Ironman South Africa 2017 (April 2nd) – Seedings

IMSA_LogoWith Ironman South Africa, the first Regional Championship of 2017 is coming up, offering direct Kona slots for the winners. The resulting fields are very strong, both defending Champions Kaisa Lehtonen and Ben Hoffman are back. On the male side we have the three last winners (Nils Frommhold, Frederik Van Lierde and Ben Hoffmann), on the female side we have Kona winner Daniela Ryf and three of the five Regional Champions from last year (Kaisa Lehtonen, Julia Gajer who won IM Texas and Jodie Cunnama who won IM Cairns).

Update March 28th: Jodie Cunnama announced she won’t be racing “for health reasons”.

Update March 27th: On Twitter Rachel McBride said “Wish I was there! Alas not racing”.

Update March 17th: Mareen Hufe (planning to race IM Brasil) and Laura Siddall won’t be racing.

Update March 20th: Alessandro Degasperi has announced on his blog he’ll focus on IM Lanzarote.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Reed (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54
2015 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:16:35 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:26:56
2016 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:12:37 Kaisa Lehtonen (FIN) 09:06:50

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:52:58 04:29:36 02:45:50 08:12:37
2 Tim Van Berkel AUS 00:50:00 04:32:33 02:48:15 08:14:51
3 Marko Albert EST 00:49:37 04:30:53 02:54:19 08:18:52

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 00:58:21 04:59:41 03:02:34 09:06:50
2 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:58:21 05:04:26 03:02:43 09:09:49
3 Lucy Gossage GBR 01:03:20 04:56:10 03:07:36 09:11:43

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:05:36 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:45:48 Gerrit Schellens 2007-03-18
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:40 Lucie Reed 2009-04-05
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 02:59.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:35 -04:53 -01:53 -00:21 28 01:35 -04:53 -01:53 -00:21
2007 01:16 -08:52 03:31 00:49 33 01:26 -06:52 00:49 00:14
2008 15:32 01:13 11:14 04:15 36 06:08 -04:11 04:18 01:34
2009 17:18 02:09 10:45 -01:03 28 08:55 -02:36 05:54 00:55
2010 09:39 -00:15 08:15 01:15 34 09:04 -02:08 06:23 00:59
2011 15:31 00:13 14:40 01:56 36 10:08 -01:44 07:45 01:08
2012 -11:59 -08:35 -08:23 01:54 28 06:59 -02:43 05:27 01:15
2013 06:23 -01:17 11:20 03:07 36 of 44 06:54 -02:32 06:11 01:29
2014 -12:13 -01:05 -08:46 -02:56 29 of 40 04:47 -02:22 04:32 00:59
2015 -13:45 -00:47 -10:09 -00:57 49 of 61 02:56 -02:13 03:04 00:48
2016 03:32 -02:43 09:06 01:34 42 of 53 02:59 -02:16 03:37 00:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete to end each leg or finish the race. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Racetime Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:30
Female Pro Start 06:35
Age Group Start 06:45
First Male Out of Water 00:50 07:20
First Female Out of Water 00:51 07:26
First Male End of Bike 05:21 11:51
First Female End of Bike 05:49 12:24
Male Winner 08:13 14:43
Female Winner 08:49 15:24

Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • +8 hours: Melbourne (AEST, DST ends on April 2nd)
  • -1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30
  • no change: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30
  • – 5 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
  • – 8 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:13:03 08:19:35 00:50:04 04:26:50 02:51:08 80% +9% -11% (22) 8
2 3 Nils Frommhold GER 08:15:45 08:19:07 00:49:53 04:26:42 02:54:10 83% +0% -17% (8) 6
3 1 Ben Hoffman USA 08:16:55 08:25:18 00:51:18 04:31:09 02:49:27 34% +50% -16% (18) 19
4 4 Boris Stein GER 08:20:51 08:24:41 00:54:49 04:29:07 02:51:54 65% +35% -0% (7) 15
5 8 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:23:55 08:25:37 00:50:21 04:29:04 02:59:30 90% +0% -10% (28) 21
6 10 David McNamee GBR 08:25:27 08:25:11 00:49:49 04:41:24 02:49:14 100% +0% -0% (5) 18
7 34 Joe Skipper GBR 08:27:12 08:34:59 00:56:35 04:34:05 02:51:32 32% +29% -40% (14) 48
8 28 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:29:44 08:42:52 00:51:47 04:30:32 03:02:25 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (77)
9 7 James Cunnama ZAF 08:29:55 08:34:05 00:51:37 04:36:20 02:56:57 57% +10% -33% (23) 38
10 5 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:30:31 08:35:14 00:53:18 04:42:44 02:49:28 73% +0% -27% (9) 50
11 6 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:31:17 08:43:10 00:50:53 04:33:35 03:01:50 62% +0% -38% (11) 78
12 13 Johann Ackermann GER 08:31:19 08:39:43 00:49:58 04:32:09 03:04:12 55% +0% -45% (8) 66
13 25 Christian Kramer GER 08:32:29 08:35:41 00:49:35 04:37:04 03:00:49 77% +7% -16% (19) 54
14 11 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:33:30 08:34:21 00:53:04 04:43:40 02:51:45 63% +0% -37% (17) 42
15 9 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:34:55 08:39:39 00:57:59 04:41:12 02:50:44 51% +0% -49% (15) 65
16 24 Markus Fachbach GER 08:34:58 08:35:48 00:52:40 04:38:06 02:59:12 69% +1% -31% (20) 55
17 38 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:36:22 08:47:47 00:51:53 04:37:15 03:02:14 56% +9% -35% (13) 92
18 40 Andrej Vistica CRO 08:36:24 08:40:28 00:55:30 04:39:12 02:56:43 83% +0% -17% (12) 71
19 31 Michael Ruenz GER 08:44:23 08:51:13 00:57:17 04:47:07 02:54:59 71% +0% -29% (9) 101
20 29 Ivan Risti ITA 08:46:21 09:04:06 00:50:42 04:46:30 03:04:09 39% +17% -44% (8) 154
21 23 Mario De Elias ARG 08:46:33 09:02:17 00:53:33 04:50:57 02:57:04 2% +54% -43% (7) 146
22 35 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 08:46:38 08:53:05 00:55:36 04:44:50 03:01:11 97% +3% -0% (8) 109
23 30 Roman Deisenhofer GER 08:48:15 08:57:56 00:55:06 04:40:25 03:07:43 32% +68% -0% (6) 126
24 12 Harry Wiltshire GBR 08:48:27 08:51:26 00:49:49 04:48:46 03:04:51 39% +26% -35% (18) 102
25 39 Diego Van Looy BEL 08:50:59 08:54:00 01:08:19 04:46:08 02:51:32 100% +0% -0% (3) 113
26 73 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:58:50 09:15:20 00:52:20 04:21:11 03:40:20 44% +56% -0% (2) (183)
27 21 Balazs Csoke HUN 08:58:59 09:03:32 00:50:01 04:52:33 03:11:26 47% +12% -41% (26) 152
28 26 Freddy Lampret ZAF 09:00:06 09:36:19 00:54:42 04:47:12 03:13:13 1% +30% -69% (9) (237)
29 37 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:01:44 09:14:30 00:58:43 04:51:43 03:06:18 69% +1% -29% (96) 179
30 20 Greg Close USA 09:08:51 09:22:01 01:01:17 04:57:05 03:05:29 63% +0% -37% (7) (199)
31 22 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:22:53 09:38:37 00:56:48 04:57:32 03:23:33 65% +35% -0% (5) 241
32 18 Bekim Christensen DEN 09:24:39 09:39:12 01:07:39 04:56:41 03:15:19 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (243)
33 15 Carlos Aznar Gallego ESP 09:27:03 09:41:39 01:06:27 05:06:47 03:08:48 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (246)
34 19 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:31:03 09:35:39 00:55:03 04:56:38 03:34:22 60% +0% -40% (5) 235
35 41 Valentin Zasypkin RUS 10:35:03 11:02:05 01:15:31 05:26:12 03:48:20 13% +23% -64% (5) (295)
36 33 Drew Scott USA 11:17:09 11:41:33 00:52:08 04:43:27 05:36:33 45% +0% -55% (2) (297)
14 Josh Amberger AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
16 Fredrik Baeckson SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
17 Vinicius Canhedo BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
32 Evert Scheltinga NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated 0% +0% -100% (2) (n/a)
36 Toumy Degham FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

 

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 43 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:49:25 08:41:40 00:53:37 04:50:15 03:00:33 85% +0% -15% (9) 1
2 42 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 09:10:40 09:12:57 00:58:02 05:05:14 03:02:23 100% +0% -0% (3) 4
3 44 Jodie Cunnama GBR 09:11:43 09:19:34 00:50:53 04:58:51 03:16:59 52% +0% -48% (12) 11
4 45 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:11:52 09:21:32 00:57:29 05:08:02 03:01:21 69% +0% -31% (5) 14
5 46 Julia Gajer GER 09:17:04 09:21:58 00:55:35 05:08:38 03:07:51 60% +0% -40% (12) (15)
6 47 Astrid Stienen GER 09:23:18 09:27:23 01:01:27 05:02:42 03:14:09 35% +28% -36% (10) 21
7 53 Laura Siddall GBR 09:23:29 09:32:32 01:00:04 05:02:08 03:16:16 63% +30% -7% (10) 33
8 48 Mareen Hufe GER 09:29:17 09:30:03 01:03:33 05:02:02 03:18:42 76% +15% -8% (23) 28
9 68 Danielle Mack USA 09:37:51 09:44:37 01:04:43 05:19:19 03:08:48 52% +20% -28% (8) 54
10 52 Kristin Moeller GER 09:40:14 09:42:40 01:06:39 05:25:55 03:02:41 80% +8% -12% (21) 51
11 49 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:40:46 09:44:35 01:01:09 05:15:17 03:19:19 100% +0% -0% (3) 53
12 64 Kirsty Jahn CAN 09:41:16 09:56:15 01:01:49 05:24:18 03:10:09 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (72)
13 65 Katja Konschak GER 09:42:18 09:51:07 00:56:14 05:25:21 03:15:42 42% +28% -30% (18) 63
14 74 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:42:58 09:44:58 01:04:36 05:20:56 03:12:26 52% +18% -29% (16) 56
15 69 Rachel McBride CAN 09:42:59 09:58:00 00:59:09 05:07:10 03:31:40 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (76)
16 72 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 09:43:30 09:41:27 01:03:59 05:20:50 03:13:41 100% +0% -0% (3) 47
17 60 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:43:48 09:42:24 01:02:54 05:16:16 03:19:38 83% +17% -0% (11) 50
18 71 Natascha Schmitt GER 09:43:53 09:57:04 00:57:09 05:12:21 03:29:23 44% +31% -25% (7) 73
19 50 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:44:05 09:50:13 01:04:31 05:21:33 03:13:00 34% +39% -27% (7) 61
20 59 Camille Deligny FRA 09:46:42 09:56:35 01:05:10 05:05:06 03:31:26 100% +0% -0% (2) (72)
21 66 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:47:19 10:02:14 00:58:10 05:19:25 03:24:44 38% +14% -49% (8) 82
22 56 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:47:39 09:54:01 01:01:46 05:11:44 03:29:09 50% +5% -45% (10) 68
23 51 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:52:11 10:03:14 01:14:04 05:16:31 03:16:36 100% +0% -0% (14) 84
24 54 Nikki Bartlett GBR 09:54:00 10:09:18 01:06:16 05:17:38 03:25:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (95)
25 67 Diane Luethi SUI 09:56:21 10:08:18 00:57:56 05:22:37 03:30:48 100% +0% -0% (2) (94)
26 57 Kate Comber GBR 09:57:34 10:00:50 00:56:51 05:25:21 03:30:23 100% +0% -0% (3) 78
27 61 Jenny Fletcher CAN 09:59:20 10:14:47 00:59:15 05:22:14 03:32:51 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (104)
28 70 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:09:34 10:16:48 01:15:23 05:20:25 03:28:46 83% +0% -17% (7) 107
29 55 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:12:34 10:32:18 01:08:48 05:13:20 03:45:27 71% +21% -8% (7) 134
30 63 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:15:44 10:27:56 01:02:51 05:44:14 03:23:39 50% +0% -50% (7) 125
58 Steph Corker CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
62 Manon Genet FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The male race has two favorites – the winners from the last two years. Frederik Van Lierde had a fantastic race in Port Elizabeth in 2015, but Ben might have the momentum after a great 2016 season. Nils Frommhold is the 2014 winner, he’s looking for a good result after a frustrating 2016 season cut short by another stress fracture. Boris Stein needs just a finish for a Kona slot, but as last year he’ll be racing aggressively to test for any weaknesses to work on over the summer.

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 33% (2-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 32% (2-1)
  • Nils Frommhold: 21% (4-1)
  • Boris Stein: 9% (10-1)

There is a number of other strong contenders not shown in the above list, for example I expect Eneko Llanos, Joe Skipper and David McNamee to contend for a podium spot.

Female Race Participants

There can’t be any discussion that two-time Kona champion Daniela Ryf has to be the favorite, even if the race is early in her season. Jodie Cunnama is likely to be leading after the swim, it’ll be interesting to see if she tries to go with Daniela on the bike, trying to reclaim her 2015 title that she lost after crashing under dubious circumstances last year. Kaisa Lehtonen has proven in Kona that her win at IM South Africa in 2016 wasn’t a “fluke result”, I’m looking forward to see her race after deciding to be coached by Siri Lindley last fall.

  • Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
  • Kaisa Lehtonen: 15% (6-1)
  • Jodie Cunnama: 7% (14-1)

Susie Cheetham (3rd in 2015, 2nd in 2016, so what’s in store for 2017?) should be in the mix for at least a podium spot, and I expect a number of German athletes such as Julia Gajer, Astrid Stienen or Mareen Hufe (more likely to racing IM Brasil) to have some good early season form as well. Laura Siddall has already raced two IM-distance races in New Zealand, I’d be surprised to see her on the start line, but watch out for her if she is! (Laura has withdrawn from racing IM South Africa.)

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