IM Arizona 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:48:47 04:20:54 02:46:09 07:59:38
2 Paul Amey GBR 00:48:47 04:22:37 02:45:55 08:01:29
3 Victor Zyemtsev USA 00:52:17 04:35:02 02:43:30 08:14:36

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Leanda Cave GBR 00:52:08 04:51:06 02:58:51 08:49:00
2 Linsey Corbin USA 00:57:00 04:50:11 03:02:27 08:54:33
3 Meredith Kessler USA 00:51:46 04:53:36 03:10:18 09:00:14

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:59:38 Eneko Llanos 2011-11-19
Swim overall 00:46:02 Kieran Doe 2008-11-23
Bike overall 04:20:54 Eneko Llanos 2011-11-19
Run overall 02:43:30 Victor Zyemtsev 2011-11-19
Total female 08:36:13 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Swim female 00:48:13 Leanda Cave 2008-11-23
Bike female 04:47:06 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21
Run female 02:52:56 Chrissie Wellington 2010-11-21

Course Rating

Course Rating for IM Arizona is 08:10.

Race Adjustments for IM Arizona

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating
2005 n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a
2006 04:19 -00:55 29 04:19 -00:55
2007 05:26 -01:11 27 04:52 -01:03
2008 05:01 -01:04 38 04:55 -01:03
2008 07:52 00:39 54 05:39 -00:38
2009 10:38 -01:32 37 06:39 -00:49
2010 10:59 -01:13 46 07:22 -00:53
2011 12:58 -01:07 58 08:10 -00:55

Male Race Participants

I can almost copy what I’ve written about the field for IM Florida: A large field, but no real rockstars. We still have a few well known names that could easily contend for the top 10 in Kona 2013, such as Tom Lowe, James Cunnama or Mathias Hecht. Add in a couple of other strong, but maybe not quite as experienced athletes such as Richie Cunningham or Jan Van Berkel in their second IMs or TJ Tollakson, Matty Reed or Justin Daerr that may just take the next step forward. (Update: I thought James was considering Arizona, but he’s racing in Cozumel. My bad.)

Again, similar to Florida, there may be quite a few changes in the start list, with more athletes entering late and some others withdrawing.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Richie Cunningham USA 08:25:26 08:33:12 24
2 Tom Lowe GBR 08:26:14 08:34:01 27
3 Jan Van Berkel SUI 08:30:30 08:38:21 39
4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:30:41 08:38:32 40
5 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:31:02 08:38:53 42
6 Stephan Vuckovic GER 08:34:15 08:42:09 49
7 TJ Tollakson USA 08:36:30 08:44:26 62
8 Georg Potrebitsch GER 08:37:22 08:45:19 68
9 Torsten Abel GER 08:37:54 08:45:52 73
10 Matty Reed USA 08:38:53 08:46:51 79
11 Justin Daerr USA 08:40:55 08:48:55 88
12 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:48:36 08:56:43 133
13 Swen Sundberg GER 08:48:38 08:56:45 134
14 Matthew Russell USA 08:52:18 09:00:29 153
15 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:52:45 09:00:56 156
16 Domenico Passuello ITA 08:54:10 09:02:23 166
17 Luke Dragstra NZL 08:58:14 09:06:30 191
18 Ian Mikelson USA 08:59:37 09:07:55 207
19 Michael Wetzel GER 09:00:02 09:08:20 211
20 Jarmo Hast FIN 09:02:05 09:10:25 231
21 Markus Ressler AUT 09:03:55 09:12:17 237
22 Dan Brown PHI 09:04:57 09:13:19 241
23 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:06:42 09:15:06 254
24 Jared Milam USA 09:07:46 09:16:11 264
25 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:16:11 09:24:44 328
26 Kyle Marcotte CAN 09:18:07 09:26:42 346
27 Brendan Halpin USA 09:20:36 09:29:13 364
28 Anthony Toth CAN 09:21:44 09:30:22 370
29 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:22:25 09:31:04 376
30 Manuel Wyss SWI 09:22:59 09:31:38 385
31 Lewis Elliot USA 09:25:25 09:34:06 399
32 Daniel Mueller GER 09:26:12 09:34:54 407
33 Tyler Butterfield BMU 09:26:38 09:35:20 410
34 Jeff Paul 09:29:51 09:38:36 423
35 Yeun Sik Ham KOR 09:32:31 09:41:19 439
36 Blake Becker USA 09:34:49 09:43:39 458
37 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:43:30 09:52:28 522
38 Jozef Vrabel SVK 09:45:47 09:54:47 538
39 Heath Thurston USA 09:54:43 10:03:51 593
40 Timothy Beardall AUS 10:00:15 10:09:28 627
41 Nils Frommhold n/a unrated n/a
42 Richard Allen GBR n/a unrated n/a
43 Nicolas Hemet n/a unrated n/a
44 Jose Rosales-Yepez USA n/a unrated n/a
45 Adam Bohach n/a unrated n/a
46 Jason Watson n/a unrated n/a
47 Derek Garcia n/a unrated n/a
48 Christopher Ganter n/a unrated n/a
49 Alun Woodward GBR n/a unrated n/a
50 Marek Jaskolka n/a unrated n/a
51 Anu Vaidyanathan IND n/a unrated n/a

Update: There are a few well know athletes that are not on the start list but have announced that they will start in Arizona:

  • Jordan Rapp (rated 8:27:33) (Update3: The Rappstar isn’t starting after all: He crashed on a bike ride, separated his shoulder and dislocated a finger. More on his blog.
  • Andy Potts (rated 8:28:13) (Update2: Pottsy tweeted that he ended his season after the Austin 70.3.) 

Female Race Participants

On the women’s side, Kona winner Leanda Cave looks to become the second person securing a Kona spot (after Rinnie validated in Florida). She did the same Kona – Arizona couple last year, and what success it was (both in 2011 and 2012)! But with some of the other athletes in the race (most notably Linsey, Meredith and Kelly), she has to be in top form to repeat her 2011 win.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Leanda Cave GBR 09:15:26 09:23:58 11
2 Linsey Corbin USA 09:16:34 09:25:07 13
3 Meredith Kessler USA 09:22:23 09:31:02 21
4 Kelly Williamson USA 09:22:51 09:31:30 23
5 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:27:48 09:36:32 35
6 Mirjam Weerd NLD 09:33:56 09:42:45 49
7 Jessica Smith USA 09:39:40 09:48:34 67
8 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:39:42 09:48:37 67
9 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:44:38 09:53:37 82
10 Sara Gross CAN 09:45:45 09:54:45 85
11 Uli Bromme USA 09:48:21 09:57:23 93
12 Charisa Wernick USA 09:49:20 09:58:23 96
13 Janelle Morrison CAN 09:49:27 09:58:31 97
14 Kristin Lie NOR 09:55:49 10:04:58 121
15 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:00:31 10:09:45 140
16 Nina Pekerman ISR 10:01:55 10:11:10 145
17 Malaika Homo USA 10:05:09 10:14:27 150
18 Natasha Van der Merwe USA 10:08:48 10:18:09 163
19 Beth Shutt USA 10:13:19 10:22:45 179
20 Cindy Lewis 10:16:33 10:26:02 185
21 Trish Deim USA 10:21:05 10:30:38 196
22 Amber Ferreira USA 10:25:12 10:34:48 204
23 Leslie Lamacchia USA 10:28:08 10:37:47 211
24 Erin Young 10:39:51 10:49:41 235
25 Kathrin Mannweiler GER 11:03:53 11:14:05 261
26 Kim Schwabenbauer n/a unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants (updated)

The addition of Pottsy and Rappstar completely change the odds:

Jordan Rapp: 47% (1-1)

TJ Tollakson: 12% (7-1)

Tom Lowe: 11% (8-1)

Mathias Hecht: 11% (8-1)

Torsten Abel: 9% (10-1)

Georg Potrebitsch: 3% (38-1)

Female Race Participants

Leanda Cave: 44% (1-1)

Linsey Corbin: 29% (3-1)

Meredith Kessler: 15% (6-1)

Kelly Williamson: 7% (14-1)

Mirjam Weerd: 4% (26-1)

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