IM France 2011 Predictions (Main Post)

As per usual, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM France is a medium-fast course (course rating of 8:24), comparable to IM Arizona (7:55). Last year’s race was won by Marcel Zamora in 8:25 and Tine Deckers in 9:21.

Male Participants

Surprisingly, last year’s winner does not top my prediction, but rather Paul Amey:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Paul Amey USA 08:26:55 08:40:24 27
2 Marcel Zamora ESP 08:30:15 08:43:49 35
3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:30:49 08:44:24 37
4 Francois Chabaud FRA 08:36:48 08:50:32 68
5 Alexandro Santamaria ESP 08:46:04 09:00:03 107
6 Simon Billeau FRA 08:48:21 09:02:24 122
7 Sergio Marques PRT 08:53:17 09:07:28 136
8 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:01:24 09:15:48 195
9 Bruno Clerbout BEL 09:02:44 09:17:10 205
10 Chris Brands NLD 09:03:56 09:18:24 219
11 Jose Jeuland FRA 09:05:10 09:19:40 230
12 Dirk Wijnalda NLD 09:07:26 09:21:59 246
13 Xavier Diepart BEL 09:09:59 09:24:36 268
14 Leandro Gonzalez Bonet ARG 09:20:41 09:35:35 328
15 Leonardo Simoncini ITA 09:23:54 09:38:54 348
16 Scott Defilippis USA 09:24:14 09:39:14 352
17 Alfred Rahm GER 09:28:49 09:43:56 388
18 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:42:01 09:57:30 477
19 Luca De Paolis ITA n/a unrated n/a
20 Domenico Passuello ITA n/a unrated n/a
21 Nicolas Fernandez FRA n/a unrated n/a
22 Cedric Lassonde FRA n/a unrated n/a
23 Bill Scanlon AUS n/a unrated n/a

All of the top 3 prediction wouldn’t be a surprise winner, it’ll be interesting to see how the race between Amey, Marcel Zamora and Frederik van Lierde is going to turn out.

Female Participants

Another surprise tops the women’s field:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Silvia Felt GER 09:21:28 09:36:24 20
2 Christel Robin FRA 09:25:53 09:40:56 31
3 Heather Gollnick USA 09:32:03 09:47:16 45
4 Kim Loeffler USA 09:32:24 09:47:37 46
5 Jeanne Collonge FRA 09:36:35 09:51:55 54
6 Martina Dogana ITA 09:40:23 09:55:49 63
7 Britta Martin NZL 09:44:06 09:59:38 69
8 Alexandra Louison FRA 09:49:55 10:05:36 85
9 Johanna Daumas FRA 09:56:10 10:12:01 110
10 Katya Meyers USA 10:05:06 10:21:11 137
11 Fiona Whitby CAN 10:14:28 10:30:48 167
12 Stephanie Jones USA 10:29:54 10:46:39 205
13 Miranda Alldritt CAN 10:45:30 11:02:40 230
14 Christine Hemphill AUS n/a unrated n/a

As you can see in the details, I have just one result Silvia Felt in my database (a 9:24 and 4th place from this year’s IM South Africa) – I wonder if she’ll be able to put in another performance at this level. She is followed by a number of established athletes, and I would think that everyone up to #8 has a realistic chance of winning the race or at least being in the mix.

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