2012

As usual, the race will be decided on the run. Therefore, I’ve done some extended analysis on the athlete’s run performance. It will be no surprise that the athletes with the best odds (Crowie and Rinnie) are also the best runners in the field. Here is a closer look at the data on athlete’s running strengths.

Run Rating

Looking at the individual run results, I’ve come up with some rating-like assessment of athlete’s run leg during an Ironman triathlon. The following tables list the main contenders and some other athletes that might be in a good position during the race.

I’m listing three different times:

• The average run time (across all courses)
• The average time for a Kona run (for all Kona races, empty if no Kona race so far)
• The Run PR (regardless of the course it was run)

Men

By all numbers, Crowie is the strongest runner in the field. It remains to be seen if Macca’s Olympic training has given him an extra edge – I’m sure that he believes he can beat Crowie on the run.

Name	Avg Run	Kona Run	Run PR
Craig Alexander	02:45:37	02:44:52	02:38:46
Paul Matthews	02:47:24		02:47:24
Andreas Raelert	02:47:47	02:47:46	02:40:52
Marino Vanhoenacker	02:51:59	02:56:17	02:39:24
Eneko Llanos	02:51:44	02:54:08	02:43:46
Sebastian Kienle	02:52:19		02:50:17
Timo Bracht	02:52:52	02:57:54	02:43:33
Dirk Bockel	02:53:57	02:54:16	02:51:56
David Dellow	02:54:38		02:45:05
Michael Raelert	02:54:40		02:54:40
Faris Al-Sultan	02:57:04	02:59:19	02:50:38
Jordan Rapp	02:57:17		02:46:55
Chris McCormack	02:50:02	02:47:21	02:42:02
Cameron Brown	02:52:09	02:58:40	02:41:17
Daniel Fontana	03:01:56	03:04:04	02:58:23
Andy Potts	02:57:08	02:59:17	02:52:15
Rasmus Henning	02:58:40	03:03:21	02:39:43
Joe Gambles	03:00:36	03:12:56	02:54:02
Pete Jacobs	02:57:02	02:50:08	02:41:06
Luke McKenzie	03:10:58	03:13:10	02:51:38

Women

On the women’s side, the numbers show that Rinnie is by far the best runner in the field. There are a few athletes that have a better potential than the average numbers indicate – Caroline Steffen, Bek Keat and Leanda Cave come to mind.

Name	Avg Run	Kona Run	Run PR
Mirinda Carfrae	02:56:25	02:54:11	02:52:09
Mary Beth Ellis	03:09:59	03:13:48	03:01:29
Caroline Steffen	03:19:49	03:10:32	03:01:22
Rachel Joyce	03:18:57	03:14:55	02:59:53
Sonja Tajsich	03:08:28	03:09:56	02:55:43
Amy Marsh	03:21:51	03:25:25	03:11:19
Rebekah Keat	03:11:54	03:18:22	02:55:28
Linsey Corbin	03:10:25	03:13:57	03:02:27
Leanda Cave	03:23:06	03:24:11	02:58:51
Kelly Williamson	03:08:59	03:07:18	03:03:33
Tine Deckers	03:21:13	03:27:52	03:02:31
Meredith Kessler	03:19:55	03:28:11	03:10:14
Anja Beranek	03:20:44		03:18:06
Michelle Vesterby	03:21:17		03:20:16
Amanda Stevens	03:29:50	03:32:47	03:23:41

Playing with Numbers: Standing before Run

If I take the predicted finish time (based on the ratings and the Kona course rating) and the run times (I’m using the lower of the average and Kona Run times), I can speculate on the standing before the run. Of course, this is just playing with the numbers and does not take real race dynamics into account, but I think some speculation is still interesting.

Men

In the last years it was Chris Lieto who was the front-runner coming off the bike. I’m sure that a lot of athletes would like to take that spot this year – but I don’t really see Marino as the one leading off the bike, even if that’s what the numbers say. The next spots show a pretty large group of athletes including Andreas Raelert, Jordan Rapp, Dirk Bockel, Faris Al-Sultan and Crowie. If Timo Bracht ends up in that group as well, he’ll have a great chance for a podium finish. Maybe the presence of Jordan Rapp will help him make that front group this year. I would also think that Sebastian Kienle will use his bike strength to bike into the front group, and he may even be the athlete off the front. Also, Chris McCormack will do his utmost to be in that front group, maybe even a few minutes ahead of Crowie. Maybe he can round up a few other athletes (as he did when winning in 2010) who help him trying to break Crowie …

#	Name	Before Run
1	Marino Vanhoenacker	05:26:33
2	Andreas Raelert	05:29:15
3	Paul Matthews	05:29:24
4	Jordan Rapp	05:29:58
5	Dirk Bockel	05:30:02
6	Faris Al-Sultan	05:30:04
7	Daniel Fontana	05:30:05
8	Craig Alexander	05:30:51
9	Timo Bracht	05:30:56
10	Sebastian Kienle	05:31:23
11	David Dellow	05:31:24
12	Eneko Llanos	05:31:28
13	Michael Raelert	05:32:22
14	Joe Gambles	05:33:38
	Rasmus Henning	05:34:31
	Luke McKenzie	05:35:17
	Andy Potts	05:35:20
	Cameron Brown	05:36:50
	Chris McCormack	05:41:11
	Pete Jacobs	05:50:44

Women

On the women’s side, my numbers predict Amy Marsh leading off the bike. The real story, however, will be how far back Rinnie is going to be (I have her 13 minutes behind and not even in the TOP10 after the bike) and how far ahead of her Caroline Steffen is going to be. If it’s really going to be 8 minutes, Rinnie has to come up with one of her best runs in order to win again in Kona. Also, one of the other girls should be able to come up with a run a bit better than her Run Rating – maybe Mary Beth (being a bit more rested this year), Rachel or Leanda. I think that the race will be decided after the Energy Lab – maybe we’ll have a female version of Mark Allen running down Thomas Hellriegel from 1995 (he was 13 minutes after the bike).

#	Name	Before Run
1	Amy Marsh	06:04:44
2	Mary Beth Ellis	06:06:16
3	Rachel Joyce	06:06:26
4	Leanda Cave	06:07:46
5	Caroline Steffen	06:09:33
6	Tine Deckers	06:14:05
7	Rebekah Keat	06:14:58
8	Michelle Vesterby	06:16:14
9	Anja Beranek	06:16:19
10	Meredith Kessler	06:16:49
11	Amanda Stevens	06:17:32
12	Mirinda Carfrae	06:17:50
	Sonja Tajsich	06:18:06
	Linsey Corbin	06:18:34
	Kelly Williamson	06:25:04

Run Comparison Charts

The following tables show the projected time after T2, the Run Rating and the total finishing time. In a row, a positive number means that the athlete has to be ahead of the other athlete, a negative number that he can afford to be behind.

Men

As the strongest runner in the field, Crowie can afford to give up more than two minutes to every athlete and still expect to win the race. (For example, he can be 8 minutes behind Timo Bracht after T2 and they would be even at the end of the race.)

This table also shows that if Macca or Pete Jacobs make it into T2 close to the front group, they have a good chance for a podium spot or even winning the race.

Women

Again, it is amazing to see how better Rinnie’s Run Rating is compared to the rest of the field. Based on the numbers, she can give up more than 15 minutes to everyone! As noted earlier, this number may be a bit misleading. The rest of the field is much closer together, and a lot will ride on who’s having a good day in the Kona heat.

My ratings are a course-independent number, so they don’t give a complete picture of how an athlete is going to do in Kona. By comparing the relative performances in Kona and on other courses, I can determine athletes who are racing well in Kona and those that struggle on Hawaii. I’m expressing this number – the “Kona Strength” – as the time difference between the expected result (based on the athlete’s rating before the race) and the actual result (finishing time adjusted for the course and conditions on race day). For example, Caroline Steffen has a Kona Strength of 24:29 – this means that here results in Kona have been more than 24 minutes faster than her rating predicted. A Kona Strength of 0 shows that an athlete is not racing faster or slower in Kona than their rating predicts, and a negative number (e.g. -31:18 by Meredith Kessler) shows that the athlete has struggled in Kona. I’ve added a number to show how many Kona results the Kona Strength is based on – one race may always be a fluke (so maybe the one result by Meredith Kessler was not caused by the Kona heat and she’s going to do much better this year).

Good Kona Results

Here is a list of athletes that have races well in Kona:

• Caroline Steffen 24:29 (2)
• Pete Jacobs 22:34 (4)
• Mirinda Carfrae 21:26 (3)
• Caitlin Snow 18:07 (4)
• Rachel Joyce 14:15 (3)
• Ronnie Schildknecht 10:09 (4)
• Craig Alexander 09:05 (5)

Inferior Kona Results

The following athletes have struggled in their Kona races:

• Meredith Kessler -31:18 (1)
• Jan Raphael -25:35 (3)
• Rebekah Keat -16:50 (2)
• Linsey Corbin -12:09 (5)
• Marino Vanhoenacker -09:34 (4)

New to Kona

There are also a few athletes that haven’t yet raced in Kona. Usually, these athletes should race a bit conservatively and build some experience in the Kona conditions:

• Jordan Rapp
• Trevor Wurtele
• David Dellow
• Sebastian Kienle
• Michael Raelert
• Greg Bennett
• Michelle Gailey
• Michelle Vesterby