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2014

Ironman Lake Tahoe 2014 (Sep 21st) – Predictions

Update Sept 11: Daniel Bretscher posted on Twitter that he won’t be racing in Tahoe after his win in Wisconsin.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:55:14 Asa Lundstroem (SWE) 09:58:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Chris McDonald AUS 00:54:54 04:55:42 02:59:40 08:55:14
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:51:47 04:55:55 03:03:33 08:57:53
3 Joe Gambles AUS 00:51:39 05:02:43 03:02:24 09:02:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:01:27 05:34:39 03:16:54 09:58:53
2 Jeanne Collonge FRA 01:01:18 05:33:21 03:16:01 09:59:43
3 Catriona Morrison GBR 01:00:02 05:44:27 03:10:57 10:03:38

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:55:14 Chris McDonald 2013-09-22
Swim overall 00:51:36 Romain Guillaume 2013-09-22
Bike overall 04:55:42 Chris McDonald 2013-09-22
Run overall 02:52:59 Kevin Taddonio 2013-09-22
Total female 09:58:53 Asa Lundstroem 2013-09-22
Swim female 00:55:12 Dede Griesbauer 2013-09-22
Bike female 05:33:21 Jeanne Collonge 2013-09-22
Run female 03:09:05 Elizabeth Lyles 2013-09-22

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lake Tahoe is – 13:47.

Race Adjustments for IM Lake Tahoe

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 -13:47 -02:31 -22:01 01:50 32 -13:47 -02:31 -22:01 01:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lake Tahoe has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Justin Daerr USA 08:59:25 08:46:00 00:53:32 04:45:32 03:00:22 49
2 5 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:08:06 08:54:28 00:51:02 04:46:26 03:01:00 75
3 12 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:10:20 08:56:38 00:53:58 04:53:18 02:59:24 84
4 3 Matthew Russell USA 09:10:34 08:56:52 00:59:59 04:46:27 02:59:34 85
5 16 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 09:10:55 08:57:12 00:52:22 04:41:32 03:03:57 87
6 4 Jason Shortis AUS 09:10:57 08:57:14 00:54:33 04:51:40 03:02:06 88
7 2 Trevor Wurtele CAN 09:11:12 08:57:29 00:53:31 04:46:15 03:09:07 90
8 19 Dylan McNeice NZL 09:12:36 08:58:51 00:44:58 04:50:14 03:06:30 95
9 9 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:18:48 09:04:54 00:54:20 04:45:36 03:14:21 123
10 17 Matt Lieto USA 09:22:23 09:08:23 00:51:35 04:48:06 03:17:18 139
11 13 Derek Garcia USA 09:29:56 09:15:45 00:53:21 04:47:21 03:16:32 163
12 11 Guy Crawford NZL 09:32:57 09:18:42 00:49:45 04:50:58 03:28:47 181
13 6 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:43:36 09:29:05 00:49:19 05:05:26 03:28:24 (214)
14 18 Douglas MacLean USA 09:47:01 09:32:25 00:58:18 05:04:04 03:09:43 223
15 15 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 09:48:52 09:34:13 00:55:41 05:02:09 03:19:55 232
16 20 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:31:50 10:16:07 00:51:44 05:16:35 03:49:50 378
17 14 Jeremy Howard USA 10:41:22 10:25:24 00:51:50 05:26:42 03:38:04 (402)
8 Brent McMahon CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Barrett Brandon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 29 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:48:56 09:34:17 00:57:42 05:18:53 03:07:23 20
2 26 Jessie Donavan USA 09:56:12 09:41:22 01:06:48 05:06:47 03:16:35 32
3 30 Kathleen Calkins USA 10:09:02 09:53:53 00:56:47 05:19:59 03:20:02 61
4 31 Katy Blakemore USA 10:12:43 09:57:28 00:52:22 05:28:32 03:17:49 66
5 28 Uli Bromme USA 10:14:55 09:59:37 01:02:44 05:19:31 03:27:41 71
6 35 Mackenzie Madison USA 10:18:57 10:03:33 00:59:47 05:20:22 03:22:04 80
7 32 Malaika Homo USA 10:20:00 10:04:34 00:53:04 05:22:42 03:34:52 (83)
8 27 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:32:50 10:17:05 00:57:49 05:31:19 03:40:20 101
9 30 Anne Basso FRA 10:37:39 10:21:47 00:57:28 05:31:08 03:38:08 107
10 36 Jessica Smith USA 10:41:32 10:25:34 00:54:50 05:26:50 03:45:22 121
11 37 Francesca Tibaldi ITA 10:50:23 10:34:12 unrated unrated unrated (132)
33 Sarah Jarvis USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Kara Lapoint USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men’s list is topped by Justin Daerr, recent winner at IM Boulder and Kona qualifier:

  • Justin Daerr: 39% (2-1)
  • Daniel Bretscher: 22% (4-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 10% (9-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 9% (11-1)
  • Trevor Wurtele: 7% (13-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 6% (17-1)
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 5% (18-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 2% (61-1)
An interesting participant will be Brent McMahon in his first Ironman – he has had great results at the 70.3 distance.

Female Race Participants

Similarly, we have two Kona athletes (Liz Lyles and Jessie Donavan) with the best winning chances – they confirmed that they will actually start in Tahoe:

  • Elizabeth Lyles: 50% (1-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 22% (3-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 9% (10-1)
  • Kathleen Calkins: 7% (14-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 6% (15-1)
  • Katy Blakemore: 3% (36-1)
  • Mackenzie Madison: 2% (62-1)

Challenge Weymouth 2014 (Sept 14) – Predictions

This is the first race on this course. (Weymouth replaces Henley as the location for the Challenge race in the UK.) Therefore there are no course records, ratings or expected times.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Stephen Bayliss GBR n/a 08:57:09 00:48:20 04:52:55 03:07:29 85
2 5 Joe Skipper GBR n/a 08:58:57 00:53:00 04:45:43 02:59:02 95
3 2 Joel Jameson GBR n/a 09:05:31 00:56:47 04:53:45 02:57:55 127
4 7 Keegan Williams NZL n/a 09:16:36 00:53:04 04:56:04 03:12:46 169
5 3 Egoitz Zalakain ESP n/a 09:19:40 00:55:38 04:58:41 03:10:19 (182)
6 6 Darren Jenkins AUS n/a 09:30:21 01:03:40 05:01:31 03:00:01 (218)
7 12 Chris Goodfellow GBR n/a 09:37:37 00:54:23 05:09:33 03:29:04 (246)
8 4 Craig Twigg GBR n/a 09:54:49 00:53:35 04:58:57 03:42:50 313
8 Philip Mosley GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
9 Karl Alexander n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Thomas Vickery n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
11 Magnus Magnoy n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 29 Michi Herlbauer AUT n/a 09:49:46 00:54:16 05:09:45 03:12:22 (50)
2 26 Charisa Wernick USA n/a 10:07:07 00:59:39 05:30:38 03:23:03 (87)
3 27 Joanna Carritt GBR n/a 10:23:10 01:02:36 05:30:35 03:36:00 112
4 31 Tamsyn Hayes NZL n/a 10:23:54 00:58:22 05:19:14 03:47:05 116
5 30 Gabriella Zelinka HUN n/a 10:31:14 00:58:41 05:28:23 03:27:36 (128)
6 28 Eleanor Haresign GBR n/a 10:48:09 00:59:53 05:31:43 03:37:56 (144)
32 Caroline Livesey n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Based on his previous results, Stephen Bayliss has to be the pre-race favorite, but Joe Skipper will be raring to go for a win after his break-through performance as second in IM UK:

  • Stephen Bayliss: 39% (2-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 25% (3-1)
  • Joel Jameson: 18% (5-1)
  • Keegan Williams: 14% (6-1)
  • Egoitz Zalakain: 3% (31-1)

Female Race Participants

We can expect an interesting race on the women’s side, the field is a great mixture of solid, established athletes (Jo, Tamsyn), athletes just getting started (Michi who has only one IM – but that was a sub-9h in Austria) and athletes coming back after a break (Charisa who hasn’t raced an IM for more than a year).

  • Charisa Wernick: 40% (1-1)
  • Tamsyn Hayes: 24% (3-1)
  • Michi Herlbauer: 18% (4-1)
  • Joanna Carritt: 11% (8-1)
  • Gabriella Zelinka: 4% (21-1)

Ironman Wales 2014 (Sept 14th) – Predictions

Thanks to Steve Clark who sent me the Wales start list.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Jeremy Jurkiewicz (FRA) 09:04:21 Kristin Moeller (GER) 10:01:19
2012 Sylvain Rota (FRA) 08:52:43 Regula Rohrbach (SUI) 09:45:09
2013 Scott Neyedli (GBR) 09:09:10 Lucy Gossage (GBR) 09:51:21

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Scott Neyedli GBR 00:47:13 05:11:26 03:02:35 09:09:10
2 Marek Jaskolka POL 00:47:05 05:16:02 03:07:22 09:18:16
3 Michael Goehner GER 00:52:07 05:16:10 03:02:05 09:19:01

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 00:56:59 05:31:36 03:15:02 09:51:21
2 Regula Rohrbach SUI 00:56:01 05:36:54 03:35:44 10:18:00
3 Katja Konschak GER 00:51:09 06:02:30 03:12:39 10:24:05

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:52:43 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Harry Wiltshire 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:44:07 Daniel Halksworth 2012-09-16
Bike overall 05:04:16 Sylvain Rota 2012-09-16
Run overall 02:48:01 Jeremy Jurkiewicz 2011-09-11
Total female 09:45:09 Regula Rohrbach 2012-09-16
Swim female 00:47:55 Anja Beranek 2011-09-11
Bike female 05:31:36 Lucy Gossage 2013-09-08
Run female 03:02:28 Kristin Moeller 2011-09-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Wales is – 11:39.

Race Adjustments for IM Wales

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 -19:41 04:20 -25:30 00:21 20 -19:41 04:20 -25:30 00:21
2012 02:13 04:44 -23:34 17:26 22 -08:44 04:32 -24:32 08:53
2013 -17:28 00:55 -28:37 -01:19 22 -11:39 03:20 -25:53 05:29

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Wales has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Fraser Cartmell GBR 09:12:00 09:00:21 00:47:54 04:43:15 03:17:54 (100)
2 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 09:12:32 09:00:52 00:53:41 04:45:10 03:04:23 105
3 14 Matt Trautman ZAF 09:12:56 09:01:16 00:48:14 04:41:32 02:59:20 (110)
4 2 Daniel Niederreiter AUT 09:16:33 09:04:48 00:51:25 04:53:28 03:09:12 123
5 11 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:20:01 09:08:12 01:00:33 04:52:00 03:06:17 137
6 12 Oliver Simon GBR 09:46:06 09:33:44 00:48:39 04:55:39 03:33:48 232
7 15 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:46:49 09:34:26 00:55:57 04:51:59 03:13:18 (238)
8 5 James Brown GBR 09:52:20 09:39:50 01:01:30 05:02:04 03:14:57 262
9 3 Paul Hawkins GBR 09:53:32 09:41:00 00:59:43 05:35:27 03:24:43 (265)
10 6 Steve Clark GBR 10:03:57 09:51:12 00:57:57 05:02:25 03:22:03 (303)
11 17 Martin Cain GBR 10:28:57 10:15:41 00:59:11 05:17:20 03:37:13 382
12 7 Christian Funk GER 11:43:09 11:28:19 01:25:38 05:37:16 03:41:38 (454)
8 Rinus Holvoet BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
9 Dominic Rohan-Gates GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Peru Alfaro ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Harry Springall GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Peter Wilby GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Tamsin Lewis was planning on racing in Wales, but has said on Twitter she can’t start. This leaves only a small women’s field:

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 24 Julia Bohn GER 10:36:59 10:23:32 01:01:02 05:30:38 03:36:17 (119)
2 22 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:38:31 10:25:02 01:14:22 05:26:24 03:21:45 121
3 23 Amy Forshaw GBR 11:01:21 10:47:24 01:03:45 05:40:27 03:35:21 146
4 25 Laura Bostock GBR 12:41:25 12:25:21 01:02:32 06:13:09 04:32:03 (162)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men’s race promises some close racing, and there is no obvious pre-race favorite:

  • Nick Baldwin: 34% (2-1)
  • Daniel Niederreiter: 20% (4-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 18% (4-1)
  • Mike Schifferle: 16% (5-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 9% (10-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Julia Bohn: 56% (1-1)
  • Katharina Grohmann: 31% (2-1)
  • Amy Forshaw: 8% (12-1)
  • Laura Bostock: 2% (47-1)

Challenge Almere 2014 (Sep 13th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Almere is the second-oldest Ironman-distance race. It has been a member of the challenge family since 2013.

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Bart Colpaert (BEL) 08:34:50 Susan Blatt (GER) 09:24:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bart Colpaert BEL 00:46:14 04:46:34 02:57:24 08:34:50
2 Georg Potrebitsch GER 00:49:20 04:49:23 03:00:12 08:43:19
3 Erik-Simon Strijk NED 00:53:07 04:42:55 03:05:03 08:45:48

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Susan Blatt GER 00:56:19 05:06:12 03:17:25 09:24:40
2 Irene Kinnegim NED 01:07:27 05:14:35 03:17:17 09:47:37
3 Kathrin Walther GER 00:56:44 05:23:27 03:40:01 10:07:44

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:34:50 Bart Colpaert 2013-09-14
Swim overall 00:46:10 Dylan McNeice 2013-09-14
Bike overall 04:42:55 Erik-Simon Strijk 2013-09-14
Run overall 02:57:24 Bart Colpaert 2013-09-14
Total female 09:24:40 Susan Blatt 2013-09-14
Swim female 00:51:37 Hillary Biscay 2013-09-14
Bike female 05:06:12 Susan Blatt 2013-09-14
Run female 03:17:17 Irene Kinnegim 2013-09-14

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Almere is 11:13.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Almere

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 11:13 00:18 01:44 03:49 16 11:13 00:18 01:44 03:49

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 4 Markus Fachbach GER 08:33:10 08:44:03 00:49:48 04:43:09 03:04:05 (46)
2 6 Gerrit Schellens BEL 08:34:51 08:45:46 00:53:25 04:57:39 02:46:36 (49)
3 8 Dejan Patrcevic CRO 08:39:57 08:50:59 00:52:14 04:58:05 02:54:39 (63)
4 2 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:47:33 08:58:44 00:49:19 04:54:11 03:13:06 93
5 5 Petr Vabrousek CZE 08:49:36 09:00:50 00:55:10 04:52:38 03:03:45 104
6 11 Sergio Marques POR 08:49:59 09:01:13 00:55:07 05:01:41 02:58:59 109
7 1 Bart Colpaert BEL 08:50:03 09:01:17 00:46:55 04:46:44 03:05:38 (110)
8 7 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:53:05 09:04:23 00:48:34 04:55:51 03:09:52 120
9 9 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 09:00:21 09:11:49 00:55:34 04:54:28 03:06:22 (153)
10 21 David Naesvik SWE 09:03:36 09:15:08 00:55:11 04:48:47 03:16:38 161
11 3 Dirk Wijnalda NED 09:04:52 09:16:25 00:57:00 05:00:07 03:06:33 171
12 10 Thomas Naasz NED 09:24:53 09:36:52 00:55:35 05:01:20 03:18:32 (248)
13 15 Thijs Koelen NED 09:29:15 09:41:19 00:51:50 04:54:33 03:26:33 (267)
14 19 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:51:16 10:03:48 00:51:04 05:10:48 03:45:08 351
15 18 Georgy Kaurov RUS 09:59:52 10:12:35 00:50:24 05:00:19 03:33:54 (376)
16 14 Diederik Scheltinga NED 11:29:29 11:44:06 00:51:44 05:23:30 04:52:03 (455)
12 Alexey Brylev RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Vladimir Savic SRB n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Bart Candel NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Valentin Zasypkin RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Jon Thorp NOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
22 Aleksandr Kocetkov LTU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
23 Margus Nomm EST n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Jan Jakubicek CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Petr Minarik CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 51 Heleen Bij De Vaate NED 09:47:37 10:00:05 01:05:40 05:16:11 03:29:31 75
2 53 Kristin Lie NOR 10:04:14 10:17:03 01:12:06 05:18:06 03:29:02 103
3 52 Celia Kuch GER 10:12:28 10:25:27 01:03:20 05:25:28 03:38:10 123
4 59 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 10:27:52 10:41:11 01:10:18 05:31:08 03:30:48 (142)
5 56 Tineke Van den Berg NED 10:29:42 10:43:03 01:09:09 05:11:29 03:40:30 (142)
6 54 Vanessa Pereira POR 10:35:28 10:48:57 01:02:01 05:39:14 03:41:40 148
7 57 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:50:03 11:03:50 01:02:49 05:18:42 04:00:32 (157)
8 60 Zeljka Saban CRO 11:00:33 11:14:34 00:56:00 06:04:53 03:59:46 (159)
9 55 Corine Nelen NED 11:12:55 11:27:11 01:01:31 05:32:12 04:10:57 (160)
58 Victoria Gill GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
61 Anna Kusch GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Bart Colpaert is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition by last year’s second finisher Georg Potrebitsch and by Markus Fachbach who is my pre-race favorite:

  • Markus Fachbach: 33% (2-1)
  • Georg Potrebitsch: 23% (3-1)
  • Bart Colpaert: 14% (6-1)
  • Sergio Marques: 10% (9-1)
  • Gerrit Schellens: 10% (9-1)
  • Dejan Patrcevic: 6% (16-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 2% (58-1)

Female Race Participants

The women’s race appears to be a close call between Kristin Lie (solid racer who will probably have to chase after the swim) and veteran Heleen Bij De Vaate. Celia Kuch will be in the mix early on but will probably fall back on the bike and run:

  • Kristin Lie: 40% (1-1)
  • Heleen Bij De Vaate: 34% (2-1)
  • Celia Kuch: 22% (3-1)
  • Lina-Kristin Schink: 2% (55-1)
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