IM Canada 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Canada is one of the slower courses with a course rating of 3:14, just a little bit faster than Kona. Last years winners were Jordan Rapp (8:28:09) and Mary Beth Ellis (9:03:13). The course records are held by Jordan Rapp (8:25:13, 2009) and Mary Beth Ellis (9:03:13, 2011), with Meredith Kessler having the fastest swim I could find (49:59, 2010).

IM Canada is a “only” a 1.000 points race, and (together with IM Louisville) is the last chance to get qualifying points for Kona 2012.

Male Participants

Last year’s winner Jordan Rapp finally committed to race in Kona this year, so he is not back to defend his title. The highest ranked athlete on the start list is Christian Brader from Germany:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Christian Brader GER 08:57:42 09:00:56 143
2 Matthew Russell USA 09:02:22 09:05:38 173
3 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:12:17 09:15:37 241
4 Scott Curry CAN 09:12:21 09:15:41 242
5 Christopher Bagg USA 09:15:58 09:19:19 279
6 Olly Piggin CAN 09:22:23 09:25:46 326
7 Kyle Marcotte CAN 09:23:11 09:26:34 331
8 Lewis Elliot USA 09:31:27 09:34:53 394
9 Anthony Toth CAN 09:34:21 09:37:48 410
10 Luke Way CAN 09:45:19 09:48:50 491
11 Andrew Powell   10:01:46 10:05:23 592
12 Ryan Borger   n/a unrated n/a
13 Nathan Killam   n/a unrated n/a
14 Shanon Stallard NZL n/a unrated n/a
15 Derek Garcia   n/a unrated n/a

He’s also the one with the best winning odds:

  • Christian Brader: 33%
  • Matthew Russell: 17%
  • Kyle Marcotte: 15%
  • Christopher Bagg: 14%

Female Participants

On the female side, there two “big” names on the start list: Samantha McGlone (coming back from a long break) and Meredith Kessler.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Samantha McGlone USA 09:27:08 09:30:33 16
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:31:29 09:34:55 25
3 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:34:24 09:37:52 33
4 Janelle Morrison CAN 09:54:29 09:58:04 88
5 Paolina Allan CAN 10:05:09 10:08:48 121
6 Rachel Kiers CAN 10:14:15 10:17:57 155
7 Marilyn McDonald CAN 10:17:20 10:21:03 167
8 Stephanie Ossenbrink CAN 10:24:00 10:27:45 186
9 Gillian Clayton CAN 10:25:49 10:29:35 190
10 Trish Deim USA 10:33:47 10:37:36 206
11 Alexis Smith   n/a unrated n/a
12 Brenda Lomax   n/a unrated n/a
13 Monica Dalidowicz   n/a unrated n/a

While Samantha has the better rating, “MBK” (coming off two IM wins this season) has better winning odds:

  • Meredith Kessler: 43%
  • Samantha McGlone: 33%
  • Mackenzie Madison: 19%
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