here’s a look at the resulting numbers:

Season Total Male Female Female Quota
2016 99 57 42 42,4%
2017 92 54 38 41,3%
2018 92 53 39 42,4%
2019 101 56 44 43,6%

(The total for 2019 is currently higher as it shows the number of qualified athletes. That number will likely be a bit smaller leading up to the race with athletes withdrawing, typically there are at least five athletes who don’t race even though having accepted a slot.)

These numbers show that there hasn’t been a major change in females Pros racing in Kona.

Why are the hopes of more even slots still unfulfilled? Ironman will probably point to the reduced number of females starts: In 2018 34,7% of the Pro starters were females, that number has been reduced to 31,4% in 2019. Also, it seems that the Regional Championships were quite attractive for the females in the past: In 2018 38,3% of the starting Pros at the Regionals were female. (My guess is that because more points were available, it was a chance for female Pros to qualify with just one result.) The share of females in the 2019 Regionals was 32,0%, almost exactly the overall average. Therefore, most of the unassigned slots went to the male Pros (16 out 20), but the share of unassigned slots that went to the men (80%) is significantly higher than their share of Pro athletes (68,6%).

DNF Rate

When the new system was announced, there was some speculation about athletes dropping out who were looking for a slot but found themselves too far back. Here’s just one example of many:

SebiTweet

However, looking at the DNF rates for the last few seasons, the DNF rate has hardly moved at all:

Season Male Pros Female Pros
2017 26,1% 16,1%
2018 24,8% 16,9%
2019 26,3% 16,5%

It is safe to say that the impact of the qualifying system on the DNF quota has been negligible.

Quantity of Racing

The next table lists the average number of races that the Kona participants did in the season before Kona. In order to make the periods comparable, I’ve used the ten months after Kona to the end of August qualifying  (e.g. for the 2018 season it’s races between October 15th, 2017 to August 19th, 2018).

Season IMs 70.3s Challenge
2017 2,02 2,47 0,51
2018 2,16 2,37 0,64
2019 1,72 2,06 0,69

There has been a noticeable decline in the number of races a Kona athlete has done under the new system. (While it’s quite likely that the new system was the major contributor to this decline, it’s probably best to also check next season’s numbers before making a final call.) This is most pronounced for Ironman races – which seems quite logical since when an athlete has qualified after one race, there is no need for additional racing. It also seems that this “slack” did not go to 70.3 racing which has also declined. Racing in events by the Challenge Family has slightly picked up but is still quite minor compared to Ironman-branded races for those athletes who go to Kona.

Suggested Modifications for the Qualifying System

As far as I can see, there are a couple of criticisms leveled against the new system:

  1. Athletes who are “just outside” of a slot get nothing.
    There are two obvious examples for this: Matt Burton who has narrowly missed a Kona slot three times, and Sarah True who started at Zero even after a fourth place in Kona.
  2. The unassigned slots still heavily favor the men, and the last-minute assignment based on starters leads to surprises on race day.
  3. At some races, the slots rolled down quite far.

In order to address these points, here are a few elements for combining the old and the new system:

  • “Win and you’re in” and Automatic Qualifiers
    I think these parts of the system have been working well and shouldn’t be changed. I would also keep the two minimum slots for the Regional Championships. At 25 Pro IMs per season – including 5 Regionals – this results in 30 slots each for the men and women plus the AQs for previous Kona winners, the current Kona podium and 70.3 Champions.
  • Remaining Slots by a Points System
    Instead of the current “floating slots” that get awarded at different races, the remaining slots get decided by a points system similar to the old KPR. The number of slots could be adjusted based on how many total Pros there should be in Kona, with the current field size there would be about 24 additional slots.
  • Assign Points Slots at the Start of the Season
    Instead of deciding on a per-race basis, the points slots get allocated at the start of the season based on the number of starters in the previous season. Based on 24 points slots and the 2018 female quota of 34,7%, it would result in 8 female and 14 male “base” points slots.
  • No Rolldown of “winner’s slots” – these get added to the points slots
    If someone declines their slot or the winner doesn’t need a slot (e.g. when Daniela won IM Austria or when Jan and Sebi finished 1-2 in Frankfurt), the slot won’t roll down to the next finisher but instead get added to the points slots of their gender.
  • Simplified points system
    Every race beyond the auto qualifiers is a P-2000 (2nd in a normal IM = 3rd in a Regional = 2000 points etc.). One could also include 70.3 champs in this points system (as the winner also gets an AQ slot, 2nd place = 2000 points), but I’d leave out other 70.3s. As before, there should be a maximum of three Ironman races that can be included in the total.

Even though this system would require a bit more admin work than the current system, I think it addresses all of the weaknesses of the current system mentioned above. To me, it seems a worthwhile change – what are your thoughts?

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