Challenge Atlantic City 2014 (June 29th) – Predictions

Update (June 22nd): Jessie Donavan tweeted that she is not racing.

Update (June 24th): April Gellatly, Amy Javens and Kathryn Thomas are still on the start list but are rumored not to be starting. Anna Cleaver is no longer on the list. 

This is the first race on this course, therefore we don’t have previous winners, a course rating or expected finishing times.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Chris McCormack AUS n/a 08:28:15 00:48:39 04:43:37 02:52:34 (14)
2 Fredrik Croneborg SWE n/a 08:48:53 00:51:59 04:52:18 02:58:02 70
3 Petr Vabrousek CZE n/a 08:58:11 00:54:53 04:52:52 03:03:35 117
4 Andres Castillo COL n/a 09:05:22 00:47:47 04:53:49 03:20:00 (153)
5 Thomas Gerlach USA n/a 09:05:43 00:55:26 04:47:53 03:16:05 156
6 Ryan Cain CAN n/a 09:08:07 00:55:28 05:00:29 03:06:14 165
7 Scott Defilippis USA n/a 09:08:17 00:55:49 05:01:48 03:03:44 166
8 Chad Holderbaum USA n/a 09:09:19 00:55:22 04:53:31 03:12:34 171
9 Dan Mcintosh USA n/a 09:13:59 00:52:04 04:53:04 03:15:44 189
10 Ryan Bates USA n/a 09:23:14 00:52:30 04:50:05 03:20:39 (216)
11 Adam O’Meara CAN n/a 09:25:24 00:54:30 05:08:53 03:13:09 226
12 Eneko Elosegui ESP n/a 09:28:44 00:58:52 04:55:49 03:25:02 241
13 Kyle Pawlaczyk USA n/a 09:31:19 00:55:00 05:08:24 03:22:54 250
14 Nathan Killam CAN n/a 09:36:41 00:56:38 05:09:27 03:06:33 (270)
15 Christopher Bagg USA n/a 09:37:58 00:54:02 04:57:52 03:36:11 276
16 Jim Lubinski USA n/a 09:41:29 01:02:47 05:14:58 03:18:58 293
17 James Lamastra USA n/a 09:44:35 00:51:43 05:00:03 03:47:46 304
18 John Hirsch USA n/a 09:45:35 00:55:26 05:16:00 03:24:32 310
19 Tom Wood USA n/a 09:52:46 00:57:00 05:17:16 03:17:28 (337)
20 Simon Malo CAN n/a 09:53:54 00:56:47 05:03:47 03:41:56 (340)
21 Jeff Paul USA n/a 09:59:19 01:01:41 05:11:32 03:39:26 (360)
22 Aubrey Aldy USA n/a 10:11:49 01:05:13 05:31:25 03:14:46 (386)
23 Arland Macasieb PHI n/a 10:19:54 01:03:20 05:27:23 03:44:32 411
Jack Braconnier USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Nicholas Brodnicki USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Jeremy Howard USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Vincent Johnson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Jessie Donavan USA n/a 09:37:02 01:06:48 05:06:47 03:16:40 30
2 Carrie Lester AUS n/a 09:38:25 00:55:25 05:12:49 03:23:30 37
3 April Gellatly (?) USA n/a 10:11:00 00:56:27 05:28:39 03:38:02 105
4 Laurel Wassner USA n/a 10:11:34 00:50:39 05:50:15 03:10:00 (106)
5 Jacqui Gordon USA n/a 10:14:55 01:00:22 05:28:43 03:38:26 116
6 Jocelyn Cornman USA n/a 10:22:42 01:00:32 05:39:22 03:26:21 (129)
7 Meghan Newcomer USA n/a 10:28:46 00:57:09 05:41:44 03:37:37 (135)
8 Amy Javens (?) USA n/a 10:33:15 01:06:09 05:23:12 03:46:12 (138)
9 Natasha Van der Merwe USA n/a 10:37:19 01:04:13 05:27:15 03:57:41 140
10 Alyssa Godesky USA n/a 10:45:08 01:04:30 05:38:47 03:40:57 (147)
Kathryn Thomas (?) USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
Anna Cleaver NZL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Chris McCormack hasn’t won an Ironman since Cairns 2011. He is a Challenge ambassador, so he’ll probably want to leave a good impression here. Fredrik Croneborg might be considered the front runner, Thomas Gerlach is a late addition to the start list with good chances for a pay day.

  • Chris McCormack: 45% (1-1)
  • Fredrik Croneborg: 22% (4-1)
  • Thomas Gerlach: 8% (12-1)
  • Petr Vabrousek: 8% (12-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 7% (13-1)
  • Andres Castillo: 5% (20-1)
  • Dan Mcintosh: 4% (26-1)

Female Race Participants

The race looks to be a two horse race between Carrie Lester and Jessie Donavan. I’m a bit surprised to see Jessie on the start list – my guess was that she is focused on her Kona build.  Jessie has tweeted that she won’t be racing. Closest to these two is Anna Cleaver, probably better known under her maiden name Anna Ross who is coming back from foot surgery.  (I mixed up the Anna’s here .. Anna Cleaver finished the shortened IM Melbourne in 2013, and is different from Anna Russell nee Ross. Thanks to Dana for pointing out my error.)

  • Carrie Lester: 46% (1-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 45% (1-1)
  • Anna Cleaver: 5% (19-1)
  • April Gellatly: 2% (26-1)
  • Jacqui Gordon: 2% (42-1)
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