IM Sweden 2013 – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Jan Raphael	GER	00:48:32	04:26:32	02:45:44	08:04:01
2	Dorian Wagner	GER	00:48:38	04:26:31	02:49:49	08:08:06
3	Horst Reichel	GER	00:48:16	04:27:09	02:51:00	08:10:12

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Asa Lundström	SWE	01:00:17	04:51:45	03:18:19	09:13:27
2	Dana Wagner	GER	00:58:55	04:48:47	03:31:30	09:22:32
3	Emi Sakai	JPN	01:04:48	04:53:38	03:31:05	09:34:36

Course Records

Last year was the first time that Kalmar was an official Ironman, so all the course records are from 2012:

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:04:01	Jan Raphael	2012-08-18
Swim	overall	00:48:15	Andi Boecherer	2012-08-18
Bike	overall	04:24:20	Karl-Johan Danielsson	2012-08-18
Run	overall	02:45:44	Jan Raphael	2012-08-18
Total	female	09:13:27	Asa Lundström	2012-08-18
Swim	female	00:55:03	Rebekka Essmüller	2012-08-18
Bike	female	04:48:42	Helene Malmkvist	2012-08-18
Run	female	03:18:19	Asa Lundström	2012-08-18

Course Rating

So far, IM Sweden is the fastest course in my database with a Course Rating of 28:42.

Race Adjustments for IM Sweden

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2012	28:42	00:10	21:54	07:53	25	28:42	00:10	21:54	07:53

Based on the numbers, I have some doubts that the bike course was accurate in 2012 – it’ll be interesting to see if the times are going to be as fast again this year. (Therefore, the predicted times – based on the 2012 course – should be taken with a grain of salt.)

KPR points and Price Money

IM Sweden has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 50k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Rank	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
1	David Plese	SVN	08:12:08	08:39:46	46	00:54:30	04:42:45	03:00:56
2	Jarmo Hast	FIN	08:15:20	08:43:08	65	00:49:59	04:50:23	03:00:03
3	Anton Blokhin	UKR	08:18:00	08:45:57	73	00:48:31	04:50:46	03:03:30
4	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	08:19:39	08:47:42	82	00:48:53	04:44:38	03:12:06
5	Pedro Gomes	POR	08:19:43	08:47:46	84	00:52:44	04:52:47	03:09:15
6	Christophe Bastie	FRA	08:22:12	08:50:23	104	00:53:19	04:44:31	03:08:16
7	Jonas Djurback	SWE	08:25:24	08:53:46	116	00:49:35	04:52:39	03:07:10
8	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	08:33:04	09:01:52	164	00:48:28	04:58:43	03:12:40
9	Andi Fuchs	AUT	08:36:34	09:05:34	187	00:57:17	04:50:38	03:14:26
10	David Naesvik	SWE	08:37:59	09:07:04	196	00:54:53	04:48:32	03:20:10
11	Rinalds Sluckis	LAT	08:38:42	09:07:49	200	00:55:54	04:50:39	03:17:55
12	Greg Close	USA	08:42:18	09:11:37	227	00:56:47	05:01:56	03:13:00
13	Paul Hawkins	GBR	08:50:16	09:20:02	279	00:58:30	05:28:51	03:20:23
14	Jonas Colting	SWE	08:50:33	09:20:20	283	00:50:00	04:53:24	03:29:55
15	Ivan Alvarez Gomez	ESP	08:50:43	09:20:31	288	00:56:07	05:10:58	03:12:41
16	Fredrik Carlen	SWE	08:52:30	09:22:24	301	00:54:56	04:58:27	03:23:01
17	Joni Pinosto	FIN	08:59:33	09:29:50	334	00:57:56	05:02:32	03:23:28
18	Stefano Paoli	ITA	09:06:00	09:36:39	380	00:53:55	04:57:40	03:41:33
19	Manuel Wyss	SWI	09:06:08	09:36:48	382	00:53:08	05:13:21	03:24:03
20	Martin Cain	GBR	09:09:58	09:40:50	402	00:57:56	05:08:22	03:27:22
21	Steven Osborne	GBR	09:18:09	09:49:29	458	00:57:55	05:29:45	03:19:29
22	Heinrich Sickl	AUT	09:19:11	09:50:34	462	00:56:02	05:05:16	03:35:53
23	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	09:26:50	09:58:39	504	00:58:42	05:17:49	03:37:23
24	Josef Krivanek	CZE	09:29:06	10:01:03	516	01:00:30	05:13:59	03:42:18
25	Hirotsugu Kuwabara	JAP	09:35:43	10:08:02	550	00:51:59	05:22:54	03:48:58
26	Ivan Kharin	RUS	09:43:24	10:16:09	583	01:08:16	05:09:48	03:28:51
27	Ari Saukko	FIN	09:50:49	10:23:59	615	00:58:03	05:04:26	04:16:32
28	Andrej Palinsky	SVK	10:22:21	10:57:17	672	01:15:47	05:17:46	04:16:49
29	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:15:21	11:53:16	697	01:11:15	05:57:22	04:37:21
	Morten Truelsen		n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Yves Moubayed	GER	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Lennart Moberg	SWE	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Stefan Eichheimer	GER	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Jonas Bergkvist	SWE	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Pontus Lindberg	SWE	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Jojje Borssén		n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Harri Sokk		n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated
	Andreas Linden	SWE	n/a	unrated	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated

Female Race Participants

I’m not sure if Jodie Swallow is going to race in Sweden or if she entered in case she needs more Kona points. If she does race, she is the clear favorite.

Rank	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	Jodie Swallow	GBR	08:48:12	09:17:51	00:48:07	04:57:34	03:30:52	10
2	Daniela Saemmler	GER	09:00:41	09:31:02	00:54:11	05:11:32	03:21:39	23
3	Eva Nystroem	Swe	09:06:03	09:36:42	01:01:46	05:11:08	03:21:46	39
4	Britta Martin	NZL	09:07:12	09:37:55	01:00:47	05:10:43	03:19:20	41
5	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	09:21:42	09:53:14	01:07:51	05:20:23	03:18:12	86
6	Stephanie Jones	USA	09:25:07	09:56:50	01:05:44	05:19:50	03:25:51	97
7	Dana Wagner	GER	09:27:17	09:59:08	01:01:09	05:25:37	03:35:01	103
8	Kristin Lie	NOR	09:32:30	10:04:38	01:11:11	05:17:17	03:31:02	120
9	Maria Lemeseva	RUS	09:33:35	10:05:47	01:05:04	05:29:11	03:28:01	122
10	Helene Pallesen	DEN	09:43:39	10:16:25	01:09:01	05:41:14	03:22:06	158
11	Jana Candrova	CZE	09:47:31	10:20:30	01:03:33	unrated	03:38:13	171
12	Simona Vykoukalova	CZE	09:58:03	10:31:37	01:08:26	05:41:29	03:36:23	192
13	Conny Dauben	GER	10:21:28	10:56:21	01:08:22	05:45:02	03:59:31	227
14	Zsuzsanna Harsanyi	HUN	10:26:56	11:02:08	01:04:07	05:58:48	03:51:28	234
	Louise Rundqvist		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Emma Graaf		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a
	Steffi Steinberg	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Jarmo Hast: 26% (3-1)
• Pedro Gomes: 19% (4-1)
• David Plese: 16% (5-1)
• Anton Blokhin: 15% (5-1)
• Jonas Djurback: 14% (6-1)
• Christophe Bastie: 9% (10-1)

Female Race Participants

• Jodie Swallow: 37% (2-1)
• Britta Martin: 28% (3-1)
• Eva Nystroem: 14% (6-1)
• Daniela Saemmler: 10% (9-1)
• Stephanie Jones: 7% (14-1)
• Camilla Lindholm: 4% (23-1)