IM Mont Tremblant 2013 – Predictions

Update: Leslie LaMacchia notified me on Twitter (thanks!) that Daniel Fontana will try to get some more KPR points, and that Clemente Alonso and Logan Franks will not be racing. I’ve added Daniel who is the new front-runner (the athlete with the best rating, even if my odds favor Victor Zyemtsev) and crossed out Logan and Clemente. 

 

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Romain Guillaume	FRA	00:51:22	04:35:17	03:09:09	08:40:48
2	Alejandro Santamaria	ESP	00:57:17	04:52:23	02:52:35	08:46:58
3	Matthew Russell	USA	01:02:34	04:47:11	02:53:29	08:48:12

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jessie Donavan	USA	01:07:33	05:06:31	03:11:35	09:30:46
2	Uli Bromme	USA	01:04:38	05:14:35	03:17:32	09:42:45
3	Rachel Kiers	CAN	01:01:40	05:08:46	03:33:55	09:49:49

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:40:48	Romain Guillaume	2012-08-18
Swim	overall	00:51:22	Romain Guillaume	2012-08-18
Bike	overall	04:35:17	Romain Guillaume	2012-08-18
Run	overall	02:52:35	Alejandro Santamaria	2012-08-18
Total	female	09:30:46	Jessie Donavan	2012-08-18
Swim	female	00:57:10	Marie Danais	2012-08-18
Bike	female	05:06:31	Jessie Donavan	2012-08-18
Run	female	03:11:35	Jessie Donavan	2012-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mont Tremblant is 10:49.

Race Adjustments for IM Mont Tremblant

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2012	10:49	-01:08	05:52	07:25	12	10:49	-01:08	05:52	07:25

KPR points and Price Money

IM Mont Tremblant has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 125k$.

Male Race Participants

Last year’s winner, Romain Guillaume is back to defend his title, but he is only seeded #17 as there are a lot of other, faster athletes:

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
1	Clemente Alonso-McKernan	ESP	08:22:20	08:32:37	20	00:47:40	04:46:51	02:52:06
(1)	Daniel Fontana	ITA	08:25:21	08:35:41	32	00:48:32	04:42:43	03:00:31
2	Paul Amey	GBR	08:29:37	08:40:02	47	00:49:50	04:44:55	03:03:23
3	Victor Zyemtsev	USA	08:30:50	08:41:17	54	00:50:26	04:46:36	03:00:01
4	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:36:04	08:46:37	77	00:57:28	04:42:23	03:01:23
5	Stefan Schmid	GER	08:36:36	08:47:10	79	00:53:43	04:47:33	03:03:08
6	Matty Reed	USA	08:36:52	08:47:26	82	00:47:25	04:48:29	03:07:07
7	Luke Bell	AUS	08:37:10	08:47:45	82	00:47:57	04:41:28	03:15:36
8	Bert Jammaer	BEL	08:37:52	08:48:28	90	00:49:34	04:46:50	03:06:32
9	Paul Ambrose	GBR	08:38:37	08:49:14	93	00:48:24	04:39:03	03:15:08
10	Daniel Halksworth	GBR	08:38:44	08:49:21	98	00:47:36	04:48:19	03:08:08
11	Alejandro Santamaria	ESP	08:40:42	08:51:21	107	00:54:37	04:53:11	03:00:24
12	Swen Sundberg	GER	08:43:15	08:53:57	116	00:52:08	04:44:19	03:17:16
13	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	08:44:19	08:55:02	125	00:54:57	04:52:58	03:00:50
14	Brandon Marsh	USA	08:45:20	08:56:05	133	00:47:27	04:50:04	03:12:17
15	Dominik Berger	AUT	08:51:39	09:02:32	171	00:48:28	04:51:42	03:21:21
16	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:52:27	09:03:20	177	01:00:26	04:51:24	03:06:49
17	Romain Guillaume	FRA	08:55:49	09:06:47	195	00:49:07	04:44:13	03:21:02
18	Nigel Gray	CAN	08:58:05	09:09:05	209	00:55:29	04:50:27	03:18:36
19	Simon Cochrane	NZL	09:00:58	09:12:02	229	00:52:43	05:05:00	03:09:32
20	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	09:07:45	09:18:57	273	00:47:48	04:56:02	03:23:40
21	Logan Franks	USA	09:36:23	09:48:10	450	01:02:00	05:08:02	03:27:56
22	Jerome Bresson	CAN	09:48:03	10:00:05	511	01:02:44	05:00:12	03:48:37
23	Arland Macasieb	PHL	09:56:43	10:08:55	552	01:02:43	05:20:01	03:38:54
24	Brendan Naef	CAN	11:29:58	11:44:05	696	00:57:24	05:09:08	05:39:20
	Greg Kopecky	USA	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Michael Louys	BEL	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Adam Jones	CAN	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Sean Bechtel	CAN	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated

Female Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:04:49	09:15:58	00:51:13	05:08:31	03:12:52	7
2	Rebekah Keat	AUS	09:13:26	09:24:45	00:52:37	05:12:20	03:15:10	14
3	Erika Csomor	HUN	09:17:48	09:29:13	00:57:34	05:14:53	03:12:20	21
4	Joanna Lawn	NZL	09:22:14	09:33:44	00:53:58	05:15:06	03:20:25	31
5	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:23:40	09:35:12	01:07:11	05:08:19	03:17:15	35
6	Jennie Hansen	USA	09:27:53	09:39:30	01:05:50	05:16:13	03:11:54	46
7	Kim Schwabenbauer	USA	09:29:53	09:41:32	01:03:21	05:17:29	03:21:31	53
8	Haley Chura	USA	09:29:56	09:41:35	00:48:31	05:19:33	03:34:26	53
9	Sarah Piampiano	USA	09:36:07	09:47:54	01:00:50	05:23:48	03:22:43	71
10	Bree Wee	USA	09:37:07	09:48:55	00:53:25	05:17:13	03:31:02	73
11	Keiko Tanaka	JAP	09:37:10	09:48:58	00:54:21	05:26:56	03:23:47	74
12	Christine Anderson	USA	09:47:20	09:59:21	00:54:45	05:28:21	03:33:11	104
13	Jessica Smith	USA	09:53:48	10:05:57	00:53:38	05:25:50	03:45:08	124
14	Hillary Biscay	USA	09:57:15	10:09:28	00:52:21	05:33:53	03:37:41	134
15	Olesya Prystayko	UKR	09:57:31	10:09:44	00:58:38	05:27:14	03:40:30	135
16	Nina Pekerman	ISR	09:59:26	10:11:42	00:58:33	05:31:02	03:37:21	141
17	April Gellatly	USA	10:02:01	10:14:20	00:56:48	05:29:44	03:40:56	148
18	Marie Danais	CAN	10:23:35	10:36:20	00:57:17	05:43:58	03:45:50	198
19	Annie Gervais	CAN	10:28:07	10:40:58	01:06:29	05:28:53	03:57:14	207
	Molly Roohi	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Morgin Chaffin	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Amanda Kourtz	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 25% (3-1)
• Victor Zyemtsev: 17% (5-1)
• Paul Ambrose: 17% (5-1)
• Paul Amey: 16% (5-1)
• Luke Bell: 13% (6-1)
• Bert Jammaer: 2% (42-1)
• Jozsef Major: 2% (43-1)
• Trevor Delsaut: 2% (49-1)

• Victor Zyemtsev: 24% (3-1)
• Paul Ambrose: 20% (4-1)
• Paul Amey: 17% (5-1)
• Luke Bell: 16% (5-1)
• Daniel Fontana: 10% (9-1)
• Bert Jammaer: 3% (36-1)
• Jozsef Major: 3% (36-1)
• Trevor Delsaut: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

• Mary Beth Ellis: 53% (1-1)
• Rebekah Keat: 18% (4-1)
• Erika Csomor: 14% (6-1)
• Jessie Donavan: 7% (12-1)
• Joanna Lawn: 5% (18-1)