Ironman Cozumel (Nov 27th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2009	Rutger Beke (BEL)	08:18:40	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	09:06:58
2010	Andy Potts (USA)	08:15:57	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	09:07:08
2011	Michael Lovato (USA)	08:23:52	Simone Braendli (SUI)	09:14:08
2012	Ivan Rana (ESP)	08:15:07	Mary Beth Ellis (USA)	09:15:38
2013	Michael Weiss (AUT)	07:55:23	Rachel Joyce (GBR)	08:52:28
2014	Michael Weiss (AUT)	08:12:16	Nicola Spirig (SUI)	09:14:07
2015	Stefan Schmid (GER)	08:12:27	Corinne Abraham (GBR)	09:06:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Stefan Schmid	GER	00:47:02	04:26:55	02:53:44	08:12:27
2	Matthew Russell	USA	00:49:41	04:32:17	02:47:49	08:14:10
3	Michael Weiss	AUT	00:49:40	04:29:41	03:00:13	08:24:24

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Corinne Abraham	GBR	00:53:49	05:01:15	03:07:38	09:06:40
2	Leanda Cave	GBR	00:47:21	05:05:22	03:16:17	09:13:29
3	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	00:48:50	05:06:25	03:14:14	09:14:08

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:12:16	Michael Weiss	2014-11-30
Swim	overall	00:41:48	John Kenny	2009-11-29
Bike	overall	04:19:17	Michael Lovato	2011-11-27
Run	overall	02:44:05	Ivan Rana	2012-11-25
Total	female	09:06:40	Corinne Abraham	2015-11-29
Swim	female	00:46:39	Bree Wee	2009-11-29
Bike	female	04:45:20	Simone Braendli	2011-11-27
Run	female	02:57:02	Kelly Williamson	2014-11-30

Rachel Joyce’s winning time of 8:52:28 from 2013 is faster than what I have listed as the course record (similarly for the male winner), but that year the swim was shortened and therefore the times are not comparable.

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Cozumel is 05:50.

Race Adjustments for IM Cozumel

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2009	09:23	06:57	01:41	-00:40	31 of 34	09:23	06:57	01:41	-00:40
2010	07:36	00:56	13:27	-04:56	35 of 42	08:29	03:56	07:34	-02:48
2011	11:05	01:42	12:44	02:13	46	09:21	03:12	09:17	-01:08
2012	05:27	-04:03	07:10	-00:20	61	08:23	01:23	08:46	-00:56
2014	-02:36	02:38	-01:01	00:42	39 of 53	06:11	01:38	06:48	-00:36
2015	04:06	04:28	03:43	01:25	34 of 49	05:50	02:06	06:17	-00:16

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Cozumel is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 100.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	8	Chris Leiferman	USA	08:16:38	08:32:09	00:49:24	04:37:11	02:45:02	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(29)
2	2	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:16:56	08:23:29	00:46:32	04:28:58	02:56:26	73% +13% -13% (21)	10
3	1	Michael Weiss	AUT	08:18:18	08:34:16	00:51:13	04:22:04	03:00:01	91% +7% -1% (16)	37
4	3	Matthew Russell	USA	08:24:28	08:43:28	00:52:56	04:32:13	02:54:19	48% +33% -19% (40)	67
5	5	Tim Don	GBR	08:24:57	08:32:43	00:46:06	04:36:38	02:57:12	64% +0% -36% (4)	32
6	25	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	08:25:58	08:29:23	00:48:54	04:40:37	02:51:28	88% +0% -12% (8)	24
7	11	Kevin Collington	USA	08:26:08	08:44:28	00:46:40	04:38:14	02:56:14	59% +0% -41% (3)	(75)
8	7	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:30:03	08:45:28	00:46:16	04:33:19	03:05:28	19% +33% -47% (13)	80
9	14	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	ESP	08:33:29	08:36:31	00:47:39	04:47:25	02:53:24	94% +6% -0% (14)	46
10	26	Trevor Delsaut	FRA	08:33:39	08:51:58	00:51:00	04:40:58	02:56:41	41% +8% -51% (24)	98
11	37	Mark Oude Bennink	NED	08:35:42	08:52:55	00:46:31	04:39:01	03:05:09	14% +61% -26% (8)	104
12	9	Guilherme Manocchio	BRA	08:36:49	08:43:50	00:48:50	04:40:58	03:02:01	58% +22% -20% (12)	69
13	18	Barrett Brandon	USA	08:38:22	08:54:21	00:45:23	04:43:21	03:04:38	55% +0% -45% (7)	106
14	15	Anton Blokhin	UKR	08:40:02	08:52:32	00:47:22	04:44:17	03:03:23	62% +2% -35% (20)	100
15	13	Stephen Bayliss	GBR	08:41:15	08:56:27	00:46:03	04:43:14	03:06:59	33% +3% -64% (47)	(115)
16	4	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:44:06	08:46:50	00:51:32	04:41:30	03:06:04	72% +6% -23% (43)	84
17	33	Matic Modic *	SLO	08:45:40	09:03:26	00:53:18	04:47:38	02:59:43	40% +35% -24% (9)	144
18	28	Thomas Gerlach *	USA	08:47:28	09:01:16	00:52:15	04:39:04	03:11:08	39% +11% -51% (21)	(136)
19	6	Jozsef Major	HUN	08:49:53	08:54:57	00:55:58	04:42:48	03:06:08	81% +4% -15% (31)	109
20	24	Scott Defilippis	USA	08:51:19	09:11:49	00:54:24	04:53:30	02:58:25	32% +29% -39% (22)	(167)
21	21	Karl-Johan Danielsson	SWE	08:51:50	09:04:01	00:49:32	04:38:56	03:18:22	39% +21% -40% (11)	147
22	31	Andrey Lyatskiy	RUS	08:52:49	09:00:26	00:47:45	04:51:49	03:08:14	87% +4% -9% (27)	131
23	12	Christopher Bagg	USA	08:54:10	09:32:01	00:51:27	04:45:10	03:12:33	6% +27% -67% (13)	(220)
24	41	Josep Vinolas	ESP	08:57:54	09:08:57	00:54:25	04:49:20	03:09:09	15% +66% -19% (4)	(161)
25	16	Raymond Botelho *	USA	09:12:05	09:41:16	00:52:24	04:44:07	03:30:34	25% +28% -47% (15)	(240)
26	27	Frederic Garcia	FRA	09:23:29	09:46:54	00:54:55	05:06:02	03:17:32	32% +0% -68% (3)	(254)
27	17	Scott Bradley	USA	09:25:33	09:35:01	01:00:12	04:53:47	03:26:34	100% +0% -0% (3)	226
28	20	Emanuele Ciotti *	ITA	09:29:41	09:37:36	00:51:01	04:55:35	03:38:04	43% +17% -40% (5)	231
29	36	Gilian Oriet	SUI	09:49:51	10:08:55	00:55:30	05:03:10	03:46:11	24% +6% -70% (14)	274
30	40	Jorge Vazquez	MEX	09:55:44	10:17:24	00:51:42	05:07:36	03:51:26	42% +0% -58% (3)	(281)
31	38	Sergio Quezada	MEX	09:57:05	10:19:51	00:50:10	05:07:36	03:54:19	47% +7% -46% (13)	282
32	19	Eduardo Chong	MEX	10:02:53	10:24:49	00:58:35	05:18:53	03:40:24	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(286)
33	23	Reinaldo De Oliveira	BRA	10:12:56	10:26:29	00:59:09	05:18:27	03:50:21	43% +0% -57% (7)	286
34	22	Rod De Kanel	FRA	10:19:40	10:55:06	00:50:42	05:09:35	04:14:23	23% +0% -77% (3)	(293)
	30	Philipp Koutny	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (2)	(n/a)
	32	Bruno Matheus	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	34	Jeremy Morel	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	39	Jarrod Shoemaker	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	42	Derek Yorek	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	51	Corinne Abraham *	GBR	09:10:09	09:21:26	00:56:19	04:59:22	03:09:28	83% +17% -0% (9)	11
2	54	Michelle Vesterby *	DEN	09:11:40	09:21:53	00:49:44	05:01:26	03:15:30	79% +3% -18% (19)	12
3	53	Angela Naeth *	CAN	09:11:53	09:32:29	00:56:22	04:55:31	03:15:00	25% +44% -31% (5)	(30)
4	52	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	09:15:36	09:19:29	00:50:08	05:02:55	03:17:33	86% +5% -9% (8)	8
5	55	Amanda Stevens *	USA	09:25:28	09:34:44	00:49:21	05:09:54	03:21:14	44% +15% -41% (19)	34
6	58	Celine Schaerer	SUI	09:27:53	09:39:07	00:47:46	05:10:35	03:24:32	81% +0% -19% (6)	40
7	62	Amber Ferreira	USA	09:45:22	09:50:23	00:54:56	05:14:51	03:30:35	51% +18% -31% (16)	59
8	63	Kelly Fillnow	USA	09:46:49	10:05:06	01:01:20	05:19:19	03:21:10	57% +43% -0% (10)	86
9	61	Lauren Capone	USA	09:49:18	10:07:42	00:54:49	05:40:42	03:08:47	51% +0% -49% (2)	(90)
10	72	Amanda Wendorff	USA	09:56:47	10:15:26	00:55:15	05:14:49	03:41:43	59% +0% -41% (2)	(102)
11	69	Caroline St-Pierre	CAN	09:59:07	10:12:10	00:54:56	05:38:16	03:20:55	100% +0% -0% (2)	(98)
12	65	April Gellatly	USA	10:00:49	10:22:32	00:54:49	05:23:28	03:37:33	27% +14% -59% (15)	114
13	64	Annett Finger	GER	10:10:54	10:23:20	01:00:45	05:24:14	03:40:55	18% +0% -82% (3)	(115)
14	66	Amy Javens *	USA	10:14:22	10:23:31	01:04:22	05:21:19	03:43:40	100% +0% -0% (5)	116
15	68	Molly Roohi	USA	10:15:00	10:21:59	01:01:37	05:31:04	03:37:19	100% +0% -0% (5)	111
16	60	Neilia Bliss	USA	10:21:00	10:30:44	01:01:01	05:35:13	03:39:47	100% +0% -0% (3)	128
17	70	Nicole Valentine	USA	10:28:27	10:48:05	01:02:09	05:55:17	03:26:00	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(140)
18	73	Jennifer Lentzke	CAN	10:45:44	10:56:55	01:10:43	05:39:34	03:50:26	72% +0% -28% (4)	(142)
19	71	Amy Vantassel	USA	10:50:01	11:10:20	01:08:16	05:55:03	03:41:43	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(147)
20	59	Palmira Alvarez	MEX	10:58:38	11:12:29	01:12:31	05:43:31	03:57:35	100% +0% -0% (2)	(147)
	56	Lauren Brandon	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	57	Rachel McBride	CAN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	67	Amelia McCracken	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Note: Athletes with a ‘*’ are also registered for another race within 8 days.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Frederik Van Lierde: 33% (2-1)
• Matthew Russell: 19% (4-1)
• Michael Weiss: 17% (5-1)
• Chris Leiferman: 11% (8-1)
• Tim Don: 8% (12-1)

Female Race Participants

• Corinne Abraham: 49% (1-1)
• Angela Naeth: 26% (3-1)
• Michelle Vesterby: 14% (6-1)
• Camilla Pedersen: 8% (11-1)