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2015

Introducing Susie Cheetham

There are a few female Pro athletes that already have enough points to be able to book their flight in early May for the Ironman World Championships in October. Most of them are big names such as Mirinda Carfrae, Jodie Swallow, Caroline Steffen or Meredith Kessler. In addition there is one name that only a few people will know: Susie Cheetham. In his 2013 article about Susie on Tri247.com, John Levison calls her “perhaps be the best British long course athlete you’ve not heard of. Yet.” Not that much has changed until this season: With 5.650 points from 70.3 World Championships, 70.3 South Africa and two third places at IM Barcelona and IM South Africa, she is well above last year’s qualifying threshold of 4.800 points while still flying under the radar. I wanted to learn a bit more about Susie, her background and her plans for this year.

Getting Started with Triathlon

Growing up in England, Susie was a runner: “I started running when I was thirteen. Running doesn’t take that long to train for; I trained once a week until I was about fifteen, at fifteen I started training twice a week. And then at sixteen I think I fancied one of the guys at the track so I ran a little more. I really improved, I won the English national’s schools in the 3000 meters on the track and was second in the 1500. I got selected for British juniors for the world championship. Three or four weeks before I was supposed to go I had a stress fracture in my sacrum – at 17 it is quite a wake-up call to have a stress fracture at the bottom of your spine.”
Similar to a lot of runners that increase their mileage when growing up, she was injured a lot. “I had calf injuries quite a lot and I think the final stroke was my Achilles. I had far too many injuries and spent half my time aqua jogging or feeling sorry for myself that I couldn’t be training or racing.” Even with her injuries, she was part of the British U23 team that won the gold medal in the 2007 European Cross Country Championships and posted a 10k PR of 33:55 at the 2009 BUPA Great Ireland Run. “I could have carried on, but I was having problems with my Achilles and also started working full time as a Brand Manager at Volac, a dairy nutrition company which supplies whey protein to the sports nutrition market. So it came quite naturally that I put it on the back burner for a bit. I was still running and started cycling a bit, partly for cross training and partly to spend time with my (now) husband Rob who was training for an Ironman.  I couldn’t believe the amount of training he was doing.  I was competing internationally and he was ‘giving Ironman a go’, yet he was training double the hours I was. I still think the amount that we train is ridiculous, but I love it.”
Fellow Pro and friend Lucy Gossage still remembers riding with Susie in 2010 when Lucy was training for her 9:53 at Ironman Germany as an age grouper: “I first met Susie when I was becoming a good age grouper and she was an amazing runner doing a bit of riding – I remember on our first ride together being a bit put out that she could stay with the group quite easily, even on the hills! I think it’s indisputable that she has a huge amount of natural talent but she also has an incredible drive, determination and I think far more self belief than me.”
In 2011, Susie was ready to tackle her first serious race: “In mid 2011, I figured I had done enough ‘cross training’ to give a Half Ironman a go and did fairly well.  I did Antwerp 70.3 in July, loved it and won my age group. Although it’s not a comparable race I would have come 6th pro.”

Transitioning to Pro

After her great result in Antwerp, Susie immediately took her Pro card. “There is no age group system in running, so you either run as a fun runner or you’re serious, and I wanted to be serious about it. I didn’t realize you could be serious about it and not be a pro. Also in running, even in elite, prize money is not a given, missing out on it meant I raced my next race (70.3 South Africa, 2012) as a pro. In hindsight, if I had understood the age group system I may have stuck at it a bit longer as I developed as a triathlete.”
One area where she felt she had to improve was her swim – her swim time in Antwerp 70.3 was 30:23, more than five minutes behind the leaders. “I had no background in swimming. I grew up on the coast so I always swam, but I never swam in a lane until 2011. Going into Antwerp, I used to swim a kilometer and a half just to make sure I could do the swim. I didn’t do any reps, I just swam to make sure I could do 1900 meters. After Antwerp I realized I wanted to take this more seriously. I’m quite fortunate, my husband is a very good swimming teacher; he’s done amazingly with me. He broke everything down; he probably has four or five things that he looks at. He effectively just simplified it for me, just basic things such as not crossing over my arms, not dropping my elbow, and he has been working on those ever since. I’m still working on my swim and continue to make big improvements, but it hasn’t shown in any of my long races yet, which is really frustrating.”
Lucy thinks a lot of Susie’s development has to do with Rob: “They come as a pair and you can’t talk about Suse without crediting Rob too. He’s her other half in every sense of the word.”
Even after turning Pro, Susie continued to work as a Brand Manager and helped to launch Upbeat, a fresh whey protein drink that is available in all the major UK supermarkets. “The next three years I worked full time and competed as a Pro – those years were tough! I was regularly training at 5am and 9pm so I can definitely relate to any age groupers that take the sport seriously with a full time job.” She still managed to place on a few podiums and won her first Professional race, 70.3 Aix en Provence in 2013.

2014 Season

2014 saw some big changes for her: “I’ve been with Rob for the last eleven years, we got married in April and I went part time at work.” She now splits her time between Cambridge where she works and Oxford where her husband works. “We have a house in Cambridge that we own; actually I rent one of the rooms to Lucy [Gossage]. We don’t train together that much; when I’m in Cambridge I’m working, so she’s training during the day – but we’ve been on a lot of training camps together.” Here is Lucy’s view: “Susie and I have become very good friends, though our training together always seems to be thwarted by one of us getting ill and injured.”
Working part time allowed Susie to step up her training, winning the 70.3 Norway.

SusieHaugesund
Susie breaking the winner’s tape in Haugesund.

In September 2014 she also participated in the 70.3 World Championship in Mont Tremblant, Canada, and finished a respectable twelfth place in the Pro category.
By that time, she had already registered for her first full-distance Ironman race, Ironman Barcelona in October. “I had decided at the beginning of the year I might try an Ironman, but definitely at the end of the year. I’m not going to lie, anyone close to me will know I was terrified about my first Ironman.” Then why did she do it? “I remember when I got into running I was terrified of going down to the track and running club. I was 13 and it’s such a big life lesson for me: Do the things you are uncomfortable with and actually you’ll benefit in the long run.”
Even with a full Ironman on the calendar, her 2014 season was focused on 70.3s. “I did the Ironman off the back of a season of 70.3s racing and training just to see what it was all about and see if I had any potential at the distance.  After the 70.3 World Champs I had about two weeks of training to get some miles under my belt. I remember a horrible ride in Canada after Mount Tremblant; it was horrible weather and I wanted to do 180 kilometers. It was cold, I didn’t have the proper kit and my husband was following in the car. I was beginning to question whether I wanted to do an Ironman, but it wasn’t too bad in the end.”
Even though she had never run a marathon, she felt a lot more confident about her run capabilities. “One of my favourite sessions are some longer runs.  Every couple of weeks I try to do a longer run at a progressive pace, first hour is fairly steady and the second hour is building the pace up to 70.3 pace. I just love running; that certainly wasn’t a struggle.”

First Ironman: Barcelona 2014

In October, Susie finished her first Ironman in Barcelona. “I didn’t have many expectations except double the distance must mean double the pain. I knew I was fit but I also knew I probably hadn’t done the volume I would have liked to. Going into the race with no preconceptions meant there wasn’t too much that surprised me. Tamsin Lewis did her first Ironman just before me and she said that it’s not as bad as people say; it’s all in the last hour, maybe two hours that it hurts. What I found really mentally taxing was that the bike course is three laps; so the first lap was fine, the second lap was mainly fine, but by the time the third lap came, it was just really mentally taxing to be going past athletes at the back of the field. They are not the worst because you can just pass them, but when you start passing male age groupers, they have got big egos, it’s quite stressful because then they overtake you again after you’ve overtaken them. You even get that with some of the pro men as well; there was one pro man that came absolutely pelting on the first lap of the bike, and then on the second lap of the bike I thought I was catching one of the girls but it was him; and as soon as I overtook him he overtook me and then he put the power down. Funnily enough he died on the run. I got really frustrated and I was quite upset with all the drafting after the race. Thankfully I surprised myself in the sense that it didn’t hurt as much as I thought. I suppose if anything, the whole race flew by and I hadn’t expected that.” She finished in third place with a quick time of 9:03, one of the fastest debuts by a British woman.

SusiePodium
Susie on the podium in Barcelona, soaking winner Eva Wutti.

Next Ironman: SouthAfrica 2015

Going into IM Barcelona, Susie hadn’t given qualifying for Kona much thought. “I knew a decent result combined with my points from Mt. Tremblant would put me in a good position to qualify for Kona. But at the same time I had never done an Ironman and it seemed like a very long day ahead of me.  I wasn’t even sure if I would want to do another Ironman again, let alone Kona!” After her great result in Barcelona, she decided to tackle Kona qualifying in earnest. “My Barcelona build up and race was very much experimental and a bonus.  For Ironman South Africa I was committed to the goal of qualifying for Kona. Do well in South Africa and the pressure is off, don’t do so well and I’d have to think up a new plan to qualify under pressure!”
How did she go into the race compared to Barcelona? “My approach to IM South Africa couldn’t have been further from my approach to Barcelona. I had South Africa 70.3 (in January 2015) and Ironman South Africa (in late March) on my race calendar from November 2014 so I was able to focus on it and build up to it as a priority race.  My sessions were tailored to Ironman from February after the 70.3 in January. This time if I didn’t do well there were no excuses of lack of prep!”
“As a Regional Championship race the build up for South Africa was slightly different as the field was so much stronger.  Both Eva Wutti and Camila Pedersen who had beaten me in Barcelona were racing in addition to about another eight or so who I felt on a good day could contend for a top ten at Kona. As nobody expected me to be on the podium my build up was probably easier than the other girls as I didn’t have many commitments the days before the race. I knew my training had been going well, but I wasn’t sure exactly how that would play out on race day.”
She was able to deliver another great performance at IM South Africa – all day she was racing very smart.

SusieFalco
Susie on her cool Falco beam bike.

She came off the bike in sixth place and then had a great run. “When I heard that Lucy [Gossage] was in second, I was in fourth at the time, and I thought ‚Lucy can’t get on the podium and not me.‘ And then I was running and she saw that I was gaining on her and then she ran harder. I think we both ran each other onto the podium.” With the fastest run of the day (3:03, almost six minutes faster than her marathon in Barcelona) she was able to run herself onto the podium with a time of 9:33, in a stronger field and on a much slower course than in Barcelona. With 2.890 KPR points for her third place, she was able to increase her total score to 5.650 points – in safe territory for a Kona slot.

Working towards Kona

Susie won’t be racing another Ironman before Kona. “I don’t know how some athletes do so many Ironmans.  They’re brutal and although I’ve loved them it’s taken me some time to recover.  I will focus on shorter races through the summer. At the moment I will definitely do 70.3 Staffordshire (June 14) and hope to defend my title at 70.3 Norway (July 5). I plan to race the 70.3 Championships (Aug 30) assuming it fits with where I am for Kona prep.  It’s in Austria so I’d love to do it. Then I’m going to Kona two weeks before; I’ve just booked my flights.”
“I’m not sure at the moment how to prepare for Kona (Oct 10). In terms of training I will most likely follow a similar plan as the run up to South Africa building in some learning points from the build up and race.  The UK’s climate isn’t exactly well known for its heat and humidity so I will definitely be taking some time to train somewhere hot and humid.”
What expectations does she have for Kona? “I’ve always raced well in the heat and I think the course suits me, but predicting my end result is too difficult. What everyone tells me is it takes a long time to learn to race well in Kona. Think Chris McCormack and all these amazing people that have done incredibly well at Kona, it took them a good few years to really get it right.”
A lot of people also say that the race is much more mentally taxing as there is a big strong field that will be close together for most of the day. “I remember at Mount Tremblant, I came out in quite a big group after the swim, it makes it really hard to find a space where you are comfortable and you are not surging to get past ten girls. It will be interesting to see how that affects the race dynamics.”
Any plans for 2016? “Ask me at the end of October. I don’t really know at the moment. For this year, my goal was to qualify to go to Kona and see how I get on.”

Looking Forward

What will Susie be able to do in Kona? As always with Kona, it’s almost impossible to tell. She is aware of this herself: “From what I hear about Kona it’s such an unpredictable race even for athletes that have already raced Kona.” She has a few things going in her favor: She has raced well in the heat, and her run strength will be an important asset to do well in Kona. Tri247’s John Levison agrees: “She is not a front pack swimmer, so that will perhaps be magnified a little in Kona, but she is solid and not ‘weak’ – so will likely have some good company with her. Kona is always a lottery – but if I look at 2014 and see [slower swim] splits for [front finishers] Julia Gajer (6th), Liz Lyles (7th), Corinne Abraham (11th, and not really a good day for her), then a Top10 doesn’t seem impossible if she can be strong across the board. Her South Africa run (faster than Lucy) was very impressive, and suggests she’s got increased strength, fitness and confidence since Barcelona.” Lucy is also quite optimistic for Susie’s potential in Kona: “Susie’s very very strong on the flat on the bike and now she’s cracked her run I definitely think she’s got a chance of a top 10 in Kona this year. In the future who knows – I think it depends how much her run can improve. Definitely top 5 one day if she doesn’t get injured. I’ll be watching from the oncology clinic when she does!”
I’m a bit more cautious about Susie’s chances in Kona 2015. Her slower swim will probably leave her a few minutes behind: Based on her swim times so far (58:43 in Barcelona and 57:52 in South Africa) I expect her to swim at slightly over one hour in the slower Kona conditions. She’ll loose some more time on the bike, and even with a 5:15 (she rode a 5:25:54 in South Africa) she’ll be outside of the Top20 into T2. Having only raced in the smaller and less competitive fields in Barcelona and South Africa, this will be a new situation for her, and it’s impossible to tell how she’ll be able to deal with it. If she runs at the level she has shown, she’ll run under 3:10 and should finish around twentieth place with a total time of 9:30. In Kona a few minutes can make a big difference, so with a few more improvements in the remaining five months to Kona and maybe a good day in October, she could finish between tenth and fifteenth place. Anything beyond that is probably not realistic for her first Kona appearance.

A big thank you to Susie for taking the time to answer my questions through email and Skype. All photos have been provided by her.

Ironman Texas 2015 (May 16th) – Predictions

Let us know your top picks for IM Texas at IM Predictions!

IMTexasUpdate: Unfortunately, Linsey Corbin had to withdraw a second time within a few days before a Regional Championship. Other DNS are Trevor Delsaut and Danielle Mack.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Bevan Docherty NZL 00:47:55 04:26:59 02:49:17 08:09:37
2 Matthew Russell USA 00:55:18 04:21:28 02:52:44 08:14:53
3 Justin Daerr USA 00:52:09 04:28:24 02:52:16 08:17:29

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Kelly Williamson USA 00:51:49 05:03:51 02:54:46 08:54:42
2 Julia Gajer GER 00:52:36 04:53:43 03:09:34 09:00:51
3 Amber Ferreira USA 00:52:58 05:02:16 03:11:24 09:11:48

In 2012, Haley Chura swam a 50:22 when she was still an agegrouper.

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:08:20 Eneko Llanos 2011-05-21
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:18:17 Mathias Hecht 2012-05-19
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:51:49 Kelly Williamson 2014-05-17
Bike female 04:42:29 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:58, mainly because of a fast bike leg.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 11:49 -02:46 16:30 -01:41 38 11:49 -02:46 16:30 -01:41
2012 12:31 -01:24 13:44 02:53 23 12:10 -02:05 15:07 00:36
2013 06:58 -01:46 14:28 02:24 24 10:26 -01:59 14:54 01:12
2014 16:33 00:33 15:59 03:53 36 11:58 -01:21 15:10 01:52

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$. As a Regional Championship, the Pro winners receive an automatic Kona slot.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Jordan Rapp USA 08:12:26 08:26:02 00:53:08 04:17:01 02:57:18 11
2 6 Andreas Raelert GER 08:14:14 08:26:06 00:50:18 04:25:13 02:53:42 12
3 2 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:16:09 08:33:53 00:49:19 04:23:00 02:58:49 (30)
4 4 Ben Hoffman USA 08:18:33 08:31:06 00:50:39 04:26:44 02:56:10 21
5 8 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:18:53 08:26:54 00:53:00 04:25:44 02:55:08 14
6 3 Justin Daerr USA 08:23:25 08:43:24 00:54:11 04:28:54 02:55:20 56
7 9 Victor Del Corral ESP 08:25:07 08:34:21 00:56:51 04:31:26 02:51:50 32
8 22 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 08:26:58 08:34:31 00:49:08 04:37:41 02:55:09 34
9 5 Chris McDonald AUS 08:28:29 08:49:52 00:54:17 04:28:09 03:01:02 84
10 24 David Plese SLO 08:28:35 08:38:56 00:54:41 04:30:34 02:58:19 45
11 11 Pedro Gomes POR 08:29:53 08:53:39 00:51:39 04:30:25 03:02:49 101
12 19 Matt Hanson USA 08:31:28 08:48:04 00:55:53 04:42:25 02:48:10 77
13 7 Matthew Russell USA 08:31:58 08:50:50 00:59:26 04:29:10 02:58:22 88
14 27 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:33:44 08:54:33 00:54:36 04:29:22 03:04:46 108
15 28 Joe Skipper GBR 08:34:39 08:47:31 00:55:38 04:37:39 02:56:22 74
16 14 Barrett Brandon USA 08:34:42 08:56:56 00:50:58 04:38:05 03:00:39 (119)
17 18 Trevor Delsaut FRA 08:36:03 08:53:56 00:55:17 04:37:34 02:58:12 103
18 20 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:37:09 08:52:34 00:52:22 04:39:42 03:00:05 97
19 26 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:48:30 09:03:40 01:02:14 04:35:28 03:05:47 148
20 21 Chad Holderbaum USA 08:50:13 09:13:43 00:56:26 04:38:26 03:10:21 191
21 29 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:54:04 09:16:33 00:47:24 04:40:45 03:20:56 (201)
22 12 Blake Becker USA 08:59:06 09:31:47 00:54:36 04:46:06 03:13:23 265
23 17 Matthew Curbeau USA 09:05:25 09:30:56 01:00:24 04:43:52 03:16:09 260
24 13 Raymond Botelho USA 09:07:15 09:41:21 00:55:58 04:38:20 03:27:58 302
25 32 Patrick Schuster USA 09:07:27 09:41:26 01:04:24 04:40:11 03:17:52 304
26 31 Patrick Wheeler USA 09:08:31 09:24:57 00:57:54 04:54:48 03:10:48 245
27 23 Peter Kotland CZE 09:48:10 10:04:49 00:59:09 05:03:09 03:40:52 386
10 Lionel Sanders CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
15 Patrice Brisindi CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Timothy Clarke USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Mario Radevic DEU n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Jorge Vazquez MEX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 41 Rachel Joyce GBR 08:49:28 09:07:01 00:53:20 04:44:47 03:06:21 3
2 40 Kelly Williamson USA 09:07:38 09:31:13 00:53:50 05:09:21 02:59:27 27
3 46 Linsey Corbin USA 09:08:08 09:20:20 00:59:22 04:56:30 03:07:16 12
4 43 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:09:04 09:24:14 01:00:45 04:58:01 03:05:18 17
5 42 Leanda Cave GBR 09:10:26 09:22:15 00:52:19 04:56:51 03:16:15 14
6 47 Heather Jackson USA 09:11:03 09:34:51 00:59:54 04:43:59 03:22:09 (34)
7 49 Angela Naeth CAN 09:15:06 09:34:26 01:00:20 04:47:09 03:22:36 32
8 51 Sofie Goos BEL 09:18:19 09:36:50 00:57:32 04:58:40 03:17:07 38
9 60 Danielle Mack USA 09:20:43 09:56:23 01:04:40 04:58:48 03:12:15 81
10 44 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:21:55 09:31:08 00:57:05 04:59:19 03:20:31 26
11 45 Bree Wee USA 09:25:15 09:41:32 00:55:39 05:04:37 03:19:59 46
12 57 Katy Blakemore USA 09:25:35 09:43:40 00:54:34 05:08:15 03:17:47 50
13 59 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:26:01 09:42:57 01:04:45 05:04:05 03:12:12 48
14 54 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:27:55 09:43:36 01:03:40 04:56:28 03:22:47 49
15 53 Rebecca Preston AUS 09:27:57 09:50:32 00:57:36 05:07:26 03:17:54 (64)
16 48 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:37:52 10:01:07 01:11:21 05:01:57 03:19:34 89
17 63 Jessica Meyers USA 09:38:27 10:02:11 01:02:16 05:10:42 03:20:29 91
18 66 Keiko Tanaka JPN 09:43:51 10:00:13 00:57:24 05:15:40 03:25:47 85
19 55 Kaitlin Anelauskas USA 09:45:45 10:11:03 00:55:54 05:32:33 03:12:18 (111)
20 62 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 09:51:09 10:16:41 01:02:39 05:22:33 03:20:56 (122)
21 56 Anne Basso FRA 09:52:13 10:34:12 00:59:52 05:14:44 03:32:37 155
22 58 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:53:03 10:10:15 01:16:13 05:10:03 03:21:47 109
23 65 Olesya Prystayko UKR 09:55:38 10:18:43 01:03:13 05:11:21 03:36:04 128
24 67 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:08:59 10:37:50 01:04:50 05:12:14 03:46:55 158
25 52 Corrie Kristick USA 10:26:56 10:54:01 00:53:22 05:06:29 04:22:05 (167)
26 64 Samantha Morrison USA 12:39:38 13:12:27 00:54:51 05:35:47 06:04:00 (174)
61 Caroline Martineau CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

It’s almost impossible to picks a favorite for this race, though Jordan Rapp has made clear that he is focusing on this race. Ben Hoffmann has already validated his Kona slot and may not be at his absolute best. Andreas Raelert has been struggling for a few years, but appears to be healthy and focused. In addition to these three, no one would be surprised if Faris Al-Sultan, Justin Daerr, Ronnie Schildknecht or Victor Del Corral would win this races.

  • Jordan Rapp: 31% (2-1)
  • Ben Hoffman: 17% (5-1)
  • Andreas Raelert: 14% (6-1)
  • Faris Al-Sultan: 11% (8-1)
  • Justin Daerr: 9% (10-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 7% (13-1)
  • Victor Del Corral: 4% (26-1)
In addition are IM winners Chris McDonald, Matthew Russell, Lionel Sanders (even if his win was the non-swim-IM Florida) and Matt Hanson.

Female Race Participants

As seems to be getting the norm in the Regional Championships, the women’s field seems to be even deeper than the men’s field. Based on the data, Rachel Joyce is a step above the rest of the field, but she will probably be more focused on a good race in October than improving her course record from 2012. Corinne Abraham has shown great potential, winning two Regional Championships in the last two years. Linsey Corbin was ready to race IM South Africa but caught an infection shortly before the race. (She’s had some more bad luck before Texas and had to withdraw once again.) Leanda Cave hasn’t raced an IM this early in the season – she is usually strong in October/November. Defending Champion Kelly Williamson will be looking to repeat her fantastic performance from a year ago. Angela Naeth has taken last season to “learn IM racing” – ending the year with winning IM Chattanooga.

  • Rachel Joyce: 64% (1-1)
  • Corinne Abraham: 11% (8-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 6% (16-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 6% (16-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 5% (19-1)
  • Angela Naeth: 3% (31-1)

In addition to these athletes there are Heather Jackson, Sofie Goos, Danielle Mack (nee Kehoe), Bree Wee, Sarah Piampiano and especially Heather Wurtele that would love to play a big role in this race.

Ironman Australia 2015 – Analyzing Results

Course Conditions

This year’s race in Port Macquarie had pretty slow conditions, especially on the run. A low adjustment of -2:35 (mainly caused by a -1:16 run) leads to a new course rating of 4:15. After a few year’s of smaller fields (9 athletes in 2012 and 8 in 2013), this year had a larger field with 16 Pros.

Male Race Results

Paul Ambrose took the lead in the second half of the bike, building a lead of almost 7 minutes into T2. Luke Bell was working hard to close the gap and whittled it down to about a minute with 5k to go. Paul was then able to find another gear and won by just over two minutes while Luke Bell had to settle for second. Brian Fuller finished third, resulting in an all-Australian podium.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Paul Ambrose AUS 00:47:34 04:39:24 03:05:22 08:35:53 -12:50 US$ 10000
2 Luke Bell AUS 00:44:58 04:49:01 03:01:01 08:38:34 -14:46 US$ 5000
3 Brian Fuller AUS 00:48:28 04:49:53 03:08:30 08:49:39 -14:36 US$ 3250
4 Luke Martin AUS 00:50:30 04:54:20 03:08:13 08:56:19 00:32 US$ 2500
5 Nick Baldwin SEY 00:48:24 04:46:59 03:21:11 08:59:44 06:07 US$ 1750
6 Carl Read NZL 00:50:28 05:07:47 02:58:47 09:02:08 04:31 US$ 1250
7 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:52:43 05:01:17 03:18:07 09:16:07 14:01 US$ 750
8 Dan McGuigan AUS 00:58:38 04:51:16 03:23:50 09:18:50 -40:59 US$ 500
9 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:44:59 04:57:28 03:53:06 09:38:34 49:52  
10 Graham O’Grady NZL 00:44:56 04:59:05 03:51:24 09:38:34 08:22  
11 Matt Randall NZL 00:55:20 04:59:21 03:54:28 09:52:35 00:28  
12 Josef Svoboda CZE 01:09:27 06:07:50 04:16:34 11:42:28 -15:48
  Matt Burton AUS 00:52:37 04:56:32   DNF  
  Peter Robertson AUS 00:48:27 05:05:48   DNF  
  Lachlan Kerin AUS 00:48:21     DNF  

Both Luke Bell (3.665) and Paul Ambrose (2.875) will some more Kona points for a safe July slot. However, Pete Jacobs validated his Automatic Qualifier slot with a 9th place finish in 9:38. He was in the lead until 120k on the bike, but said on Twitter after the race that he ran out of gas at that point. 

Female Race Results

Lisa Marangon was leading the race into T2, but had to end her race early in the run. At that point, Jessica Fleming took the lead, but she was run down by Michelle Bremer who won the race with the fastest marathon. Jessica finished second, while Michelle Gailey took the third place in her come-back race.

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to expected Prize Money
1 Michelle Bremer NZL 00:53:13 05:18:15 03:23:17 09:38:24 -07:28 US$ 10000
2 Jessica Fleming AUS 00:56:26 05:11:50 03:30:35 09:42:18 -10:34 US$ 5000
3 Michelle Gailey AUS 00:52:54 05:24:59 03:28:56 09:50:51 00:01 US$ 3250
4 Marie Sorrell NZL 00:55:52 05:24:53 03:32:24 09:57:06 n/a US$ 2500
5 Caroline Gregory USA 00:53:15 05:44:45 03:35:35 10:16:56 -03:13 US$ 1750
6 Michelle Wu AUS 00:53:18 05:54:08 03:31:52 10:24:49 19:30 US$ 1250
  Lisa Marangon AUS 00:51:59 05:13:34   DNF  
  Christie Sym AUS 00:53:01 05:16:57   DNF  
  Marina Jurjevic AUS 01:00:14     DNF  

At this point, it seems unlikely that any of the female Pro athletes from IM Australia will be able to get a Kona slot.

Number of IMs before Kona

In my post on Why I am #50WomenToKona I mentioned that Kona WPROs raced more often than their male counterparts:

For Kona 2014, the average number of IMs of the male Pros is 2.8, while the female Pros had raced 3.4 IMs.

Some of the feedback I have received indicate that this not widely known, so this post adds some more detail.

First of all, a clear definition of what I mean by “number of IMs before Kona 2014”. Here are the conditions I have used for the averages used in my post:

  • races on or after August 31st 2013 (the date of IM Japan, the start of Kona 2014 qualifying)
  • races before October 11th 2014 (the date of the Kona race)
  • Ironman-distance races (regardless of wether they are “official” Ironman races or races run by other organizations such as Challenge)
  • races that an athlete started (so including finishes as well as DNFs – both are counting towards the “fatigue” an athlete has to deal with before Kona)

Some of these conditions can be fiddled with, but the overall result is still the same – WPRO have raced around 0.5 more IMs than their male counterparts. Here’s a quick comparison of different conditions:

Male Average Female average
IM-distance starts 2.87 3.44
Ironman starts 2.75 3.25
Ironman finishes 2.40 2.94
Ironman finishes up to August 2.40 2.92
Ironman results counting in KPR 2.28 2.79

Staying with my original definition of “IM-distance starts”, here is a look at the distribution of athletes for the number of races before Kona:

IMsBeforeKona

You can clearly see that the main cluster of male athletes has done two or three IMs, while most of the women have done three or four races.

Here is a detailed look at the athletes in each of the groups:

No of Races Male Female
1 Terenzo Bozzone
Richie Cunningham
Jan Frodeno
Paul Matthews
Andy Potts
Timothy Reed
Catriona Morrison
2 Bart Aernouts
Craig Alexander
Igor Amorelli
Kyle Buckingham
Daniel Fontana
Joe Gambles
Ben Hoffman
Jeremy Jurkiewicz
Sebastian Kienle
Timothy O’Donnell
Filip Ospaly
Ivan Rana
Andrew Starykowicz
Boris Stein
Tim Van Berkel
Frederik Van Lierde
Cyril Viennot
Corinne Abraham
Liz Blatchford
Leanda Cave
Daniela Ryf
Caitlin Snow
Kelly Williamson
Heather Wurtele
3 Faris Al-Sultan
Marko Albert
Tyler Butterfield
James Cunnama
Victor Del Corral
Bevan Docherty
Nils Frommhold
Elliot Holtham
Pete Jacobs
Christian Kramer
Eneko Llanos
Chris McDonald
Luke McKenzie
TJ Tollakson
Maik Twelsiek
Marino Vanhoenacker
Michael Weiss
Simone Braendli
Mirinda Carfrae
Linsey Corbin
Mary Beth Ellis
Lucy Gossage
Rachel Joyce
Meredith Kessler
Caroline Steffen
Amanda Stevens
Jodie Swallow
Yvonne Van Vlerken
4 Paul Ambrose
Romain Guillaume
Marek Jaskolka
David Plese
Andreas Raelert
Ronnie Schildknecht
Axel Zeebroek
Natascha Badmann
Gina Crawford
Amber Ferreira
Julia Gajer
Sofie Goos
Asa Lundstroem
Elizabeth Lyles
Kristin Moeller
Kim Schwabenbauer
Beth Shutt
Michelle Vesterby
Bree Wee
5 Christian Brader
Justin Daerr
Daniel Halksworth
Melanie Burke
Katja Konschak
Lisa Roberts
6 Sara Gross
7 Harry Wiltshire Jackie Hering
8 Matthew Russell

Not all of this racing has been motivated by a desire to qualify for Kona – of course there are other reasons for racing such as trying to win an Ironman or to earn some prize money. Looking at those athletes with five or more races, I think that they were motivated more by trying to qualify than by making money: Only Sara Gross has made more than 20,000$ – she made 40,000$ by winning IM Brasil and IM Mt. Tremblant – but she to race Mt. Tremblant in order to qualify.

In summary, the data shows that women Pros raced more often than their male counterparts. The data also indicates that this is a result of the lower number of Kona slots for women and the resulting higher number of points needed to qualify.

Kona Slots and Why I am #50WomenToKona

There has been a lot of discussion on social media about Kona slots and the fact that there are only 35 slots for female Pros and 50 for the men. A lot of people have been arguing for equal WPRO slots in Kona, spearheaded by the #50WomenToKona initiative which has recently solidified into TriEqual (which I am a part of).

While there are a lot of public statements that deserve a longer reply, I would like to use this post to explain my position and the reasoning behind it in a better way than what is possible in the bite-sized format of Twitter.

General Slot Assignment

When space in a race is limited, there has to be some way of choosing the athletes that are allowed to take part in the race. This is especially true for “Championship” type of races such as Kona or ITU championships.

The way I understand it, the ITU has decided to allocate the same number of slots for their championship races to each age group (further breaking it down to x slots per member federation). Ironman has always had a proportional slot assignment: the larger an agegroup in a qualifying race, the more Kona slots will be allocated to it. This also allows the slot assignment to dynamically adapt to changes in the size of agegroups.

In principle, I think that proportional assignment is a rational way to allocate slots. A fixed number of slots leads to agegroups that are “harder” or “easier” to qualify for – the chances to qualify are mainly a function of how large an agegroup is. With proportional slots, the “bigger market” also gets a larger part of the slots and generally the strength and depth of the field in the championship race will be higher.  As long as there is a reasonable number of participants per agegroup in the championship race, there is a low risk of someone failing to qualify that has a shot of placing very well. (For Kona 2014, only the Physically Challenged, WPRO, F-18-24, women older than 60 and men older than 70 had fewer than 40 participants.) Because the Kona agegroup qualifying system guarantees at least one slot per race to each agegroup, it also has a “built in protection” for smaller agegroups.

Why is there so much criticism about the agegroup qualifying system? To me, Ironman is a victim of their own successful expansion: Because Kona is the main selling proposition over Challenge, each new Ironman race requires additional Kona qualifier slots. (The latest new races in Vichy, the Netherlands and Muskoka each have 50 slots.) Obviously, there is limited capability for growing the race in Kona, so adding more races is only possible by taking away slots from existing races. If I remember correctly, around 2005 Frankfurt used to have 150 Kona slots, it is now reduced to 75 slots. The lower number of slots (the recent IM Taiwan only had 25 slots) means that the protection of the smaller agegroups is stronger than with a larger number of slots, and adding new races requires a constant re-juggling of slots. (With the KPR for Pros, adding a new race doesn’t require any changes to the general qualifying system or points-designations.) Also, with fewer slots luck plays a stronger role in qualifying – you have no control over who actually shows up at the race you choose for qualifying. As Ironman will continue to expand, these systems will only get larger over the next years. Therefore, the agegroup qualifying system needs to be updated. Still, proportional slot assignment leads overall to a relatively fair slots distribution and also has a built-in mechanism for adjusting to shifts in the distribution between genders and agegroups.

Why am I #50WomenToKona?

Having said the above, it might come as a bit of a surprise that I support the #50WomenToKona movement that argues for equal female Pro slots in Kona. Here is the tweet that I sent out on March 21st for the first big #50WomenToKona push on social media:

Tweet50WTK

So why do I support  a proportional slot assignment and equal female Pro slots? I think that proportional female Pro slots are an exception to the the general rule. Ironman and their CEO Andrew Messick think that having 35 slots for the Pro women is actually a good deal for them as a purely proportional approach would give them an even lower number of slots. Here is what Andrew said in a recent interview on IMTalk:

Women professional athletes have an easier path to Kona than their male counterparts.

I strongly disagree with Andrew’s statement; instead the KPR system with a lower number of female slots actually leads to severe disadvantages for all Pro women.

Here are a few observations supporting this position:

  • Female Pros need more points for a Kona slot.
    The 2014 July numbers were roughly 4.800 points for the females and 3.500 points for the male. Simplifying things a bit, a male Pro can qualify by racing one Ironman race and a few 70.3s, while a women needs at least two or three full IMs. Also, women are pushed towards the big points races as winning a normal P-2000 Ironman race isn’t even half of what is needed for a Kona slot.
    Although the rules for male and female Pros are the same, the difference in slots essentially creates two different qualifying systems.
  • Because of the different cutoffs resulting from the different number of slots, female Pros have to race more often than male Pros for a Kona slot, usually resulting in higher costs for them that are not necessarily offset by making more prize money.
    For Kona 2014, the average number of IMs of the male Pros is 2.8, while the female Pros had raced 3.4 IMs.
  • As more racing is needed, it is harder to prioritize Kona in order to have a good performance at the World Championships. If women have to race more often, there is less time to properly rest after their last qualifying IM and also have a focused Kona build. Essentially the men’s Kona Pro field is better rested than the women’s field, creating two different Kona races.
    For example Kona 2014 2nd place finisher Ben Hoffmann wouldn’t have qualified as a women, he would have been forced to do another IM instead of being able to prepare for his great Kona performance.
  • Ironman always stresses that they pay equal prize money to men and women. While this is correct, a large part of athlete’s earnings are sponsors payments – and fewer Kona qualifiers means that fewer women have the chance to use this as their “calling card”. Also sponsors typically pay bonuses for Kona qualifying and representing their brands in Kona. Therefore unequal Kona slots create unequal earning opportunities for female Pros.

These differences are a direct result of the unequal number of slots. They affect all professional female athletes – those that qualify for Kona and those who don’t. This is different from qualifying under a proportional system in agegroup ranks: Regardless of the number of slots a female agegrouper can qualify in one Ironman and then focus on their Kona build.

Summary

All of this discussion supports my main point about Kona qualifying: Proportional slot assignment is basically a fair system, but the unequal slots in the KPR create clear inequalities between male and female professionals. Ironman should create equal professional slots as soon as possible in order to avoid these inequalities. They should also be careful not to introduce the same problems when updating their agegroup qualifying system.

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