IM Louisville 2011 – Predictions

Just a quick post without an accompanying details post to get my predictions out before the race starts. I’m playing a bit of a catch-up with upcoming races, and I’m planning a few things for Kona, so it’s quite busy right now.

Previous Results

From a time perspective, IM Louisville (rated 1:32) is pretty similar to IM Canada (3:08). Conditions are usually pretty hot on race day, so the resulting times are relatively slow.

Last year’s race was won by Paul Ambrose (8:29) and Rebekah Keat (9:33).

Male Participants

Paul Ambrose is back to defend his title, but my race favorite is Chris McDonald:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Chris McDonald AUS 08:49:02 08:50:33 78
2 Paul Ambrose AUS 08:53:19 08:54:50 92
3 Justin Daerr USA 08:54:07 08:55:38 98
4 Patrick Evoe USA 08:59:08 09:00:40 123
5 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:06:46 09:08:20 164
6 Romain Guillaume FRA 09:11:41 09:13:15 191
7 Dave Harju CAN 09:14:39 09:16:14 213
8 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:17:25 09:19:00 247
9 Tim Snow USA 09:27:12 09:28:49 315
10 Logan Franks USA 09:32:20 09:33:58 349
11 Bojan Maric SCG 10:05:54 10:07:38 569
12 Richard Wygand BRA 10:57:55 10:59:48 764

This race is going to be pretty close, any of the top four or five athletes has a decent shot at winning the race.

Female Participants

Nina Kraft has won the race in 2007 and 2009, so she has to be considered the favorite for 2011. Her last Ironman result is from 2009 however, so her rating has to be taken with a bit of caution. Probably Amy Marsh (coming off a second place in Switzerland) is in a better position to grab another title:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Nina Kraft GER 09:28:34 09:30:11 10
2 Amy Marsh USA 09:29:44 09:31:22 14
3 Jackie Arendt USA 10:00:46 10:02:29 85
4 Jacqui Gordon USA 10:09:32 10:11:16 118
5 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:12:10 10:13:55 132
6 Donna Phelan USA 10:21:03 10:22:49 158
7 Terra Castro USA 10:24:21 10:26:08 166
8 Marilyn McDonald CAN 10:25:06 10:26:53 169
9 Marie Danais CAN 10:32:37 10:34:25 191
10 Kelzie Beebe USA 10:36:26 10:38:15 195
11 Jocelyn Wong USA 10:40:03 10:41:53 203
12 Stephanie Jones USA 10:56:48 10:58:40 239
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