Ironman Barcelona 2014 (Oct 5th) – Predictions

In late 2013, WTC bought the race organizer of Challenge Barcelona, so the race became an Ironman race. From what I know, most of the details of the race (most notably the course) will be the same as in the past. The data for the previous years (winners, course ratings etc.) is from when the race was still a Challenge race, but it should be a good indication of what to expect.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2009	Marcel Zamora (ESP)	08:15:37	Sofie Goos (BEL)	09:08:01
2010	Jimmy Johnsen (DEN)	08:19:43	Lucie Reed (CZE)	09:13:47
2011	Clemente Alonso-McKernan (ESP)	08:15:25	Gabriele Vergano (ITA)	09:12:55
2012	Bas Diederen (NED)	08:20:07	Lucy Gossage (GBR)	08:58:43
2013	Sergio Marques (POR)	08:05:21	Eva Wutti (AUT)	08:51:01

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Sergio Marques	POR	00:56:59	04:25:39	02:40:44	08:05:21
2	Tom Lowe	GBR	00:59:22	04:23:11	02:43:15	08:07:50
3	Konstantin Bachor	GER	00:52:25	04:14:16	03:02:54	08:11:23

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Eva Wutti	AUT	01:02:39	04:46:37	02:59:45	08:51:01
2	Lucie Reed	CZE	00:56:07	04:51:25	03:08:00	08:57:34
3	Tiina Boman	FIN	01:06:31	05:02:31	03:12:13	09:23:16

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:05:21	Sergio Marques	2013-10-06
Swim	overall	00:47:50	Carlos Lopez Diaz	2012-09-30
Bike	overall	04:14:16	Konstantin Bachor	2013-10-06
Run	overall	02:40:44	Sergio Marques	2013-10-06
Total	female	08:51:01	Eva Wutti	2013-10-06
Swim	female	00:52:48	Lucie Reed	2010-10-03
Bike	female	04:46:33	Mirjam Weerd	2012-09-30
Run	female	02:59:45	Eva Wutti	2013-10-06

Course Rating

The Course Rating for Challenge Barcelona is 25:34.

Race Adjustments for Challenge Barcelona

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2009	23:53	-00:58	19:53	02:38	32	23:53	-00:58	19:53	02:38
2010	21:02	-00:59	18:59	01:04	26	22:28	-00:59	19:26	01:51
2011	13:38	-00:36	15:26	-02:24	24	19:31	-00:51	18:06	00:26
2012	31:32	-00:55	12:51	06:11	27	22:31	-00:52	16:47	01:52
2013	37:44	-04:41	14:07	11:13	39	25:34	-01:38	16:15	03:44

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	2	Clemente Alonso-McKernan	ESP	08:09:49	08:34:09	00:47:33	04:44:36	02:51:56	21
2	3	Bas Diederen	NED	08:20:35	08:45:27	00:48:19	04:47:14	02:58:52	49
3	66	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:22:04	08:47:01	00:51:22	04:46:59	02:53:49	53
4	5	Konstantin Bachor	GER	08:22:34	08:47:32	00:49:42	04:30:16	03:11:12	54
5	4	Horst Reichel	GER	08:25:25	08:50:32	00:48:29	04:45:26	03:07:56	63
6	12	Herve Faure	FRA	08:27:07	08:52:19	00:51:26	04:51:56	03:02:46	(69)
7	15	Jarmo Hast	FIN	08:28:46	08:54:03	00:50:13	04:52:26	03:02:47	75
8	6	Miquel Blanchart	ESP	08:29:18	08:54:37	00:49:26	04:53:24	02:53:43	78
9	9	Dejan Patrcevic	CRO	08:29:40	08:55:00	00:52:16	04:59:20	02:55:12	80
10	17	Denis Chevrot	FRA	08:30:30	08:55:52	00:47:51	04:55:33	02:57:45	84
11	32	Matt Trautman	ZAF	08:31:18	08:56:42	00:48:15	04:37:31	02:59:18	(88)
12	7	Michael Goehner	GER	08:31:57	08:57:23	00:54:12	04:48:01	03:05:30	93
13	13	Simon Billeau	FRA	08:32:40	08:58:09	00:52:25	04:44:21	03:17:58	(96)
14	10	Joe Skipper	GBR	08:33:26	08:58:57	00:53:00	04:45:43	02:59:02	100
15	56	Domenico Passuello	ITA	08:34:55	09:00:30	00:55:11	04:44:35	03:06:07	103
16	1	Sergio Marques	POR	08:34:56	09:00:31	00:54:54	05:00:49	02:58:44	105
17	64	Anton Blokhin	UKR	08:35:05	09:00:41	00:48:56	04:50:39	03:04:06	107
18	59	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	08:35:14	09:00:50	00:55:11	04:52:36	03:03:34	108
19	63	Christophe Bastie	FRA	08:36:14	09:01:53	00:53:59	04:46:50	03:11:27	111
20	27	Nicholas Ward Munoz	GBR	08:37:25	09:03:08	00:55:27	04:59:13	02:59:25	116
21	53	Sylvain Rota	FRA	08:37:48	09:03:32	00:51:39	04:43:05	03:12:45	117
22	26	Markus Thomschke	GER	08:38:33	09:04:19	00:53:28	04:44:51	03:09:13	119
23	65	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	08:40:33	09:06:25	00:48:37	04:55:52	03:11:33	132
24	11	Georg Swoboda	AUT	08:41:03	09:06:57	00:56:08	04:39:42	03:14:20	135
25	61	Graeme Stewart	GBR	08:42:33	09:08:31	00:53:39	04:52:43	03:04:59	143
26	58	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:43:53	09:09:55	01:00:35	04:52:02	03:06:39	147
27	8	Alberto Casadei	ITA	08:46:13	09:12:22	00:46:58	04:47:27	03:06:31	(158)
28	40	Gergö Molnar	HUN	08:48:37	09:14:53	00:48:37	04:55:16	03:05:05	(166)
29	54	Gudmund Snilstveit	NOR	08:49:12	09:15:30	00:56:55	04:45:12	03:20:03	(167)
30	20	Andres Castillo	COL	08:49:39	09:15:58	00:47:38	04:57:46	03:21:35	172
31	14	Ivan Alvarez Gomez	ESP	08:53:35	09:20:06	00:56:35	05:04:39	03:01:38	190
32	69	Andreas Borch	DEN	08:53:57	09:20:29	00:48:59	04:53:47	03:22:23	(192)
33	35	Vincent Riess	AUT	08:55:14	09:21:50	00:54:17	06:00:32	03:00:10	195
34	44	Jens Kaiser	GER	08:55:37	09:22:14	00:58:00	04:51:13	03:14:20	197
35	47	Kent Horner	ZAF	08:56:09	09:22:48	00:49:18	04:57:03	03:24:09	(199)
36	16	Andreas Niedrig	GER	08:58:38	09:25:24	00:47:36	04:51:34	03:38:38	206
37	49	Herve Banti	MCO	08:59:11	09:25:59	00:52:09	05:06:20	03:19:55	(207)
38	50	Mark Oude Bennink	NED	08:59:40	09:26:29	00:49:03	04:50:15	03:17:52	(209)
39	60	Marcel Bischof	GER	09:03:20	09:30:20	00:57:34	04:58:14	03:20:40	(223)
40	18	Darren Jenkins	AUS	09:03:21	09:30:21	01:03:40	05:01:31	03:00:01	(223)
41	30	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	09:07:14	09:34:26	00:55:57	04:51:59	03:13:18	(236)
42	38	Christian Nilsson	NOR	09:09:17	09:36:35	01:00:13	04:47:23	03:17:11	(245)
43	25	Enric Gussinyer	ESP	09:11:09	09:38:32	00:52:21	04:55:21	03:31:08	253
44	33	Oliver Simon	GBR	09:12:02	09:39:28	00:49:08	04:58:36	03:35:56	259
45	55	Richard Whitfield	GBR	09:12:32	09:39:59	00:56:16	04:53:47	03:15:16	(261)
46	51	Matic Modic	SLO	09:13:05	09:40:34	00:56:09	05:01:21	03:14:26	(262)
47	19	Antonio Jesus Aguilar Conejo	ESP	09:17:41	09:45:24	01:01:22	05:08:56	03:01:18	(278)
48	28	Anders Wagner	DEN	09:19:45	09:47:34	01:03:28	05:06:03	03:09:02	(285)
49	62	Jose Ortega Serran	ESP	09:20:35	09:48:26	00:56:42	05:02:31	03:20:11	(289)
50	24	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	09:21:13	09:49:06	00:52:37	05:34:30	02:52:06	(292)
51	23	Steve Clark	GBR	09:22:29	09:50:26	00:58:07	05:03:39	03:21:18	298
52	21	Luca De Paolis	ITA	09:31:00	09:59:22	00:59:58	05:00:55	03:37:08	332
53	42	Martin Kleinl	AUT	09:32:10	10:00:36	01:01:13	04:52:47	03:32:17	(341)
54	31	Petr Vales	CZE	09:45:39	10:14:45	01:03:22	05:16:39	03:23:43	(376)
55	45	Alejandro Jimenez valverde	ESP	09:46:38	10:15:47	00:57:43	05:07:09	03:33:10	(376)
56	39	Evgeniy Nikitin	RUS	09:48:48	10:18:04	00:51:30	05:15:45	03:56:12	379
57	57	Fernando Cuenllas	ESP	09:51:43	10:21:07	00:55:14	05:10:04	03:48:29	(388)
58	29	Remmert Wielinga	NED	10:02:51	10:32:48	01:17:55	04:52:31	03:49:37	(417)
59	46	Nicolas Houyoux	BEL	10:33:58	11:05:28	00:58:01	05:31:29	03:56:43	(444)
60	67	Florian Kratz	GER	10:42:17	11:14:12	01:04:24	05:54:34	03:52:39	(445)
61	43	Maksim Kalinin	RUS	10:42:57	11:14:54	01:11:14	05:35:42	03:47:25	(445)
62	68	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:33:05	12:07:31	01:11:27	05:55:14	04:38:04	450
	22	Roman Deisenhofer	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	34	Christoph Schlagbauer	AUT	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	36	Jose Luis Rakos	ARG	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	37	Nicolas Pizzol	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	41	Mikolaj Luft	POL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	48	Eduardo Crooke Gonzalez	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	52	Ouilleres Gwenael	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	97	Erika Csomor	HUN	09:08:26	09:35:41	00:58:19	05:14:20	03:13:42	21
2	72	Anja Beranek	GER	09:10:31	09:37:52	00:52:51	05:08:06	03:22:46	(25)
3	99	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	09:13:55	09:41:26	00:50:53	05:09:12	03:21:40	(32)
4	70	Eva Wutti	AUT	09:14:25	09:41:58	00:56:40	05:03:26	03:12:47	(33)
5	93	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:16:59	09:44:40	01:00:30	05:08:04	03:26:28	39
6	73	Daniela Saemmler	GER	09:22:20	09:50:17	00:54:31	05:12:42	03:25:03	50
7	71	Lucie Reed	CZE	09:22:51	09:50:49	00:51:08	05:20:53	03:29:16	52
8	85	Regula Rohrbach	SUI	09:33:52	10:02:23	00:56:50	05:08:59	03:36:00	77
9	77	Elisabeth Gruber	AUT	09:34:46	10:03:20	01:00:24	05:18:33	03:16:46	(79)
10	102	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	09:36:23	10:05:01	01:08:25	05:19:52	03:16:32	82
11	74	Beate Goertz	GER	09:39:48	10:08:37	01:04:49	05:12:56	03:27:52	87
12	82	Carolin Lehrieder	GER	09:43:37	10:12:37	00:56:56	05:29:53	03:15:02	(94)
13	75	Evi Neuscheler	GER	09:45:53	10:15:00	01:03:06	05:15:52	03:27:30	(98)
14	88	Jacqui Gordon	USA	09:49:40	10:18:58	01:00:31	05:27:28	03:39:03	99
15	90	Monique Grossrieder	SUI	09:52:24	10:21:50	01:04:34	05:32:59	03:23:51	105
16	101	Tine Holst	DEN	09:53:29	10:22:58	01:08:01	05:17:49	03:37:36	107
17	80	Joanna Carritt	GBR	09:53:40	10:23:10	01:02:36	05:30:35	03:36:00	108
18	98	Kristin Lie	NOR	09:53:43	10:23:13	01:12:49	05:21:17	03:31:07	109
19	89	Katharina Grohmann	GER	09:55:27	10:25:02	01:14:22	05:26:24	03:21:45	116
20	76	Nina Pekerman	ISR	09:55:55	10:25:32	00:59:00	05:32:15	03:37:16	(118)
21	96	Nicole Woysch	GER	09:58:32	10:28:17	00:58:35	05:30:28	03:47:30	124
22	78	Emma Graaf	SWE	10:04:05	10:34:06	00:59:07	05:31:26	03:43:21	129
23	91	Lena Holmgren	SWE	10:10:30	10:40:50	01:04:04	05:35:51	03:28:32	(137)
24	87	Amy Forshaw	GBR	10:14:51	10:45:24	01:03:41	05:38:14	03:33:21	140
25	100	Eleanor Haresign	GBR	10:17:28	10:48:09	00:59:53	05:31:43	03:37:56	(142)
26	84	Kathrin Walther	GER	10:17:56	10:48:38	01:00:04	05:35:30	03:48:29	142
27	81	Vanessa Pereira	POR	10:19:44	10:50:32	01:02:05	05:39:42	03:43:12	143
28	79	Rahel Bellinga	NED	10:20:31	10:51:21	01:01:57	05:15:26	04:01:04	(145)
29	92	Angela Kuehnlein	GER	10:25:45	10:56:51	01:02:37	05:30:54	03:51:24	(148)
30	95	Line Foss	NOR	10:45:12	11:17:16	01:27:11	05:31:34	03:45:27	(154)
31	86	Anna Rovira garrido	ESP	10:45:42	11:17:47	01:17:35	05:29:09	03:50:24	(155)
	83	Susie Hignett	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	94	Darbi Roberts	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Clemente appears to be the clear favorite, but there is a big group of athletes that will look for a great autumn performance:

• Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 39% (2-1)
• Horst Reichel: 30% (2-1)
• Bas Diederen: 17% (5-1)
• Markus Thomschke: 3% (30-1)
• Michael Goehner: 3% (36-1)
• Jens Petersen-Bach: 2% (55-1)
• Konstantin Bachor: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

The women’s field is a great mixture of young & fast athletes (Eva and Camilla who had some problems and DNF’d in Frankfurt) and solid established athletes such as Erika or Lucie:

• Eva Wutti: 37% (2-1)
• Camilla Pedersen: 31% (2-1)
• Anja Beranek: 19% (4-1)
• Erika Csomor: 5% (19-1)
• Lucie Reed: 3% (36-1)