Challenge Taiwan 2016 (May 7th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2013	Dylan McNeice (NZL)	08:16:21	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:23:15
2014	Dylan McNeice (NZL)	08:23:44	Britta Martin (NZL)	09:02:23

The full distance race took a break in 2015, but it’s back for 2016.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Dylan McNeice	NZL	00:46:11	04:29:02	03:03:40	08:23:44
2	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	00:52:26	04:31:33	02:56:09	08:24:22
3	Jason Shortis	AUS	00:55:37	04:26:56	02:57:39	08:25:32

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Britta Martin	NZL	00:58:21	04:54:37	03:04:16	09:02:23
2	Jessica Fleming	AUS	01:02:28	04:57:36	03:26:30	09:31:25
3	Belinda Granger	AUS	00:55:29	05:04:46	03:40:11	09:45:06

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:16:21	Dylan McNeice	2013-05-04
Swim	overall	00:46:11	Dylan McNeice	2014-04-19
Bike	overall	04:26:56	Jason Shortis	2014-04-19
Run	overall	02:52:33	Fredrik Croneborg	2013-05-04
Total	female	09:02:23	Britta Martin	2014-04-19
Swim	female	00:53:23	Hillary Biscay	2014-04-19
Bike	female	04:54:37	Britta Martin	2014-04-19
Run	female	03:04:16	Britta Martin	2014-04-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Taiwan is 15:36.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Taiwan

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2013	12:43	-04:40	12:28	05:14	14	12:43	-04:40	12:28	05:14
2014	18:29	-00:55	11:11	-01:06	17 of 22	15:36	-02:48	11:50	02:04

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	2	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	08:25:09	08:47:46	00:53:13	04:33:50	02:53:06	77% +5% -18% (9)	77
2	1	Dylan McNeice	NZL	08:26:58	08:55:40	00:47:03	04:33:16	03:01:38	48% +13% -39% (14)	108
3	5	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:44:11	09:01:02	00:58:11	04:38:51	03:02:09	80% +1% -19% (92)	124
4	3	Patrick Evoe	USA	08:44:56	08:57:58	00:59:05	04:35:55	03:04:56	84% +5% -11% (21)	114
	4	Tomas Racek	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	7	Jessica Fleming	AUS	09:33:58	09:54:54	01:03:18	04:59:54	03:25:46	84% +0% -16% (6)	76
2	9	Vanessa Murray	NZL	09:37:44	10:06:53	00:56:33	05:11:52	03:24:19	100% +0% -0% (1)	(103)
3	6	Kathrin Walther	GER	09:39:32	10:15:58	01:02:48	05:02:42	03:29:02	14% +42% -44% (7)	119
4	10	Marina Jurjevic	AUS	10:00:49	10:18:51	01:09:15	05:09:03	03:37:31	64% +0% -36% (5)	127
5	8	Kathryn Haesner	NZL	10:54:10	11:27:10	01:02:15	05:56:04	03:50:50	100% +0% -0% (1)	(181)
	11	Jenny Lee	TWN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated		(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Fredrik Croneborg: 57% (1-1)
• Dylan McNeice: 28% (3-1)
• Patrick Evoe: 8% (12-1)
• Petr Vabrousek: 7% (13-1)

Female Race Participants

• Jessica Fleming: 44% (1-1)
• Kathrin Walther: 40% (1-1)
• Marina Jurjevic: 7% (14-1)
• Vanessa Murray: 6% (17-1)