Challenge Henley 2013 – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:48:39 04:54:53 02:42:43 08:29:31
2 Joel Jameson GBR 00:57:48 04:47:20 02:42:10 08:31:03
3 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 00:55:57 04:49:07 02:44:26 08:33:41

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Gina Crawford NZL 00:53:05 05:11:14 02:58:34 09:08:05
2 Bella Bayliss GBR 00:56:16 05:25:42 03:12:22 09:40:23
3 Yvette Grice GBR 00:55:33 05:41:51 03:14:36 09:56:56

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:29:31 Stephen Bayliss 2012-09-16
Swim overall 00:48:01 Stephen Bayliss 2011-09-18
Bike overall 04:43:13 Aaron Farlow 2011-09-18
Run overall 02:42:10 Joel Jameson 2012-09-16
Total female 09:08:05 Gina Crawford 2012-09-16
Swim female 00:53:05 Gina Crawford 2012-09-16
Bike female 05:11:14 Gina Crawford 2012-09-16
Run female 02:58:34 Gina Crawford 2012-09-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Henley is 03:12.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Henley

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 -01:23 00:22 -00:50 00:18 14 -01:23 00:22 -00:50 00:18
2012 07:47 -00:14 00:04 11:00 13 03:12 00:04 -00:23 05:39

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Tom Lowe GBR 08:31:40 08:34:43 00:54:41 04:39:16 02:56:24 25
2 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:51:05 08:54:15 00:47:55 04:50:12 03:06:35 90
3 Joel Jameson GBR 08:52:41 08:55:52 00:57:01 04:57:16 03:00:18 102
4 Tuukka Miettinen FIN 08:56:39 08:59:51 00:55:40 04:52:36 03:07:35 118
5 Chris Goodfellow GBR 09:18:17 09:21:37 00:54:18 04:54:36 03:29:28 184
6 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:32:37 09:36:02 00:59:50 05:00:11 03:25:04 229
7 Mark White GBR 09:35:37 09:39:03 00:59:06 05:14:35 03:19:56 244

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Bella Bayliss GBR 09:42:32 09:46:00 00:55:55 05:19:51 03:23:33 53
2 Julia Grant NZL 09:54:15 09:57:48 00:57:14 05:23:12 03:27:52 80
3 Yvette Grice GBR 09:58:56 10:02:30 00:55:21 05:36:03 03:25:22 87
4 Emma Richards GBR 10:39:07 10:42:56 01:04:04 06:01:52 03:31:19 132

Winning Odds

Similar to other Challenge races, Henley does not have a separate Pro or “Elite” category. They offer prize money to anyone who places in the overall Top 10. This makes it a bit tricky to find out the Pros racing – all I have to go on is a by matching names, so I may have missed some Pros starting in Henley.

Male Race Participants

After a disappointing 2013 season so far, Tom Lowe is looking for a good result in Henley while Stephen Bayliss tries to continue his string of top results in the British long distance races:

  • Stephen Bayliss: 31% (2-1)
  • Tom Lowe: 30% (2-1)
  • Joel Jameson: 22% (4-1)
  • Tuukka Miettinen: 15% (6-1)

Female Race Participants

Bella is the clear favorite on the women’s side, I’m sure she’d love to join her husband on the top podium spot in her last professional Ironman-distance race:

  • Bella Bayliss: 51% (1-1)
  • Yvette Grice: 35% (2-1)
  • Julia Grant: 10% (9-1)

Results for Tom Lowe (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2012-10-13 01:01:43 04:50:24 02:57:00 08:53:42 08:43:24 08:34:43 23
IM Austria 2012-07-01 00:57:06 04:30:02 02:58:57 08:31:15 08:37:53 08:31:45 6
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 00:58:55 04:26:27 02:58:54 08:29:02 08:29:02 08:28:58 11
IM Austria 2011-07-03 00:52:06 04:29:05 02:44:48 08:11:30 08:34:27 08:28:55 4
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 00:56:37 04:22:51 02:48:12 08:11:44 08:22:20 08:22:20 3

Results for Stephen Bayliss (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2013-08-04 00:44:03 04:56:50 03:04:57 08:49:25 08:43:53 08:54:15 2
Challenge Roth 2013-07-14 00:46:03 04:39:56 03:09:00 08:38:00 08:55:29 08:55:01 14
IM Lanzarote 2013-05-18 00:47:45 05:18:58 03:47:40 10:00:31 09:40:42 08:54:59 10
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 00:48:01 04:35:04 04:19:27 09:44:39 10:06:31 08:51:12 45
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:48:39 04:54:53 02:42:43 08:29:31 08:36:51 08:45:37 1
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:47:24 04:32:15 02:50:52 08:13:01 08:24:55 08:46:18 5
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 00:48:01 05:05:40 02:54:07 08:53:37 08:37:15 08:48:02 2
Challenge Henley 2011-09-18 00:48:01 04:46:07 03:07:27 08:44:31 08:43:11 08:48:57 4
Challenge Vichy 2011-08-21 00:50:20 04:36:27 03:14:48 08:45:28 08:39:24 08:49:23 1
IM Copenhagen 2011-08-01 00:45:22 04:35:29 03:07:12 08:34:52 08:57:47 08:50:10 8
IM Austria 2011-07-03 00:46:41 04:35:08 02:50:29 08:16:47 08:39:59 08:49:32 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 09:04:07 09:13:56 08:50:23 18
IM UK 2010-08-01 00:43:37 05:09:32 02:49:35 08:46:19 08:44:05 08:48:28 2
IM Austria 2010-07-04 00:47:41 04:35:01 03:04:31 08:31:07 08:41:21 08:48:49 6
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 00:47:39 04:48:32 03:01:12 08:40:28 08:45:28 08:49:27 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:50:58 05:08:13 03:16:55 09:19:56 09:07:20 08:49:48 45
IM UK 2009-08-02 00:51:13 05:04:50 02:47:43 08:48:30 08:49:51 08:48:22 2
IM Austria 2009-07-05 00:47:32 04:32:32 02:53:20 08:17:06 08:31:13 08:48:15 3
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 00:50:13 05:11:24 02:54:38 09:02:15 08:53:10 08:49:46 5
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 00:47:38 04:48:39 03:07:42 08:47:26 09:02:19 08:49:27 4
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 00:47:55 04:44:14 03:02:15 08:38:29 08:45:47 08:48:10 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:51:41 04:51:58 03:02:01 08:49:38 08:42:35 08:48:25 18
IM UK 2008-09-07 00:45:55 05:09:05 02:56:05 08:53:59 08:51:03 08:49:03 1
IM Austria 2008-07-13 00:46:03 04:39:38 02:44:33 08:13:53 08:29:59 08:48:49 2
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 00:47:29 04:38:20 02:51:02 08:18:23 08:29:25 08:51:10 1
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 00:47:08 04:49:48 02:55:29 08:37:03 08:42:33 08:54:03 4
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 00:48:18 04:35:09 02:54:23 08:17:50 08:40:02 08:55:44 5
IM Florida 2007-11-03 00:49:21 04:41:14 02:57:19 08:30:59 08:49:28 08:58:13 4
IM UK 2007-08-19 00:47:04 04:57:01 02:51:10 08:38:09 08:46:26 08:59:49 2
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 00:49:15 04:54:05 02:53:42 08:37:02 08:46:40 09:02:37 5
IM Florida 2006-11-04 00:50:34 04:53:23 02:56:42 08:43:41 08:55:47 09:06:28 4
IM Brasil 2006-05-28 00:45:46 04:47:49 03:01:27 08:35:01 08:49:18 09:09:14 4
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 00:49:29 04:44:03 03:23:48 09:00:38 09:03:16 09:15:09 14
IM Florida 2005-11-05 00:49:18 04:48:36 03:02:18 08:47:06 09:00:23 09:19:54 6
IM UK 2005-08-21 00:45:45 05:25:30 03:01:03 09:15:14 09:15:14 09:30:35 4
IM Lanzarote 2005-06-04 00:49:51 05:28:37 03:25:36 09:46:55 09:46:55 09:46:55 12

Results for Joel Jameson (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2013-08-04 00:52:33 05:10:43 02:52:23 08:59:36 08:53:58 08:55:52 5
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:57:48 04:47:20 02:42:10 08:31:03 08:38:25 08:56:26 2
IM Coeur d’Alene 2012-06-24 01:01:36 05:05:37 02:59:26 09:09:52 09:10:04 09:06:02 6
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:58:28 04:53:21 03:03:44 08:59:28 09:07:14 09:04:30 23
IM Florida 2011-11-05 00:56:46 04:36:28 02:56:55 08:35:31 08:55:40 09:03:01 11
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 00:52:57 05:11:27 02:51:12 09:01:48 08:51:16 09:10:03 4
IM UK 2005-08-21 00:57:57 05:46:56 03:57:34 10:48:13 10:48:13 10:48:13 12

Results for Tuukka Miettinen (FIN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:55:57 04:49:07 02:44:26 08:33:41 08:41:05 08:59:51 3
IM Wales 2011-09-11 00:51:42 05:28:46 03:15:52 09:46:16 09:14:22 09:05:33 10
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 00:55:44 04:54:28 03:16:57 09:12:16 09:09:02 09:02:59 7
Challenge Barcelona 2010-10-03 00:55:02 04:41:22 03:14:46 08:54:56 09:09:31 09:00:56 20
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 00:52:38 04:55:54 03:01:29 08:57:17 08:50:23 08:57:16 5
Challenge Barcelona 2009-10-04 00:57:27 04:29:05 03:01:26 08:32:29 08:52:06 09:01:34 7
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 01:01:33 04:47:24 03:09:41 09:02:49 09:11:50 09:11:50 5

Results for Chris Goodfellow (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Copenhagen 2013-08-18 00:52:59 04:39:52 03:21:56 08:59:10 09:23:59 09:21:37 14
Challenge Roth 2013-07-14 00:54:47 04:48:37 03:45:30 09:32:28 09:51:47 09:20:40 25
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:54:46 04:50:18 03:03:49 08:53:50 09:01:31 09:00:40 7
IM Copenhagen 2012-08-11 00:51:13 04:41:00 03:10:34 08:47:06 08:59:47 08:59:47 8

Results for Eneko Elosegui (ESP)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Taiwan 2013-05-04 01:02:26 04:41:29 03:18:01 09:06:46 09:19:08 09:36:02 8
IM UK 2012-07-22 00:59:17 05:10:56 03:23:18 09:38:03 09:33:04 09:39:38 6
IM Brasil 2012-05-27 00:55:57 04:47:37 03:50:07 09:33:41 09:51:46 09:40:59 18
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 01:02:09 04:38:30 03:10:08 08:54:57 09:06:29 09:38:21 13
IM UK 2010-08-01 00:53:22 05:33:27 03:06:21 09:38:53 09:36:26 09:44:18 7
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 00:57:43 05:01:52 03:14:04 09:21:08 09:13:55 09:45:56 14
Challenge Barcelona 2009-10-04 01:03:56 04:32:28 03:12:54 08:53:49 09:14:15 09:53:41 20
IM UK 2009-08-02 01:05:22 05:22:58 03:02:01 09:36:48 09:38:16 10:03:40 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 01:00:08 05:23:58 03:28:38 09:59:58 09:49:55 10:11:45 26
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 01:02:16 04:53:24 04:44:02 10:44:38 10:53:42 10:21:07 24
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 01:03:07 05:18:44 03:33:25 10:00:09 09:57:24 09:59:01 17
IM UK 2007-08-19 01:02:33 05:18:56 03:24:50 09:51:39 10:01:07 10:01:07 23

Results for Mark White (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2013-07-14 00:58:35 05:02:10 03:17:06 09:23:06 09:42:06 09:39:03 23
Challenge Barcelona 2009-10-04 01:00:11 04:52:47 03:10:42 09:08:59 09:29:59 09:29:59 25

Results for Bella Bayliss (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM UK 2013-08-04 00:53:48 05:38:38 03:55:49 10:34:34 10:27:56 09:46:00 4
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:56:16 05:25:42 03:12:22 09:40:23 09:48:45 09:40:43 2
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 00:59:45 05:05:26 03:16:50 09:25:54 09:32:03 09:39:51 2
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 00:56:12 05:47:54 03:14:06 10:06:12 09:47:36 09:40:45 2
IM UK 2010-08-01 00:50:17 05:48:26 03:22:43 10:06:52 10:04:18 09:39:54 2
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 00:52:38 05:41:15 03:34:43 10:16:47 10:08:52 09:37:58 3
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 00:50:01 05:13:32 03:14:34 09:22:34 09:26:43 09:35:28 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07 04:56:20 03:11:08 09:13:52 09:31:02 09:36:08 3
IM UK 2009-08-02 00:59:20 05:26:18 03:01:09 09:34:00 09:35:28 09:36:32 1
IM Austria 2009-07-05 00:54:04 04:49:42 03:00:21 08:50:13 09:05:16 09:36:38 1
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 00:56:00 05:46:37 03:04:06 09:54:58 09:45:00 09:39:20 1
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 00:55:10 05:17:41 03:22:28 09:41:04 09:49:15 09:38:49 5
IM Florida 2008-11-01 00:54:54 04:59:05 03:08:07 09:07:48 09:29:26 09:37:50 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:59:02 05:21:46 03:08:31 09:34:08 09:26:30 09:38:37 7
IM UK 2008-09-07 00:53:26 05:33:38 03:16:27 09:49:07 09:45:52 09:39:50 1
IM Austria 2008-07-13 00:53:11 04:48:13 03:04:50 08:51:17 09:08:36 09:39:10 2
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 00:56:17 05:48:14 03:09:20 10:02:30 09:49:59 09:42:42 1
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 00:55:38 05:19:01 03:10:56 09:27:48 09:40:23 09:41:47 1
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 00:53:11 05:11:00 03:15:34 09:25:33 09:31:34 09:41:59 4
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 00:55:33 05:05:13 03:13:38 09:14:24 09:39:07 09:43:34 3
IM Florida 2007-11-03 00:55:31 05:00:54 03:11:58 09:13:34 09:33:35 09:44:19 4
IM UK 2007-08-19 00:49:45 05:31:16 03:10:01 09:36:13 09:45:26 09:46:23 1
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 00:58:03 05:09:04 03:13:02 09:20:09 09:30:35 09:46:36 3
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 01:07:58 05:25:04 03:15:37 09:48:41 09:38:18 09:50:49 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 00:58:27 05:14:02 03:11:40 09:28:28 09:41:36 09:55:00 1
IM Brasil 2006-05-28 00:54:43 05:12:19 03:32:13 09:39:14 09:55:18 10:00:43 4
IM Florida 2005-11-05 01:02:21 05:05:02 03:22:04 09:33:09 09:47:35 10:04:00 1
IM UK 2005-08-21 00:56:39 05:55:28 03:25:21 10:21:25 10:21:25 10:21:25 3

Results for Julia Grant (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Copenhagen 2013-08-18 00:56:37 05:11:35 03:19:01 09:33:42 10:00:06 09:57:48 6
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 00:57:35 05:24:19 03:31:27 10:01:49 09:54:11 09:54:11 5

Results for Yvette Grice (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2013-07-14 00:54:38 05:10:44 03:09:30 09:18:42 09:37:33 10:02:30 6
IM Los Cabos 2013-03-17 00:56:42 05:35:04 03:27:55 10:04:30 10:00:05 10:05:26 12
IM Florida 2012-11-03 00:58:36 05:08:30 03:16:34 09:28:53 09:46:02 10:06:05 9
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:55:33 05:41:51 03:14:36 09:56:56 10:05:32 10:08:30 3
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:53:15 05:16:16 03:18:31 09:31:53 09:45:42 10:08:54 10
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 00:56:45 05:24:14 03:27:02 09:53:33 09:57:01 10:12:13 7
Challenge Henley 2011-09-18 00:55:19 05:32:05 03:15:01 09:47:35 09:46:05 10:14:17 1
IM UK 2011-07-31 00:50:32 05:39:33 03:02:46 09:37:32 09:46:39 10:18:27 3
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 00:57:24 05:19:50 03:37:39 09:59:28 10:11:23 10:23:43 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 01:01:41 05:40:24 03:27:19 10:14:49 10:14:18 10:25:55 28
IM UK 2010-08-01 00:50:04 06:03:14 03:02:04 10:01:03 09:58:30 10:28:02 1
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 00:53:51 06:00:03 03:21:12 10:22:39 10:14:39 10:34:14 6
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 00:58:16 05:57:34 03:38:39 10:41:24 10:41:58 10:39:04 8
IM France 2009-06-28 00:56:22 05:52:30 03:27:53 10:24:06 10:31:17 10:38:20 8
IM UK 2008-09-07 10:35:08 10:31:38 10:40:33 4
IM France 2008-06-22 00:54:36 06:19:39 03:27:49 10:49:08 10:53:16 10:43:31 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 01:00:18 05:50:00 03:42:04 10:37:51 10:35:18 10:39:04 38
IM UK 2007-08-19 00:49:44 06:08:09 03:22:52 10:25:42 10:35:42 10:41:20 5
IM UK 2006-08-16 00:51:04 05:52:17 03:50:51 10:37:39 10:48:51 10:48:51 7

Results for Emma Richards (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Henley 2011-09-18 01:03:40 06:02:56 03:31:01 10:44:35 10:42:56 10:42:56 7
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