IM St. George 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

As always, you can find additional information on the participants in the detail post.

Previous Results

St. George has been run twice as an Ironman (2010 and 2011), and it has just been announced that it will become a 70.3. after this year. So this is the last year for athletes to post a course record. Currently these stand at 8:32:03 (posted by last year’s winner Mathias Hecht) and 9:30:33 (also from last year by Heather Wurtele). One chance to go down in history!

St. George is a slow course (lots of hills, especially on the run) with a course rating of –2:33. It is a 2.000 points race (and in North America), so the field is a bit larger and deeper than IM Australia.

Male Participants

Last year’s second, Maik Twelsiek is back and will aim to win another Ironman.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Maik Twelsiek GER 08:44:37 08:42:09 42
2 Chris McDonald AUS 08:50:29 08:48:00 74
3 Ben Hoffman USA 08:51:33 08:49:03 84
4 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:55:10 08:52:39 97
5 Kevin Taddonio USA 09:01:31 08:58:58 127
6 Ernst Moser AUT 09:08:52 09:06:17 173
7 Matthew Russell USA 09:09:47 09:07:12 175
8 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:12:42 09:10:06 195
9 Matthew Sheeks USA 09:25:15 09:22:36 299
10 Brendan Halpin USA 09:32:06 09:29:25 346
11 Billy Edwards USA 09:32:11 09:29:30 350
12 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:34:16 09:31:34 372
13 Adam O’Meara CAN 09:39:05 09:36:22 395
14 Logan Franks USA 09:58:06 09:55:17 524
15 Thomas Gerlach   10:05:25 10:02:34 570
16 Heath Thurston USA 10:08:28 10:05:37 592
17 Dantley Young USA 10:08:44 10:05:52 594
18 Richard Wygand BRA 10:52:21 10:49:17 770
19 Kirk Nelson USA 12:25:14 12:21:44 858
20 Monte Still   n/a unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  • Maik Twelsiek: 47%
  • Ben Hoffman: 22%
  • Chris McDonald: 15%
  • Axel Zeebroek: 10%

“Maiki” is a very solid competitor who rarely has a day off, lets hope he overcame his DNF in Abu Dhabi (apparently, he had problems with his bike position there). But I’m sure that Ben and Chris will make his life as hard as possible.

Female Participants

Here are the entries in the women’s race:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:39:36 09:36:53 30
2 Meredith Kessler USA 09:40:02 09:37:19 31
3 Jessie Donavan USA 09:41:43 09:38:59 36
4 Jessica Smith USA 09:51:54 09:49:07 57
5 Uli Bromme USA 10:05:07 10:02:17 89
6 Jackie Arendt USA 10:07:55 10:05:04 100
7 Erin Spitler USA 10:25:36 10:22:40 170
8 Trish Deim USA n/a unrated n/a
9 Gillian Clayton CAN n/a unrated n/a
10 Erin Young USA n/a unrated n/a

Even if their rankings are quite close, “MBK” has a better chance of winning:

  • Meredith Kessler: 43%
  • Mackenzie Madison: 37%
  • Jessie Donavan: 11%
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