IM Australia 2013 – Predictions

The next Ironman is coming up. After the big race in Melbourne, Port Macquarie struggles a bit to come up with a decent field. So far, the race doesn’t seem to have much appeal to athletes outside of Australia or New Zealand. Looks like a good chance to sneak into the field for a podium finish, even if the race only has a 1.000 points for the winner and a total price purse of 25k$.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Paul Ambrose GBR 00:46:18 04:31:25 02:57:12 08:17:38
2 Tim Berkel AUS 00:48:49 04:42:04 02:47:20 08:21:11
3 Jason Shortis AUS 00:50:28 04:53:51 02:51:57 08:40:02

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Michelle Gailey AUS 00:51:48 05:29:57 03:08:38 09:34:57
2 Nicole Ward AUS 00:51:50 05:28:57 03:20:47 09:44:40
3 Hillary Biscay USA 00:50:40 05:29:13 03:34:04 09:58:19

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:17:38 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Swim overall 00:46:09 Shane Gibbs 2006-05-11
Bike overall 04:31:25 Paul Ambrose 2012-04-29
Run overall 02:47:20 Tim Berkel 2012-04-29
Total female 08:57:10 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Swim female 00:48:42 Melissa Ashton 2006-05-11
Bike female 05:05:02 Chrissie Wellington 2009-04-05
Run female 03:01:06 Lisa Bentley 2006-05-11

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Australia is 03:37.

Race Adjustments for IM Australia

Year Adjustment # of Athletes Rating
2005 n/a 0 n/a
2006 00:43 16 00:43
2007 02:17 24 01:30
2008 00:14 20 01:04
2009 02:48 24 01:30
2010 08:31 14 02:54
2011 03:23 13 02:59
2012 07:24 9 03:37

KPR points and Price Money

IM Australia has 1000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
1 Luke Bell AUS 08:45:42 08:49:15 87 00:47:49 04:41:08 03:17:49
2 Jason Shortis AUS 08:53:47 08:57:23 122 00:54:00 04:51:40 03:03:20
3 Patrick Evoe USA 08:55:25 08:59:02 131 00:55:50 04:45:58 03:12:25
4 Luke Whitmore AUS 08:57:33 09:01:11 143 00:53:50 05:08:36 03:00:31
5 Todd Israel AUS 09:01:03 09:04:42 167 00:50:25 05:00:48 03:10:53
6 Scott Defilippis USA 09:06:39 09:10:20 198 00:56:24 04:59:02 03:05:04
7 Chris Legh AUS 09:24:11 09:27:59 307 00:49:25 04:48:48 03:55:37
8 Dan Brown PHI 09:41:05 09:45:00 404 01:01:39 unrated unrated
9 Timothy Beardall AUS 09:47:17 09:51:15 440 01:01:36 04:47:56 03:55:57
10 Jon Woods NZL 10:01:22 10:05:25 506 00:55:46 05:05:14 03:57:21
Timothy Molesworth AUS n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Monty Frankish AUS n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 09:41:54 09:45:49 01:00:13 05:17:58 03:22:55 55
2 Nicole Ward AUS 09:56:09 10:00:10 00:54:13 05:33:51 03:29:38 95
3 Tamsyn Hayes NZL 10:12:34 10:16:42 00:58:49 05:21:57 03:47:57 142
4 Ange Castle AUS 10:36:55 10:41:13 01:12:03 05:49:49 03:31:44 194

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Luke Bell: 34% (2-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 26% (3-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 16% (5-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 13% (6-1)
  • Todd Israel: 7% (14-1)
  • Luke Whitmore: 3% (29-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Rebecca Hoschke: 43% (1-1)
  • Nicole Ward: 41% (1-1)
  • Tamsyn Hayes: 9% (10-1)
  • Ange Castle: 2% (61-1)

Results for Luke Bell (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New York 2012-08-11 00:39:08 04:37:54 03:18:52 08:39:20 08:46:17 08:49:15 9
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 00:47:52 04:33:54 03:44:11 09:10:18 09:14:35 08:49:44 10
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:47:22 04:27:47 02:52:13 08:10:38 08:19:36 08:45:13 7
IM Texas 2011-05-21 00:49:24 04:26:03 02:53:20 08:12:22 08:20:46 08:50:32 3
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 00:47:42 04:28:05 03:02:51 08:21:33 08:27:33 08:56:18 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:51:42 04:40:05 03:48:33 09:24:34 09:24:14 09:02:13 51
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 00:52:19 04:40:08 03:07:30 08:43:16 08:50:13 08:56:50 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 00:48:35 04:40:50 03:53:50 09:26:26 09:30:43 08:58:45 19
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 00:48:11 04:29:08 03:57:49 09:15:09 09:31:49 08:49:16 18
IM Australia 2008-04-06 00:47:49 05:06:24 03:02:04 08:56:17 08:56:31 08:35:45 6
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 00:47:27 04:42:27 02:53:15 08:27:41 08:32:04 08:28:24 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 00:53:57 04:29:34 02:56:55 08:24:26 08:19:56 08:27:07 7
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 00:45:27 04:33:11 02:57:11 08:15:48 08:29:29 08:30:24 2
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 00:52:14 04:37:04 03:00:08 08:33:43 08:30:39 08:30:56 13
IM Australia 2005-04-08 00:47:09 04:40:09 03:03:58 08:31:16 08:31:16 08:31:16 2

Results for Jason Shortis (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2012-12-09 00:53:56 04:42:11 02:58:19 08:38:30 08:51:47 08:57:23 4
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:59:37 04:50:40 03:25:27 09:21:24 09:26:27 08:57:56 4
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 00:54:10 04:46:45 03:06:58 08:53:25 08:57:34 08:55:07 7
IM Australia 2012-04-29 00:50:28 04:53:51 02:51:57 08:40:02 08:47:10 08:54:52 3
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:54:40 04:36:00 03:22:15 08:57:33 09:07:23 08:55:43 21
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 00:53:05 04:40:01 02:49:58 08:27:31 08:31:00 08:54:19 3
IM Canada 2011-08-28 00:56:50 05:07:28 03:04:50 09:12:55 09:16:23 08:57:12 10
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 00:57:39 04:53:59 02:50:24 08:47:18 08:48:54 08:54:44 3
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:46:07 08:49:25 08:55:34 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 00:55:40 04:37:21 04:34:06 10:12:54 10:08:44 08:56:31 11
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 00:55:04 04:44:01 02:51:46 08:34:52 08:39:34 08:45:57 4
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 00:55:28 04:38:40 03:03:11 08:37:20 08:51:27 08:46:56 6
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 00:55:39 04:56:22 03:00:31 08:58:09 08:56:32 08:46:13 3
IM Australia 2009-04-05 00:55:06 05:03:31 03:03:45 09:02:22 09:05:10 08:44:30 10
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 00:50:43 04:26:37 02:53:36 08:10:57 08:25:42 08:40:47 2
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 00:55:10 04:59:57 02:58:05 08:59:14 09:00:33 08:43:44 3
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 00:52:34 04:48:54 02:54:15 08:35:43 08:58:49 08:40:00 12
IM Australia 2007-04-08 00:49:38 04:46:39 02:49:17 08:25:34 08:27:42 08:35:55 2
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 00:50:05 04:29:52 02:43:58 08:03:55 08:17:53 08:37:43 1
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:34:09 08:37:52 08:42:38 5
Challenge Roth 2006-06-24 00:50:58 04:37:18 02:50:58 08:30:55 08:42:41 08:44:03 8
IM Australia 2006-05-11 00:50:28 04:54:53 02:50:48 08:36:09 08:36:50 08:44:35 3
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 00:58:43 04:37:42 03:16:20 08:57:06 08:53:54 08:49:21 36
Challenge Roth 2005-06-24 00:54:07 04:36:52 02:44:52 08:27:25 08:44:22 08:44:22 8

Results for Patrick Evoe (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2012-11-25 00:58:00 04:38:02 04:03:03 09:42:47 09:46:20 08:59:02 24
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 00:58:15 04:33:31 03:06:01 08:42:44 08:47:26 08:50:19 1
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 00:53:02 04:24:09 02:59:23 08:30:36 08:37:09 08:50:55 2
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 00:54:16 04:39:10 02:52:26 08:30:35 08:40:26 08:53:41 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 00:58:30 04:30:26 02:59:28 08:32:29 08:41:14 08:56:43 8
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:35:27 08:44:30 09:00:53 7
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 00:56:07 04:48:06 03:03:40 08:53:14 08:49:36 09:05:55 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 01:00:55 04:51:38 02:56:10 08:52:05 08:59:09 09:12:27 7
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 00:51:00 04:45:52 05:28:43 11:09:12 11:14:12 09:59:32 12
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 01:03:30 05:19:23 03:29:10 09:56:43 09:49:35 09:20:37 60
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 00:57:48 04:57:50 03:12:49 09:14:18 09:11:51 09:03:10 9
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 00:59:09 04:49:47 03:03:55 08:59:16 08:51:56 08:51:56 5

Results for Luke Whitmore (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 00:53:07 04:57:46 02:59:07 08:54:35 08:58:15 09:01:11 9
IM Australia 2011-05-01 08:54:57 08:58:18 09:03:16 6
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 00:54:14 04:56:56 03:04:53 08:56:04 09:10:42 09:10:42 8

Results for Todd Israel (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2012-07-08 00:48:20 05:05:33 03:16:04 09:14:54 09:24:45 09:04:42 19
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:50:43 04:40:08 02:58:32 08:33:31 08:42:54 08:42:54 15

Results for Scott Defilippis (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM New Zealand 2013-03-02 00:51:53 04:58:56 03:20:25 09:18:34 09:23:31 09:10:20 11
IM Florida 2012-11-03 00:57:44 04:18:46 02:47:29 08:09:33 08:24:36 09:08:10 3
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 00:59:04 05:00:12 02:43:52 08:46:42 08:51:59 09:15:51 5
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 00:58:13 05:12:44 03:00:04 09:16:00 09:09:29 09:20:28 7
IM Florida 2011-11-05 00:56:37 04:36:22 02:48:23 08:27:13 08:47:12 09:22:41 8
IM France 2011-06-26 00:56:03 04:59:32 03:23:49 09:26:26 09:28:28 09:31:00 13
IM St. George 2011-05-07 09:58:05 09:47:36 09:31:41 15
IM Florida 2010-11-06 00:57:58 04:41:24 02:57:29 08:43:35 08:55:13 09:26:09 11
IM St. George 2010-05-01 01:02:23 05:34:51 03:06:52 09:53:07 09:43:07 09:39:28 17
IM Florida 2009-11-07 04:55:10 03:28:46 09:31:53 09:46:48 09:37:19 16
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 01:04:50 05:00:43 03:13:22 09:25:00 09:27:17 09:27:17 16

Results for Chris Legh (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2006-05-11 00:46:28 04:56:39 03:54:43 09:37:50 09:38:36 09:27:59 15
IM Australia 2005-04-08 00:50:56 09:13:27 09:13:27 09:13:27 13

Results for Dan Brown (PHI)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2012-11-18 01:06:04 09:40:56 09:52:37 09:45:00 28
IM Australia 2012-04-29 00:56:46 05:42:34 06:44:37 13:29:04 13:40:10 08:59:20 6
IM Korea 2006-08-27 08:55:28 08:59:20 08:59:20 8

Results for Timothy Beardall (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2012-11-18 01:03:19 04:26:04 03:33:10 09:06:59 09:18:00 09:51:15 25
IM Florida 2012-11-03 01:02:14 04:32:43 04:31:39 10:12:28 10:31:18 10:08:32 25
IM Louisville 2012-08-26 01:08:01 04:44:44 03:40:34 09:39:18 09:44:30 09:44:30 6

Results for Jon Woods (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2012-12-09 00:57:12 04:56:19 03:52:27 09:50:18 10:05:25 10:05:25 15

Results for Timothy Molesworth (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Monty Frankish (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Rebecca Hoschke (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2012-12-09 01:02:44 05:03:28 03:09:26 09:19:48 09:34:08 09:45:49 3
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:56:26 05:16:16 03:30:21 09:46:41 10:00:23 09:52:30 14
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 01:02:05 05:10:29 03:21:17 09:39:53 09:44:24 09:44:24 5

Results for Nicole Ward (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Western Australia 2012-12-09 00:54:03 05:22:03 03:23:13 09:43:29 09:58:26 10:00:10 6
IM Australia 2012-04-29 00:51:50 05:28:57 03:20:47 09:44:40 09:52:41 10:00:33 2
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 00:54:21 05:40:05 03:33:45 10:12:39 10:05:28 10:02:21 6
IM Australia 2011-05-01 09:49:23 09:53:04 10:01:31 3
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 00:55:45 05:32:36 03:25:07 09:56:48 10:04:43 10:03:53 6
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 00:54:40 05:26:17 03:25:18 09:51:05 09:58:27 10:03:39 6
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:59:49 05:44:20 03:32:01 10:20:46 10:06:01 10:05:28 32
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 00:54:39 05:32:39 03:23:42 09:56:04 10:05:35 10:05:14 7
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 00:56:17 05:20:10 03:26:44 09:43:12 10:00:43 10:05:01 5
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 00:57:28 05:22:18 03:24:49 09:44:35 10:10:46 10:10:46 9

Results for Tamsyn Hayes (NZL)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Wanaka 2013-01-19 01:06:44 05:29:15 03:39:54 10:21:04 10:17:59 10:16:42 5
Challenge Kopenhagen 2012-08-11 00:57:47 05:15:53 04:07:51 10:26:01 10:43:08 10:16:11 8
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:54:13 05:14:02 03:29:34 09:41:06 09:54:40 10:01:26 13
Challenge Wanaka 2012-01-21 01:00:06 05:23:19 03:44:29 10:16:23 10:09:09 10:09:09 7

Results for Ange Castle (AUS)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cairns 2012-06-02 01:13:46 05:41:47 03:33:04 10:36:16 10:41:13 10:41:13 6
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