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July 2015

New Top 10 Ratings

I’ve updated my page on the Top 10 Ratings in long distance triathlon.

TOP Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Rated Male Athletes

After his stellar are at IM Germany, Jan Frodeno has taken over the top spot in front of Sebastian Kienle. With Nils Frommhold there are now three Germans at the front of my ratings:

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Jan Frodeno GER 08:08:18 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 3
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:08:50 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 10
3 Nils Frommhold GER 08:15:11 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 6
4 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:15:48 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 16
5 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 08:19:10 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 19
6 Andreas Raelert GER 08:20:03 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 14
7 Timo Bracht GER 08:22:35 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 24
8 Craig Alexander AUS 08:23:13 IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11 12
9 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:23:47 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 22
10 Bas Diederen NED 08:24:09 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 8

TOP 10 Rated Female Athletes

Mirinda Carfrae continues to lead the female ratings, but Daniela Ryf is slowly getting closer.

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 08:57:08 IM Melbourne on 2015-03-22 12
2 Daniela Ryf SUI 09:03:14 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 4
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:07:58 IM Texas on 2015-05-16 16
4 Caroline Steffen SUI 09:11:03 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 20
5 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:13:06 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 17
6 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:14:13 IM South Africa on 2015-03-29 7
7 Julia Gajer GER 09:15:15 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 9
8 Eva Wutti AUT 09:16:23 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 5
9 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:17:15 IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19 14
10 Liz Blatchford AUS 09:17:16 IM Cairns on 2015-06-14 7

TOP Swim-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Male Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Dylan McNeice NZL 00:45:11 IM Cairns on 2015-06-14 11
2 Andy Potts USA 00:46:00 IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28 12
3 Jan Frodeno GER 00:46:22 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 3
4 Manuel Kueng SUI 00:46:36 IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19 3
5 Marko Albert EST 00:46:49 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 12
6 Filip Ospaly CZE 00:47:02 IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11 3
7 Paul Matthews AUS 00:47:04 IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28 6
8 Timothy O’Donnell USA 00:47:10 IM Brasil on 2015-05-31 10
9 Denis Chevrot FRA 00:47:13 IM UK on 2015-07-19 5
10 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:47:18 IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30 11

TOP 10 Swim-Rated Female Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Celine Schaerer SUI 00:48:23 IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30 3
2 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:48:35 IM South Africa on 2015-03-29 7
3 Haley Chura USA 00:49:03 IM Brasil on 2015-05-31 8
4 Amanda Stevens USA 00:49:49 IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28 13
5 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:07 IM New Zealand on 2015-03-07 19
6 Leanda Cave GBR 00:50:40 IM Texas on 2015-05-16 16
7 Lucie Reed CZE 00:50:45 IM Brasil on 2015-05-31 18
8 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:50:54 IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19 14
9 Liz Blatchford AUS 00:50:55 IM Cairns on 2015-06-14 7
10 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:51:00 IM South Africa on 2015-03-29 4

TOP Bike-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Male Athletes

With his fast bike ride at Challenge Roth, Andrew Starykowicz has reclaimed his top spot in the bike ratings:

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 04:23:43 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 5
2 Sebastian Kienle GER 04:26:08 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 10
3 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 04:28:16 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 19
4 Nils Frommhold GER 04:28:39 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 6
5 Michael Weiss AUT 04:29:29 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 11
6 Jan Frodeno GER 04:31:34 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 3
7 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 04:31:54 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 16
8 Maik Twelsiek GER 04:32:39 IM Coeur d’Alene on 2015-06-28 26
9 Andi Boecherer GER 04:33:13 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 11
10 Eneko Llanos ESP 04:34:34 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 22

TOP 10 Bike-Rated Female Athletes

Angela Naeth is slowly inching towards a 5 hour rating, but she is clearly second after Daniela Ryf continues to improve her bike rating:

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 04:56:48 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 4
2 Angela Naeth CAN 05:00:30 IM Texas on 2015-05-16 4
3 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 05:01:06 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 17
4 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 05:01:20 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 4
5 Caroline Steffen SUI 05:01:23 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 20
6 Eva Wutti AUT 05:01:30 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 5
7 Anja Beranek GER 05:03:05 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 5
8 Natascha Badmann SUI 05:03:42 IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11 12
9 Diana Riesler GER 05:03:52 IM Lanzarote on 2015-05-23 14
10 Jodie Swallow GBR 05:04:21 IM South Africa on 2015-03-29 7

TOP Run-Rated Athletes

TOP 10 Run-Rated Male Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Jan Frodeno GER 02:47:19 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 3
2 Mads Vittrup DEN 02:47:55 IM Copenhagen on 2014-08-24 5
3 Matt Hanson USA 02:48:45 IM Texas on 2015-05-16 6
4 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 02:49:30 IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19 3
5 Bart Aernouts BEL 02:49:59 IM South Africa on 2015-03-29 7
6 Ivan Rana ESP 02:50:30 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 8
7 Jeff Symonds CAN 02:51:06 IM Canada on 2015-07-26 5
8 Gerrit Schellens BEL 02:51:24 Challenge Roth on 2015-07-12 10
9 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 02:52:08 IM Cozumel on 2014-11-30 11
10 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 02:52:25 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 10

TOP 10 Run-Rated Female Athletes

Rank Name Nation Rating Last Race # Races
1 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 02:58:47 IM Melbourne on 2015-03-22 12
2 Kelly Williamson USA 03:04:20 IM Texas on 2015-05-16 11
3 Kristin Moeller GER 03:04:42 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 15
4 Caitlin Snow USA 03:06:06 IM Canada on 2015-07-26 20
5 Julia Gajer GER 03:07:05 IM Germany on 2015-07-05 9
6 Beth Gerdes USA 03:07:16 IM Switzerland on 2015-07-19 10
7 Linsey Corbin USA 03:07:40 IM Hawaii on 2014-10-11 18
8 Eva Wutti AUT 03:08:17 IM Austria on 2015-06-28 5
9 Lucy Gossage GBR 03:08:17 IM UK on 2015-07-19 9
10 Elizabeth Lyles USA 03:08:39 IM Canada on 2015-07-26 9

Ironman Netherlands 2015 (Aug 2nd) – Predictions

IMNetherlands

Update (July 29th): Corinne Abraham announced she won’t be racing in Maastricht. (She already slipped into the first round of qualifiers.)

This is the first race on this course.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Netherlands is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Overall
1 1 Bas Diederen NED 08:24:09 00:47:37 04:37:33 02:55:23 10
2 2 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:33:18 00:50:48 04:40:56 02:57:29 31
3 32 Per Bittner GER 08:41:33 00:49:40 04:44:43 03:04:24 54
4 24 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:44:22 00:48:12 04:41:01 03:10:27 66
5 13 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:59:26 00:48:29 04:55:55 03:12:00 124
6 25 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:02:37 01:00:15 04:50:44 03:06:14 138
7 23 Alberto Casadei ITA 09:03:18 00:48:02 04:58:28 03:04:33 142
8 17 Mark Oude Bennink NED 09:09:16 00:48:37 04:53:39 03:17:21 169
9 28 Bart Candel NED 09:13:55 00:56:01 04:57:44 03:00:05 (190)
10 26 Matic Modic SLO 09:14:08 00:55:15 04:56:51 03:10:33 192
11 8 Hannes Cool BEL 09:18:50 00:51:15 04:57:36 03:21:04 211
12 5 Martijn Dekker NED 09:20:20 00:47:40 04:44:54 03:25:50 (218)
13 10 Rinus Holvoet BEL 09:25:00 00:53:44 05:00:26 03:19:29 243
14 22 Remy Vasseur NED 09:27:32 00:54:14 05:05:49 03:16:51 (248)
15 27 Joerie Vansteelant BEL 09:28:00 00:58:55 04:45:05 03:24:51 (249)
16 21 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:31:24 00:56:47 05:01:11 03:21:52 263
17 29 Stefan Eichheimer GER 09:39:04 00:57:36 04:56:28 03:18:39 (299)
18 33 Urs Mueller SWI 09:40:24 00:56:45 05:03:55 03:20:35 (304)
19 30 Lukas Polan CZE 10:07:42 01:02:37 05:13:35 03:39:17 401
20 4 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 10:15:34 01:01:08 05:23:41 03:39:46 424
21 34 Josef Svoboda CZE 11:54:44 01:11:32 06:03:13 04:22:23 492
22 16 Mathias Nagel GER 15:28:03 01:54:35 06:52:42 06:08:43 (495)
3 Wouter Duinisveld NED unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
6 Tim Brydenbach BEL unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
7 Emanuele Ciotti ITA unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Thomas Kaiser GER unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Roman Krivosheev RUS unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Frederic Schaffner FRA unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Andreas Thissen GER unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Xavier Torrades ESP unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
31 Cedric Largajolli FRA unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Overall
1 51 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:13:06 00:58:09 05:01:06 03:10:34 5
2 59 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:23:37 00:59:58 05:11:07 03:09:44 16
3 55 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:55:34 unrated unrated unrated 80
4 54 Irene Kinnegim NED 10:07:41 01:07:40 05:20:46 03:31:44 (112)
5 57 Maria Lemeseva RUS 10:15:03 01:08:47 05:32:48 03:23:50 123
6 58 Anne Jensen DNK 10:28:48 01:09:45 05:24:33 03:45:14 159
7 56 Carla Van Rooijen NED 10:31:35 01:14:39 05:28:30 03:36:48 (162)
53 Sarissa De Vries NED unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Bas and Cyril lead the odds for the men, they are already qualified for Kona and may not race at their full potential. Per Bittner (3.030 points), Fraser Cartmell (3.545) and Alberto Casadei (1.791) look for more KPR points to secure an August slot.

  • Bas Diederen: 49% (1-1)
  • Cyril Viennot: 20% (4-1)
  • Per Bittner: 14% (6-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 11% (8-1)
  • Alberto Casadei: 4% (23-1)

Female Race Participants

Yvonne Van Vlerken is the clear favorite on the women’s side. If there is a threat to her it’s going to come from Corinne Abraham who has had a few DNSs since her 5th place in Texas. Yvonne and Corinne are both already qualified for Kona, there is no one else in the field that has a significant number of points.

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 60% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 32% (2-1)
  • Carolin Lehrieder: 3% (28-1)
  • Irene Kinnegim: 3% (32-1)

Ironman Whistler 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

By all accounts, the weather in Whistler was miserable this year: Rain and low temperatures created tough conditions, and almost all athletes were cold, some even to the point of hypothermia:

LukeBellTweet

Some of the athletes that were already safe for Kona (Jeff Symonds, Liz Lyles) pulled the plug early in the race, some looking for points had to drop out on the bike while others fought all day for their finish.

After a slow bike leg (adjustment -14:46) no one was able to run fast (only two sub-3h runs for the men and 3:16 was the fastest female marathon), leading to an overall adjustment -15:45. This was even slower than the “hot race” in Coeur d’Alene (adjustment of -8:24) where the heat impacted the athletes mainly on the run.

Male Race Results

After catching up to the slightly faster swimmers, Kyle Buckingham was leading the race for most of the day. But Viktor Zyemtsev had the best run of the day, catching Kyle around the 30k mark and eventually pulling away, winning by less than a minute. Justin Daerr used the second best run of the day to finish in third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 00:53:03 04:58:32 02:54:28 08:49:46 -01:09 US$ 20000
2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 00:48:40 04:56:18 03:01:24 08:50:30 02:16 US$ 10000
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:53:02 04:58:35 02:59:13 08:54:45 -04:15 US$ 6500
4 Derek Garcia USA 00:53:30 04:57:54 03:08:05 09:02:55 -13:55 US$ 4000
5 Chris McDonald AUS 00:53:04 04:57:37 03:14:20 09:08:45 08:08 US$ 3000
6 Nathan Killam CAN 00:54:10 05:14:14 03:02:06 09:14:34 -20:37 US$ 2000
7 Matthew Russell USA 00:59:14 05:10:54 03:06:47 09:22:39 16:05 US$ 1500
8 Swen Sundberg GER 00:53:07 05:07:04 03:20:49 09:25:10 20:01 US$ 1250
9 Travis Hawkins USA 01:02:05 05:26:03 03:18:48 09:52:59 n/a US$ 1000
10 Gray Skinner USA 01:01:44 05:10:47 03:36:05 09:53:17 n/a US$ 750
11 Elmar Heger GER 00:56:54 05:16:02 03:40:02 09:59:10 -41:25  
12 Matthew Sheeks USA 01:03:15 05:36:28 10:10:41 10:10:41 36:59  
  Barrett Brandon USA 00:48:22     DNF  
  Luke Bell AUS 00:48:27     DNF  
  Paul Ambrose GBR 00:51:48     DNF  
  Jeff Symonds CAN 00:51:53     DNF  
  Chad Holderbaum USA 00:53:10     DNF  
  Dougal Allan NZL 00:59:12     DNF  
  Jason Watson USA 01:01:05     DNF  

Both Viktor and Kyle scored enough KPR points to move into the Top 40 July spots. Barrett Brandon, Luke Bell and Paul Ambrose DNF’d on the bike and couldn’t improve their score. Luke ends up in #41 in the rankings and is either the first not to qualify or the first one receiving a roll-down slot.

Female Race Results

Melanie McQuaid picked tough conditions for her IM debut race. She stormed to the front early in the bike, and built a five-minute lead into T2 that was stable for most of the run. But after 30k Danielle Mack was quickly coming closer, took the lead around 40k and won by two minutes. Melanie finished second, while Jen Annett had the best run of the day to put herself into third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Danielle Mack USA 01:01:49 05:23:53 03:16:09 09:46:19 -15:25 US$ 20000
2 Melanie McQuaid CAN 00:57:47 05:22:43 03:23:44 09:48:23 n/a US$ 10000
3 Jen Annett CAN 01:02:01 05:32:14 03:16:03 09:55:06 -43:43 US$ 6500
4 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:58:17 05:33:05 03:23:54 09:59:34 -03:56 US$ 4000
5 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:01:09 05:25:02 03:30:11 10:00:18 -04:06 US$ 3000
6 Jessie Donavan USA 01:05:09 05:25:55 03:29:55 10:04:40 08:06 US$ 2000
7 Cheryl Orlovsky CAN 01:06:42 05:38:35 03:16:57 10:07:07 n/a US$ 1500
8 Kelly Fillnow USA 01:05:47 05:44:07 03:16:08 10:11:17 -17:06 US$ 1250
9 Laurel Wassner USA 00:54:12 05:49:16 03:23:36 10:12:52 16:46 US$ 1000
10 Caitlin Snow USA 00:57:59 05:54:24 03:20:20 10:17:42 30:39 US$ 750
11 Tracy Douglas AUS 01:06:51 05:45:21 03:34:29 10:32:01 09:28  
  Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:54:09     DNF  
  Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:57:55     DNF  
  Richele Frank CAN 01:11:58     DNF  

Both Laurel Wassner and Cait Snow had a chance for a July slot. They struggled in the cold conditions, but still finished – even if their 9th and 10th place finishes were short of the podium finished they would have needed.

Unofficial KPR at end of July cutoff

Here is my calculation of the KPR at the end of July, deciding 40 male and 28 female slots (in addition to the Automatic Qualifiers). My results are unofficial, the official results have been posted on the Ironman website at http://eu.ironman.com/triathlon/triathlon-rankings/points-system.aspx (but as far as I can tell show the same data). I do not count AQs in my rankings, therefore it is a bit easier to determine the Top 40 male and Top 28 females.
I will update this post with new information regarding declined slots and rolldown. For now, the athletes with a rank in brackets (e.g. “(42)”) are outside of the July slots.

Update July 28th: Yvonne Van Vlerken declines (with a post on her German language Facebook page), Dimity-Lee Duke is now in. Here’s a quick translation of Yvonne’s statement:

The race in Hawaii deserves 100% focus and absolute priority if you want to finish at the front. .. I only want to start when I have a chance for a Top 5. That I belong there I have shown with my 2nd place  at IM Melbourne in a world class field and confirmed that with my win at Challenge Roth. If I can add a win at Ironman Maastricht next weekend, I’ll be very happy and have fulfilled my main goals for this year.
Things are going to be different for 2016: For the first time I will completely focus on Kona.

Update 2 July 28th: Patrik Nilsson also declines to focus on racing well at IM Sweden, his slot rolls down to Luke Bell.

Update 3 August 15th: Lisa Hütthaler announced on her blog that she is injured and won’t be able to start 70.3 World Champs or in Kona. Her slot has rolled down to Dede Griesbauer.

Male KPR Ranking

All July slots have been accepted, the only exception is Patrik Nilsson who declined for Luke Bell.

Rank  Name Validated Points Races
AQ Frodeno, Jan V 14680 2+3 (4000/750)
AQ Kienle, Sebastian V 12415 2+2
AQ Van Lierde, Frederik V 10455 3+1 (2090/0)
1 Hoffman, Ben V 9970 2+3 (1070/415)
2 Potts, Andy V 9475 2+3 (2000/500)
3 Frommhold, Nils V 9185 2+2
4 Aernouts, Bart V 8310 2+2
5 Sanders, Lionel V 8140 2+3 (2000/750)
6 Van Berkel, Tim V 8060 2+3 (3400/45)
7 Schildknecht, Ronnie V 7550 3+2 (2000/180)
8 Don, Tim V 7430 1+3 (2000/1500)
9 McMahon, Brent V 7270 2+3 (2000/500)
10 Trautman, Matt V 7195 3+2 (1670/320)
11 Viennot, Cyril V 6995 2+2
AQ Hanson, Matt V 6990 3+2 (720/50)
AQ Vanhoenacker, Marino V 6735 3+1 (235/0)
12 Guillaume, Romain V 6200 3+2 (960/320)
13 Brown, Cameron V 6145 3+2 (960/500)
14 O’Donnell, Timothy V 6065 3+2 (235/435)
15 Rana, Ivan V 5840 3+1 (880/0)
16 Skipper, Joe V 5295 3+1 (540/0)
17 Diederen, Bas V 5245 3+1 (720/0)
18 Weiss, Michael V 5025 3+2 (1100/85)
19 Llanos, Eneko V 4980 3+1 (1070/0)
20 Butterfield, Tyler V 4965 2+3 (1335/110)
21 Alonso McKernan, Clemente V 4880 3+0 (1280/0)
22 Millward, Callum V 4825 2+3 (1600/180)
— Reed, Tim NV 4710 1+3 (340/1275)
23 Mcnamee, David V 4695 2+3 (1335/280)
AQ Symonds, Jeff V 4675 1+2
24 Boecherer, Andi V 4530 1+3 (2890/500)
25 McKenzie, Luke V 4450 2+3 (1375/240)
26 Kahlefeldt, Brad V 4400 1+3 (2890/435)
27 Amorelli, Igor V 4340 2+3 (340/125)
28 McNeice, Dylan V 4305 3+1 (960/0)
DECL Nilsson, Patrik V 4240 2+1
— Alexander, Craig NV 4210 1+3 (1900/640)
29 Gomes, Pedro V 4090 3+0 (720/0)
30 Kramer, Christian V 4055 2+0
31 Zyemtsev, Viktor V 3980 2+3 (540/400)
32 Croneborg, Fredrik V 3975 2+3 (1600/135)
33 Buckingham, Kyle V 3925 3+2 (515/195)
34 Van Berkel, Jan V 3895 2+3 (1335/320)
35 Twelsiek, Maik V 3875 3+2 (85/80)
36 Del Corral, Victor V 3860 3+2 (855/45)
37 Bozzone, Terenzo V 3850 1+3 (1600/320)
— Gomez, Javier NV 3750 0+2
38 Bretscher, Daniel V 3745 2+3 (1600/20)
39 Blanchart Tinto, Miquel V 3700 3+1 (960/0)
40 Bell, Luke V 3665 2+3 (160/345)
(41) Chrabot, Matt V 3630 1+3 (1600/640)
(42) Cartmell, Fraser V 3545 3+2 (50/15)
(43) Manocchio, Guilherme V 3540 2+2
(44) Chevrot, Denis V 3540 2+2

As a previous champion and with his validation race at IM Australia, Pete Jacobs is another Automatic Qualifier (even if he is well outside the Top40).

Female KPR Ranking

As for the male side, there was only one slot rolling down: Yvonne Van Vlerken declined, and Dimity-Lee Duke now received a July slot.

Rank  Name Validated Points Races
AQ Ryf, Daniela V 15450 2+3 (4000/500)
AQ Swallow, Jodie V 14370 2+3 (4000/750)
1 Steffen, Caroline V 13055 3+2 (2890/750)
2 Joyce, Rachel V 11100 2+3 (2890/320)
AQ Carfrae, Mirinda V 10275 2+2
3 Gajer, Julia V 9905 2+3 (3400/500)
4 Kessler, Meredith V 8960 2+3 (2000/1275)
5 Crawford, Gina V 8940 3+2 (1600/640)
AQ Monticeli, Ariane V 7810 3+2 (960/500)
6 Lyles, Elizabeth V 7790 2+1
7 Blatchford, Liz V 7770 3+2 (1280/640)
AQ Naeth, Angela V 7580 2+3 (2000/400)
8 Ellis, Mary Beth V 7515 2+2
9 Wurtele, Heather V 7390 2+3 (1335/750)
10 Gossage, Lucy V 7190 2+3 (2000/400)
DECL Van Vlerken, Yvonne V 7160 3+2 (720/500)
11 Wutti, Eva V 6920 3+2 (1670/500)
12 Stevens, Amanda V 6290 3+2 (720/540)
13 Cheetham, Susie V 6290 2+3 (1280/640)
14 Riesler, Diana V 6270 3+1 (2000/0)
15 Pedersen, Camilla V 5875 2+3 (1600/320)
16 Gerdes, Beth V 5795 3+2 (960/345)
17 Martin, Britta V 5340 3+1 (1335/0)
18 Brennan-Morrey, Ruth V 5325 2+3 (1600/35)
AQ Cave, Leanda V 5290 2+2
19 Jackson, Heather V 5285 2+3 (1280/540)
20 Hufe, Mareen V 5255 3+2 (1280/500)
DECL Huetthaler, Lisa V 5195 2+2
21 Chura, Haley V 5150 2+3 (1670/240)
22 Luxford, Annabel V 5080 1+3 (1670/920)
23 Williamson, Kelly V 5055 3+2 (565/320)
24 Abraham, Corinne V 4725 2+0
25 Deckers, Tine V 4660 2+2
26 Lundstroem, Asa V 4625 3+1 (855/0)
27 Duke, Dimity-Lee V 4585 3+2 (960/345)
28 Griesbauer, Dede V 4500 2+2
(29) Piampiano, Sarah V 4410 2+3 (1280/320)
(30) Clifford, Ashley V 4130 3+1 (1070/0)
AQ Hauschildt, Melissa V 4000 1+0
(31) Wassner, Laurel V 3760 3+2 (230/135)
(32) Snow, Caitlin V 3735 3+1 (340/0)

Ironman Whistler (June 26th) – Predictions

IMWhistler

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Trevor Wurtele (CAN) 08:39:33 Uli Bromme (USA) 09:28:13
2014 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:16:10 Bree Wee (USA) 09:46:58

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Marino Vanhoenacker BEL 00:50:56 04:31:34 02:51:17 08:16:10
2 Jeff Symonds CAN 00:50:59 04:51:15 02:40:34 08:25:22
3 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:50:58 04:41:05 02:58:16 08:33:10

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bree Wee USA 00:56:15 05:29:07 03:17:41 09:46:58
2 Karen Thibodeau CAN 00:55:59 05:29:19 03:22:52 09:51:35
3 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:58:53 05:25:05 03:24:45 09:52:46

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:16:10 Marino Vanhoenacker 2014-07-27
Swim overall 00:48:45 Bryan Rhodes 2013-08-25
Bike overall 04:31:34 Marino Vanhoenacker 2014-07-27
Run overall 02:40:34 Jeff Symonds 2014-07-27
Total female 09:28:13 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Swim female 00:53:09 Anna Cleaver 2014-07-27
Bike female 05:13:51 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25
Run female 03:06:53 Uli Bromme 2013-08-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Canada (Whistler) is 01:53.

Race Adjustments for IM Canada

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 00:57 -00:01 -01:14 03:13 19 00:57 -00:01 -01:14 03:13
2014 02:49 -00:07 -04:03 -00:13 13 01:53 -00:04 -02:38 01:30

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Canada is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 2 Jeff Symonds CAN 08:27:08 08:34:12 00:50:34 04:47:15 02:44:19 34
2 9 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:34:10 08:32:46 00:48:57 04:40:45 02:59:28 28
3 4 Viktor Zyemtsev USA 08:34:28 08:35:28 00:50:06 04:47:09 02:52:13 37
4 22 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:34:49 08:38:14 00:49:57 04:33:09 03:06:43 42
5 11 Dougal Allan NZL 08:36:07 08:48:02 01:03:01 04:32:22 02:55:44 (83)
6 12 Justin Daerr USA 08:38:18 08:43:24 00:52:44 04:45:18 02:55:16 63
7 3 Paul Ambrose GBR 08:39:57 08:44:29 00:49:51 04:41:57 03:03:09 66
8 10 Barrett Brandon USA 08:43:21 08:50:34 00:48:03 04:53:59 02:56:20 (91)
9 6 Luke Bell AUS 08:43:39 08:48:38 00:47:27 04:45:34 03:05:38 85
10 5 Chris McDonald AUS 08:44:00 08:55:10 00:53:03 04:45:04 03:00:54 111
11 1 Matthew Russell USA 08:45:10 08:50:09 00:57:20 04:44:29 02:58:21 89
12 8 Swen Sundberg GER 08:49:46 08:48:40 00:52:24 04:47:53 03:04:28 86
13 14 Derek Garcia USA 09:00:44 09:06:25 00:52:48 04:49:43 03:13:13 154
14 17 Chad Holderbaum USA 09:02:25 09:19:15 00:54:12 04:53:43 03:09:30 215
15 19 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:12:02 09:29:54 01:02:31 05:05:35 02:58:57 260
16 18 Nathan Killam CAN 09:22:27 09:24:37 00:55:43 05:03:37 03:18:08 246
17 16 Elmar Heger GER 10:26:26 10:29:21 00:54:48 05:12:13 04:14:26 463
18 21 Jason Watson USA 11:05:04 11:09:00 00:59:19 05:37:25 04:23:19 487
13 Alistair Eeckman USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Travis Hawkins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Gray Skinner USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 33 (Mary Beth Ellis) USA 09:20:12 09:17:15 00:51:03 05:07:52 03:16:17 9
2 35 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:23:17 09:24:14 00:56:49 05:17:04 03:04:25 19
3 53 Caitlin Snow USA 09:26:50 09:29:02 00:55:46 05:23:15 03:02:49 24
4 38 (Beth Gerdes) USA 09:27:14 09:42:34 01:00:24 05:19:59 03:01:51 50
5 37 Danielle Mack USA 09:31:25 09:56:23 01:02:25 05:13:48 03:10:12 82
6 48 (Amanda Stevens) USA 09:32:11 09:33:26 00:50:44 05:17:09 03:19:18 33
7 51 Laurel Wassner USA 09:38:55 09:44:01 00:53:49 05:28:35 03:11:32 53
8 34 Jessie Donavan USA 09:40:52 09:38:56 01:07:04 05:11:22 03:17:27 46
9 43 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:46:51 09:51:52 00:59:06 05:21:20 03:21:25 69
10 32 Karen Thibodeau CAN 09:48:17 09:53:50 00:54:48 05:28:46 03:19:43 74
11 41 Jessica Fleming AUS 09:49:37 09:52:46 01:00:01 05:16:33 03:28:03 71
12 49 Christie Sym AUS 10:04:06 10:05:17 00:58:39 05:32:30 03:27:57 105
13 39 Tracy Douglas AUS 10:04:53 10:10:10 01:05:23 05:24:43 03:29:47 114
14 40 Kelly Fillnow USA 10:09:00 10:16:40 01:04:19 05:33:51 03:25:51 125
15 52 Molly Roohi USA 10:13:16 10:16:44 01:04:44 05:34:43 03:28:50 126
16 50 Jen Annett CAN 10:13:29 10:27:41 01:05:16 05:23:28 03:39:45 158
36 Melanie McQuaid CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
42 Richele Frank CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Cheryl Orlovsky CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

KPR Situation

Male Race Participants

Jeff Symonds is already safe for Kona, but there are a handful of athletes looking for more points to get a July Kona slot. A good number to shoot for is Terenzo Bozzone’s 3.850 points.

  • Luke Bell (3.665 – just needs a few more points, a 7th will probably be enough)
  • Paul Ambrose (3.095 – needs a podium finish)
  • Kyle Buckingham (2.665 – needs second place finish)
  • Matthew Russell (2.440), Barrett Brandon (2.320) and Viktor Zyemtsev (1.980) probably need a win

Female Race Participants

There are two athletes that can get a July slot with a good result:

  • Caitlin Snow (3.735 but already three IMs, needs a third place finish)
  • Laurel Wassner (3.580 – needs a third place finish)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Jeff Symonds is the favorite to win his home IM:

  • Jeff Symonds: 36% (2-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 13% (7-1)
  • Maik Twelsiek: 11% (8-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 8% (11-1)
  • Viktor Zyemtsev: 8% (11-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 8% (11-1)
  • Dougal Allan: 6% (15-1)
  • Chris McDonald: 4% (22-1)
  • Luke Bell: 3% (36-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 2% (53-1)

Female Race Participants

With Mary Beth Ellis, Beth Gerdes and Amanda Stevens a lot of the top contenders on paper are probably not starting in Whistler, I’ve put them (in brackets) in the list of participants and in the odds. Leaving them aside, Liz Lyles is the favorite on the female side:

  • (Mary Beth Ellis: 27% (3-1))
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 21% (4-1)
  • (Beth Gerdes: 18% (5-1))
  • Caitlin Snow: 14% (6-1)
  • Danielle Mack: 14% (6-1)
  • (Amanda Stevens: 2% (46-1))
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