IM New York 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

New York is a new race on the Ironman calendar, so there is no data if this is a slow or a fast course. It is designated the North American regional championship, with the winner getting 4000 points and a total price purse of 100.000$ (25.000$ for the winner).

Male Participants

As a regional championship with relatively good price money, New York managed to draw a large field with some strong athletes (even if the “rock stars” are already focusing on Kona). The top seeded athlete is Jordan Rapp:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Jordan Rapp USA n/a 08:29:13 12
2 Maxim Kriat UKR n/a 08:35:14 24
3 Mathias Hecht SWI n/a 08:42:34 44
4 Maik Twelsiek GER n/a 08:42:51 46
5 Michael Lovato USA n/a 08:46:10 58
6 Jozsef Major HUN n/a 08:47:37 66
7 Paul Ambrose GBR n/a 08:47:52 68
8 Pedro Gomez POR n/a 08:48:04 71
9 Chris McDonald AUS n/a 08:48:11 72
10 TJ Tollakson USA n/a 08:48:42 79
11 Luke Bell AUS n/a 08:50:00 87
12 Jason Shortis AUS n/a 08:56:28 112
13 Alejandro Santamaria ESP n/a 08:57:24 115
14 Philip Graves GBR n/a 08:57:38 116
15 Bert Jammaer BEL n/a 08:57:49 119
16 Kevin Taddonio USA n/a 08:58:51 126
17 Christian Brader GER n/a 09:02:07 147
18 Todd Israel AUS n/a 09:06:11 174
19 Mike Schifferle SUI n/a 09:10:17 204
20 Trevor Wurtele CAN n/a 09:10:39 206
21 Bryan Rhodes NZL n/a 09:16:00 241
22 Michael Wetzel GER n/a 09:16:00 241
23 Markus Thomschke GER n/a 09:16:48 249
24 Jose Jeuland FRA n/a 09:16:59 255
25 Marcel Bischof GER n/a 09:28:27 344
26 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN n/a 09:29:56 355
27 Brendan Halpin USA n/a 09:30:04 357
28 Timothy Marr USA n/a 09:31:04 367
29 Peter Kotland USA n/a 09:31:09 368
30 Lewis Elliot USA n/a 09:34:54 391
31 Daniel Mueller GER n/a 09:39:37 418
32 Douglas Maclean USA n/a 09:45:37 464
33 Raymond Botelho USA n/a 09:52:39 514
34 Juha Laitinen FIN n/a 09:57:32 544
35 Matjaz Kovac SVN n/a 09:59:41 556
36 Sergio Quezada MEX n/a 10:08:00 609
37 Ivan Rana ESP n/a unrated n/a
38 Brandon Jessop USA n/a unrated n/a
39 Richard Allen GBR n/a unrated n/a

The winning odds make clear that Jordan is the clear favorite:

  • Jordan Rapp: 41%
  • Luke Bell: 20%
  • Paul Ambrose: 15%
  • TJ Tollakson: 9%

Female Participants

On the women’s side, the highest ranked athlete is Mary Beth Ellis:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA n/a 09:18:22 4
2 Amy Marsh USA n/a 09:27:41 11
3 Rebekah Keat AUS n/a 09:27:54 13
4 Lucie Zelenkova ZAF n/a 09:39:07 35
5 Michelle Mitchell AUS n/a 09:43:15 45
6 Jessie Donavan USA n/a 09:47:32 56
7 Michelle Bremer NZL n/a 09:47:33 57
8 Mareen Hufe GER n/a 09:48:47 62
9 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD n/a 09:51:31 69
10 Tamara Kozulina UKR n/a 09:54:07 73
11 Sara Gross CAN n/a 09:56:19 78
12 Heather Gollnick USA n/a 09:56:44 81
13 Kate Bevilaqua AUS n/a 09:57:26 85
14 Dede Griesbauer USA n/a 09:59:22 91
15 Kristin Andrews USA n/a 10:00:37 92
16 Christie Sym AUS n/a 10:05:29 108
17 Haley Cooper-Scott USA n/a 10:13:37 141
18 Hillary Biscay USA n/a 10:14:02 143
19 Jacqui Gordon USA n/a 10:14:04 144
20 Nina Pekerman ISR n/a 10:18:36 157
21 Maki Nishiuchi JPN n/a 10:26:46 182
22 Anne Basso FRA n/a 10:28:54 187
23 Fernanda Keller BRA n/a 10:35:59 201
24 Laurel Wassner USA n/a unrated n/a
25 Meghan Newcomer USA n/a unrated n/a

The race looks to be a bit closer on the women’s side:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 38%
  • Amy Marsh: 24%
  • Rebekah Keat: 18%
  • Lucie Zelenkova: 8%
  • Heleen Bij De Vaate: 4%
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