IM Sweden 2013 – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Jan Raphael GER 00:48:32 04:26:32 02:45:44 08:04:01
2 Dorian Wagner GER 00:48:38 04:26:31 02:49:49 08:08:06
3 Horst Reichel GER 00:48:16 04:27:09 02:51:00 08:10:12

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Asa Lundström SWE 01:00:17 04:51:45 03:18:19 09:13:27
2 Dana Wagner GER 00:58:55 04:48:47 03:31:30 09:22:32
3 Emi Sakai JPN 01:04:48 04:53:38 03:31:05 09:34:36

Course Records

Last year was the first time that Kalmar was an official Ironman, so all the course records are from 2012:

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:04:01 Jan Raphael 2012-08-18
Swim overall 00:48:15 Andi Boecherer 2012-08-18
Bike overall 04:24:20 Karl-Johan Danielsson 2012-08-18
Run overall 02:45:44 Jan Raphael 2012-08-18
Total female 09:13:27 Asa Lundström 2012-08-18
Swim female 00:55:03 Rebekka Essmüller 2012-08-18
Bike female 04:48:42 Helene Malmkvist 2012-08-18
Run female 03:18:19 Asa Lundström 2012-08-18

Course Rating

So far, IM Sweden is the fastest course in my database with a Course Rating of 28:42.

Race Adjustments for IM Sweden

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2012 28:42 00:10 21:54 07:53 25 28:42 00:10 21:54 07:53

Based on the numbers, I have some doubts that the bike course was accurate in 2012 – it’ll be interesting to see if the times are going to be as fast again this year. (Therefore, the predicted times – based on the 2012 course – should be taken with a grain of salt.)

KPR points and Price Money

IM Sweden has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 50k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
1 David Plese SVN 08:12:08 08:39:46 46 00:54:30 04:42:45 03:00:56
2 Jarmo Hast FIN 08:15:20 08:43:08 65 00:49:59 04:50:23 03:00:03
3 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:18:00 08:45:57 73 00:48:31 04:50:46 03:03:30
4 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:19:39 08:47:42 82 00:48:53 04:44:38 03:12:06
5 Pedro Gomes POR 08:19:43 08:47:46 84 00:52:44 04:52:47 03:09:15
6 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:22:12 08:50:23 104 00:53:19 04:44:31 03:08:16
7 Jonas Djurback SWE 08:25:24 08:53:46 116 00:49:35 04:52:39 03:07:10
8 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:33:04 09:01:52 164 00:48:28 04:58:43 03:12:40
9 Andi Fuchs AUT 08:36:34 09:05:34 187 00:57:17 04:50:38 03:14:26
10 David Naesvik SWE 08:37:59 09:07:04 196 00:54:53 04:48:32 03:20:10
11 Rinalds Sluckis LAT 08:38:42 09:07:49 200 00:55:54 04:50:39 03:17:55
12 Greg Close USA 08:42:18 09:11:37 227 00:56:47 05:01:56 03:13:00
13 Paul Hawkins GBR 08:50:16 09:20:02 279 00:58:30 05:28:51 03:20:23
14 Jonas Colting SWE 08:50:33 09:20:20 283 00:50:00 04:53:24 03:29:55
15 Ivan Alvarez Gomez ESP 08:50:43 09:20:31 288 00:56:07 05:10:58 03:12:41
16 Fredrik Carlen SWE 08:52:30 09:22:24 301 00:54:56 04:58:27 03:23:01
17 Joni Pinosto FIN 08:59:33 09:29:50 334 00:57:56 05:02:32 03:23:28
18 Stefano Paoli ITA 09:06:00 09:36:39 380 00:53:55 04:57:40 03:41:33
19 Manuel Wyss SWI 09:06:08 09:36:48 382 00:53:08 05:13:21 03:24:03
20 Martin Cain GBR 09:09:58 09:40:50 402 00:57:56 05:08:22 03:27:22
21 Steven Osborne GBR 09:18:09 09:49:29 458 00:57:55 05:29:45 03:19:29
22 Heinrich Sickl AUT 09:19:11 09:50:34 462 00:56:02 05:05:16 03:35:53
23 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:26:50 09:58:39 504 00:58:42 05:17:49 03:37:23
24 Josef Krivanek CZE 09:29:06 10:01:03 516 01:00:30 05:13:59 03:42:18
25 Hirotsugu Kuwabara JAP 09:35:43 10:08:02 550 00:51:59 05:22:54 03:48:58
26 Ivan Kharin RUS 09:43:24 10:16:09 583 01:08:16 05:09:48 03:28:51
27 Ari Saukko FIN 09:50:49 10:23:59 615 00:58:03 05:04:26 04:16:32
28 Andrej Palinsky SVK 10:22:21 10:57:17 672 01:15:47 05:17:46 04:16:49
29 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:15:21 11:53:16 697 01:11:15 05:57:22 04:37:21
Morten Truelsen n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Yves Moubayed GER n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Lennart Moberg SWE n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Stefan Eichheimer GER n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Jonas Bergkvist SWE n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Pontus Lindberg SWE n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Jojje Borssén n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Harri Sokk n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated
Andreas Linden SWE n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated

Female Race Participants

I’m not sure if Jodie Swallow is going to race in Sweden or if she entered in case she needs more Kona points. If she does race, she is the clear favorite.

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Jodie Swallow GBR 08:48:12 09:17:51 00:48:07 04:57:34 03:30:52 10
2 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:00:41 09:31:02 00:54:11 05:11:32 03:21:39 23
3 Eva Nystroem Swe 09:06:03 09:36:42 01:01:46 05:11:08 03:21:46 39
4 Britta Martin NZL 09:07:12 09:37:55 01:00:47 05:10:43 03:19:20 41
5 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:21:42 09:53:14 01:07:51 05:20:23 03:18:12 86
6 Stephanie Jones USA 09:25:07 09:56:50 01:05:44 05:19:50 03:25:51 97
7 Dana Wagner GER 09:27:17 09:59:08 01:01:09 05:25:37 03:35:01 103
8 Kristin Lie NOR 09:32:30 10:04:38 01:11:11 05:17:17 03:31:02 120
9 Maria Lemeseva RUS 09:33:35 10:05:47 01:05:04 05:29:11 03:28:01 122
10 Helene Pallesen DEN 09:43:39 10:16:25 01:09:01 05:41:14 03:22:06 158
11 Jana Candrova CZE 09:47:31 10:20:30 01:03:33 unrated 03:38:13 171
12 Simona Vykoukalova CZE 09:58:03 10:31:37 01:08:26 05:41:29 03:36:23 192
13 Conny Dauben GER 10:21:28 10:56:21 01:08:22 05:45:02 03:59:31 227
14 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN 10:26:56 11:02:08 01:04:07 05:58:48 03:51:28 234
Louise Rundqvist n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Emma Graaf n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
Steffi Steinberg GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • Jarmo Hast: 26% (3-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 19% (4-1)
  • David Plese: 16% (5-1)
  • Anton Blokhin: 15% (5-1)
  • Jonas Djurback: 14% (6-1)
  • Christophe Bastie: 9% (10-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Jodie Swallow: 37% (2-1)
  • Britta Martin: 28% (3-1)
  • Eva Nystroem: 14% (6-1)
  • Daniela Saemmler: 10% (9-1)
  • Stephanie Jones: 7% (14-1)
  • Camilla Lindholm: 4% (23-1)
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