May 2015

Ironman Brasil 2015 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

As usual, the conditions in Brasil were fast, especially on the bike. A bike adjustment of 17:40 leads to a total adjustment of 22:14, a little bit slower than last year, but still a bit quicker than the new course rating of 17:48.

Male Race Results

After the swim Marino had to make up some time to the front, but a monster 4:11 bike ride (the forth fastest ever) gave him a six minute lead into T2. During the run it looked as if Tim O’Donnell would be able to close the gap, but he never got closer than 36 seconds. In the end Marino won by 2 minutes over TO and another minute over Brent McMahon. Igor Amorelli also finished under 8 hours but had to settle for 4th place.

As the winner of the Regional Championships, Marino receives an automatic qualifier slot for Kona. He has stated before that he doesn’t want to return to Kona, but having qualified in May may be a reason to reconsider. (If he declines his slot, it will not roll down.) Tim and Igor should also be safe for a July slot, Brent and Matt Trautmann had a safe slot before the race. Ty Butterfield, Kyle Buckingham and Guilherme Manocchio will need more points for a slot.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	00:48:31	04:11:23	02:49:38	07:53:44	-11:00	US$ 30000
2	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	00:47:03	04:19:26	02:45:52	07:55:56	-21:48	US$ 15000
3	Brent McMahon	CAN	00:47:02	04:19:01	02:47:08	07:56:55	12:57	US$ 8000
4	Igor Amorelli	BRA	00:47:01	04:19:23	02:49:05	07:59:36	-19:29	US$ 6500
5	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	00:48:17	04:18:05	02:48:54	08:05:22	-08:29	US$ 5000
6	Matt Trautman	ZAF	00:52:21	04:25:19	02:44:31	08:06:29	01:10	US$ 3500
7	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	00:48:29	04:26:05	02:50:30	08:09:33	-04:00	US$ 2500
8	Mike Aigroz	SUI	00:48:17	04:26:17	02:54:42	08:13:22	-13:35	US$ 2000
9	Guilherme Manocchio	BRA	00:50:29	04:22:39	02:58:18	08:17:02	-12:45	US$ 1500
10	Frank Silvestrin	BRA	00:48:16	04:29:46	02:56:22	08:20:07	-24:10	US$ 1000
11	Anton Blokhin	UKR	00:48:26	04:34:22	03:03:00	08:30:29	08:23
12	Mario De Elias	ARG	00:52:12	04:44:01	02:52:09	08:32:59	-09:27
13	Nick Baldwin	SEY	00:50:24	04:37:56	03:01:58	08:36:08	05:09
14	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	00:50:06	04:56:16	02:51:06	08:41:10	04:00
15	Ivan Risti	ITA	00:48:20	04:36:32	03:19:50	08:49:43	11:26
16	Marcel Bischof	GER	00:58:10	04:39:57	03:10:48	08:54:22	02:41
17	Paul Matthews	AUS	00:46:58	04:23:53	03:40:22	08:55:04	50:55
18	Andres Darricau	Arg	00:53:34	04:49:39	03:12:38	09:02:50	-42:25
19	Edmilson Pereira	BRA	00:50:30	04:53:19	03:13:19	09:03:41	-09:45
20	Alejo Badino	ARG	00:48:28	04:56:42	03:15:38	09:07:02	n/a
21	Christian Carletto	ARG	00:55:28	05:00:24	03:14:48	09:20:46	-01:07
22	Luan Ortiz Silva	BRA	00:52:00	05:04:17	03:50:18	09:53:04	n/a
	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	00:55:32	04:33:00		DNF
	Ciro Violin	BRA	00:53:41	04:49:09		DNF
	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	00:48:27	05:00:50		DNF
	Santiago Ascenco	BRA	01:06:26	04:43:10		DNF
	Sergio Carrettoni	ARG	01:20:23	08:39:45		DNF
	Per Bittner	GER	00:48:19			DNF
	Felipe De Oliveira Manente	BRA	00:56:58			DNF
	Jason Britton	CAN	00:56:59			DNF
	Damon Barnett	USA	00:59:21			DNF
	Gaston Duran	ARG	01:01:36			DNF

Female Race Results

Haley Chura was leading the race in T1 and T2. In addition to her, Liz Lyles, Amanda Stevens, Tine Deckers and Asa Lundstoem were in the lead on the run, but eventually Ariane Monticelli won the race with the first sub-3 women’s marathon of the 2015 season. Liz finished 83 seconds back in second place, Amanda took third another 56 seconds back. Tine finished fourth, Laurel Wassner ran her way to fifth, Haley finished sixth and Asa finished 9th after struggling with stomach issues on the last part of the run.

Ariane receives an automatic qualifier slot, and Liz is now also safe (she had a lot of points after her 7th place in Kona and just needed to validate). Behind these two, Amanda Stevens and Haley Chura are on the bubble. Mareen Hufe and Asa Lundstroem were not able to score enough points to secure a slot but are close. Ashley Clifford is also close but had a frustrating DNF.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	01:00:18	04:57:59	02:56:28	08:59:08	-26:05	US$ 30000
2	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	00:57:49	04:54:31	03:03:04	09:00:31	-01:45	US$ 15000
3	Amanda Stevens	USA	00:51:15	04:57:32	03:05:47	09:01:27	-12:04	US$ 8000
4	Tine Deckers	BEL	00:59:15	04:50:19	03:14:03	09:08:29	03:44	US$ 6500
5	Laurel Wassner	USA	00:52:51	05:03:11	03:07:27	09:09:47	-08:40	US$ 5000
6	Haley Chura	USA	00:49:35	04:58:29	03:20:47	09:14:03	-00:34	US$ 3500
7	Mareen Hufe	GER	01:00:27	04:51:32	03:17:09	09:14:50	00:40	US$ 2500
8	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	00:53:03	05:05:09	03:11:47	09:15:08	-15:23	US$ 2000
9	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	01:01:12	04:48:36	03:29:08	09:23:35	14:12	US$ 1500
10	Ana Lidia Borba	BRA	01:01:08	05:11:49	03:23:44	09:42:27	-12:24	US$ 1000
11	Lucie Reed	CZE	00:52:47	05:05:14	03:45:09	09:48:13	31:12
	Astrid Ganzow	GER	01:01:22	04:51:35		DNF
	Mariana Andrade	BRA	01:00:11	05:08:53		DNF
	Laura Barrena	ARG	01:17:26	06:02:32		DNF
	Ashley Clifford	USA	00:55:38			DNF

Challenge Denmark 2015 (June 13th)

February 26, 2017

ChallengeDK

Challenge Denmark is a new race indicating Challenge’s continuing commitment to the Danish triathlon market (after loosing the races in Copenhagen and Aarhus when WTC bought the company running these races). Race director Claus Vesterby (husband of Pro athlete Michelle Vesterby) is trying to build a great race that also appeals to the family of athletes – the race is run around the original Legoland in Billund, Denmark. In addition to the full distance race covered in this post, there is another one over the half distance with strong athletes such as Martin Jensen, Dirk Bockel or Mary Beth Ellis on the start list.

As this is the first time the race is run, there are no expected times.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Overall
1	Christophe Bastie	FRA	n/a	08:53:59	00:53:35	04:43:23	03:12:12	100
2	Dejan Patrcevic	CRO	n/a	08:55:26	00:52:47	05:02:21	02:56:56	108
3	Sergio Marques	POR	n/a	08:56:27	00:54:59	05:00:18	02:58:36	113
4	Chris Fischer	DEN	n/a	08:57:11	00:53:14	04:50:28	03:04:16	117
5	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	n/a	09:00:02	00:55:15	04:53:55	03:05:28	128
6	Georg Potrebitsch	GER	n/a	09:06:59	00:49:50	04:57:08	03:15:31	(151)
7	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	n/a	09:08:23	00:57:07	04:58:17	03:02:42	162
8	Thijs Koelen	NED	n/a	09:15:37	00:52:33	04:52:31	03:14:57	(192)
9	Jens Kaiser	GER	n/a	09:17:45	00:58:36	04:54:10	03:16:13	(198)
10	Marin Koceic	CRO	n/a	09:24:49	00:52:18	04:59:15	03:12:07	(239)
11	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	n/a	09:33:49	00:58:52	04:55:50	03:24:57	(269)
12	Jesse Vondracek	USA	n/a	09:34:45	00:55:25	05:11:16	03:17:48	273
13	Stefan Eichheimer	GER	n/a	09:39:04	00:57:36	04:56:28	03:18:39	(293)
14	Steven Osborne	GBR	n/a	09:43:13	00:57:25	05:25:07	03:10:51	(305)
15	Armin Atzlinger	AUT	n/a	10:03:58	00:54:29	05:17:14	03:32:00	(372)
	Blaz Brecko	SLO	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Anders Christensen	DNK	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Markus Hoermann	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Magnus Magnoy	SWE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Dominic Rohan-Gates	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Peter Seidel	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	Christian Woelsted	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Overall
1	Beate Goertz	GER	n/a	09:57:58	01:04:49	05:12:56	03:27:50	81
2	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	n/a	10:08:11	00:57:49	05:31:11	03:24:41	(103)
3	Kristin Lie	NOR	n/a	10:13:41	01:11:55	05:18:24	03:31:06	110
4	Celia Kuch	GER	n/a	10:18:34	01:03:10	05:25:20	03:37:26	124
5	Kathrin Walther	GER	n/a	10:20:34	01:00:03	05:27:37	03:40:41	131
6	Louise Rundqvist	SWE	n/a	10:28:03	01:06:25	05:31:10	03:30:49	(146)
7	Vanessa Pereira	POR	n/a	10:44:57	01:02:41	05:43:14	03:45:26	159
	Susanne Svendsen	DEN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Dirk Wijnalda: 27% (3-1)
Georg Potrebitsch: 23% (3-1)
Chris Fischer: 23% (3-1)
Sergio Marques: 10% (9-1)
Christophe Bastie: 8% (12-1)
Dejan Patrcevic: 7% (14-1)
Petr Vabrousek: 2% (40-1)

Female Race Participants

Beate Goertz: 25% (3-1)
Carolin Lehrieder: 23% (3-1)
Kathrin Walther: 18% (4-1)
Celia Kuch: 13% (7-1)
Kristin Lie: 11% (8-1)
Louise Rundqvist: 9% (10-1)

Ironman Lanzarote 2015 – Analyzing Results

February 26, 2017

Race Conditions

With a course rating of -12:47, Lanzarote is a very slow course – but this year it was even slower: Strong winds led to a bike adjustment of -31:21, the second slowest only to the “legendary” bike leg of the last IM St. George in 2012. Not only did this lead to slow bike times, but also to a pretty high number of DNFs (42% for the men, 21% for the women Pros).

Male Race Results

Christian Kramer was leading the race for a long time and with a 5:05 had the best bike leg and had a solid sub-3 marathon. But in his second Ironman, Italian Alessandro Degasperi had a great 2:47:15 run and took the lead 3k from the finish. Third place went to Mauro Baertsch who was able to beat his expected time by almost 30 minutes.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	00:51:10	05:12:12	02:47:15	08:56:49	-06:51	US$ 5000
2	Christian Kramer	GER	00:48:20	05:05:51	02:59:14	08:59:30	-05:36	US$ 2750
3	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	00:52:04	05:10:48	02:54:13	09:04:45	-29:27	US$ 1750
4	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	ESP	00:48:33	05:24:26	02:51:42	09:10:25	00:28	US$ 1250
5	Bert Jammaer	BEL	00:48:25	05:09:27	03:08:17	09:12:05	-03:11	US$ 1000
6	Daniel Herlbauer	AUT	00:51:26	05:20:29	03:07:24	09:25:58	-06:40	US$ 750
7	Sergio Marques	POR	00:54:42	05:29:57	02:56:58	09:27:58	-01:57
8	Will Clarke	GBR	00:48:19	05:17:29	03:16:36	09:28:31	n/a
9	Cedric Lassonde	FRA	00:53:36	05:23:22	03:14:21	09:39:15	13:31
10	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	00:51:29	05:21:27	03:21:32	09:40:57	-18:00
11	Guy Crawford	NZL	00:48:21	05:17:24	03:30:49	09:44:09	07:19
12	Mark Oude Bennink	NED	00:48:11	05:36:11	03:15:23	09:47:40	15:16
13	Henrik Oftedal	NOR	00:58:13	05:22:40	03:20:16	09:50:18	-10:41
14	Marcus Hultgren	SWE	00:56:22	05:39:46	03:14:09	09:57:19	-09:04
15	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	00:56:25	05:44:12	03:23:14	10:11:04	15:20
16	James Brown	GBR	01:01:00	05:43:23	03:39:27	10:30:51	33:46
17	Christoph Schlagbauer	AUT	00:57:34	05:35:35	04:31:15	11:11:17	n/a
18	Tom Angerer	AUT	00:57:55	06:09:36	04:52:23	12:10:27	n/a
	Rayco Marrero Avero	ESP	00:51:39	05:26:01		DNF
	Frederic Schaffner	FRA	00:55:42	05:27:10		DNF
	Guillaume Jeannin	FRA	00:51:59	05:35:53		DNF
	Miguel Platero	ESP	00:52:28	05:38:32		DNF
	Owen Cummins	IRL	00:48:16	05:43:37		DNF
	Craig Twigg	GBR	00:51:40	05:58:14		DNF
	Dominik Berger	AUT	00:48:43	06:01:27		DNF
	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	00:48:14			DNF
	Konstantin Bachor	GER	00:48:27			DNF
	Herve Banti	MEX	00:49:13			DNF
	Antonio Cardona	ESP	00:53:46			DNF
	Gilian Oriet	SUI	01:00:59			DNF

Christian Kramer (now 4.055 points) should be safe for a Kona slot, Miquel Blanchard Tinto (3.520) is close, but will need to score some more points in 70.3s.

Female Race Results

Michi Herlbauer had the lead after the swim, but at 40k Diana Riesler took the lead and had the fastest bike time by a wide margin. Her lead into T2 was 17 minutes and there wasn’t much change on the run. Diana won the race in front of Michi. Third place went to Caroline Livesay.

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time	Diff to expected	Prize Money
1	Diana Riesler	GER	00:55:40	05:37:11	03:16:20	09:56:03	-06:52	US$ 5000
2	Michi Herlbauer	AUT	00:53:21	05:58:16	03:15:05	10:13:49	18:11	US$ 2750
3	Caroline Livesey	GBR	00:58:47	05:59:25	03:25:52	10:31:56	-03:00	US$ 1750
4	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	01:05:31	06:07:41	03:12:47	10:33:42	01:51	US$ 1250
5	Verena Walter	GER	00:57:52	06:06:20	03:32:47	10:44:40	25:47	US$ 1000
6	Anne Jensen	DNK	01:06:27	05:54:31	03:39:54	10:48:40	n/a	US$ 750
7	Saleta Castro	ESP	00:53:42	06:09:27	03:41:01	10:52:23	05:15
8	Alena Stevens	SVK	00:57:52	06:22:27	03:27:16	10:54:59	-11:16
9	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	00:53:49	06:13:20	03:42:08	10:58:04	22:58
10	Corina Hengartner	SWI	01:01:06	06:04:20	03:53:45	11:07:43	n/a
11	Amy Forshaw	GBR	01:01:16	06:24:18	03:35:32	11:09:24	08:07
	Lisa Roberts	USA	01:04:09	06:51:26		DNF
	Eimear Mullan	IRL	00:57:59			DNF
	Nicole Woysch	GER	00:58:11			DNF

Among the women, only Diana Riesler (now 6.270) was able to significantly improve her Kona positions – she should be safe for a July slot.

Ironman Brasil 2015 (May 31st) – Predictions

February 26, 2017

IMBrasil You can submit your own predictions for IM Brasil at IM-Predictions.

Updates (May 30th): After checkin, Guto Antunes, Anja Beranek, Diana Riesler and Eimear Mullan are no longer on the start list.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Olaf Sabatschus (GER)	08:50:37	Joanna Zeiger (USA)	09:31:43
2006	Oscar Galindez (ARG)	08:15:19	Lisbeth Kristensen (DEN)	09:20:47
2007	Oscar Galindez (ARG)	08:21:09	Nina Kraft (GER)	09:12:40
2008	Eduardo Sturla (ARG)	08:28:24	Fernanda Keller (BRA)	09:42:50
2009	Eduardo Sturla (ARG)	08:13:39	Dede Griesbauer (USA)	09:10:15
2010	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:07:38	Tereza Macel (CZE)	09:19:12
2011	Eduardo Sturla (ARG)	08:13:12	Amy Marsh (USA)	09:07:49
2012	Ezequiel Morales (ARG)	08:22:40	Sofie Goos (BEL)	09:17:42
2013	Timothy O’Donnell (USA)	08:01:32	Amanda Stevens (USA)	09:05:53
2014	Igor Amorelli (BRA)	08:07:54	Sara Gross (CAN)	08:56:35

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Igor Amorelli	BRA	00:47:38	04:26:06	02:52:07	08:07:54
2	Santiago Ascenco	BRA	00:51:08	04:20:44	02:55:43	08:11:46
3	Marcel Zamora	ESP	00:50:49	04:26:41	02:53:22	08:16:16

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Sara Gross	CAN	00:55:41	04:49:42	03:06:12	08:56:35
2	Sofie Goos	BEL	00:56:41	04:49:24	03:09:41	09:00:21
3	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	00:59:28	04:55:21	03:02:53	09:02:44

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:01:32	Timothy O’Donnell	2013-05-26
Swim	overall	00:42:26	Luke McKenzie	2010-05-30
Bike	overall	04:20:44	Santiago Ascenco	2014-05-25
Run	overall	02:49:31	Ezequiel Morales	2010-05-30
Total	female	08:56:35	Sara Gross	2014-05-25
Swim	female	00:45:48	Dede Griesbauer	2010-05-30
Bike	female	04:46:38	Jessie Donavan	2014-05-25
Run	female	03:02:53	Ariane Monticeli	2014-05-25

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Brasil is 17:19.

Race Adjustments for IM Brasil

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	17:51	01:58	04:01	00:49	21	17:51	01:58	04:01	00:49
2007	14:50	-00:15	06:43	03:00	24	16:20	00:51	05:22	01:55
2008	09:19	-06:37	11:23	01:14	25	14:00	-01:38	07:22	01:41
2009	17:23	-00:30	09:10	03:46	26	14:51	-01:21	07:49	02:12
2010	21:29	04:10	09:36	00:25	36	16:10	-00:15	08:11	01:51
2011	20:26	n/a	n/a	n/a	26	16:53	-00:15	08:11	01:51
2012	15:35	02:31	21:24	-04:24	23	16:42	00:13	10:23	00:48
2013	15:44	02:40	16:05	04:16	33	16:34	00:34	11:12	01:18
2014	23:14	00:24	21:43	05:46	29	17:19	00:33	12:31	01:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Brasil is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$. The winners will receive automatic Kona slots.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	41	Brent McMahon	CAN	07:52:47	08:18:15	00:45:58	04:17:42	02:44:06	(4)
2	3	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	08:09:06	08:37:20	00:46:08	04:23:52	02:54:06	38
3	7	Marino Vanhoenacker	BEL	08:10:16	08:27:46	00:48:56	04:20:05	02:56:15	15
4	38	Matt Trautman	ZAF	08:12:55	08:30:24	00:48:49	04:24:29	02:54:38	17
5	6	Paul Matthews	AUS	08:13:50	08:26:11	00:45:58	04:27:53	02:54:58	11
6	10	Denis Chevrot	FRA	08:16:27	08:38:58	00:46:41	04:33:01	02:51:46	43
7	1	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:18:07	08:38:50	00:46:38	04:29:41	02:56:47	42
8	8	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	08:19:47	08:38:58	00:49:05	04:30:57	02:54:44	43
9	9	Kyle Buckingham	ZAF	08:19:54	08:33:42	00:48:34	04:24:40	03:01:39	29
10	2	Santiago Ascenco	BRA	08:21:08	08:45:52	00:49:56	04:27:41	02:58:32	(66)
11	12	Daniel Fontana	ITA	08:25:22	08:46:23	00:48:30	04:32:33	02:59:19	68
12	32	Mike Aigroz	SUI	08:28:19	08:52:32	00:47:58	04:31:46	03:03:36	96
13	23	Per Bittner	GER	08:28:20	08:44:33	00:49:18	04:33:14	03:00:48	62
14	29	Anton Blokhin	UKR	08:28:36	08:48:21	00:48:14	04:35:32	02:59:51	81
15	4	Guilherme Manocchio	BRA	08:29:22	08:55:33	00:48:09	04:38:19	02:57:53	112
16	19	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:30:03	08:59:54	00:52:15	04:29:46	03:03:01	129
17	11	Mario De Elias	ARG	08:36:29	09:13:55	00:49:47	04:39:45	03:01:58	(189)
18	13	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	08:39:10	09:04:00	00:47:36	04:50:30	02:56:03	148
19	40	Nick Baldwin	SEY	08:39:58	08:57:33	00:52:44	04:36:55	03:05:18	120
20	16	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:40:52	08:55:43	00:53:47	04:30:26	03:11:39	113
21	17	Balazs Csoke	HUN	08:43:00	09:00:43	00:47:11	04:37:19	03:13:31	132
22	42	Michael Davidson	ZAF	08:44:40	09:01:53	00:55:10	04:44:44	02:59:46	136
23	39	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	08:46:00	09:07:26	00:53:16	04:36:47	03:10:57	158
24	26	Ciro Violin	BRA	08:46:43	09:26:29	00:50:08	04:41:04	03:10:32	(243)
25	15	Marcel Bischof	GER	08:46:57	09:19:14	00:55:06	04:40:43	03:06:08	208
26	20	Ivan Risti	ITA	08:48:00	09:16:27	00:47:11	04:54:45	03:01:04	(197)
27	28	Frank Silvestrin	BRA	08:48:11	09:10:19	00:48:19	04:44:16	03:10:37	176
28	36	Felipe De Oliveira Manente	BRA	08:52:14	09:36:39	00:51:38	04:43:39	03:11:57	(282)
29	27	~~Guto Antunes~~	~~BRA~~	~~09:03:27~~	~~09:35:35~~	~~00:50:55~~	~~04:58:25~~	~~03:09:06~~	~~(278)~~
30	18	Rene Vallant	AUT	09:06:49	09:41:44	00:55:12	04:37:24	03:29:12	(304)
31	5	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	09:18:39	10:04:38	00:46:43	05:01:08	03:25:47	378
32	25	Edmilson Pereira	BRA	09:20:08	09:53:16	00:49:40	05:12:47	03:12:41	(347)
33	30	Christian Carletto	ARG	09:23:18	09:50:49	00:54:09	04:56:09	03:27:59	(335)
34	37	Gaston Duran	ARG	09:46:36	10:21:17	00:57:40	05:10:09	03:33:47	(428)
35	35	Andres Darricau	Arg	09:54:00	10:26:01	00:54:51	04:58:43	03:55:26	(439)
	14	Jason Britton	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	21	Alejo Badino	ARG	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	22	Jorge Vazquez	MEX	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	24	Luan Ortiz Silva	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	31	Sergio Carrettoni	ARG	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	33	Bruno Lazaretti	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	64	~~Anja Beranek~~	~~GER~~	~~09:04:53~~	~~09:32:43~~	~~00:52:03~~	~~04:49:36~~	~~03:18:14~~	~~(30)~~
2	59	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:05:28	09:38:44	00:57:43	04:53:21	03:09:25	43
3	65	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	09:06:14	09:30:10	00:55:55	05:01:34	03:03:45	26
4	68	~~Diana Riesler~~	~~GER~~	~~09:07:03~~	~~09:33:41~~	~~00:56:51~~	~~04:48:23~~	~~03:16:49~~	31
5	53	Haley Chura	USA	09:11:39	09:37:25	00:47:49	05:02:02	03:16:48	40
6	52	Amanda Stevens	USA	09:12:26	09:35:48	00:49:35	04:55:30	03:22:20	34
7	71	Asa Lundstroem	SWE	09:14:50	09:32:35	00:59:28	04:57:02	03:13:20	29
8	54	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:18:17	09:53:18	01:00:13	05:05:20	03:07:45	72
9	76	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:19:10	09:37:00	00:59:24	04:52:01	03:22:45	39
10	60	Lucie Reed	CZE	09:20:19	09:47:03	00:50:06	05:04:01	03:21:11	55
11	77	~~Eimear Mullan~~	~~IRL~~	~~09:21:20~~	~~09:52:51~~	~~00:58:27~~	~~05:05:52~~	~~03:12:01~~	70
12	70	Ashley Clifford	USA	09:23:50	09:40:16	00:54:06	05:14:22	03:10:22	46
13	61	Astrid Ganzow	GER	09:24:08	09:43:53	00:58:17	04:58:53	03:21:58	49
14	66	Laurel Wassner	USA	09:24:36	09:46:54	00:53:51	05:14:04	03:11:42	53
15	67	Mariana Andrade	BRA	09:31:32	10:16:16	00:59:08	04:56:27	03:30:56	117
16	58	Mette Pettersen Moe	NOR	09:34:55	10:01:39	00:52:05	05:02:20	03:35:31	(88)
17	72	Karen Thibodeau	CAN	09:40:11	10:05:18	00:55:24	05:15:01	03:24:46	97
18	74	Ana Lidia Borba	BRA	09:40:27	10:25:02	00:54:56	04:59:30	03:41:01	143
	62	Laura Barrena	ARG	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

KPR Situation

As a Regional Championship, Basil is a P-4000 race so a lot of athletes that are trying to qualify for Kona will be on the start line.

Female

In order to qualify for Kona, Liz Lyles (4.390) basically needs an Ironman finish – even if she is looking for a much better result in Brasil.

In addition to Liz, there is a large number of athletes that want to score the points they still need for a Kona slot. Ashley Clifford has currently the most points (4.130-1.070) but as she already raced three IMs she is effectively sitting at 3.060 points. Asa Lundstroem (3.740-405) has also three IMs. Ariane Monticelli (3.810), Haley Chura (3.240), Mareen Hufe (3.155) and Astrid Ganzow (2.520) can add another IM to their score. Anja Beranek (2.170) and Amanda Stevens (2.140) would need at least a podium finish to have enough points for a Kona slot.

We also have Diana Riesler (4.270), Mette Moe (2.060) and Eimear Mullan (2.000), but it’s doubtful that they will start in Brasil as they are also on the list for Lanzarote just one week before Brasil.

Male

Matt Trautmann (5.525) and Brent McMahon (4.380) should already be safe for a Kona slot at this point, they are in Brasil to gain more racing experience and maybe win another Ironman.

Things are more critical for athletes that need more points: Guilherme Manochio (2.685), Denis Chevrot (2.500), Tim O’Donnell (2.230), Igor Amorelli (1.885) and Paul Matthews (1.810) can add one more IM to their score. Others have already raced three IMs, so their worst score will get bumped from the total. This includes Per Bittner (3.030-540), Nick Baldwin (2.400-540) and Karol Dzalaj (2.349-305).

In addition to these, almost all athletes have a chance to qualify for Kona with a podium finish in Brasil, this includes Kona 2014 participant Kyle Buckingham (1.330).

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Marino Vanhoenacker has announced that he won’t be targeting Kona any more, but still wants to win a few more Ironman races – he’s my favorite for Brasil. He’ll be competing against athletes that need Kona points (as noted above), especially “TO” Tim O’Donnell, Paul Matthews, Denis Chevrot or Igor Amorelli. Brent McMahon and Matt Trautmann can race without any points pressure – they’ll be focused on another Ironman win:

Marino Vanhoenacker: 24% (3-1)
Timothy O’Donnell: 23% (3-1)
Brent McMahon: 19% (4-1)
Paul Matthews: 9% (10-1)
Denis Chevrot: 8% (11-1)
Matt Trautman: 5% (18-1)
Igor Amorelli: 4% (25-1)

Female Race Participants

It’s very hard to pick a favorite in the pretty even field at Brasil. Based on the number I see a slight advantage for Tine Deckers, but she had two DNFs in her last IMs in Mont Tremblant and South Africa. Haley Chura seems to be on a good upward path, her last IM was a win in Fortaleza. Liz Lyles had great results in 2014 (2nd in Germany and 7th in Kona) and showed her good form by winning Wildflower. Anja Beranek has taken a bit of a break from IM racing (her last was a DNF in Kona 2013) – it will be interesting to see what she’ll be able to do. Amanda Stevens will be close to the front for most of the day, but she’ll need a great run to repeat her 2013 win.

Tine Deckers: 35% (2-1)
Haley Chura: 21% (4-1)
~~Diana Riesler: 13% (7-1)~~
Elizabeth Lyles: 10% (9-1)
Anja Beranek: 9% (10-1)
Amanda Stevens: 6% (17-1)

Ironman Lanzarote 2015 (May 23rd) – Predictions

February 26, 2017

IMLanzarote

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST)	08:55:38	Virginia Berasategui (ESP)	10:09:40
2006	Ain-Alar Juhanson (EST)	08:54:14	Karin Thuerig (SUI)	09:52:45
2007	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:49:39	Tiina Boman (FIN)	09:58:42
2008	Bert Jammaer (BEL)	08:59:40	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	10:02:30
2009	Bert Jammaer (BEL)	08:54:03	Bella Bayliss (GBR)	09:54:58
2010	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	08:37:43	Catriona Morrison (GBR)	10:03:53
2011	Timo Bracht (GER)	08:30:34	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	09:28:12
2012	Victor Del Corral (ESP)	08:44:39	Michelle Vesterby (DEN)	09:58:06
2013	Faris Al-Sultan (GER)	08:42:40	Kristin Moeller (GER)	09:37:34
2014	Romain Guillaume (FRA)	08:47:39	Lucy Gossage (GBR)	09:41:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Romain Guillaume	FRA	00:47:31	04:56:07	02:57:55	08:47:39
2	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	ESP	00:49:58	05:13:53	02:48:12	08:58:06
3	Bert Jammaer	BEL	00:47:51	05:02:55	03:03:35	09:00:44

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Lucy Gossage	GBR	00:55:37	05:31:38	03:07:20	09:41:40
2	Susan Blatt	GER	00:56:28	05:27:07	03:14:24	09:44:59
3	Corinne Abraham	GBR	00:56:23	05:42:53	03:06:10	09:51:41

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:30:34	Timo Bracht	2011-05-21
Swim	overall	00:46:15	Luc Van Lierde	2006-05-20
Bike	overall	04:40:58	Maik Twelsiek	2010-05-22
Run	overall	02:44:29	Gerrit Schellens	2005-06-04
Total	female	09:28:12	Rachel Joyce	2011-05-21
Swim	female	00:50:40	Hillary Biscay	2010-05-22
Bike	female	05:26:23	Tara Norton	2010-05-22
Run	female	02:58:37	Kristin Moeller	2013-05-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lanzarote is – 12:47.

Race Adjustments for IM Lanzarote

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	-03:59	02:16	-19:18	01:23	25	-03:59	02:16	-19:18	01:23
2007	-11:15	-01:06	-09:09	-04:34	31	-07:37	00:35	-14:14	-01:36
2008	-13:30	00:45	-18:45	04:59	37	-09:35	00:38	-15:44	00:36
2009	-09:00	-00:10	-14:27	03:47	40	-09:26	00:26	-15:25	01:24
2010	-07:03	01:31	-09:52	00:21	32	-08:57	00:39	-14:18	01:11
2011	-08:44	02:19	-16:36	04:49	20	-08:55	00:56	-14:41	01:47
2012	-18:10	00:50	-17:44	04:03	16	-10:14	00:55	-15:07	02:07
2013	-19:20	00:20	-19:52	03:26	18	-11:23	00:51	-15:43	02:17
2014	-24:00	00:47	-18:38	-01:35	30	-12:47	00:50	-16:02	01:51

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lanzarote is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	4	Christian Kramer	GER	08:42:37	08:33:30	00:46:44	04:56:33	02:54:20	28
2	1	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	ESP	08:46:32	08:42:53	00:48:01	05:04:58	02:48:32	55
3	3	Konstantin Bachor	GER	08:47:41	08:45:11	00:48:24	04:47:40	03:06:37	62
4	11	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	08:49:35	08:47:44	00:50:29	04:57:30	02:56:36	(75)
5	2	Bert Jammaer	BEL	08:51:42	08:48:10	00:48:08	04:59:26	02:59:08	78
6	16	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:51:45	08:40:27	00:51:42	04:55:37	02:59:25	51
7	10	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	08:55:59	08:59:06	00:46:59	05:01:47	03:02:13	(127)
8	12	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:56:05	08:47:31	00:52:45	05:04:23	02:53:58	74
9	13	Sergio Marques	POR	09:00:28	09:02:01	00:53:10	05:08:18	02:54:01	140
10	48	Swen Sundberg	GER	09:04:12	08:48:40	00:51:48	05:02:21	03:05:03	83
11	35	Cedric Lassonde	FRA	09:09:50	09:07:55	00:53:03	05:03:43	03:08:04	(164)
12	15	Guy Crawford	NZL	09:15:31	09:08:03	00:47:48	05:00:25	03:22:17	164
13	36	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	09:15:55	09:07:42	00:53:26	05:15:33	03:01:55	163
14	31	Mark Oude Bennink	NED	09:16:11	09:08:47	00:47:38	05:06:16	03:17:18	(171)
15	18	Dominik Berger	AUT	09:17:18	09:02:38	00:47:49	05:07:01	03:17:28	144
16	23	Daniel Herlbauer	AUT	09:17:46	09:15:50	00:53:13	05:09:20	03:10:13	(200)
17	49	Miguel Platero	ESP	09:29:38	09:30:29	00:52:01	05:08:19	03:24:18	(258)
18	41	Craig Twigg	GBR	09:35:17	09:46:51	00:52:15	05:04:34	03:33:28	320
19	46	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	09:35:42	09:31:11	00:55:59	05:15:36	03:19:07	(262)
20	45	James Brown	GBR	09:36:54	09:31:23	01:00:07	05:18:43	03:13:04	263
21	34	Herve Banti	MEX	09:39:20	09:48:55	00:51:32	05:24:07	03:18:41	(328)
22	32	Henrik Oftedal	NOR	09:41:08	09:32:04	01:00:35	05:14:59	03:20:34	267
23	37	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	09:44:04	09:42:02	00:52:29	05:07:42	03:38:54	(309)
24	20	Marcus Hultgren	SWE	09:47:26	09:42:53	00:56:58	05:22:40	03:22:48	(310)
25	50	Ivan Kharin	RUS	10:04:43	10:02:58	01:06:24	05:27:14	03:26:04	(378)
26	33	Remmert Wielinga	NED	10:25:23	10:30:40	01:11:45	05:24:17	03:44:20	(456)
	9	Will Clarke	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	17	Gilian Oriet	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	38	Rayco Marrero avero	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	39	Guillaume Jeannin	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	40	Frederic Schaffner	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	42	Tom Angerer	AUT	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	43	Christoph Schlagbauer	AUT	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	44	Owen Cummins	IRL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	47	Antonio Cardona	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	21	Diana Riesler	GER	09:38:32	09:33:41	00:56:48	05:19:00	03:17:44	30
2	22	Michi Herlbauer	AUT	09:38:40	09:36:39	00:53:44	05:28:24	03:11:32	(38)
3	19	Lisa Roberts	USA	09:51:42	09:35:54	01:04:05	05:34:41	03:07:57	35
4	6	Eimear Mullan	IRL	09:53:39	09:52:51	00:58:19	05:37:46	03:12:35	71
5	26	Verena Walter	GER	10:00:49	09:58:44	00:57:56	05:30:49	03:27:04	(85)
6	14	Kate Bevilaqua	AUS	10:04:11	10:20:47	00:54:43	05:36:48	03:27:40	(137)
7	28	Evi Neuscheler	GER	10:04:33	09:54:16	01:02:07	05:30:40	03:26:45	75
8	5	Saleta Castro	ESP	10:07:16	10:15:01	00:54:56	05:43:39	03:23:41	(117)
9	24	Mette Pettersen Moe	NOR	10:08:01	10:01:39	00:52:02	05:34:27	03:36:32	(91)
10	8	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	10:11:04	10:00:40	01:06:33	05:42:19	03:17:12	86
11	29	Caroline Livesey	GBR	10:18:11	10:16:02	01:00:38	05:46:43	03:25:50	(120)
12	27	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:32:22	10:22:34	00:57:23	05:46:57	03:43:02	142
13	7	Amy Forshaw	GBR	10:35:52	10:28:18	01:03:09	05:57:39	03:30:05	152
14	25	Alena Stevens	SVK	10:49:10	10:46:55	01:02:32	06:00:36	03:41:02	(165)
	30	Anne Jensen	DNK	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	51	Corina Hengartner	SWI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Christian Kramer has to be considered the favorite in this field, but the hard bike course could help strong bikers Konstantin Bachor build a big lead. Miguel Blanchard Tinto has finished second here last year and would love to be the next Spanish winner in Lanzarote after Eneko Llanos and Victor Del Corral.

Christian Kramer: 34% (2-1)
Konstantin Bachor: 21% (4-1)
Miquel Blanchart Tinto: 19% (4-1)
Stephen Bayliss: 8% (12-1)
Sergio Marques: 6% (15-1)
Bert Jammaer: 5% (19-1)
Marc Duelsen: 4% (27-1)

From a KPR perspective a win or second place would be enough for Miquel (2.560 points), Christian (2.455) or Konstantin (2.240) to secure a Kona slot. Will Clarke (1.665 points) is racing his first IM and could shake up things.

Female Race Participants

Based on her previous results, Diana is the clear favorite, but Eimear and Lisa are also strong contenders for the win. Michi Herlbauer has only one IM in her resume, but that is a sub-9 in Austria. Kate Bevilaqua has struggled with a string of DNFs – hopefully she’ll be able to complete an Ironman again!

Diana Riesler: 50% (1-1)
Eimear Mullan: 16% (5-1)
Lisa Roberts: 14% (6-1)
Michi Herlbauer: 12% (7-1)
Kate Bevilaqua: 4% (23-1)

Diana (4.090 points) is quite close to qualifying for Kona. For Amy Forshaw (2.180), Shiao Yu-Li (2.100), Mette Moe (2.060) and Eimear (2.000) even a win in Lanzarote won’t be enough to qualify.