Skip to content

September 2014

Ironman Wales 2014 (Sept 14th) – Predictions

Thanks to Steve Clark who sent me the Wales start list.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 09:04:21 Kristin Moeller (GER) 10:01:19
2012 Sylvain Rota (FRA) 08:52:43 Regula Rohrbach (SUI) 09:45:09
2013 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 09:09:10 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:51:21

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Scott Neyedli GBR 00:47:13 05:11:26 03:02:35 09:09:10
2 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:47:05 05:16:02 03:07:22 09:18:16
3 Michael Goehner GER 00:52:07 05:16:10 03:02:05 09:19:01

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:56:59 05:31:36 03:15:02 09:51:21
2 Regula Rohrbach SUI 00:56:01 05:36:54 03:35:44 10:18:00
3 Katja Konschak GER 00:51:09 06:02:30 03:12:39 10:24:05

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:52:43 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Harry Wiltshire 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Daniel Halksworth 2012-09-16
Bike overall 05:04:16 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Run overall 02:48:01 Jeremy Jurkiewicz 2011-09-11
Total female 09:45:09 Regula Rohrbach 2012-09-16
Swim female 00:47:55 Anja Beranek 2011-09-11
Bike female 05:31:36 Lucy Gossage 2013-09-08
Run female 03:02:28 Kristin Moeller 2011-09-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wales is – 11:39.

Race Adjustments for IM Wales

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 -19:41 04:20 -25:30 00:21 20 -19:41 04:20 -25:30 00:21
2012 02:13 04:44 -23:34 17:26 22 -08:44 04:32 -24:32 08:53
2013 -17:28 00:55 -28:37 -01:19 22 -11:39 03:20 -25:53 05:29

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wales has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Fraser Cartmell GBR 09:12:00 09:00:21 00:47:54 04:43:15 03:17:54 (100)
2 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:12:32 09:00:52 00:53:41 04:45:10 03:04:23 105
3 14 Matt Trautman ZAF 09:12:56 09:01:16 00:48:14 04:41:32 02:59:20 (110)
4 2 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:16:33 09:04:48 00:51:25 04:53:28 03:09:12 123
5 11 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:20:01 09:08:12 01:00:33 04:52:00 03:06:17 137
6 12 Oliver Simon GBR 09:46:06 09:33:44 00:48:39 04:55:39 03:33:48 232
7 15 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:46:49 09:34:26 00:55:57 04:51:59 03:13:18 (238)
8 5 James Brown GBR 09:52:20 09:39:50 01:01:30 05:02:04 03:14:57 262
9 3 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:53:32 09:41:00 00:59:43 05:35:27 03:24:43 (265)
10 6 Steve Clark GBR 10:03:57 09:51:12 00:57:57 05:02:25 03:22:03 (303)
11 17 Martin Cain GBR 10:28:57 10:15:41 00:59:11 05:17:20 03:37:13 382
12 7 Christian Funk GER 11:43:09 11:28:19 01:25:38 05:37:16 03:41:38 (454)
8 Rinus Holvoet BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
9 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Peru Alfaro ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Harry Springall GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Peter Wilby GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Tamsin Lewis was planning on racing in Wales, but has said on Twitter she can’t start. This leaves only a small women’s field:

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 24 Julia Bohn GER 10:36:59 10:23:32 01:01:02 05:30:38 03:36:17 (119)
2 22 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:38:31 10:25:02 01:14:22 05:26:24 03:21:45 121
3 23 Amy Forshaw GBR 11:01:21 10:47:24 01:03:45 05:40:27 03:35:21 146
4 25 Laura Bostock GBR 12:41:25 12:25:21 01:02:32 06:13:09 04:32:03 (162)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men’s race promises some close racing, and there is no obvious pre-race favorite:

  • Nick Baldwin: 34% (2-1)
  • Daniel Niederreiter: 20% (4-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 18% (4-1)
  • Mike Schifferle: 16% (5-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 9% (10-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Julia Bohn: 56% (1-1)
  • Katharina Grohmann: 31% (2-1)
  • Amy Forshaw: 8% (12-1)
  • Laura Bostock: 2% (47-1)

Challenge Almere 2014 (Sep 13th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Almere is the second-oldest Ironman-distance race. It has been a member of the challenge family since 2013.

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Bart Colpaert (BEL) 08:34:50 Susan Blatt (GER) 09:24:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bart Colpaert BEL 00:46:14 04:46:34 02:57:24 08:34:50
2 Georg Potrebitsch GER 00:49:20 04:49:23 03:00:12 08:43:19
3 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 00:53:07 04:42:55 03:05:03 08:45:48

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Susan Blatt GER 00:56:19 05:06:12 03:17:25 09:24:40
2 Irene Kinnegim NED 01:07:27 05:14:35 03:17:17 09:47:37
3 Kathrin Walther GER 00:56:44 05:23:27 03:40:01 10:07:44

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:34:50 Bart Colpaert 2013-09-14
Swim overall 00:46:10 Dylan McNeice 2013-09-14
Bike overall 04:42:55 Erik-Simon Strijk 2013-09-14
Run overall 02:57:24 Bart Colpaert 2013-09-14
Total female 09:24:40 Susan Blatt 2013-09-14
Swim female 00:51:37 Hillary Biscay 2013-09-14
Bike female 05:06:12 Susan Blatt 2013-09-14
Run female 03:17:17 Irene Kinnegim 2013-09-14

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Almere is 11:13.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Almere

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 11:13 00:18 01:44 03:49 16 11:13 00:18 01:44 03:49

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 4 Markus Fachbach GER 08:33:10 08:44:03 00:49:48 04:43:09 03:04:05 (46)
2 6 Gerrit Schellens BEL 08:34:51 08:45:46 00:53:25 04:57:39 02:46:36 (49)
3 8 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:39:57 08:50:59 00:52:14 04:58:05 02:54:39 (63)
4 2 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:47:33 08:58:44 00:49:19 04:54:11 03:13:06 93
5 5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:49:36 09:00:50 00:55:10 04:52:38 03:03:45 104
6 11 Sergio Marques POR 08:49:59 09:01:13 00:55:07 05:01:41 02:58:59 109
7 1 Bart Colpaert BEL 08:50:03 09:01:17 00:46:55 04:46:44 03:05:38 (110)
8 7 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:53:05 09:04:23 00:48:34 04:55:51 03:09:52 120
9 9 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:00:21 09:11:49 00:55:34 04:54:28 03:06:22 (153)
10 21 David Naesvik SWE 09:03:36 09:15:08 00:55:11 04:48:47 03:16:38 161
11 3 Dirk Wijnalda NED 09:04:52 09:16:25 00:57:00 05:00:07 03:06:33 171
12 10 Thomas Naasz NED 09:24:53 09:36:52 00:55:35 05:01:20 03:18:32 (248)
13 15 Thijs Koelen NED 09:29:15 09:41:19 00:51:50 04:54:33 03:26:33 (267)
14 19 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:51:16 10:03:48 00:51:04 05:10:48 03:45:08 351
15 18 Georgy Kaurov RUS 09:59:52 10:12:35 00:50:24 05:00:19 03:33:54 (376)
16 14 Diederik Scheltinga NED 11:29:29 11:44:06 00:51:44 05:23:30 04:52:03 (455)
12 Alexey Brylev RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Vladimir Savic SRB n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Bart Candel NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Valentin Zasypkin RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Jon Thorp NOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Aleksandr Kocetkov LTU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Margus Nomm EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Jan Jakubicek CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Petr Minarik CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 51 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 09:47:37 10:00:05 01:05:40 05:16:11 03:29:31 75
2 53 Kristin Lie NOR 10:04:14 10:17:03 01:12:06 05:18:06 03:29:02 103
3 52 Celia Kuch GER 10:12:28 10:25:27 01:03:20 05:25:28 03:38:10 123
4 59 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:27:52 10:41:11 01:10:18 05:31:08 03:30:48 (142)
5 56 Tineke Van den Berg NED 10:29:42 10:43:03 01:09:09 05:11:29 03:40:30 (142)
6 54 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:35:28 10:48:57 01:02:01 05:39:14 03:41:40 148
7 57 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:50:03 11:03:50 01:02:49 05:18:42 04:00:32 (157)
8 60 Zeljka Saban CRO 11:00:33 11:14:34 00:56:00 06:04:53 03:59:46 (159)
9 55 Corine Nelen NED 11:12:55 11:27:11 01:01:31 05:32:12 04:10:57 (160)
58 Victoria Gill GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
61 Anna Kusch GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Bart Colpaert is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition by last year’s second finisher Georg Potrebitsch and by Markus Fachbach who is my pre-race favorite:

  • Markus Fachbach: 33% (2-1)
  • Georg Potrebitsch: 23% (3-1)
  • Bart Colpaert: 14% (6-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 10% (9-1)
  • Gerrit Schellens: 10% (9-1)
  • Dejan Patrcevic: 6% (16-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 2% (58-1)

Female Race Participants

The women’s race appears to be a close call between Kristin Lie (solid racer who will probably have to chase after the swim) and veteran Heleen Bij De Vaate. Celia Kuch will be in the mix early on but will probably fall back on the bike and run:

  • Kristin Lie: 40% (1-1)
  • Heleen Bij De Vaate: 34% (2-1)
  • Celia Kuch: 22% (3-1)
  • Lina-Kristin Schink: 2% (55-1)

Ironman Wisconsin 2014 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

This year was probably the last Pro race in Wisconsin. It had the fastest conditions that I’ve seen here so far: an adjustment of 6:47 was way faster than the course rating of -3:36. It helped Daniel Bretscher to post a new course record, and female winner Britta Martin was only three minutes slower than Gina Crawford’s course record of 9:27.

Male Race Results

Konstantin Bachor was leading the race into T2, and was able to hold the lead until about the 16 mile mark. Then his wheels came off a little bit, and Daniel Bretscher managed to take the lead. He was able to win the race even if Brandon Marsh closed the gap to just a minute in the last section of the run. Pedro Gomes managed to take the third spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Daniel Bretscher USA 00:52:16 04:42:57 02:50:14 08:31:20 -23:20
2 Brandon Marsh USA 00:47:52 04:46:54 02:51:06 08:32:23 -14:54
3 Pedro Gomes POR 00:52:17 04:42:51 02:55:41 08:36:56 -16:02
4 Konstantin Bachor GER 00:52:16 04:31:14 03:08:27 08:38:42 -01:17
5 Matt Hanson USA 00:53:32 04:55:17 02:55:42 08:50:16 -00:09
6 Karol Dzalaj SVK 00:52:24 04:51:03 03:09:40 08:59:38 -10:20
7 Jared Milam USA 00:56:33 04:58:49 03:07:11 09:08:47 -12:29
8 Adam Bohach USA 00:59:09 05:08:37 03:03:28 09:18:11 00:06
9 Ryan Rau USA 00:59:50 05:10:18 03:03:11 09:18:59 -03:58
10 Nick Early USA 00:52:20 04:56:29 03:28:17 09:23:24 n/a
11 Blake Becker USA 00:52:27 05:10:43 03:42:57 09:52:33 27:31
12 Jared Woodford USA 00:52:27 05:13:44 03:45:02 09:58:31 -23:43
13 Paul Eicher USA 00:52:34 04:59:33 03:59:03 09:59:43 -03:16
14 Jeremy Howard USA 00:52:19 05:34:10 03:40:52 10:13:52 -00:51
15 Andres Castillo COL 00:47:54 05:14:59 04:05:48 10:15:29 1:10:07
16 Thomas Gerlach USA 00:56:30 04:47:29 04:27:38 10:17:36 1:21:23
17 Jason Smith USA 00:57:22 05:23:26 04:09:13 10:37:12 n/a

Female Race Results

On the women’s side, Britta Martin won the race by more than 10 minutes in front of Tamara Kozulina. Ashley Clifford ran herself into the third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected
1 Britta Martin NZL 00:59:13 05:15:26 03:08:40 09:30:08 -01:36
2 Tamara Kozulina UKR 01:04:13 05:15:52 03:14:15 09:41:16 02:47
3 Ashley Clifford USA 00:56:29 05:32:10 03:09:36 09:45:10 05:41
4 Ariane Monticeli BRA 01:04:11 05:30:17 03:04:11 09:49:40 -04:18
5 Jackie Arendt USA 00:56:28 05:30:23 03:29:30 10:03:58 15:39
6 Jessica Smith USA 00:57:12 05:28:10 03:57:02 10:29:41 18:59
7 Tami Ritchie USA 00:52:31 05:46:48 03:54:57 10:42:13 -01:19
8 Andrea Hutchins USA 01:11:25 05:53:43 03:34:19 10:49:36 n/a
9 Palmira Alvarez MEX 01:11:07 05:46:25 03:52:58 10:58:55 -18:25
  Kim Schwabenbauer USA 01:04:18 05:21:28   DNF  

Triathlete Kona Preview – Now available!

Triathlete October

Triathlete Magazine asked me to provide my input for the Kona Preview in their October issue which has just hit the newsstands.I really enjoyed writing about some of the contenders in the race and how different scenarios might play out.

You can download an electronic version of my Kona preview, and there is a lot more content in the magazine. I really enjoyed a discussion about Kona and preparing for the race by the top-notch coaches Siri Lindley, Dave Scott, and Matt Dixon.

I’ll expand on my thoughts in my upcoming Kona Rating Report (already available for pre-order).

Select your currency
EUR Euro
USD United States (US) dollar

By continuing to use the site, you agree to the use of cookies. more information

The cookie settings on this website are set to "allow cookies" to give you the best browsing experience possible. If you continue to use this website without changing your cookie settings or you click "Accept" below then you are consenting to this.

Close