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2015

Ironman Arizona 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual IM Arizona was very quick, especially on the bike: A bike adjustment of 20:25 was the main contributor to an overall adjustment of 22:52, the quickest in Arizona so far. Even with the great conditions, the two new bike course records by Andy Starykowicz (4:03:35) and Meredith Kessler (4:42:13) are great performances.

Conditions on the run were a bit different this year: With rain and cold temperatures there were not too many “explosions” but some athletes were shivering and having trouble keeping their temperature up. But the effect on times was quite low, at least for the Pro athletes as they only hit the rain once they were on the run. (Different than in Whistler this year when the rain hit the Pro field at the start of the bike and a lot of athletes struggled with hypothermia.)

Male Race Results

As expected Andy Starykowicz took the lead shortly after T1 and dominated the bike leg with a 4:03:35, improving on Jordan Rapp’s bike record by more than ten minutes. Andy now has the three fastest Ironman bike legs (4:02:17 Florida 13, 4:03 Arizona 15 and 4:04 Florida 12). He had an almost 13 minute lead into T2. He was running well for the first half of the marathon, but Lionel Sanders was eating into his lead. When Andy struggled around mile 17 and had to walk for a bit, Lionel took the lead and won the race with a sub-8 finish time. Brent McMahon had the best marathon of the day and finished in second place, securing his Kona slot for next October. TJ Tollakson took the last spot on the podium, he also managed to overtake Andy shortly before the finish. Jordan Rapp wasn’t fresh enough after Kona a few weeks ago and took fifth place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Lionel Sanders CAN 00:54:04 04:13:38 02:47:07 07:58:22 -17:05 US$ 20000
2 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:08 04:23:32 02:46:25 08:00:57 06:39 US$ 10000
3 TJ Tollakson USA 00:49:14 04:16:23 02:54:45 08:04:17 -13:23 US$ 6500
4 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:49:12 04:03:35 03:09:04 08:05:56 -10:10 US$ 4000
5 Jordan Rapp USA 00:52:34 04:15:49 02:55:28 08:08:05 00:42 US$ 3000
6 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:49:17 04:18:25 03:01:15 08:12:55 -05:06 US$ 2000
7 Kevin Collington USA 00:49:14 04:29:32 02:53:51 08:16:25 n/a US$ 1500
8 David Plese SLO 00:53:28 04:25:50 02:53:21 08:17:06 -01:27 US$ 1250
9 Jonathan Shearon USA 00:53:49 04:21:12 03:01:16 08:20:55 -08:18 US$ 1000
10 David Naesvik SWE 00:54:22 04:26:09 03:04:28 08:29:04 -07:30 US$ 750
11 Marko Albert EST 00:47:06 04:24:38 03:14:43 08:29:46 15:31  
12 Bryan McCrystal IRL 01:02:54 04:16:34 03:07:14 08:30:50 -20:15  
13 Matic Modic SLO 00:55:54 04:27:45 03:05:43 08:33:54 -04:31  
14 Miguel Fidalgo Rossell ESP 00:49:16 04:29:52 03:16:33 08:39:37 19:41  
15 Dirk Wijnalda NED 00:59:14 04:31:59 03:05:38 08:40:38 06:26  
16 James Chesson USA 00:57:24 04:37:16 03:06:08 08:45:27 -04:13  
17 Jesse Vondracek USA 00:55:48 04:35:58 03:09:59 08:45:54 -16:43  
18 Jozsef Major HUN 00:57:43 04:32:09 03:13:09 08:47:57 16:48  
19 Colin Laughery USA 01:00:27 04:37:56 03:08:16 08:52:33 03:05  
20 Dylan Gleeson CAN 00:53:53 04:43:47 03:11:05 08:52:50 -19:55  
21 Mike Schifferle SUI 01:02:45 04:33:02 03:11:08 08:53:59 14:57  
22 Douglas MacLean USA 00:57:30 04:48:40 03:06:58 08:58:39 01:38  
23 Jordan Bryden CAN 00:49:26 04:51:22 03:16:38 09:02:10 -19:29  
24 Patrick Bless GER 00:56:25 04:56:27 03:04:36 09:03:01 01:13  
25 Brent Mcburney USA 00:57:24 04:48:35 03:14:41 09:04:57 -1:07:05  
26 Derek Lantz CAN 01:00:29 04:57:00 03:04:17 09:06:41 n/a  
27 Gilian Oriet SUI 00:56:20 04:48:52 03:20:07 09:10:33 -28:20  
28 Elmar Heger GER 00:54:18 04:43:53 03:39:38 09:22:31 -16:08  
29 Anthony Toth CAN 00:57:40 04:46:25 03:34:19 09:24:38 25:03  
30 Nathan Dressel USA 01:00:16 05:06:00 03:36:42 09:48:24 n/a  
31 Mario Radevic GER 01:08:35 04:52:16 03:49:39 09:55:28 04:49  
32 Joe Umphenour USA 00:49:05 04:42:54 05:35:50 11:12:42 1:47:26  
33 Arland Macasieb PHI 01:09:54 06:12:30 04:08:50 12:14:52 1:22:28  
  Matthew Russell USA 00:56:37 04:21:18   DNF  
  Raymond Botelho USA 00:55:51 04:23:50   DNF  
  Thomas Gerlach USA 00:53:36 04:26:45   DNF  
  Drew Scott USA 00:49:07 04:34:24   DNF  
  Christopher Bagg USA 00:53:52 04:32:28   DNF  
  Lewis Elliot USA 00:54:16 04:39:23   DNF  
  Andrew Fast USA 00:59:26 04:44:57   DNF  
  Karl Bordine USA 01:03:00 04:46:08   DNF  
  Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 01:04:23 05:09:15   DNF  
  Daniel Herlbauer AUT 00:53:48     DNF  
  Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 00:54:15     DNF  
  Robert Duncan USA 01:01:20     DNF  
  James Lubinski USA 01:07:47     DNF  

Female Race Results

The female race was dominated by three athletes who wanted to end the year on a high note after not so good races in Kona: Meredith Kessler finished but was the last female Pro finisher – in Tempe we saw a different Meredith defend her title from last year. She posted the best swim and bike legs (and a new bike course record), leading by more than ten minutes in T2. She then went on to have a solid second best marathon and won with a new personal best Ironman time of 8:44:00. Second place went to Amanda Stevens who made after an uncharacteristic slow swim had a good bike leg and was the only one running faster than Meredith. Amanda’s 8:52:31 is also an Ironman PR for her and the first time she was able to finish under 9 hours. Julia Gajer had a good swim and bike but then had to work on the run for her third place finish. Darby Roberts had a great tun to finish fourth, and Michelle Vesterby was too tired after Kona to finish better than fifth but is now also safe for Kona 2016.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:48:25 04:42:13 03:08:58 08:44:00 -14:51 US$ 20000
2 Amanda Stevens USA 00:51:07 04:50:10 03:06:39 08:52:31 -18:50 US$ 10000
3 Julia Gajer GER 00:51:05 04:52:06 03:15:06 09:03:15 10:58 US$ 6500
4 Darbi Roberts USA 00:51:41 04:56:59 03:12:00 09:05:10 -15:28 US$ 4000
5 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:52:52 04:54:34 03:19:45 09:11:31 13:33 US$ 3000
6 Mackenzie Madison USA 00:56:22 04:54:43 03:16:23 09:13:13 -08:51 US$ 2000
7 Melanie McQuaid CAN 00:56:12 04:51:28 03:22:40 09:14:14 06:10 US$ 1500
8 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 00:54:50 05:06:09 03:09:43 09:14:59 06:18 US$ 1250
9 Christina Jackson USA 00:51:11 04:57:21 03:22:26 09:15:32 -18:57 US$ 1000
10 Camilla Lindholm SWE 01:07:12 04:53:56 03:20:33 09:26:12 05:57 US$ 750
11 Christine Fletcher CAN 00:57:46 04:59:41 03:32:19 09:35:54 -12:08  
12 Caroline Martineau CAN 01:01:05 05:09:36 03:19:32 09:37:18 -46:06  
13 Neilia Bliss USA 01:00:55 05:10:33 03:28:10 09:45:37 -12:51  
14 Sarah Graves USA 01:09:40 05:07:13 03:29:50 09:53:46 09:11  
15 Richele Frank CAN 01:11:02 05:07:07 03:33:07 10:01:23 -13:53  
16 Rahel Bellinga NED 01:02:48 05:00:16 03:53:54 10:03:25 -05:24  
17 Kathryn King GBR 01:05:07 05:18:08 03:41:05 10:10:26 -20:26  
18 Hayley Benson USA 01:00:44 05:27:53 03:41:11 10:17:04 n/a  
19 Cori Burnett USA 00:57:37 05:28:50 03:50:39 10:27:40 -17:54  
20 Katy Cargiulo USA 01:01:56 05:39:16 03:40:45 10:29:09 01:29  
21 Kara Lapoint USA 01:06:41 05:43:38 03:56:45 10:57:55 n/a  
22 Lauren Thompson USA 01:02:28 05:28:58 04:20:47 11:00:53 n/a  
23 Ali Black USA 01:07:18 05:17:42 05:11:52 11:43:17 1:28:16  
  Amber Ferreira USA 00:57:41 05:03:06   DNF  
  Sarah Jarvis USA 00:57:38 05:10:16   DNF  
  Laurel Wassner USA 00:55:42 05:15:04   DNF  
  Carrie Mccoy USA 01:21:33 05:46:24   DNF  
  Sarah Haskins USA 00:48:29     DNF  
  Lisa Roberts USA 01:02:48     DNF  

Ironman Malaysia 2015 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

As usual, IM Malaysia was hot and humid, leading to slow runs and a number of explosions and DNFs. The swim and bike weren’t fast either, but most of the “slowness” comes from the run (-10:44). Compared to the other years in Malaysia, it was one of the slowest, but very comparable to last year. The overall course rating (including Pro races from 2006 onward) is now -7:41 with the run even slower (-9:59).

A good thing was to see the increase of the increased number of Pros starting and finishing: Last year there were 21 finishers (from 27 starters), this year there were 42 finishers (from 55 Pro starters).

Male Race Results

Bike leader Romain Guillaume was one of those suffering on the run: His ten minute gap in T2 only lasted 15k into the run when Mike Aigroz, Frederik Croneborg and Harry Wiltshire took the lead. (Romain ended up in 20th place after placing 19th in Kona – he’ll need some more points to qualify!) Mike won the final sprint with 10 seconds over Fredrik, Harry took the last spot on the podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Mike Aigroz SUI 00:49:17 04:49:25 03:08:46 08:52:02 -12:07 US$ 8000
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:50:24 04:48:18 03:09:02 08:52:12 -09:17 US$ 4000
3 Harry Wiltshire GBR 00:49:13 04:49:31 03:11:55 08:55:01 -19:54 US$ 3000
4 Alberto Casadei ITA 00:49:17 04:55:05 03:11:31 09:00:49 -01:55 US$ 2500
5 Tohara Kaito JPN 00:54:10 04:53:55 03:08:36 09:01:19 -41:34 US$ 1500
6 Mauro Baertsch SUI 00:55:50 04:45:40 03:19:14 09:06:24 -06:31 US$ 1000
7 Christian Brader GER 00:59:37 04:50:14 03:13:36 09:08:52 -03:48
8 Chris Legh AUS 00:54:06 04:48:01 03:27:33 09:14:20 -16:04
9 Daniil Sapunov UKR 00:50:03 04:59:38 03:19:25 09:15:24 n/a
10 Thiago Vinhal BRA 00:51:12 05:09:16 03:09:36 09:18:23 -00:04
11 Freddy Lampret ZAF 00:54:08 04:50:41 03:30:00 09:19:26 -56:13
12 Steven Osborne GBR 00:56:49 05:14:17 03:05:42 09:22:54 -23:56
13 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 00:56:09 04:41:56 03:42:56 09:26:33 27:50
14 Cedric Lassonde FRA 00:56:27 04:51:25 03:40:36 09:34:33 13:23
15 Carl Read NZL 00:56:04 05:15:22 03:19:38 09:42:22 27:13
16 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 00:51:56 05:28:24 03:26:50 09:58:02 11:07
17 Guy Crawford NZL 00:53:42 04:55:06 04:08:44 10:03:22 38:20
18 Peter Seidel GER 00:56:09 04:55:42 04:42:23 10:39:45 1:05:23
19 Michael Louys BEL 01:03:08 05:00:35 04:31:10 10:41:48 54:02
20 Romain Guillaume FRA 00:49:14 04:39:14 05:08:38 10:41:49 1:37:06
21 Brad Williams USA 00:57:42 05:03:46 04:36:49 10:44:46 1:12:41
22 Vincent Depuiset FRA 01:12:53 05:20:18 04:04:31 10:45:08 35:34
23 Yvan Jarrige FRA 00:49:23 06:32:16 03:35:29 11:05:42 n/a
24 Petr Vabrousek CZE 01:00:20 05:37:07 04:56:21 11:44:28 1:20:29
25 Marek Nemcik SVK 01:14:23 07:23:26 05:04:05 13:58:09 1:36:18
26 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:14:23 06:57:45 05:48:47 14:10:42 1:49:16
Balazs Csoke HUN 00:49:10 04:51:17 DNF
Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 00:50:46 05:05:25 DNF
Yu Shinozaki JPN 00:57:44 07:01:21 DNF
Paul Ambrose AUS 00:49:20 DNF
Markus Mlinar AUT 00:59:31 DNF
Young Hwan Oh KOR 01:04:38 DNF

Female Race Results

Defending champion Diana Riesler took control of the race early on the bike and never looked back, winning by more than 12 minutes. Second place went to Gurutze Frades who made up a lot of ground with a race best 3:15 run – a new run record! Ironman legend Natascha Badmann who had a solid day to finish in third place.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:34 05:02:38 03:29:37 09:37:06 -09:54 US$ 8000
2 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 01:03:55 05:25:04 03:15:02 09:49:09 -28:40 US$ 4000
3 Natascha Badmann SUI 01:03:56 05:14:13 03:30:21 09:54:07 00:56 US$ 3000
4 Sarah Crowley AUS 00:58:37 05:08:05 03:46:02 09:58:26 -06:18 US$ 2500
5 Saleta Castro ESP 00:56:24 05:25:42 03:32:43 10:00:23 -30:39 US$ 1500
6 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 00:57:28 05:23:49 03:40:47 10:08:01 -13:03 US$ 1000
7 Lucie Reed CZE 00:54:40 05:43:58 03:32:07 10:17:25 10:10
8 Katharina Grohmann GER 01:11:59 05:29:23 03:31:03 10:17:25 -04:00
9 Jessica Fleming AUS 01:01:54 05:24:55 03:47:28 10:19:50 13:30
10 Angela Kuehnlein GER 01:03:55 05:44:56 03:39:27 10:33:39 -19:20
11 Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:56:51 05:39:35 03:56:16 10:37:59 21:28
12 Michelle Duffield AUS 01:03:54 05:35:17 04:04:06 10:49:36 17:46
13 Mami Ishii JPN 01:03:41 05:48:51 04:00:55 10:58:53 -1:01:44
14 Tineke Van den Berg NED 01:07:16 05:31:41 04:07:56 10:59:35 47:35
15 Emma Graaf SWE 01:01:30 05:48:41 04:33:35 11:34:28 58:41
16 Bree Wee USA 00:57:54 06:00:53 05:09:50 12:13:48 1:06:11
Jeanne Collonge FRA 01:00:28 05:27:48 DNF
Caroline Livesey GBR 01:00:24 05:31:16 DNF
Anna Halasz HUN 01:12:40 05:22:20 DNF
Maki Nishiuchi JPN 00:57:06 05:39:27 DNF
Carole Fuchs THA 01:13:08 05:31:15 DNF
Jocelyn Mccauley USA 00:58:42 06:18:11 DNF
Kathrin Walther GER 01:00:18 DNF

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Ironman Malaysia 2015 (Nov 14th) – Predictions

IMMalaysiaLogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Jason Shortis (AUS) 08:36:33 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 10:08:13
2007 Xavier Le Floch (FRA) 08:43:52 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:42:33
2008 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:34:42 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:29:21
2009 Luke McKenzie (AUS) 08:26:48 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:21:10
2010 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:22:31 Belinda Granger (AUS) 09:23:33
2014 Patrik Nilsson (SWE) 08:41:53 Diana Riesler (GER) 09:26:38

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Patrik Nilsson SWE 00:49:49 04:40:31 03:05:37 08:41:53
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 00:53:34 04:49:56 03:10:00 08:58:45
3 Karol Dzalaj SVK 00:56:05 04:47:03 03:26:21 09:15:00

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Diana Riesler GER 00:59:11 04:58:44 03:23:11 09:26:38
2 Keiko Tanaka JPN 00:56:51 05:28:43 03:29:23 10:00:13
3 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 01:04:11 05:25:17 03:26:33 10:02:03

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:10:35 Bryan Rhodes 2002-01-27
Swim overall 00:46:19 Dylan McNeice 2014-09-27
Bike overall 04:21:01 Marino Vanhoenacker 2010-02-27
Run overall 02:56:27 Jason Shortis 2006-02-26
Total female 09:21:10 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Swim female 00:50:45 Nina Kraft 2007-02-28
Bike female 04:48:08 Belinda Granger 2009-02-28
Run female 03:17:36 Nicole Leder 2007-02-28

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Malaysia is – 19:30.

Race Adjustments for IM Malaysia

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2014 -19:30 -02:07 -01:26 -12:09 19 -19:30 -02:07 -01:26 -12:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Malaysia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 20 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:58:00 08:44:46 00:56:16 04:43:40 03:13:04 66
2 1 Romain Guillaume FRA 08:58:59 08:42:30 00:50:41 04:42:16 03:21:02 59
3 15 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:59:32 08:54:10 00:49:33 04:53:01 03:11:58 106
4 28 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 09:00:44 08:47:32 00:53:42 04:52:27 03:09:35 79
5 2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE 09:02:11 08:43:23 00:54:09 04:53:15 03:09:46 60
6 11 Mike Aigroz SUI 09:04:52 08:46:15 00:50:58 04:49:14 03:19:40 72
7 5 Paul Ambrose AUS 09:05:34 08:49:42 00:52:22 04:46:30 03:21:42 85
8 13 Mauro Baertsch SUI 09:09:18 08:58:50 00:55:52 04:54:40 03:13:46 125
9 12 Christian Brader GER 09:14:30 08:54:12 00:59:27 04:56:58 03:13:05 107
10 29 Carl Read NZL 09:15:07 09:01:25 00:54:40 05:01:55 03:13:32 136
11 7 Harry Wiltshire GBR 09:17:22 09:07:17 00:50:12 04:55:56 03:26:15 161
12 18 Todd Israel AUS 09:17:31 09:02:48 00:53:33 04:59:11 03:19:48 143
13 10 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:19:03 08:59:38 00:50:18 04:55:00 03:28:45 130
14 9 Elliot Holtham CAN 09:23:04 09:13:19 00:55:47 04:58:59 03:23:18 190
15 37 Thiago Vinhal BRA 09:23:06 09:10:19 00:51:36 05:15:15 03:11:14 179
16 34 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:23:51 09:00:19 00:58:47 04:59:20 03:20:44 131
17 8 Cedric Lassonde FRA 09:24:56 09:05:36 00:58:20 04:57:12 03:24:23 158
18 14 Guy Crawford NZL 09:25:23 09:09:40 00:51:03 04:48:26 03:40:54 174
19 31 Peter Seidel GER 09:28:53 09:23:33 00:56:31 04:48:35 03:38:47 (236)
20 4 Chris Legh AUS 09:33:03 09:11:47 00:58:25 04:59:55 03:29:43 (186)
21 27 Steven Osborne GBR 09:34:34 09:33:50 00:59:08 05:17:03 03:13:22 277
22 36 Brad Williams USA 09:35:09 09:26:16 00:59:33 05:02:22 03:28:14 (243)
23 6 Tohara Kaito JPN 09:35:50 09:26:05 00:56:44 05:17:16 03:16:50 242
24 32 Yu Shinozaki JPN 09:48:04 09:58:58 00:58:18 04:56:08 03:48:37 363
25 22 Michael Louys BEL 09:48:11 09:31:46 01:04:44 05:05:22 03:33:06 265
26 21 Freddy Lampret ZAF 09:49:01 10:03:07 00:55:20 05:18:09 03:30:31 (373)
27 35 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL 09:49:35 09:31:17 00:59:56 05:07:35 03:37:03 263
28 3 Markus Mlinar AUT 09:50:33 09:50:10 00:58:13 05:07:59 03:39:21 (334)
29 24 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:52:46 09:29:10 00:51:28 05:26:04 03:30:13 (250)
30 16 Vincent Depuiset FRA 10:10:13 09:53:24 01:11:59 05:17:07 03:36:07 348
31 26 Gilian Oriet SUI 10:29:44 10:32:28 01:01:55 05:09:40 04:13:09 (457)
32 25 Young Hwan Oh KOR 11:08:39 10:58:20 01:05:30 05:28:41 04:29:29 (474)
33 33 Josef Svoboda CZE 12:05:59 11:59:40 01:15:28 06:06:17 04:39:13 481
34 23 Marek Nemcik SVK 12:09:45 12:01:04 01:15:24 05:52:43 04:56:39 482
17 Frederic Garcia FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Yvan Jarrige FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Daniil Sapunov UKR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Diana Riesler GER 09:38:43 09:38:25 00:59:51 05:03:49 03:30:03 41
2 52 Haley Chura USA 09:54:00 09:43:05 00:51:20 05:22:15 03:35:25 50
3 47 Kristin Moeller GER 09:55:58 09:33:36 01:06:36 05:26:34 03:17:47 31
4 42 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:57:59 09:38:56 01:04:34 05:10:00 03:38:25 43
5 65 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:59:08 09:36:55 01:00:17 05:21:15 03:32:36 38
6 43 Bree Wee USA 10:04:33 09:42:51 00:56:55 05:23:48 03:38:50 48
7 51 Jeanne Collonge FRA 10:09:04 10:01:57 01:00:32 05:20:33 03:42:59 92
8 44 Keiko Tanaka JPN 10:10:11 10:18:24 00:57:34 05:31:51 03:35:47 132
9 66 Tineke Van den Berg NED 10:11:07 09:55:37 01:08:14 05:17:05 03:40:48 80
10 50 Karen Thibodeau CAN 10:11:45 09:53:01 00:56:35 05:32:01 03:38:09 76
11 54 Jessica Fleming AUS 10:11:53 09:51:33 01:03:34 05:18:02 03:45:18 73
12 46 Sarah Crowley AUS 10:11:54 10:02:27 01:01:00 05:29:02 03:36:52 (94)
13 56 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 10:16:53 10:03:59 01:05:02 05:36:04 03:30:47 97
14 67 Kathrin Walther GER 10:17:40 10:10:08 01:03:09 05:20:49 03:48:42 111
15 62 Caroline Livesey GBR 10:19:08 09:58:38 01:03:53 05:27:43 03:42:32 85
16 49 Monique Grossrieder SUI 10:22:26 10:07:33 01:07:32 05:31:51 03:38:02 (108)
17 45 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:22:27 10:00:13 00:58:35 05:29:26 03:49:27 89
18 57 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:24:14 10:06:50 01:14:26 05:29:20 03:35:28 106
19 59 Anna Halasz HUN 10:25:05 10:17:33 01:10:42 05:24:00 03:45:23 (129)
20 63 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 10:26:20 10:10:33 01:02:09 05:34:12 03:44:58 (112)
21 48 Saleta Castro ESP 10:29:57 10:16:10 00:59:02 05:35:49 03:50:06 127
22 53 Michelle Duffield AUS 10:30:29 10:15:21 01:04:14 05:36:40 03:44:35 125
23 58 Emma Graaf SWE 10:36:53 10:18:29 01:02:34 05:34:10 03:55:10 133
24 64 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:39:21 10:23:56 00:57:02 05:35:20 04:01:59 151
25 61 Angela Kuehnlein GER 11:00:29 10:50:15 01:06:20 05:42:25 04:06:44 (176)
26 60 Mami Ishii JPN 13:11:33 12:59:19 01:04:55 06:05:28 05:56:10 (181)
55 Carole Fuchs THA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The race is pretty open on the male side: Krill Kotshegarov, Alberto Casadei, Frederik Croneborg and Romain Guillaume have very similar chances, and there a number of other athletes that aren’t expected to be too far off:

  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 25% (3-1)
  • Alberto Casadei: 18% (5-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 16% (5-1)
  • Romain Guillaume: 14% (6-1)
  • Paul Ambrose: 9% (11-1)
  • Jens Petersen-Bach: 8% (11-1)
  • Mike Aigroz: 4% (23-1)
  • Mauro Baertsch: 3% (35-1)
  • Carl Read: 2% (47-1)

Female Race Participants

Last year’s winner Diana Riesler is the clear favorite for this year as well – provided she has recovered from her DNF in Kona. Haley Chura is still struggling with the injuries she suffered when hit by a car, she was a DNF in Kona and unlikely isn’t able to start in Malaysia. Then there are a number of athletes looking for KPR points in order to qualify for Kona 2016: Kristin Möller and Bree Wee almost qualified in 2015, and Natascha Badmann took some time to recover from her injuries but has already returned to racing with a podium in Vichy.

  • Diana Riesler: 59% (1-1)
  • Haley Chura: 13% (7-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 8% (11-1)
  • Natascha Badmann: 7% (13-1)
  • Rebecca Preston: 7% (14-1)
  • Jeanne Collonge: 3% (31-1)
  • Bree Wee: 2% (59-1)

Ironman Arizona 2015 (Nov 15th) – Predictions

IMAZLogoUpdate November 11th: The following athletes have been deleted the latest start list from Ironman:

  • Peter Kotland
  • Heather Jackson, Dede Griesgrauer, Danielle Mack

Pedro Gomes has announced on Twitter and his blog that he won’t start.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:25:42 Kate Major (AUS) 09:44:02
2006 Michael Lovato (USA) 08:20:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:12:53
2007 Rutger Beke (BEL) 08:21:14 Heather Gollnick (USA) 09:36:40
2008 Jozsef Major (HUN) 08:34:19 Erika Csomor (HUN) 09:14:49
2008 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:14:16 Heleen Bij De Vaate (NED) 09:21:06
2009 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:13:35 Samantha McGlone (CAN) 09:09:19
2010 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:07:16 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:36:13
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:38 Leanda Cave (GBR) 08:49:00
2012 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:03:13 Linsey Corbin (USA) 09:01:41
2013 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 08:02:00 Julia Gajer (GER) 08:52:49
2014 Brent McMahon (CAN) 07:55:48 Meredith Kessler (USA) 08:50:41

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Brent McMahon CAN 00:47:25 04:21:24 02:43:29 07:55:48
2 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 00:48:05 04:20:44 02:47:30 08:00:42
3 Jordan Rapp USA 00:51:13 04:14:03 02:54:08 08:03:14

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:50:22 04:48:06 03:07:56 08:50:41
2 Lisa Huetthaler AUT 00:59:05 04:50:17 03:05:48 08:58:46
3 Heather Jackson USA 00:58:57 04:47:07 03:18:51 09:08:57

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:55:48 Brent McMahon 2014-11-16
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:14:03 Jordan Rapp 2014-11-16
Run overall 02:43:29 Brent McMahon 2014-11-16
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:42:57 Michelle Vesterby 2013-11-17
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Arizona is 11:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 05:53 -00:36 04:34 -00:24 29 05:53 -00:36 04:34 -00:24
2007 02:55 -00:35 01:13 01:35 26 04:24 -00:36 02:53 00:36
2008 04:58 00:04 04:21 -00:50 38 04:35 -00:22 03:22 00:07
2008 10:53 01:10 09:07 01:59 51 06:10 00:01 04:49 00:35
2009 17:44 -01:00 12:12 02:35 37 08:28 -00:12 06:17 00:59
2010 13:23 -00:23 09:06 01:47 46 09:18 -00:13 06:45 01:07
2011 15:03 -00:56 15:27 02:14 55 10:07 -00:20 08:00 01:17
2012 14:16 -01:58 16:28 02:33 50 10:38 -00:32 09:04 01:26
2013 22:15 -00:21 19:57 03:47 58 11:56 -00:31 10:16 01:42
2014 08:52 -01:09 08:37 02:33 40 11:37 -00:35 10:06 01:47

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Arizona is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Brent McMahon CAN 08:01:10 08:13:51 00:47:17 04:20:50 02:48:03 2
2 2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:10:21 08:27:40 00:51:34 04:18:20 02:55:27 15
3 3 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:19:33 08:38:30 00:50:41 04:18:44 03:05:07 42
4 31 Marc Duelsen GER 08:20:44 08:45:39 00:53:13 04:25:56 02:56:35 71
5 4 TJ Tollakson USA 08:21:18 08:37:50 00:49:15 04:24:57 03:02:07 39
6 9 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:25:10 08:39:54 00:48:13 04:17:42 03:14:15 47
7 13 Pedro Gomes POR 08:26:28 08:41:25 00:51:02 04:34:28 02:55:58 56
8 11 Lionel Sanders CAN 08:26:36 08:35:29 00:56:42 04:28:08 02:56:46 32
9 7 Marko Albert EST 08:27:48 08:35:42 00:47:32 04:34:52 03:00:24 33
10 54 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:27:53 09:00:42 00:53:01 04:28:33 03:01:20 134
11 8 David Plese SLO 08:30:29 08:39:16 00:53:10 04:35:31 02:56:48 46
12 5 Matthew Russell USA 08:33:28 08:50:06 00:58:29 04:32:40 02:57:19 86
13 35 Miguel Fidalgo Rossell ESP 08:35:39 08:57:30 00:49:04 04:47:12 02:54:23 (118)
14 36 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:36:44 08:55:43 00:53:57 04:30:58 03:06:50 114
15 14 Sergio Marques POR 08:37:51 08:54:42 00:55:05 04:44:37 02:53:09 112
16 22 Christian Brader GER 08:39:48 08:54:12 00:57:05 04:40:41 02:57:02 107
17 6 Jozsef Major HUN 08:39:49 08:53:17 00:57:32 04:30:53 03:06:25 101
18 60 Dirk Wijnalda NED 08:41:50 09:01:28 00:57:46 04:42:11 02:56:53 137
19 41 Matic Modic SLO 08:42:02 09:04:49 00:55:00 04:39:54 03:02:08 155
20 56 Joe Umphenour USA 08:42:29 08:58:11 00:47:43 04:39:23 03:10:24 120
21 15 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:44:14 09:01:06 01:00:15 04:37:12 03:01:47 135
22 43 David Naesvik SWE 08:47:27 09:03:12 00:55:56 04:36:07 03:10:24 146
23 39 Daniel Herlbauer AUT 08:48:41 09:11:57 00:54:01 04:40:57 03:08:43 (186)
24 16 Christopher Bagg USA 08:49:12 09:20:27 00:54:06 04:40:47 03:09:18 222
25 18 Marcel Bischof GER 08:55:06 09:17:08 00:57:05 04:45:08 03:07:53 208
26 26 James Chesson USA 08:58:19 09:17:25 00:58:09 04:47:57 03:07:13 210
27 17 Blake Becker USA 08:58:37 09:40:02 00:53:09 04:45:56 03:14:32 300
28 21 Raymond Botelho USA 09:00:09 09:29:29 00:54:11 04:35:58 03:24:59 253
29 58 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:00:41 09:30:04 00:54:39 04:53:42 03:07:21 256
30 33 Lewis Elliot USA 09:03:49 09:37:27 00:54:13 04:40:44 03:23:52 (289)
31 49 Felipe De Oliveira Manente BRA 09:03:50 09:21:06 00:53:43 04:54:57 03:10:10 225
32 45 Colin Laughery USA 09:05:16 09:28:27 00:59:04 04:50:35 03:10:37 (249)
33 51 Bryan McCrystal IRL 09:06:56 09:23:20 01:04:13 04:34:30 03:23:14 (234)
34 46 James Lubinski USA 09:07:13 09:31:08 01:02:37 04:50:22 03:09:15 262
35 48 Douglas MacLean USA 09:07:48 09:25:21 00:58:18 04:55:34 03:08:56 240
36 55 Michael Starkey USA 09:08:55 09:27:10 00:59:52 04:51:26 03:12:38 244
37 19 Patrick Bless GER 09:15:59 09:29:44 00:58:00 04:59:19 03:13:40 254
38 24 Jordan Bryden CAN 09:16:26 09:50:12 00:49:55 05:01:46 03:19:46 334
39 27 Emanuele Ciotti ITA 09:21:09 09:41:55 00:52:46 04:57:37 03:25:46 (305)
40 37 Dylan Gleeson CAN 09:28:55 09:53:07 00:56:26 04:41:07 03:46:21 (347)
41 61 Dantley Young USA 09:33:54 10:04:30 01:06:25 05:04:25 03:18:04 379
42 42 Peter Kotland CZE 09:37:19 09:57:03 00:59:27 04:58:01 03:34:51 357
43 38 Elmar Heger GER 09:41:16 10:14:31 00:57:42 04:55:01 03:43:33 409
44 53 Mario Radevic GER 09:53:35 10:27:54 01:03:08 05:02:24 03:43:03 (452)
45 52 Gilian Oriet SUI 09:54:42 10:32:28 00:59:51 04:55:42 03:54:10 (457)
46 47 Arland Macasieb PHI 09:58:23 10:33:30 01:05:08 05:11:39 03:36:36 (461)
47 20 Karl Bordine USA 10:07:41 10:33:32 00:59:22 04:39:51 04:23:28 (461)
48 28 Reinaldo De Oliveira BRA 10:09:56 10:34:26 01:02:38 05:14:24 03:47:55 (461)
49 34 Andrew Fast USA 10:10:42 10:31:43 00:58:41 05:05:45 04:01:16 (456)
50 23 Patrice Brisindi CAN 10:12:15 10:38:17 00:57:34 05:16:06 03:53:36 (464)
51 50 Brent Mcburney USA 10:27:32 10:54:13 01:00:32 05:03:52 04:18:08 (474)
52 59 Jason Watson USA 10:43:28 11:15:41 00:59:27 05:21:58 04:17:03 479
53 85 Terry Casey USA 10:44:20 11:11:44 00:59:03 05:23:42 04:16:36 (478)
54 10 Drew Scott USA 11:04:19 11:32:34 00:49:49 04:34:33 05:34:57 (481)
12 Kevin Collington USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Nicholas Chase USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
29 Ivan Dominguez USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Nathan Dressel USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Robert Duncan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Tyler Jordan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
44 Derek Lantz CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
57 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Exp. Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 70 Meredith Kessler USA 08:58:15 09:25:43 00:49:56 04:51:30 03:11:50 19
2 71 Julia Gajer GER 09:03:33 09:20:48 00:53:41 04:59:47 03:05:05 14
3 72 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:04:49 09:21:08 00:52:03 04:53:59 03:13:47 15
4 73 Heather Jackson USA 09:07:38 09:23:29 00:58:51 04:52:27 03:11:20 16
5 75 Amanda Stevens USA 09:15:13 09:39:10 00:50:56 05:00:18 03:18:58 44
6 77 Lisa Roberts USA 09:16:09 09:31:47 01:04:22 05:03:20 03:03:27 27
7 100 Danielle Mack USA 09:19:01 09:45:08 01:02:51 04:59:53 03:11:17 53
8 99 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:24:27 09:49:46 01:07:44 04:59:09 03:12:34 66
9 74 Melanie McQuaid CAN 09:24:31 09:48:32 00:58:53 04:59:36 03:21:02 (62)
10 101 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:25:48 09:56:47 00:59:16 05:03:22 03:18:10 82
11 87 Amber Ferreira USA 09:30:38 09:49:34 00:56:13 05:08:08 03:21:17 64
12 76 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:33:19 09:50:28 00:53:26 05:04:16 03:30:37 70
13 108 Laurel Wassner USA 09:36:00 09:50:24 00:54:41 05:19:20 03:16:59 69
14 105 Darbi Roberts USA 09:36:19 10:06:51 00:53:30 05:04:33 03:33:17 (107)
15 93 Christina Jackson USA 09:41:28 10:03:20 00:52:26 05:05:50 03:38:11 95
16 86 Anna Cleaver NZL 09:43:26 10:13:31 00:53:01 05:13:55 03:31:30 (119)
17 95 Jessica Meyers USA 09:46:50 10:04:22 01:00:14 05:15:17 03:26:19 98
18 88 Christine Fletcher CAN 09:54:27 10:12:22 00:58:56 05:15:49 03:34:42 116
19 90 Sarah Graves USA 09:57:30 10:15:05 01:13:00 05:17:34 03:21:57 124
20 104 Tami Ritchie USA 10:01:36 10:31:44 00:53:28 05:33:35 03:29:32 166
21 94 Sarah Jarvis USA 10:06:48 10:30:22 01:00:30 05:14:48 03:46:30 (165)
22 82 Neilia Bliss USA 10:15:38 10:41:50 01:02:44 05:28:54 03:39:00 (172)
23 102 Caroline Martineau CAN 10:18:27 11:01:25 01:05:38 05:17:47 03:50:01 (178)
24 79 Rahel Bellinga NED 10:24:35 10:40:26 01:03:34 05:09:05 04:06:56 (170)
25 97 Leslie Lamacchia USA 10:31:40 10:57:18 01:08:39 05:30:55 03:47:06 (177)
26 89 Richele Frank CAN 10:32:53 10:59:48 01:12:18 05:21:07 03:54:29 (177)
27 81 Ali Black USA 10:36:19 10:57:27 01:03:43 05:25:49 04:01:47 (177)
28 78 Jennifer Lentzke CAN 10:38:20 11:02:34 01:13:54 05:32:32 03:46:53 (178)
29 84 Katy Cargiulo USA 10:46:20 11:13:49 01:00:38 06:01:46 03:38:56 (180)
30 96 Kathryn King GBR 10:47:49 11:15:22 01:10:52 05:47:19 03:44:38 (180)
31 83 Cori Burnett USA 11:03:54 11:32:08 00:57:40 05:54:28 04:06:46 (180)
80 Hayley Benson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
91 Sarah Haskins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
98 Kara Lapoint USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
103 Carrie Mccoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
106 Frankie Sanjana GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
107 Lauren Thompson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
109 Kelsey Withrow USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Defending Champion Brent McMahon is the favorite for this year as well. His strongest competition comes from last year’s third place Jordan Rapp. Brent and Jordan have both raced Kona five weeks before Arizona. There are a number of strong swim/bike athletes (Maik Twelsiek who had the fastest bike split in Kona, TJ Tollakson or Andrew Starykowicz who has the fastest Ironman and 70.3 bike times) and it will be interesting to see who will still be able to have a decent run after what I expect to be a very fast and hard bike leg.

  • Brent McMahon: 37% (2-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 27% (3-1)
  • Maik Twelsiek: 12% (7-1)
  • TJ Tollakson: 6% (16-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 6% (17-1)
  • Marc Duelsen: 4% (26-1)
  • Jonathan Shearon: 2% (56-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 2% (59-1)

Drew Scott is seeded last in my predictions, but that is a result of his 5:28 marathon from IM France. His swim and bike should be good enough to see him close to the front for a good part of the race – hopefully he’ll be able to have a better run this time!

Female Race Participants

The female race has a very interesting mix of athletes who had a good race in Kona and want to do one more decent race with the fitness they have built up (e.g. 4th Michelle Vesterby or 5th Heather Jackson), athletes that didn’t have a good race in Hawaii (e.g. defending Arizona Champion Meredith Kessler who walked most of the Kona marathon and Julia Gajer or Amanda Stevens who DNF’d), and athletes that want to get started on 2016 qualifying (such as Lisa Roberts, Danielle Mack, Camilla Lindholm or Melanie McQuaid). There is an outside chance for Heather Jackson, but I expect the race to be decided between the 2013 podium when Julia won in front of Meredith and Michelle.

  • Meredith Kessler: 37% (2-1)
  • Julia Gajer: 29% (2-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 21% (4-1)
  • Heather Jackson: 8% (11-1)
  • Danielle Mack: 2% (61-1)

An interesting addition to the field is Sarah Haskins who is coming into her first Ironman race with three 70.3 wins.

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