Ironman Copenhagen 2015 (Aug 23rd) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2010	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:07:39	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:54:36
2011	Tim Van Berkel (AUS)	08:11:15	Rebekah Keat (AUS)	08:52:42
2012	Aaron Farlow (AUS)	08:20:09	Camilla Pedersen (DEN)	09:12:27
2013	Jens Petersen-Bach (DEN)	08:12:41	Eva Wutti (AUT)	08:37:36
2014	Henrik Hyldelund (DEN)	08:03:39	Daniela Ryf (SUI)	08:53:33

From 2010 to 2012 the race was organized as “Challenge Copenhagen” on the same course.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Henrik Hyldelund	DEN	00:46:09	04:16:41	02:56:58	08:03:39
2	Clemente Alonso McKernan	ESP	00:45:58	04:30:30	02:49:24	08:10:53
3	Timo Bracht	GER	00:46:21	04:27:16	02:53:54	08:11:32

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Daniela Ryf	SUI	00:48:37	04:44:09	03:16:15	08:53:33
2	Sofie Goos	BEL	00:54:30	04:56:38	03:10:36	09:06:08
3	Mareen Hufe	GER	00:58:44	04:58:39	03:22:44	09:25:18

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:03:39	Henrik Hyldelund	2014-08-24
Swim	overall	00:45:22	Stephen Bayliss	2011-08-01
Bike	overall	04:16:41	Henrik Hyldelund	2014-08-24
Run	overall	02:38:58	Mads Vittrup	2011-08-01
Total	female	08:37:36	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Swim	female	00:48:29	Ann Lønnberg	2011-08-01
Bike	female	04:39:58	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18
Run	female	03:00:51	Eva Wutti	2013-08-18

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Copenhagen is 22:41.

Race Adjustments for IM Copenhagen

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2010	30:07	01:24	09:53	10:08	18	30:07	01:24	09:53	10:08
2011	23:45	02:48	11:13	06:44	19	26:56	02:06	10:33	08:26
2012	17:45	02:03	10:25	04:25	16	23:52	02:05	10:31	07:06
2013	26:36	00:50	15:15	06:59	20	24:33	01:46	11:42	07:04
2014	15:11	01:39	07:25	02:58	22	22:41	01:45	10:50	06:15

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Copenhagen is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Henrik Hyldelund	DEN	08:03:33	08:46:01	00:45:56	04:16:49	02:55:48	69
2	2	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:15:48	08:42:19	00:48:42	04:34:49	02:47:17	56
3	6	Victor Del Corral	ESP	08:15:52	08:34:39	00:53:30	04:31:25	02:45:56	32
4	18	Jan Raphael	GER	08:18:32	08:37:27	00:46:38	04:32:24	02:54:30	39
5	26	Fraser Cartmell	GBR	08:19:57	08:44:22	00:46:39	04:28:42	02:59:36	66
6	24	Mike Aigroz	SUI	08:20:41	08:49:54	00:46:44	04:32:29	02:56:28	90
7	7	Guilherme Manocchio	BRA	08:22:21	08:52:43	00:48:00	04:34:13	02:55:09	100
8	4	Dejan Patrcevic	CRO	08:27:21	08:51:33	00:51:04	04:40:55	02:50:23	98
9	28	Pontus Lindberg	SWE	08:31:11	09:00:08	00:51:12	04:39:26	02:55:33	(130)
10	23	Anders Christensen	DNK	08:34:08	09:07:28	00:00:00	00:00:00	00:00:00	(159)
11	17	Mike Schifferle	SUI	08:39:51	09:02:20	00:58:16	04:38:09	02:58:26	139
12	15	Andreas Niedrig	GER	08:50:34	09:15:38	00:46:01	04:34:40	03:24:53	202
13	9	Harri Sokk	EST	09:00:34	09:30:12	00:57:03	04:38:56	03:19:35	(259)
14	27	Kasper Ougaard	DEN	09:13:07	09:58:52	00:59:59	04:46:32	03:21:36	(368)
15	13	Michael Louys	BEL	09:15:39	09:46:04	00:59:06	04:51:11	03:20:22	(324)
16	10	Evgeniy Nikitin	RUS	09:19:04	10:25:14	00:49:24	05:05:57	03:18:43	455
17	12	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	09:27:07	09:57:56	01:05:21	04:59:03	03:17:43	363
18	5	Wouter Monchy	BEL	09:28:25	10:05:16	00:48:05	04:52:15	03:43:05	(393)
19	19	Ivan Kharin	RUS	09:29:29	10:14:07	01:05:04	04:58:08	03:21:17	422
20	14	Alexander Wulff	DEN	10:57:14	11:39:50	01:08:22	05:40:26	04:03:25	(495)
21	25	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:14:18	12:11:01	01:08:24	05:36:48	04:24:06	496
22	8	Mathias Nagel	GER	13:02:42	14:08:54	01:26:23	05:53:26	05:37:53	(498)
	3	Luca Cozza	ITA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	11	Alberto Perassi		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	20	Gilian Oriet	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	22	Gili Oriol	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Among the participants Fraser Cartmell (3.615 points) and Guilherme Manocchio (3.540 points) are in the best position to qualify. In addition, Mike Aigroz (2.825) and Mike Schifferle (2.525) could get an August slot with at least a podium finish or better.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	36	Corinne Abraham	GBR	09:00:25	09:23:37	00:57:16	04:55:20	03:02:48	16
2	29	Michelle Vesterby	DEN	09:03:43	09:36:09	00:50:04	04:56:44	03:11:55	40
3	38	Sofie Goos	BEL	09:06:30	09:36:49	00:54:04	04:57:40	03:09:45	42
4	40	Sonja Tajsich	GER	09:08:52	09:31:32	01:00:04	04:56:55	03:06:54	28
5	34	Lucie Reed	CZE	09:17:23	09:45:18	00:49:00	05:06:08	03:17:15	55
6	33	Astrid Stienen	GER	09:19:22	09:44:36	00:56:42	05:01:19	03:16:20	53
7	35	Regula Rohrbach	SUI	09:20:07	09:56:24	00:55:01	04:54:30	03:25:36	81
8	30	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	09:21:05	10:07:08	01:05:55	05:00:59	03:09:12	108
9	32	Kathrin Walther	GER	09:36:37	10:20:34	00:58:03	05:05:36	03:27:58	141
10	31	Helena Herrero Gomez	ESP	09:50:29	10:22:25	00:58:03	05:30:04	03:17:22	(146)
11	37	Alyssa Godesky	USA	10:00:38	10:32:40	01:01:02	05:22:34	03:32:01	164
12	39	Vicky Gill	GBR	10:40:43	11:22:15	01:08:15	05:45:17	03:42:11	(183)

With Michelle Vesterby and Sonja Tajsich there are two athletes looking for just a few more points to make it to Kona – a Top 7 is probably enough for them. Sofie Goos could also still qualify, but she will need a win for a safe slot.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Henrik Hyldelund: 31% (2-1)
• Victor Del Corral: 17% (5-1)
• Fraser Cartmell: 14% (6-1)
• Jens Petersen-Bach: 12% (7-1)
• Jan Raphael: 10% (9-1)
• Guilherme Manocchio: 9% (10-1)
• Mike Aigroz: 6% (16-1)

Female Race Participants

• Corinne Abraham: 31% (2-1)
• Michelle Vesterby: 28% (3-1)
• Sofie Goos: 24% (3-1)
• Sonja Tajsich: 9% (10-1)
• Lucie Reed: 4% (22-1)
• Regula Rohrbach: 2% (50-1)