If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.
Previous Results
“CdA” is a relatively slow course, with a course rating of 3:46 it is only slightly faster than Kona. Last year’s winners were Craig Alexander in 8:19:48 and Julie Dibens in 9:16:40. To the best of my knowledge these are the course records in Coeur d’Alene, so it’s unrealistic to expect sub-8 or sub-9 times this year.
Male Participants
Victor Zyemtsev is the top ranked athlete on the start list:
Rank |
Name |
Nation |
Expected Time |
Rating |
Rank |
1 |
Victor Zyemtsev |
USA |
08:37:05 |
08:40:43 |
36 |
2 |
Timothy O’Donnell |
USA |
08:42:36 |
08:46:16 |
59 |
3 |
Chris Lieto |
USA |
08:47:20 |
08:51:02 |
91 |
4 |
Anton Blokhin |
UKR |
08:54:55 |
08:58:41 |
126 |
5 |
Kevin Taddonio |
USA |
08:55:22 |
08:59:08 |
128 |
6 |
Matthew Russell |
USA |
09:01:35 |
09:05:23 |
165 |
7 |
Joel Jameson |
GBR |
09:02:30 |
09:06:19 |
173 |
8 |
Ian Mikelson |
USA |
09:03:40 |
09:07:29 |
179 |
9 |
Guy Crawford |
AUS |
09:08:41 |
09:12:32 |
215 |
10 |
Bryan Rhodes |
NZL |
09:10:09 |
09:14:01 |
229 |
11 |
Brendan Halpin |
USA |
09:25:13 |
09:29:11 |
348 |
12 |
Chris Boudreaux |
|
09:30:22 |
09:34:23 |
385 |
13 |
Lewis Elliot |
USA |
09:30:52 |
09:34:53 |
388 |
14 |
Blake Becker |
USA |
09:52:27 |
09:56:37 |
534 |
15 |
Jim Lubinski |
USA |
10:14:15 |
10:18:34 |
671 |
16 |
Josh Hadway |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
He also has the best odds to won the race, but there are (at least) two Americans that will try to win on home soil:
- Victor Zyemtsev: 36%
- Chris Lieto: 25%
- Timothy O’Donnell: 19%
- Bryan Rhodes: 5%
- Matthew Russell: 5%
- Ian Mikelson: 3%
Victor is not racing often, but when he does, he’s usually very close to the front – he’s won CdA 2005 and 2007 and was second in 2008. It will be interesting to see how the two Americans Chris Lieto and Tim O’Donnell are going to race. For a while Chris was the biggest US hope for winning Kona, “TO” would probably love to take over that designation and race as well as his girlfriend Mirinda Carefrae does. After these three athletes, the winning chances go down quite quickly.
Female Participants
On the female side, the best rated athlete is Kathleen Calkins:
Rank |
Name |
Nation |
Expected Time |
Rating |
Rank |
1 |
Kathleen Calkins |
USA |
09:22:36 |
09:26:33 |
10 |
2 |
Heather Wurtele |
CAN |
09:25:41 |
09:29:40 |
15 |
3 |
Meredith Kessler |
USA |
09:32:27 |
09:36:28 |
27 |
4 |
Sara Gross |
CAN |
09:52:09 |
09:56:19 |
75 |
5 |
Heather Gollnick |
USA |
09:52:34 |
09:56:44 |
76 |
6 |
Kate Bevilaqua |
AUS |
09:53:15 |
09:57:25 |
80 |
7 |
Whitney Garcia |
|
09:57:27 |
10:01:39 |
89 |
8 |
Jackie Arendt |
USA |
10:00:52 |
10:05:05 |
100 |
9 |
Christie Sym |
AUS |
10:01:15 |
10:05:29 |
102 |
10 |
Haley Cooper |
USA |
10:11:19 |
10:15:37 |
144 |
11 |
Rachel Kiers |
CAN |
10:13:17 |
10:17:36 |
149 |
12 |
Amanda McKenzie |
USA |
11:03:02 |
11:07:42 |
254 |
13 |
Beth Shutt |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
14 |
Trish Deim |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
15 |
Stephanie Ossenbrink |
|
n/a |
unrated |
n/a |
She was a successful age group racer (even winning her age group in Kona) and has only recently switched to race as a Pro. She only has one pro result so far (a 9:12 in Arizona 2011), so the more experienced pros have better winning odds:
- Heather Wurtele: 46%
- Meredith Kessler: 27%
- Kathleen Calkins: 13%
- Kate Bevilaqua: 4%
- Heather Gollnick: 3%
- Sara Gross: 3%
Heather Wurtele has to be considered the statistical favorite and I’m sure she would like to win her fifth Ironman title (after CdA in 2008, St. George in 2010 and 2011, and Canada 2011). Then again, one shouldn’t underestimate Meredith Kessler: She’s had some issues last year (resulting in a few DNFs), but she’s coming off a recent win in the super-hard IM St. George.
As with the men, there does not seem to be much of a chance for someone outside the three main athletes to win the race.