Challenge Henley 2013 – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	00:48:39	04:54:53	02:42:43	08:29:31
2	Joel Jameson	GBR	00:57:48	04:47:20	02:42:10	08:31:03
3	Tuukka Miettinen	FIN	00:55:57	04:49:07	02:44:26	08:33:41

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Gina Crawford	NZL	00:53:05	05:11:14	02:58:34	09:08:05
2	Bella Bayliss	GBR	00:56:16	05:25:42	03:12:22	09:40:23
3	Yvette Grice	GBR	00:55:33	05:41:51	03:14:36	09:56:56

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:29:31	Stephen Bayliss	2012-09-16
Swim	overall	00:48:01	Stephen Bayliss	2011-09-18
Bike	overall	04:43:13	Aaron Farlow	2011-09-18
Run	overall	02:42:10	Joel Jameson	2012-09-16
Total	female	09:08:05	Gina Crawford	2012-09-16
Swim	female	00:53:05	Gina Crawford	2012-09-16
Bike	female	05:11:14	Gina Crawford	2012-09-16
Run	female	02:58:34	Gina Crawford	2012-09-16

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Henley is 03:12.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Henley

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2011	-01:23	00:22	-00:50	00:18	14	-01:23	00:22	-00:50	00:18
2012	07:47	-00:14	00:04	11:00	13	03:12	00:04	-00:23	05:39

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Tom Lowe	GBR	08:31:40	08:34:43	00:54:41	04:39:16	02:56:24	25
2	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	08:51:05	08:54:15	00:47:55	04:50:12	03:06:35	90
3	Joel Jameson	GBR	08:52:41	08:55:52	00:57:01	04:57:16	03:00:18	102
4	Tuukka Miettinen	FIN	08:56:39	08:59:51	00:55:40	04:52:36	03:07:35	118
5	Chris Goodfellow	GBR	09:18:17	09:21:37	00:54:18	04:54:36	03:29:28	184
6	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:32:37	09:36:02	00:59:50	05:00:11	03:25:04	229
7	Mark White	GBR	09:35:37	09:39:03	00:59:06	05:14:35	03:19:56	244

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Bella Bayliss	GBR	09:42:32	09:46:00	00:55:55	05:19:51	03:23:33	53
2	Julia Grant	NZL	09:54:15	09:57:48	00:57:14	05:23:12	03:27:52	80
3	Yvette Grice	GBR	09:58:56	10:02:30	00:55:21	05:36:03	03:25:22	87
4	Emma Richards	GBR	10:39:07	10:42:56	01:04:04	06:01:52	03:31:19	132

Winning Odds

Similar to other Challenge races, Henley does not have a separate Pro or “Elite” category. They offer prize money to anyone who places in the overall Top 10. This makes it a bit tricky to find out the Pros racing – all I have to go on is a by matching names, so I may have missed some Pros starting in Henley.

Male Race Participants

After a disappointing 2013 season so far, Tom Lowe is looking for a good result in Henley while Stephen Bayliss tries to continue his string of top results in the British long distance races:

• Stephen Bayliss: 31% (2-1)
• Tom Lowe: 30% (2-1)
• Joel Jameson: 22% (4-1)
• Tuukka Miettinen: 15% (6-1)

Female Race Participants

Bella is the clear favorite on the women’s side, I’m sure she’d love to join her husband on the top podium spot in her last professional Ironman-distance race:

• Bella Bayliss: 51% (1-1)
• Yvette Grice: 35% (2-1)
• Julia Grant: 10% (9-1)

Results for Tom Lowe (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Hawaii	2012-10-13	01:01:43	04:50:24	02:57:00	08:53:42	08:43:24	08:34:43	23
IM Austria	2012-07-01	00:57:06	04:30:02	02:58:57	08:31:15	08:37:53	08:31:45	6
IM Hawaii	2011-10-15	00:58:55	04:26:27	02:58:54	08:29:02	08:29:02	08:28:58	11
IM Austria	2011-07-03	00:52:06	04:29:05	02:44:48	08:11:30	08:34:27	08:28:55	4
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	00:56:37	04:22:51	02:48:12	08:11:44	08:22:20	08:22:20	3

Results for Stephen Bayliss (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM UK	2013-08-04	00:44:03	04:56:50	03:04:57	08:49:25	08:43:53	08:54:15	2
Challenge Roth	2013-07-14	00:46:03	04:39:56	03:09:00	08:38:00	08:55:29	08:55:01	14
IM Lanzarote	2013-05-18	00:47:45	05:18:58	03:47:40	10:00:31	09:40:42	08:54:59	10
Challenge Barcelona	2012-09-30	00:48:01	04:35:04	04:19:27	09:44:39	10:06:31	08:51:12	45
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:48:39	04:54:53	02:42:43	08:29:31	08:36:51	08:45:37	1
Challenge Roth	2012-07-08	00:47:24	04:32:15	02:50:52	08:13:01	08:24:55	08:46:18	5
IM Lanzarote	2012-05-19	00:48:01	05:05:40	02:54:07	08:53:37	08:37:15	08:48:02	2
Challenge Henley	2011-09-18	00:48:01	04:46:07	03:07:27	08:44:31	08:43:11	08:48:57	4
Challenge Vichy	2011-08-21	00:50:20	04:36:27	03:14:48	08:45:28	08:39:24	08:49:23	1
IM Copenhagen	2011-08-01	00:45:22	04:35:29	03:07:12	08:34:52	08:57:47	08:50:10	8
IM Austria	2011-07-03	00:46:41	04:35:08	02:50:29	08:16:47	08:39:59	08:49:32	5
IM Cozumel	2010-11-28				09:04:07	09:13:56	08:50:23	18
IM UK	2010-08-01	00:43:37	05:09:32	02:49:35	08:46:19	08:44:05	08:48:28	2
IM Austria	2010-07-04	00:47:41	04:35:01	03:04:31	08:31:07	08:41:21	08:48:49	6
IM South Africa	2010-04-25	00:47:39	04:48:32	03:01:12	08:40:28	08:45:28	08:49:27	5
IM Hawaii	2009-10-10	00:50:58	05:08:13	03:16:55	09:19:56	09:07:20	08:49:48	45
IM UK	2009-08-02	00:51:13	05:04:50	02:47:43	08:48:30	08:49:51	08:48:22	2
IM Austria	2009-07-05	00:47:32	04:32:32	02:53:20	08:17:06	08:31:13	08:48:15	3
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	00:50:13	05:11:24	02:54:38	09:02:15	08:53:10	08:49:46	5
IM South Africa	2009-04-05	00:47:38	04:48:39	03:07:42	08:47:26	09:02:19	08:49:27	4
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	00:47:55	04:44:14	03:02:15	08:38:29	08:45:47	08:48:10	6
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	00:51:41	04:51:58	03:02:01	08:49:38	08:42:35	08:48:25	18
IM UK	2008-09-07	00:45:55	05:09:05	02:56:05	08:53:59	08:51:03	08:49:03	1
IM Austria	2008-07-13	00:46:03	04:39:38	02:44:33	08:13:53	08:29:59	08:48:49	2
IM South Africa	2008-04-13	00:47:29	04:38:20	02:51:02	08:18:23	08:29:25	08:51:10	1
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	00:47:08	04:49:48	02:55:29	08:37:03	08:42:33	08:54:03	4
IM Western Australia	2007-12-01	00:48:18	04:35:09	02:54:23	08:17:50	08:40:02	08:55:44	5
IM Florida	2007-11-03	00:49:21	04:41:14	02:57:19	08:30:59	08:49:28	08:58:13	4
IM UK	2007-08-19	00:47:04	04:57:01	02:51:10	08:38:09	08:46:26	08:59:49	2
IM Brasil	2007-05-27	00:49:15	04:54:05	02:53:42	08:37:02	08:46:40	09:02:37	5
IM Florida	2006-11-04	00:50:34	04:53:23	02:56:42	08:43:41	08:55:47	09:06:28	4
IM Brasil	2006-05-28	00:45:46	04:47:49	03:01:27	08:35:01	08:49:18	09:09:14	4
IM Arizona	2006-04-09	00:49:29	04:44:03	03:23:48	09:00:38	09:03:16	09:15:09	14
IM Florida	2005-11-05	00:49:18	04:48:36	03:02:18	08:47:06	09:00:23	09:19:54	6
IM UK	2005-08-21	00:45:45	05:25:30	03:01:03	09:15:14	09:15:14	09:30:35	4
IM Lanzarote	2005-06-04	00:49:51	05:28:37	03:25:36	09:46:55	09:46:55	09:46:55	12

Results for Joel Jameson (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM UK	2013-08-04	00:52:33	05:10:43	02:52:23	08:59:36	08:53:58	08:55:52	5
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:57:48	04:47:20	02:42:10	08:31:03	08:38:25	08:56:26	2
IM Coeur d’Alene	2012-06-24	01:01:36	05:05:37	02:59:26	09:09:52	09:10:04	09:06:02	6
IM Melbourne	2012-03-24	00:58:28	04:53:21	03:03:44	08:59:28	09:07:14	09:04:30	23
IM Florida	2011-11-05	00:56:46	04:36:28	02:56:55	08:35:31	08:55:40	09:03:01	11
IM Lanzarote	2011-05-21	00:52:57	05:11:27	02:51:12	09:01:48	08:51:16	09:10:03	4
IM UK	2005-08-21	00:57:57	05:46:56	03:57:34	10:48:13	10:48:13	10:48:13	12

Results for Tuukka Miettinen (FIN)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:55:57	04:49:07	02:44:26	08:33:41	08:41:05	08:59:51	3
IM Wales	2011-09-11	00:51:42	05:28:46	03:15:52	09:46:16	09:14:22	09:05:33	10
IM New Zealand	2011-03-05	00:55:44	04:54:28	03:16:57	09:12:16	09:09:02	09:02:59	7
Challenge Barcelona	2010-10-03	00:55:02	04:41:22	03:14:46	08:54:56	09:09:31	09:00:56	20
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	00:52:38	04:55:54	03:01:29	08:57:17	08:50:23	08:57:16	5
Challenge Barcelona	2009-10-04	00:57:27	04:29:05	03:01:26	08:32:29	08:52:06	09:01:34	7
IM Coeur d’Alene	2009-06-21	01:01:33	04:47:24	03:09:41	09:02:49	09:11:50	09:11:50	5

Results for Chris Goodfellow (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Copenhagen	2013-08-18	00:52:59	04:39:52	03:21:56	08:59:10	09:23:59	09:21:37	14
Challenge Roth	2013-07-14	00:54:47	04:48:37	03:45:30	09:32:28	09:51:47	09:20:40	25
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:54:46	04:50:18	03:03:49	08:53:50	09:01:31	09:00:40	7
IM Copenhagen	2012-08-11	00:51:13	04:41:00	03:10:34	08:47:06	08:59:47	08:59:47	8

Results for Eneko Elosegui (ESP)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Taiwan	2013-05-04	01:02:26	04:41:29	03:18:01	09:06:46	09:19:08	09:36:02	8
IM UK	2012-07-22	00:59:17	05:10:56	03:23:18	09:38:03	09:33:04	09:39:38	6
IM Brasil	2012-05-27	00:55:57	04:47:37	03:50:07	09:33:41	09:51:46	09:40:59	18
IM Arizona	2010-11-21	01:02:09	04:38:30	03:10:08	08:54:57	09:06:29	09:38:21	13
IM UK	2010-08-01	00:53:22	05:33:27	03:06:21	09:38:53	09:36:26	09:44:18	7
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	00:57:43	05:01:52	03:14:04	09:21:08	09:13:55	09:45:56	14
Challenge Barcelona	2009-10-04	01:03:56	04:32:28	03:12:54	08:53:49	09:14:15	09:53:41	20
IM UK	2009-08-02	01:05:22	05:22:58	03:02:01	09:36:48	09:38:16	10:03:40	12
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	01:00:08	05:23:58	03:28:38	09:59:58	09:49:55	10:11:45	26
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	01:02:16	04:53:24	04:44:02	10:44:38	10:53:42	10:21:07	24
IM Lake Placid	2008-07-20	01:03:07	05:18:44	03:33:25	10:00:09	09:57:24	09:59:01	17
IM UK	2007-08-19	01:02:33	05:18:56	03:24:50	09:51:39	10:01:07	10:01:07	23

Results for Mark White (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Roth	2013-07-14	00:58:35	05:02:10	03:17:06	09:23:06	09:42:06	09:39:03	23
Challenge Barcelona	2009-10-04	01:00:11	04:52:47	03:10:42	09:08:59	09:29:59	09:29:59	25

Results for Bella Bayliss (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM UK	2013-08-04	00:53:48	05:38:38	03:55:49	10:34:34	10:27:56	09:46:00	4
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:56:16	05:25:42	03:12:22	09:40:23	09:48:45	09:40:43	2
IM Switzerland	2012-07-15	00:59:45	05:05:26	03:16:50	09:25:54	09:32:03	09:39:51	2
IM Lanzarote	2012-05-19	00:56:12	05:47:54	03:14:06	10:06:12	09:47:36	09:40:45	2
IM UK	2010-08-01	00:50:17	05:48:26	03:22:43	10:06:52	10:04:18	09:39:54	2
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	00:52:38	05:41:15	03:34:43	10:16:47	10:08:52	09:37:58	3
IM Cozumel	2009-11-29	00:50:01	05:13:32	03:14:34	09:22:34	09:26:43	09:35:28	1
IM Florida	2009-11-07		04:56:20	03:11:08	09:13:52	09:31:02	09:36:08	3
IM UK	2009-08-02	00:59:20	05:26:18	03:01:09	09:34:00	09:35:28	09:36:32	1
IM Austria	2009-07-05	00:54:04	04:49:42	03:00:21	08:50:13	09:05:16	09:36:38	1
IM Lanzarote	2009-05-23	00:56:00	05:46:37	03:04:06	09:54:58	09:45:00	09:39:20	1
IM New Zealand	2009-03-07	00:55:10	05:17:41	03:22:28	09:41:04	09:49:15	09:38:49	5
IM Florida	2008-11-01	00:54:54	04:59:05	03:08:07	09:07:48	09:29:26	09:37:50	1
IM Hawaii	2008-10-11	00:59:02	05:21:46	03:08:31	09:34:08	09:26:30	09:38:37	7
IM UK	2008-09-07	00:53:26	05:33:38	03:16:27	09:49:07	09:45:52	09:39:50	1
IM Austria	2008-07-13	00:53:11	04:48:13	03:04:50	08:51:17	09:08:36	09:39:10	2
IM Lanzarote	2008-05-24	00:56:17	05:48:14	03:09:20	10:02:30	09:49:59	09:42:42	1
IM South Africa	2008-04-13	00:55:38	05:19:01	03:10:56	09:27:48	09:40:23	09:41:47	1
IM New Zealand	2008-03-01	00:53:11	05:11:00	03:15:34	09:25:33	09:31:34	09:41:59	4
IM Western Australia	2007-12-01	00:55:33	05:05:13	03:13:38	09:14:24	09:39:07	09:43:34	3
IM Florida	2007-11-03	00:55:31	05:00:54	03:11:58	09:13:34	09:33:35	09:44:19	4
IM UK	2007-08-19	00:49:45	05:31:16	03:10:01	09:36:13	09:45:26	09:46:23	1
IM Brasil	2007-05-27	00:58:03	05:09:04	03:13:02	09:20:09	09:30:35	09:46:36	3
IM South Africa	2007-03-18	01:07:58	05:25:04	03:15:37	09:48:41	09:38:18	09:50:49	3
IM Florida	2006-11-04	00:58:27	05:14:02	03:11:40	09:28:28	09:41:36	09:55:00	1
IM Brasil	2006-05-28	00:54:43	05:12:19	03:32:13	09:39:14	09:55:18	10:00:43	4
IM Florida	2005-11-05	01:02:21	05:05:02	03:22:04	09:33:09	09:47:35	10:04:00	1
IM UK	2005-08-21	00:56:39	05:55:28	03:25:21	10:21:25	10:21:25	10:21:25	3

Results for Julia Grant (NZL)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
IM Copenhagen	2013-08-18	00:56:37	05:11:35	03:19:01	09:33:42	10:00:06	09:57:48	6
Challenge Wanaka	2012-01-21	00:57:35	05:24:19	03:31:27	10:01:49	09:54:11	09:54:11	5

Results for Yvette Grice (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Roth	2013-07-14	00:54:38	05:10:44	03:09:30	09:18:42	09:37:33	10:02:30	6
IM Los Cabos	2013-03-17	00:56:42	05:35:04	03:27:55	10:04:30	10:00:05	10:05:26	12
IM Florida	2012-11-03	00:58:36	05:08:30	03:16:34	09:28:53	09:46:02	10:06:05	9
Challenge Henley	2012-09-16	00:55:33	05:41:51	03:14:36	09:56:56	10:05:32	10:08:30	3
Challenge Roth	2012-07-08	00:53:15	05:16:16	03:18:31	09:31:53	09:45:42	10:08:54	10
IM Western Australia	2011-12-04	00:56:45	05:24:14	03:27:02	09:53:33	09:57:01	10:12:13	7
Challenge Henley	2011-09-18	00:55:19	05:32:05	03:15:01	09:47:35	09:46:05	10:14:17	1
IM UK	2011-07-31	00:50:32	05:39:33	03:02:46	09:37:32	09:46:39	10:18:27	3
IM South Africa	2011-04-10	00:57:24	05:19:50	03:37:39	09:59:28	10:11:23	10:23:43	9
IM Hawaii	2010-10-09	01:01:41	05:40:24	03:27:19	10:14:49	10:14:18	10:25:55	28
IM UK	2010-08-01	00:50:04	06:03:14	03:02:04	10:01:03	09:58:30	10:28:02	1
IM Lanzarote	2010-05-22	00:53:51	06:00:03	03:21:12	10:22:39	10:14:39	10:34:14	6
IM Wisconsin	2009-09-13	00:58:16	05:57:34	03:38:39	10:41:24	10:41:58	10:39:04	8
IM France	2009-06-28	00:56:22	05:52:30	03:27:53	10:24:06	10:31:17	10:38:20	8
IM UK	2008-09-07				10:35:08	10:31:38	10:40:33	4
IM France	2008-06-22	00:54:36	06:19:39	03:27:49	10:49:08	10:53:16	10:43:31	10
IM Hawaii	2007-10-13	01:00:18	05:50:00	03:42:04	10:37:51	10:35:18	10:39:04	38
IM UK	2007-08-19	00:49:44	06:08:09	03:22:52	10:25:42	10:35:42	10:41:20	5
IM UK	2006-08-16	00:51:04	05:52:17	03:50:51	10:37:39	10:48:51	10:48:51	7

Results for Emma Richards (GBR)

Race	Date	Swim	Bike	Run	Total	Adjusted	Rating	Rank in Race
Challenge Henley	2011-09-18	01:03:40	06:02:56	03:31:01	10:44:35	10:42:56	10:42:56	7