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Women’s Ironman World Championships 2024, Nice (Sept 22nd) – Always-up-to-date Startlist

Updates

A few athletes have qualified, but are unlikely to race or have already confirmed that they won’t race:

  • Skye Moench is pregnant with a due date in November (crossed out).
  • In August, Daniela Ryf has announced her immediate retirement (crossed out).
  • In a private conversation, Amelia Watkinson said that she will focus on T100 races and won’t race in Nice (crossed out).
  • Mariana Andrade and Danyelle Eberle have qualified but are no longer shown on the Ironman list. For now, I have just added a “?” to their names.
  • Svenja Thoes has been hit by a car during her bike training, and her injuries look serious enough that a start in Nice is at quite unlikely. I have added a “?” to her name.
  • Sept 4th: Ironman has released the official startlist for Nice. This list confirms that all of those mentioned above are indeed not racing in Nice. In addition, Lisa Norden does not yet feel ready to tackle an Ironman and won’t start. I have crossed out their names in the list below.
  • The official list also confirms that Taylor Knibb has NOT received a wildcard.(As she hasn’t validated her AQ slot, I have never added her to the list of starters.)
  • In an interview with the Dutch podcast “Triathlon Inside“, Marlene De Boer won’t be racing in Nice just one week after her big win in Almere.
  • Regan Hollioake is no longer on the most recent Ironman startlist. As expected, Marlene has also been removed.

Qualified Athletes

Name Nation Age Previous Results
Alice Alberts USA 32 none
Mariana Andrade BRA 38 1 finish
Ruth Astle GBR 35 3 finishes
Nikki Bartlett GBR 37 2 finishes (3 starts)
Hannah Berry NZL 33 1 finish
Barbora Besperat CZE 34 none
Daniela Bleymehl GER 36 3 finishes (4 starts)
Lauren Brandon USA 39 3 finishes (5 starts)
Merle Brunnee GER 30 none
Diana Castillo Franco COL 31 none
Lucy Charles-Barclay GBR 31 5 finishes, 1 win (2023)
Susie Cheetham GBR 38 5 finishes (6 starts)
Rebecca Clarke NZL 35 2 finishes
Jeanne Collonge FRA 37 1 finish (2 starts)
Elisabetta Curridori ITA 33 1 finish
Marlene De Boer NED 36 none
Nina Derron SUI 31 1 finish
Diede Diederiks NED 33 none
Danyella Eberle AUS 33 none
Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 43 6 finishes
Katrine Graesboell Christensen DEN 27 none
Anne Haug GER 41 5 finishes, 1 win (2019)
Jackie Hering USA 39 2 finishes
Regan Hollioake AUS 34 none
Julie Iemmolo FRA 25 none
Laura Jansen GER 30 1 finish
Fenella Langridge GBR 32 3 finishes
India Lee GBR 36 none
Danielle Lewis USA 36 0 finishes (1 start)
Kat Matthews GBR 33 1 finish (2 starts)
Simone Mitchell GBR 36 0 finishes (1 start)
Skye Moench USA 35 3 finishes
Fiona Moriarty IRL 36 1 finish
Lisa Norden SWE 39 3 finishes
Laura Philipp GER 37 3 finishes
Marjolaine Pierre FRA 24 none
Giorgia Priarone ITA 32 none
Anne Reischmann GER 32 none
Daniela Ryf SUI 37 9 finishes, 5 wins (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2022)
Marta Sanchez ESP 29 none
Erin Schenkels CAN 31 none
Kylie Simpson AUS 41 1 finish
Julia Skala GER 29 none
Penny Slater AUS 28 2 finishes
Chelsea Sodaro USA 35 2 finishes, 1 win (2022)
Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 36 6 finishes
Bruna Stolf BRA 29 none
Svenja Thoes GER 33 2 finishes
Ai Ueda JPN 41 none
Els Visser NED 34 2 finishes
Amelia Watkinson NZL 33 none
Rosie Wild GBR 33 none
Lotte Wilms NED 40 1 finish
Katharina Wolff GER 34 none
Rachel Zilinskas USA 30 1 finish
Laura Zimmermann GER 34 3 finishes

An Early Short List of 2024 Ironman World Championships Favorites

Even though the 2024 Ironman World Championships in Nice and Kona are still months away and we have a full season of racing in front of us, maybe now is a good time to start discussing the “statistical favorites” for the races. After all, the “short list” is typically built from previous winners and last year’s podium – this is what the first section on “Past Winners” looks at. Then we apply this historical data on the September and October races to see who should be in the mix – and who may be overlooked by this simple way of building a short list.

Of course we still have a lot of racing left before Kona 2024, but I’m still giving “baseline odds” based on 2023 racing and the historical data. Of course, these odds are likely to change before the fall Championships.

Data on Past Winners

When looking at the past winners of the Ironman World Championships, most of them have placed well in the previous year. To put it another way: The best indication for winning Kona is previous success in Kona. Here is the distribution of how the Kona winners after 1990 did before their wins:

Some more details on the categories:

  • Winner: In the 66 races since 1990 (33 men and 33 women), the winner has also won the year before (8 men, 12 women). Interestingly, the last title defenses were already five years ago in 2018 when Patrick Lange and Daniela Ryf retained their 2017 titles.
  • Second & Third: The other athletes on the previous year’s podium have won 24% (second place the year before) and 14% (third place). Both 2023 winners, Sam Laidlow and Lucy Charles-Barclay were second in October 2022.
  • Another common scenario is a previous champion (who maybe had to a bad race the year before or sometimes haven’t been racing at all), this has happened about 16% of the time. Recent examples are Jan Frodeno (who won 2019 after not racing in 2018 with an injury) and Daniela Ryf (who won May 2022 after finishing 13th in the previous race which was in 1999).
  • Winning on Debut is quite rare: It has happened about 8% since 1990 which corresponds to 5 instances: For the men, it was Luc Van Lierde (1996), Kristian Blummenfelt (May 2022) and Gustav Iden (October 2022), for the women we have Chrissie Wellington (2007) and Chelsea Sodaro (October 2022).
  • This leaves only a few “Other” occurrences, all of which have been quite a while ago: Greg Welch (won 1994 but didn’t race in 1993), Peter Reid (won 1998 and was fourth in 1997), Normann Stadler (won 2004 and was fourth in 2003), Heather Fuhr (won 1997 but was seventh the year before) and Natascha Badmann (won 1998 but DNF’d the year before).

A final note about the cutoff date: Going all the way back through Ironman history mainly increases the “Debut” category – not a big surprise since all but one of the first nine champions won on debut! (The exception is John Howard who won 1981 after finishing third the year before.) Before 1990, there have only been another four “Other” winners: Scott Molina (won 1988 after not racing in 1987), Mark Allen (won 1989 after fifth the year before), Joanne Ernst (winning 1985 after fourth the year before) and Erin Baker (winning 1987 after a DNF in 1986).

 

Nice 2024 – Women

The following graph shows “baseline odds” for the women’s racing in Nice on September 22nd:

2024 will be the first time that the women’s World Championships will be held on the tough bike course in Nice. As we’ve seen in the men’s 2023 race, this may put an extra emphasis on a strong bike leg.

Lucy Charles-Barclay – DNS

As the defending Champion, Lucy would likely be the pre-race favorite. However, she has announced that she will not be racing Nice this year, instead focusing on the T100 Tour. Unless that changes, I have to take her out of the Nice odds.

Anne Haug – 25%

Anne has always raced well in big races – she won the Ironman Championship title in 2019 and was on the podium in all her starts. Her run strength forces the other athletes to take some extra risks on the bike, hoping to create a gap that’s too big even for Anne to run down. This has worked in the three most recent Championship races when others were able to have a career day. But Anne only needs a slightly better day herself .. and maybe a small improvement on the bike. Will racing the T100 Series help her reach T2 after the tough bike course in Nice with a smaller gap to the leader, and will she still be able to then run through the field?

Laura Philipp – 15%

With her third place in Kona 2023, Laura has been able to join the statistical “short list” – in previous years she was almost there after two fourth places in 2019 and 2022. Can she be in the mix in the final hour of Nice 2024? She will likely need a better swim so she doesn’t have to play catch up in the first part of the bike as in Kona 2023. Racing the T100 Tour might help her build resilience in deep swim fields, and then the tough bike course in Nice should suit her strengths and give her a lot of tactical options. As she is also one of the strongest runners on the full distance, she might be the next German World Champion winning after placing third the year before. Can she join the group of Faris Al-Sultan, Sebastian Kienle, Jan Frodeno, Patrick Lange and Anne Haug?

Daniela Ryf – 20%

Daniela will be the athlete with the most World Championships on the Nice startline, and she’s also the athlete who won the race the last time it was held outside of Kona: She won St. George after putting seven minutes into Kat Matthews and twelve minutes and more into the rest of the field on the bike. Can she deliver a similarly dominating bike performance in Nice and then also run well? Sam has shown in the men’s 2023 race that a lead of six minutes will be hard to overcome. Can Daniela win her final Ironman World Championship and reinforce her position as one of the greatest Ironman athletes? 

Chelsea Sodaro – 15%

When Chelsea won the 2022 Kona title, she had a strong bike leg, starting the run about two minutes ahead of Anne and then posting the fastest marathon. In Kona 2023, she struggled on the bike but then also had a good marathon, the second-fastest of the day but still four minutes slower than Anne. How strong will Chelsea bike in the French mountains – and how strong can she run in September 2024? If she can put together three solid legs, she will be at least a strong podium contender.

Who’s Missing? 25%

There are a few more names who will be discussed as Nice favorites. Skye Moench might be one of the athletes who will try to be in the mix, but her tactics might be calibrated for a spot on the podium. Taylor Knibb has impressed in her Ironman debut in Kona 2023, but she’ll be focused on the Olympic Games and it’s not clear if she can validate her slot from winning 70.3 Worlds and then also build for Nice which probably suits her bike strength. Another athlete with a strong bike leg is Kat Matthews who has been on the podium in St. George in 2022. Can either of these become the first female Champion from the “Other” category since Natascha Badmann in 1998?

Kona 2024 – Men

Here are “baseline odds” for the October race in Kona after 2023 racing:

Let’s have a closer look at the athletes on the short list!

Sam Laidlow – 25%

The “easy pick” is always last year’s winner. Sam has delivered two great performances in the last two Ironman World Championship races – second in Kona 2022 and winner in Nice 2023. There is very little reason not to have him as a strong contender for 2024 as well. In both recent years, he’s had a fair mix of ups and downs, and he may arrive in Kona 2024 without having shown his “Championship form” in any of the upcoming races. Even then, he’ll have to be taken seriously as he’s always racing for the win and has shown that he can deliver. 

Patrick Lange – 15%

Without any doubt, Patrick has been the best long-course runner in recent years – he seems to be chasing course records and possibly also the first 2:30 marathon. While that is unlikely in the heat and humidity of Kona, he’ll be looking to reclaim the run course record which was taken over by Gustav Iden with a 2:36:14 as part of his 2022 win. In Nice 2023, Patrick ran seven minutes and more into anyone likely to start the run ahead of him, and nine minutes into Sam. If Patrick wants to win another big title, he can’t give up more time than that into T2, likely forcing him to bike a bit harder – and still run at a similar level. Are we going to see any indication of an improvement on the bike in his 2024 races before Kona?

Magnus Ditlev – 15%

Magnus has shown that he has the necessary tools to win big races – especially a very strong bike leg. His third place in Nice 2023 was his first Ironman World Championship podium, and often that is a necessary step on the way to the title. For the last two years, Magnus had his best performance in the summer, winning Challenge Roth with fast times, and maybe he was already a bit “battle-weary” by fall for the Championship races. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s quiet for the first two-thirds of the year, even if he will be tempted to race the T100 Tour and defend his Roth title. What season plan will he choose for 2024 and will that allow him to race his best in October? 

Kristian Blummenfelt – 15%

For the first half of the season, Kristian will be focused on July 30th – the Olympic Games in Paris and a chance to defend his Gold medal from Tokyo. After that, he plans to shift to Ironman racing and Kona. This leaves the question of how he intends to validate his slot. If he wants to avoid doing a full-distance Ironman, he’d have to finish two Ironman 70.3s before July, i.e. as part of his Paris prep. The alternative would be to do an Ironman after Paris – but then his only option before the validation period closes is Ironman Frankfurt on August 18th. Let’s see where he’s going to show up for validation! And how competitive can he be in Kona after almost two full seasons focused on shorter distances?

Gustav Iden – 15%

Gustav has had a crappy 2023 season, and he starts 2024 with an Achilles injury that keeps him from doing proper run training. Hopefully, he can quickly get back to full health, and hopefully he can then train and race with a clear head. Will he still try to qualify for Paris, or is he going to put his full focus on long-distance racing for 2024? And would that require a change in his training environment as his training buddy Kristian will be focused on Paris? Among all the contenders discussed so far, Gustav is likely to be the first athlete with an indication of where things may go for 2024 and if he can be back to racing competitively. If he can get things back to his 2021 and 2022 level, he’ll be a top contender for Kona 2024 – and he and Sam can argue about who will be the “real defending champion” for Kona 2024.

Who’s missing?

This early in the season, there are a lot of questions “the usual suspects” have to answer before Kona. In addition, 2024 racing could add another name or two to the “Kona short list”. Which changes in the early odds shown above are going to develop during the season?

Men’s Ironman World Championship 2023 – How the Race Unfolded

Here are the Top 10 finishers from the men’s 2023 Ironman World Championship in Nice and others who played an important role as the race progressed:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Sam Laidlow FRA 00:47:50 (5) 04:31:28 (1) 02:41:46 (6) 08:06:22 -26:44 US$ 125,000
2 Patrick Lange GER 00:49:01 (13) 04:43:24 (10) 02:32:41 (1) 08:10:17 -10:04 US$ 65,000
3 Magnus Ditlev DEN 00:49:14 (19) 04:35:54 (2) 02:41:07 (5) 08:11:43 -07:30 US$ 45,000
4 Rudy Von Berg USA 00:47:50 (5) 04:37:23 (4) 02:42:44 (7) 08:12:57 -19:35 US$ 25,000
5 Leon Chevalier FRA 00:51:11 (31) 04:39:30 (5) 02:39:26 (4) 08:15:07 -21:08 US$ 20,000
6 Arthur Horseau FRA 00:53:19 (36) 04:42:19 (6) 02:37:17 (3) 08:18:36 -11:16 US$ 18,000
7 Bradley Weiss ZAF 00:47:55 (11) 04:44:23 (11) 02:43:22 (8) 08:20:54 -12:06 US$ 15,000
8 Gregory Barnaby ITA 00:47:51 (7) 04:44:23 (11) 02:44:04 (11) 08:21:15 03:05 US$ 13,000
9 Robert Wilkowiecki POL 00:47:48 (4) 04:44:36 (13) 02:43:45 (10) 08:21:23 -16:40 US$ 12,000
10 Clement Mignon FRA 00:47:59 (12) 04:43:03 (9) 02:47:55 (12) 08:24:10 -04:41 US$ 11,000
11 Matthew Marquardt USA 00:47:46 (1) 04:49:11 (17) 02:43:44 (9) 08:26:17 -03:30 US$ 8,000
14 Cameron Wurf AUS 00:51:07 (28) 04:36:03 (3) 02:58:40 (22) 08:30:42 -07:37 US$ 4,000
16 Braden Currie NZL 00:47:46 (1) 04:46:37 (16) 02:58:01 (21) 08:38:50 08:38
24 Jan Frodeno GER 00:47:47 (3) 04:44:59 (14) 03:08:12 (26) 08:48:42 22:04

You can find the full results in my Nice Results post.

The following graph shows how the race developed (click for a hi-res version):

Men Top10

Let’s start with a short summary of the race:

  • In the swim, a group of eleven athletes including Jan Frodeno, Sam Laidlow and other pre-race favorites was able to break away from the rest of the field, the first chase group including Patrick Lange and Magnus Ditlev was  just a minute behind.
  • The front group split up as soon as they hit the first hills. Sam Laidlow pushed the pace, for the first 40 miles Clement Mignon was able to ride with him but then had to let Sam go as well. Sam posted the fastest bike split of the day and built a lead of about five minutes into T2.
  • In the second half of the bike leg, Rudy von Berg and Magnus Ditlev were the closest chasers of Sam. Cam Wurf was able to improve his position on the bike but never got further ahead than fourth place. All other athletes were at least ten minutes back, and most of the other “big names” reached T2 within 2 minutes of each other.
  • On the run, Sam had a very solid 2:41 marathon and his win never was in doubt. Once he found his rhythm, Patrick Lange was the fastest runner of the field, with his 2:32 marathon he was able to move into second place. Magnus Ditlev ran slightly quicker than Rudy von Berg, they finished third and fourth.

(All photos are kindly supplied by Marcel Hilger.)

Compared to earlier Ironman World Championships in Kona, how unusual were these results in Nice?

  • Sam Laidlow was the first French winner of IM Worlds.
  • The French men further increased their impact on the race. Before 2022, there were a few French in the Top 10 – the first one was Nice race director Yves Cordier in 1989. There were two French Top 10 athletes in May in St. George (Chevalier and Laidlow) and three in October in Kona (adding Mignon). In Nice there was another new athlete (Horseau), leading to a record four French athletes in the Top 10.
  • Nice also had the first Italian (Barnaby) and first Polish (Wilkowicki) athletes in the Top 10.

The next Ironman World Championships in Kona will indicate how much of these trends were influenced by the different location in Nice instead of Kona.

The rest of this post is a closer look at the main athletes and how their days unfolded.

Ironman World Champion: Sam Laidlow

After finishing second in Kona the year before, Sam Laidlow was able to win the 2023 title:

1 Sam

After a good swim in the front group, Sam took some extra time to put on his “aero socks”, losing almost a minute in T1. He quickly closed that gap in the flat section along the Mediterranean and with Clement Mignon started to move away from almost everyone else in the first climbs. 25k into the bike, they were already more than a minute ahead of Braden Currie and one and a half minutes ahead of a shrinking chase group. Sam and Clement stayed together in the second big climb as well, but then Sam slowly built a lead in the flatter middle section.

By 100k, Sam was four minutes ahead of Rudy von Berg and Magnus Ditlev. In the final descent back to sea level, Rudy was only able to get back a few seconds, and at the start of the run Sam’s lead was 5:36 over Rudy and 6:00 over Magnus. Sam posted the fast bike leg of 4:31, four and a half minutes quicker than Magnus and Cam Wurf.

At the start of the run in Kona 2022, Sam was 6:19 ahead of Gustav Iden, Kristian Blummenfelt and Max Neumann. But other than last year, his chasers in Nice weren’t really able to reduce his lead: After three of four run laps, he was still six minutes ahead of Magnus. In the end, Sam ran a 2:41 marathon, the sixth-best in the field, and won the Ironman World Championships with a final gap of 3:55.

Second Place: Patrick Lange

Patrick Lange had the best marathon of the day which saw him finish second:

2 Patrick

Patrick just missed the first fast swim pack, in T2 he was a minute behind the trailing swimmer in the first group but leading the second group that included some strong bike riders such as Magnus Ditlev. Once Patrick hit the hills, he was not able to stay with Magnus. Even if he was riding in 15th and continued to lose time to the front, he got a boost from catching up to Jan Frodeno after three hours of racing. He must have felt even better when he was able to ride away from Frodo in the climb to Coursegoules around mile 75. He was overtaking a few other athletes and was in a solid Top 10 position – but already more than ten minutes behind the lead. He lost some more time in the final flat section and started the run in ninth place, exactly 13 minutes behind Sam and seven minutes behind Magnus in third. How far ahead would a good marathon carry him?

As is typical for him, Patrick’s start of the marathon looked “slow”, for example Gregory Barnaby was able to put forty seconds into him in the first 4k of the run. But Patrick’s run pace is unrelenting – once he has dialed into his pace, he won’t slow down. At the end of the first run lap, Patrick had caught Gregory Barnaby and already moved into fifth place. The gap to the podium had come down to just under five minutes, even if Sam seemed out of reach for him with a lead of over eleven minutes. In each of the final three laps, Patrick was able to make up one spot: In lap 2 he caught Cam Wurf, in lap 3 Rudy von Berg and at the start of the final lap he passed Magnus for second place. Patrick ran a 2:32 marathon, the fastest of the day by almost four minutes over Matt Hanson (who finished 21st) and also the fastest ever in an Ironman World Championship.

Third Place: Magnus Ditlev

After a strong bike and run, Magnus Ditlev claimed the final podium spot:

3 Magnus

Similar to Patrick, Magnus also lost some time in the swim (he exited the water 12 seconds behind Patrick) and then some more time in T1. At the start of the bike he was more than a minute behind Patrick, but made up most of that in the flat section at the start and quickly overtook Patrick in the first climbs. But at that point, Sam had already started to push the pace at the front, and by mile 20 Sam was almost three minutes ahead. Then Magnus started to ride a bit quicker than Sam and also gained quite a few spots: By mile 35 he had ridden into 4th place, and the gap had slightly shrunk down to just over two and a half minutes.

It was expected that the rolling middle section would suit Magnus and others who could push big watts, but Sam rode that part hard and faster than everyone else. Magnus continued to lose time to Sam, and Rudy von Berg was even able to ride away  from him in the closing downhill. Magnus was able to almost bridge up to Rudy in the final flat section, but he started the run in third place, almost six minutes behind Sam.

Once on the run, Magnus closed the final 30 seconds to Rudy and then ran away from him after the first turnaround. At the end of the first run lap, he was 28 seconds ahead of Rudy but still six minutes behind Sam. Magnus continued to push the pace but ran a bit out of steam at the end of the second loop – he only made up another 30 seconds to Sam but was able to increase his gap to Rudy to almost two minutes. In the final loop, Patrick stormed by Magnus – Magnus ran a 2:41 marathon but wasn’t able to match Patrick’s 2:32 speed. A third place was nonetheless his first Ironman World Championship podium and a solid improvement over his eighth place from Kona 2022.

Fourth Place: Rudy Von Berg

Rudy Von Berg used his “local knowledge” to finish in fourth place:

4 Rudy

Rudy started his day with a good swim in the lead group and was close to the front when the climbing started. When Sam and Clement rode away, he wasn’t following them but rode at his own pace. After about 30 miles, he had lost about two minutes to Sam, and Magnus had ridden up to him. Then he rode together with Magnus until the top of Coursegoules, about mile 80, riding in second and third almost five minutes behind Sam. In the descent back to sea level, Rudy used his course knowledge, made up a few seconds to Sam but also put a gap of about a minute into Magnus. He gave up some of this in the final flatter section but was still 37 seconds ahead of Magnus at the end of the bike.

On the run, Rudy was quickly caught by Magnus in the first 5k and then had to let Magnus run away. When Patrick passed him at about 28k (run lap 3), he was able to slightly increase his pace for the final 14k. Magnus was ahead by just under two minutes, and Rudy was able to gain back only a few seconds. He crossed the finish line in fourth place, 1:14 behind Magnus. His 2:42 marathon was a new personal best for him, about 6 minutes quicker than when he won IM France in 2022 (on what was then probably a slightly shorter run course than for the World Championships).

Fifth Place: Leon Chevalier

After a seventh place in Kona 2022, Leon Chevalier improved two spots and finished in fifth place:

5 Leon

Leon was the top finisher from the athletes not in the first or second swim group, he exited the water 3:21 behind the swim leader in 30th place. Once on the bike, he started to move forward in the field, rode well in the climbs and entered the Top10 before Andon, roughly at mile 50. He wasn’t quite able to match Sam’s pace on the bike and continued to lose time to the front, but he was able to make up even more places on the bike. By T2, he was eleven minutes behind Sam but had moved into fifth place, posting the fifth-best bike split of the day.

Leon also had a great 2:49 marathon, which was the fourth-best in the field. Especially in the second run loop, he was able to put time into almost everyone who was slightly behind him, only Patrick Lange was able to overtake him.

Those in front of him also ran well, and Leon was only able to overtake Cam Wurf. In the end, he finished in fifth place, 2:10 behind Rudy in fourth but also with a 3:29 gap to sixth place.

Sixth Place: Arthur Horseau

After losing time in the swim and on the bike, Arthur Horseau had a solid run through the field all the way into sixth place:

6 Arthur

Arthur’s result is proof that patient racing can give you a great overall result in the end even after a slower swim. He was among the last Pros out of the water, losing five and a half minutes to the leaders, and in the first half of the bike he lost another ten minutes to Sam. But then he started to show that he was racing with a plan: He had the fourth fastest split for the last 85k, quicker than Magnus Ditlev and Cam Wurf. At the start of the run he had advanced into 16th place, just four minutes behind the Top 10.

He showed great pacing for the run as well. After taking some time to ease into the run, he ran the second fastest among the top finishers (only Patrick Lange was faster, further down the field Matt Hanson was also slightly quicker) and started to climb in the field: 13th after lap 1, 10th after lap 2, then seventh after lap 3.

In the final lap, Arthur was also able to overtake Gregory Barnaby and finished in sixth place (and third Frenchman!).

Seventh Place: Bradley Weiss

Even with a five-minute penalty, Bradley Weiss showed a great performance and finished seventh:

7 Bradley

Going into the race, Brad was very excited about his chances for a great race in Nice. His day started well: He swam in the lead group, exiting  the water in 11th place just 9 seconds off the lead. In Roth, he had lost almost two minutes to Sam and Magnus – in Nice he swam in the group with Sam and was 1:20 ahead of Magnus. When Sam pushed the pace in the early climbs on the bike, Brad did not follow him but rode among the chasers with the group getting smaller and smaller.

Very early on the bike Brad received a drafting penalty – according to him “while climbing a 10% switch back at less than 10km/h”. When he took his penalty right after mile 50, you could see his frustration in the TV pictures. Would he be able to keep things together? Before being forced to stop, he was in third place riding with Rudy and Magnus – after the penalty he was eight minutes behind the lead, even if still inside the Top 10. He rode for a while with Leon but eventually had to let him go.  He fell back into the group behind that had a lot of strong runners, reaching T2 in tenth position.

He had a quick transition and was running most of the first lap with Robert Wilkowiecki in ninth position. Towards the end of lap 1 he was able to run away from Robert but then had a tough patch around the half-marathon mark and fell back to tenth place. But he was able to come back to run well after 30k, making up three spots in the final lap to finish in seventh place. On a physically and mentally tough day Brad showed a lot of resilience and handled the challenges of the race very well.

Eighth Place: Gregory Barnaby

In his first Ironman World Championships, Gregory Barnaby was in a great position all day and finished in eighth place:

8 Gregory

In his only previous Ironman race at IM Israel in November 2022, Gregory swam in the first big group with some fast swimmers. In Nice he managed to stay in the lead group as well. While he didn’t follow Sam and Clement when they rode away in the first hills, he stayed in the chase group. But when Magnus rode up to that group and the pace picked up, he was no longer able to follow and he started to fall back. For some time, he was riding alone between the groups, then in a small group with Niek Heldoorn and Matt Marquardt and by mile 80 with Patrick Lange and Robert Wilkowiecki.

Gregory reached T2 in 8th place, and after a fast transition he moved into 6th place in the first run lap. In the second lap, he was overtaken by Patrick but also gained back his sixth place by overtaking Cam Wurf. Not much changed for him in run lap 3, but then he lost two spots in the final 10k when Arthur Horseau and Brad Weiss were able to run quicker. However, eighth place was the best finish by an Italian at an Ironman World Championship – before him it was Daniel Fontana’s 12th place in 2011.

Ninth Place: Robert Wilkowiecki

After a disappointing 39th place in Kona 2022, Robert Wilkowiecki improved to ninth place in Nice:

9 Robert

Robert swam with the front group and exited the water in fourth place. Once the lead group hit the hills, he quickly fell back, losing just under ten minutes in the first half of the bike. Riding with Gregory and Patrick in the second half, he didn’t lose much more time to the front and entered T2 in the Top 10. He also ran a solid 2:43 marathon in a close back-and-forth with Brad Weiss. In the end, he almost caught Gregory in the final kilometers, finishing 8 seconds behind him in ninth place, becoming the first Polish athlete in the World Championship Top 10.

Tenth Place: Clement Mignon

After leading the race early on the bike, Clement fell back in the second half but still ran well enough to finish in the Top10:

In last year’s Kona race, Clement lost 90 seconds to the front group in the swim and got  a penalty when chasing on the bike. In Nice, he was able to hold on to the front group in the swim and went with Sam Laidlow in the first hills. Clement was able to stay with Sam until the end of the climbs in the first third on the bike, but then had to let Sam ride away in the flatter middle section. But he still had a sizable lead to the next chasers, and it took Rudy and Magnus until mile 70 to catch him. Their pace was too hot for Clement and he continued to lose more positions and more time to Sam. By T2, he had dropped to sixth place, eleven minutes behind Sam and less than two minutes ahead of a group of fast runners. His first half marathon was only 68 seconds slower than Sam’s, but then he had to slow down in the third lap, dropping from seventh to tenth place.

Clement tried to rally at the start of the fourth lap in order to make up some positions late in the marathon, ran out of steam but was still able to secure his tenth place.

Bonus: Matthew Marquardt, Cameron Wurf, Braden Currie and Jan Frodeno

A look at some more athletes:

Men More

Matt Marquardt was first out of the water, but similar to most of the field he then fell back as soon as the hills started. For the first half of the bike he was just inside the Top 10, almost ten minutes behind Sam. He also lost more time in the second half, by T2 he fell back to 17th, almost 17 minutes behind the leader but only four minutes outside the Top 10. He ran a good 2:43 marathon, the ninth fastest of the whole field and advanced into 11th place.

As usual, Cameron Wurf lost some time in the swim, he was 28th in T1, 3:21 behind swim leader Matt Marquardt. That was another small step forward for him, he was 4:36 behind in Kona 2022. But as in Kona last year, his bike leg was overshadowed by Sam Laidlow: Sam rode four and a half minutes quicker. Cam finished the bike in fourth place but was quickly caught by the faster runners and had fallen out of the Top 10 by the half-marathon mark. In the end, a 2:54 marathon was only good enough for 14th place.

The day started well for Braden Currie, he was second out of the water. But then things did not go according to plan: The zipper of his race suit broke and he had to ride with the top flapping in the wind. With his team scrambling in the background (potential penalty? what to do in T2?), he lost time to the front but rode in the second group until halfway on the bike. He then received a penalty for littering which seemed to break his spirit. By T2, he was more than 16 minutes behind in 14th place. He had decided not to serve his penalty before T2 and ran a decent first half-marathon, still in 15th place. His pace dropped in run lap 3, and in the end he crossed the line in 16th place, the first position outside the money. After being DQ’d for not serving his penalty, he appealed and the penalty and his DQ were overturned.

Jan Frodeno‘s goodbye to professional racing ended not quite in the way he was hoping for. The swim went well, he was in a good position in the big front group and exited the water just one second behind swim leader Matt Marquardt. However, without any swim specialist willing to push the pace the lead group consisted of eleven athletes, probably more than Frodo was hoping for. [tearing race suit] Once Sam and Clement rode away at the front, Frodo rode in the chase group. But then he was no longer able to stay with Rudy, Brad or Braden in the climb up to the Col d’Ecre, and Magnus passed him as well. By mile 40, he had fallen back to the group around Patrick Lange, and the two stayed together until mile 80 when Patrick was able to ride away in the last big climb to Coursegoules. At that point, Frodo was more than twelve minutes behind and it seemed clear that he wouldn’t be able to win his last Pro race. To a German TV cameraman he shrugged and said “A gladiator dies in his arena”. Nonetheless, he was almost able to ride back up to Patrick by T2. At the start of the run, he took some extra time to hug his family, losing some more time and making it clear that he wouldn’t run all out but still finish respectably. Later on the run, he also hugged and thanked his coach Dan Lorang who was out on the run course. In the end, he ran a 3:08 marathon, finishing 24th. He was given a rousing reception by the spectators at the finish line and said goodbye to them and all triathlon fans.

Frodo Nizza2023

All photos © Marcel Hilger, used with permission.

Ironman World Championships 2023 – Analyzing Results

IM23 WC NiceLogo Medal 1 large

Course Conditions

There are two interesting “comparison points” for this year’s IM World Champs.

First of all, the comparison to the course in Kona. Overall, the Nice course was about 27 minutes slower, mainly because of the hilly bike course which was nearly 28 minutes slower. If you apply this to Sam Laidlow’s times, he raced the equivalent of a 7:40 overall (Gustav’s win in 2022: 7:40:23) and a 4:04 bike split (his 2022 Kona course record: 4:04:35). The swim was about a minute quicker than in Kona, the run only by a few seconds – indicating that Patrick could have run a 2:33 in Kona!

The second comparison can be made to the course of IM France. Even with the lengthened bike course (estimated to be 8k longer than the 2022 and 2023 bike course), the World Championship field raced almost the same time as the June 2023 field (fastest bike in the summer: Cameron Wurf’s 4:31:51). The run course was reported to be slightly lengthened as well, still Patrick’s 2:32 blew away the old course record of 2:37 by Bart Aernouts from 2013.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time Diff to exp. Prize Money
1 Sam Laidlow FRA 00:47:50 (5) 04:31:28 (1) 02:41:46 (6) 08:06:22 -26:44 US$ 125,000
2 Patrick Lange GER 00:49:01 (13) 04:43:24 (10) 02:32:41 (1) 08:10:17 -10:04 US$ 65,000
3 Magnus Ditlev DEN 00:49:14 (19) 04:35:54 (2) 02:41:07 (5) 08:11:43 -07:30 US$ 45,000
4 Rudy Von Berg USA 00:47:50 (5) 04:37:23 (4) 02:42:44 (7) 08:12:57 -19:35 US$ 25,000
5 Leon Chevalier FRA 00:51:11 (31) 04:39:30 (5) 02:39:26 (4) 08:15:07 -21:08 US$ 20,000
6 Arthur Horseau FRA 00:53:19 (36) 04:42:19 (6) 02:37:17 (3) 08:18:36 -11:16 US$ 18,000
7 Bradley Weiss ZAF 00:47:55 (11) 04:44:23 (11) 02:43:22 (8) 08:20:54 -12:06 US$ 15,000
8 Gregory Barnaby ITA 00:47:51 (7) 04:44:23 (11) 02:44:04 (11) 08:21:15 03:05 US$ 13,000
9 Robert Wilkowiecki POL 00:47:48 (4) 04:44:36 (13) 02:43:45 (10) 08:21:23 -16:40 US$ 12,000
10 Clement Mignon FRA 00:47:59 (12) 04:43:03 (9) 02:47:55 (12) 08:24:10 -04:41 US$ 11,000
11 Matthew Marquardt USA 00:47:46 (1) 04:49:11 (17) 02:43:44 (9) 08:26:17 -03:30 US$ 8,000
12 Arnaud Guilloux FRA 00:49:57 (25) 04:42:47 (8) 02:50:39 (16) 08:28:53 -23:15 US$ 6,000
13 Benjamin Hill AUS 00:53:11 (35) 04:42:31 (7) 02:48:39 (14) 08:29:41 -32:30 US$ 5,000
14 Cameron Wurf AUS 00:51:07 (28) 04:36:03 (3) 02:58:40 (22) 08:30:42 -07:37 US$ 4,000
15 Niek Heldoorn NED 00:47:53 (8) 04:45:32 (15) 02:54:27 (17) 08:32:33 -09:42 US$ 3,000
16 Braden Currie NZL 00:47:46 (1) 04:46:37 (16) 02:58:01 (21) 08:38:50 08:38  
17 Mathias Petersen DEN 00:47:54 (10) 04:49:21 (19) 02:57:28 (20) 08:40:11 -00:20  
18 Remi Conte FRA 00:53:10 (34) 04:56:18 (24) 02:48:35 (13) 08:43:38 04:36  
19 Leonard Arnold GER 00:49:19 (24) 04:54:19 (22) 02:55:09 (19) 08:44:44 16:06  
20 Jonas Hoffmann GER 00:50:10 (26) 04:58:57 (29) 02:50:14 (15) 08:44:54 03:21  
21 Matt Hanson USA 00:53:06 (33) 05:10:01 (35) 02:36:29 (2) 08:45:55 08:55  
22 Andre Lopes BRA 00:49:08 (15) 04:56:49 (25) 02:54:39 (18) 08:46:15 00:18  
23 Ben Phillips NZL 00:49:11 (18) 04:49:59 (20) 03:03:22 (24) 08:48:00 -12:36  
24 Jan Frodeno GER 00:47:47 (3) 04:44:59 (14) 03:08:12 (26) 08:48:42 22:04  
25 Franz Loeschke GER 00:49:14 (19) 05:00:35 (31) 03:02:05 (23) 08:57:34 18:40  
26 Georg Enzenberger AUT 00:51:10 (30) 05:00:03 (30) 03:03:25 (25) 09:00:29 18:49  
27 Fernando Toldi BRA 00:49:14 (19) 04:57:10 (26) 03:15:18 (27) 09:06:54 18:56  
28 Maximilian Hammerle AUT 00:53:21 (38) 04:53:35 (21) 03:26:51 (28) 09:20:37 21:03  
29 Adam Feigh USA 00:53:21 (38) 05:03:20 (32) 03:27:35 (29) 09:32:16 27:28  
30 Joe Skipper GBR 00:53:19 (36) 04:58:50 (28) 03:42:03 (31) 09:40:13 1:05:57  
31 Tuan Chun Chang TWN 00:49:08 (15) 05:30:11 (37) 03:38:45 (30) 10:04:28 40:21  
32 Brent McMahon CAN 00:49:04 (14) 04:54:27 (23) 05:31:55 (32) 11:21:14    
  Kristian Hogenhaug DEN 00:49:18 (23) 04:49:14 (18)   DNF    
  Mike Phillips NZL 00:51:04 (27) 04:58:02 (27)   DNF    
  Pieter Heemeryck BEL 00:49:10 (17) 05:06:22 (34)   DNF    
  Kristian Grue NOR 00:53:04 (32) 05:03:41 (33)   DNF    
  Reinaldo Colucci BRA 00:49:15 (22) 05:28:47 (36)   DNF    
  Denis Chevrot FRA 00:47:53 (8)     DNF    
  Chris Leiferman USA 00:51:08 (29)     DNF    
  Nathan Dortmann FRA 01:00:30 (40)     DNF    

Ironman World Championships 2023 in Nice (MPRO, Sept 10th) – Seedings

Previous WinnersIM23 WC NiceLogo Medal 1 large

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
1978 Gordon Haller (USA) 11:46:58    
1979 Tom Warren (USA) 11:15:56 Lyn Lemaire (USA) 12:55:38
1980 Dave Scott (USA) 09:24:33 Robin Beck (USA) 11:21:24
1981 John Howard (USA) 09:38:29 Linda Sweeney (USA) 12:00:32
1982 Scott Tinley (USA) 09:19:41 Kathleen McCartney (USA) 11:09:40
1982 Dave Scott (USA) 09:08:23 Julie Leach (USA) 10:54:08
1983 Dave Scott (USA) 09:05:57 Sylviane Puntous (CAN) 10:43:36
1984 Dave Scott (USA) 08:54:20 Sylviane Puntous (CAN) 10:25:13
1985 Scott Tinley (USA) 08:50:54 Joanne Ernst (USA) 10:25:22
1986 Dave Scott (USA) 08:28:37 Paula Newby-Fraser (USA) 09:49:14
1987 Dave Scott (USA) 08:34:13 Erin Baker (NZL) 09:35:25
1988 Scott Molina (USA) 08:31:00 Paula Newby-Fraser (USA) 09:01:01
1989 Mark Allen (USA) 08:09:15 Paula Newby-Fraser (USA) 09:00:56
1990 Mark Allen (USA) 08:28:17 Erin Baker (NZL) 09:13:42
1991 Mark Allen (USA) 08:18:32 Paula Newby-Fraser (USA) 09:07:52
1992 Mark Allen (USA) 08:09:08 Paula Newby-Fraser (USA) 08:55:28
1993 Mark Allen (USA) 08:07:45 Paula Newby-Fraser (USA) 08:58:23
1994 Greg Welch (AUS) 08:20:27 Paula Newby-Fraser (USA) 09:20:14
1995 Mark Allen (USA) 08:20:34 Karen Smyers (USA) 09:16:46
1996 Luc Van Lierde (BEL) 08:04:08 Paula Newby-Fraser (USA) 09:06:49
1997 Thomas Hellriegel (GER) 08:33:01 Heather Fuhr (CAN) 09:31:43
1998 Peter Reid (CAN) 08:24:30 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:24:16
1999 Luc Van Lierde (BEL) 08:17:17 Lori Bowden (CAN) 09:13:02
2000 Peter Reid (CAN) 08:21:00 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:26:16
2001 Timothy DeBoom (USA) 08:31:18 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:28:37
2002 Timothy DeBoom (USA) 08:29:56 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:07:54
2003 Peter Reid (CAN) 08:22:35 Lori Bowden (CAN) 09:11:55
2004 Normann Stadler (GER) 08:33:29 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:50:04
2005 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:14:17 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:09:30
2006 Normann Stadler (GER) 08:11:56 Michellie Jones (AUS) 09:18:31
2007 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:15:34 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:08:45
2008 Craig Alexander (AUS) 08:17:45 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 09:06:23
2009 Craig Alexander (AUS) 08:20:21 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:54:02
2010 Chris McCormack (AUS) 08:10:37 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:58:36
2011 Craig Alexander (AUS) 08:03:56 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:55:08
2012 Pete Jacobs (AUS) 08:18:37 Leanda Cave (GBR) 09:15:54
2013 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:12:29 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 08:52:14
2014 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 08:14:18 Mirinda Carfrae (AUS) 09:00:55
2015 Jan Frodeno (GER) 08:14:40 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:57:57
2016 Jan Frodeno (GER) 08:06:30 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:46:46
2017 Patrick Lange (GER) 08:01:40 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:50:47
2018 Patrick Lange (GER) 07:52:39 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:26:18
2019 Jan Frodeno (GER) 07:51:13 Anne Haug (GER) 08:40:10
2022 Kristian Blummenfelt (NOR) 07:49:15 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:34:58
2022 Gustav Iden (NOR) 07:40:23 Chelsea Sodaro (USA) 08:33:45

Last Race’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Gustav Iden NOR 00:48:22 04:11:05 02:36:14 07:40:23
2 Sam Laidlow FRA 00:48:15 04:04:35 02:44:39 07:42:23
3 Kristian Blummenfelt NOR 00:48:19 04:11:15 02:39:20 07:43:22

Kona slots and Prize Money

IM World Championships has 3 Pro Kona slots for 2024 (podium, no rolldown). It has a total prize purse of 375.000 US$, paying 15 deep.

Male Race Participants

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Consistency
1 1 Jan Frodeno GER 08:03:53 00:45:58 04:34:47 05:25:45 02:38:08 55% +3% -42% (14)
2 7 Magnus Ditlev DEN 08:03:59 00:47:13 04:32:59 05:25:12 02:38:47 83% +17% -0% (5)
3 2 Patrick Lange GER 08:05:25 00:46:28 04:42:59 05:34:28 02:30:57 84% +9% -7% (11)
4 9 Braden Currie NZL 08:10:40 00:45:53 04:41:01 05:31:54 02:38:46 79% +2% -19% (18)
5 5 Joe Skipper GBR 08:11:13 00:50:14 04:37:01 05:32:16 02:38:57 78% +1% -22% (39)
6 49 Arthur Horseau FRA 08:11:41 00:49:14 04:39:40 05:32:54 02:38:47 15% +24% -61% (5)
7 11 Rudy Von Berg USA 08:11:49 00:46:07 04:37:24 05:28:31 02:43:18 69% +31% -0% (4)
8 29 Niek Heldoorn NED 08:12:02 00:46:34 04:40:28 05:32:02 02:40:00 20% +80% -0% (3)
9 10 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:12:23 00:46:26 04:44:07 05:35:32 02:36:51 67% +17% -15% (26)
10 3 Sam Laidlow FRA 08:12:33 00:46:15 04:32:44 05:23:59 02:48:34 48% +14% -38% (9)
11 8 Clement Mignon FRA 08:12:41 00:47:41 04:39:20 05:32:00 02:40:41 100% +0% -0% (3)
12 6 Leon Chevalier FRA 08:13:01 00:50:33 04:36:25 05:31:58 02:41:03 35% +42% -23% (5)
13 46 Matthew Marquardt USA 08:14:32 00:45:54 04:43:09 05:34:04 02:40:28 48% +0% -52% (2)
14 19 Gregory Barnaby ITA 08:15:00 00:46:02 04:45:53 05:36:55 02:38:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
15 27 Robert Wilkowiecki POL 08:17:06 00:46:12 04:43:36 05:34:47 02:42:19 3% +41% -56% (8)
16 34 Leonard Arnold GER 08:17:29 00:49:03 04:47:33 05:41:36 02:35:53 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
17 21 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:17:38 00:49:06 04:31:09 05:25:15 02:52:23 65% +22% -13% (31)
18 14 Pieter Heemeryck BEL 08:18:12 00:46:23 04:43:04 05:34:27 02:43:45 17% +19% -65% (10)
19 16 Bradley Weiss ZAF 08:20:07 00:47:37 04:46:24 05:39:01 02:41:06 79% +0% -21% (4)
20 15 Kristian Hogenhaug DEN 08:20:46 00:47:39 04:38:32 05:31:11 02:49:35 66% +6% -28% (18)
21 17 Matt Hanson USA 08:20:46 00:49:36 04:48:12 05:42:49 02:37:57 73% +4% -23% (24)
22 18 Mathias Petersen DEN 08:23:04 00:47:09 04:46:47 05:38:55 02:44:09 79% +0% -21% (11)
23 20 Chris Leiferman USA 08:23:09 00:50:49 04:42:37 05:38:26 02:44:43 74% +0% -26% (10)
24 28 Franz Loeschke GER 08:24:17 00:49:12 04:48:10 05:42:22 02:41:55 89% +0% -11% (5)
25 50 Remi Conte FRA 08:25:14 00:51:14 04:49:39 05:45:53 02:39:21 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
26 25 Mike Phillips NZL 08:25:53 00:47:02 04:44:25 05:36:28 02:49:25 59% +31% -10% (14)
27 43 Georg Enzenberger AUT 08:27:02 00:47:58 04:42:23 05:35:21 02:51:41 48% +0% -52% (4)
28 30 Jonas Hoffmann GER 08:27:45 00:48:04 04:51:01 05:44:05 02:43:40 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
29 45 Reinaldo Colucci BRA 08:28:17 00:47:08 04:48:47 05:40:56 02:47:21 64% +13% -22% (13)
30 39 Kristian Grue NOR 08:30:01 00:50:49 04:50:11 05:46:00 02:44:01 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
31 37 Fernando Toldi BRA 08:30:07 00:47:08 04:50:08 05:42:16 02:47:51 81% +19% -0% (5)
32 23 Arnaud Guilloux FRA 08:30:22 00:48:03 04:44:51 05:37:54 02:52:28 49% +35% -16% (12)
33 41 Andre Lopes BRA 08:31:21 00:47:29 04:50:37 05:43:06 02:48:15 100% +0% -0% (4)
34 35 Brent McMahon CAN 08:31:50 00:47:36 04:50:29 05:43:06 02:48:44 78% +0% -22% (19)
35 42 Maximilian Hammerle AUT 08:42:06 00:54:06 04:54:01 05:53:06 02:49:00 88% +0% -12% (11)
36 40 Adam Feigh USA 08:44:25 00:50:32 04:54:39 05:50:11 02:54:14 67% +18% -15% (17)
37 51 Ben Phillips NZL 08:44:53 00:48:13 04:56:37 05:49:50 02:55:03 100% +0% -0% (6)
38 48 Benjamin Hill AUS 08:49:46 00:53:17 04:45:39 05:43:56 03:05:50 n/a (1 IM Pro race)
39 44 Tuan Chun Chang TWN 09:03:18 00:46:39 05:05:13 05:56:53 03:06:25 49% +51% -0% (2)
40 52 Nathan Dortmann FRA 09:05:16 00:55:42 05:07:19 06:08:01 02:57:15 51% +0% -49% (2)

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