Challenge Almere 2014 (Sep 13th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Almere is the second-oldest Ironman-distance race. It has been a member of the challenge family since 2013.

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2013	Bart Colpaert (BEL)	08:34:50	Susan Blatt (GER)	09:24:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Bart Colpaert	BEL	00:46:14	04:46:34	02:57:24	08:34:50
2	Georg Potrebitsch	GER	00:49:20	04:49:23	03:00:12	08:43:19
3	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	00:53:07	04:42:55	03:05:03	08:45:48

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Susan Blatt	GER	00:56:19	05:06:12	03:17:25	09:24:40
2	Irene Kinnegim	NED	01:07:27	05:14:35	03:17:17	09:47:37
3	Kathrin Walther	GER	00:56:44	05:23:27	03:40:01	10:07:44

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:34:50	Bart Colpaert	2013-09-14
Swim	overall	00:46:10	Dylan McNeice	2013-09-14
Bike	overall	04:42:55	Erik-Simon Strijk	2013-09-14
Run	overall	02:57:24	Bart Colpaert	2013-09-14
Total	female	09:24:40	Susan Blatt	2013-09-14
Swim	female	00:51:37	Hillary Biscay	2013-09-14
Bike	female	05:06:12	Susan Blatt	2013-09-14
Run	female	03:17:17	Irene Kinnegim	2013-09-14

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Almere is 11:13.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Almere

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2013	11:13	00:18	01:44	03:49	16	11:13	00:18	01:44	03:49

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	4	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:33:10	08:44:03	00:49:48	04:43:09	03:04:05	(46)
2	6	Gerrit Schellens	BEL	08:34:51	08:45:46	00:53:25	04:57:39	02:46:36	(49)
3	8	Dejan Patrcevic	CRO	08:39:57	08:50:59	00:52:14	04:58:05	02:54:39	(63)
4	2	Georg Potrebitsch	GER	08:47:33	08:58:44	00:49:19	04:54:11	03:13:06	93
5	5	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:49:36	09:00:50	00:55:10	04:52:38	03:03:45	104
6	11	Sergio Marques	POR	08:49:59	09:01:13	00:55:07	05:01:41	02:58:59	109
7	1	Bart Colpaert	BEL	08:50:03	09:01:17	00:46:55	04:46:44	03:05:38	(110)
8	7	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	08:53:05	09:04:23	00:48:34	04:55:51	03:09:52	120
9	9	Tuukka Miettinen	FIN	09:00:21	09:11:49	00:55:34	04:54:28	03:06:22	(153)
10	21	David Naesvik	SWE	09:03:36	09:15:08	00:55:11	04:48:47	03:16:38	161
11	3	Dirk Wijnalda	NED	09:04:52	09:16:25	00:57:00	05:00:07	03:06:33	171
12	10	Thomas Naasz	NED	09:24:53	09:36:52	00:55:35	05:01:20	03:18:32	(248)
13	15	Thijs Koelen	NED	09:29:15	09:41:19	00:51:50	04:54:33	03:26:33	(267)
14	19	Evgeniy Nikitin	RUS	09:51:16	10:03:48	00:51:04	05:10:48	03:45:08	351
15	18	Georgy Kaurov	RUS	09:59:52	10:12:35	00:50:24	05:00:19	03:33:54	(376)
16	14	Diederik Scheltinga	NED	11:29:29	11:44:06	00:51:44	05:23:30	04:52:03	(455)
	12	Alexey Brylev	RUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	13	Vladimir Savic	SRB	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	16	Bart Candel	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	17	Valentin Zasypkin	RUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	20	Jon Thorp	NOR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	22	Aleksandr Kocetkov	LTU	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	23	Margus Nomm	EST	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	24	Jan Jakubicek	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	25	Petr Minarik	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	51	Heleen Bij De Vaate	NED	09:47:37	10:00:05	01:05:40	05:16:11	03:29:31	75
2	53	Kristin Lie	NOR	10:04:14	10:17:03	01:12:06	05:18:06	03:29:02	103
3	52	Celia Kuch	GER	10:12:28	10:25:27	01:03:20	05:25:28	03:38:10	123
4	59	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	10:27:52	10:41:11	01:10:18	05:31:08	03:30:48	(142)
5	56	Tineke Van den Berg	NED	10:29:42	10:43:03	01:09:09	05:11:29	03:40:30	(142)
6	54	Vanessa Pereira	POR	10:35:28	10:48:57	01:02:01	05:39:14	03:41:40	148
7	57	Rahel Bellinga	NED	10:50:03	11:03:50	01:02:49	05:18:42	04:00:32	(157)
8	60	Zeljka Saban	CRO	11:00:33	11:14:34	00:56:00	06:04:53	03:59:46	(159)
9	55	Corine Nelen	NED	11:12:55	11:27:11	01:01:31	05:32:12	04:10:57	(160)
	58	Victoria Gill	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	61	Anna Kusch	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Bart Colpaert is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition by last year’s second finisher Georg Potrebitsch and by Markus Fachbach who is my pre-race favorite:

• Markus Fachbach: 33% (2-1)
• Georg Potrebitsch: 23% (3-1)
• Bart Colpaert: 14% (6-1)
• Sergio Marques: 10% (9-1)
• Gerrit Schellens: 10% (9-1)
• Dejan Patrcevic: 6% (16-1)
• Petr Vabrousek: 2% (58-1)

Female Race Participants

The women’s race appears to be a close call between Kristin Lie (solid racer who will probably have to chase after the swim) and veteran Heleen Bij De Vaate. Celia Kuch will be in the mix early on but will probably fall back on the bike and run:

• Kristin Lie: 40% (1-1)
• Heleen Bij De Vaate: 34% (2-1)
• Celia Kuch: 22% (3-1)
• Lina-Kristin Schink: 2% (55-1)