Ironman Fortaleza 2014 (Nov 9th) – Predictions

This is the first race on this course. Therefore, there are no previous results and course ratings. The expected times are based on a „neutral“ course, but usually courses are quite a bit faster (my guess is in the area of 10 to 15 minutes).

Updates

There are a few updates to the published start list that the athletes have announced:

• Brandon Marsh has ended his 2014 season.
• Tim O’Donnell will probably start in Arizona.
• Mirinda Carfrae has announced she will not start in Fortalezza this year.
• Leanda Cave has ended her season with a severe cold.

(Nov 8th) After registration, a few more athletes won’t be starting:

• Vanessa Gianini
• Hillary Biscay
• Igor Amorelli
• Camilla Lindholm (still on the list, but won’t be starting after placing 2nd in Florida)

There are also two additions:

• Bib #46 – Daniel Fontana (ITA) – expected at 8:46:37
• Bib #47 – Antonio Marcos de Souza (BRA)

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Fortaleza has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	41	Eneko Llanos	ESP	08:27:43	08:28:12	00:48:40	04:38:42	02:55:21	10
2	22	Timothy O’Donnell	USA	08:39:09	08:48:33	00:47:43	04:44:19	03:02:07	52
3	30	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:49:06	08:45:08	00:48:23	04:48:27	03:07:16	46
4	34	Brandon Marsh	USA	08:49:59	08:51:28	00:48:04	04:51:00	03:05:55	62
5	36	Stefan Schmid	GER	08:53:49	08:50:30	00:54:07	04:51:31	03:03:11	56
6	27	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:04:43	09:10:09	00:48:40	04:53:50	03:17:13	143
7	35	Petr Vabrousek	CZE	09:04:47	09:01:04	00:56:18	04:56:59	03:06:31	107
8	40	Guilherme Manocchio	BRA	09:05:18	09:08:11	00:50:05	05:03:55	03:06:17	136
9	24	Andres Castillo	COL	09:10:40	09:15:58	00:48:00	04:55:13	03:22:28	170
10	25	Patrick Jaberg	SUI	09:11:21	09:14:01	00:54:28	04:58:59	03:12:53	159
11	39	Bryan Rhodes	NZL	09:11:56	09:29:05	00:48:24	04:55:22	03:23:09	(224)
12	32	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	09:13:35	09:14:34	00:50:02	05:13:43	03:04:50	163
13	38	Frank Silvestrin	BRA	09:15:46	09:21:43	00:50:19	05:06:54	03:13:32	197
14	29	Raul Furtado	BRA	09:16:22	09:32:45	00:53:20	04:53:11	03:24:51	238
15	31	Blake Becker	USA	09:17:28	09:36:49	00:53:38	05:02:56	03:15:55	258
16	26	Luiz Francisco Ferreira	BRA	09:18:32	09:20:16	00:47:47	05:07:56	03:17:50	190
17	45	Ciro Violin	BRA	09:18:32	09:27:33	00:52:00	05:03:34	03:17:59	(222)
18	44	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	09:21:10	09:23:24	00:48:54	05:13:44	03:13:32	(206)
19	28	Felipe De Oliveira Manente	BRA	09:24:00	09:40:31	00:53:48	05:05:32	03:19:41	(272)
20	23	Raphael Galvao Menezes dos santos	BRA	09:28:10	09:39:35	00:52:26	05:16:13	03:14:30	(270)
21	37	Henrik Oftedal	NOR	09:32:53	09:35:37	01:03:11	04:59:39	03:25:02	(252)
22	33	Jordan Bryden	CAN	09:36:29	09:43:32	00:50:05	05:15:50	03:25:34	287
	21	Alexandre Aguiar Moura	BRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	42	Ivan Risti	ITA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Mirinda Carfrae	AUS	09:07:11	09:07:03	00:55:32	05:10:02	02:56:38	1
2	11	Leanda Cave	GBR	09:27:37	09:28:12	00:51:06	05:13:03	03:18:27	14
3	13	Erika Csomor	HUN	09:40:56	09:35:43	00:59:20	05:18:34	03:18:02	26
4	9	Jessie Donavan	USA	09:43:52	09:41:25	01:07:35	05:11:27	03:19:50	33
5	3	Vanessa Gianinni	BRA	09:45:32	09:52:14	00:56:20	05:18:41	03:25:31	(55)
6	6	Ariane Monticeli	BRA	09:54:18	10:01:40	01:02:41	05:30:57	03:15:40	80
7	8	Haley Chura	USA	09:54:47	09:50:58	00:50:11	05:29:40	03:29:56	51
8	7	Mette Pettersen Moe	NOR	10:01:55	10:14:00	00:53:42	05:23:09	03:40:04	(101)
9	14	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	10:02:04	10:04:35	01:10:25	05:23:02	03:23:37	83
10	4	Mariana Andrade	BRA	10:03:14	10:20:44	01:01:25	05:17:30	03:39:19	111
11	2	Ana Lidia Borba	BRA	10:12:13	10:22:41	00:57:01	05:21:01	03:49:11	115
12	10	Hillary Biscay	USA	10:12:58	10:12:19	00:53:24	05:35:42	03:38:51	98
13	5	Caroline Gregory	USA	10:20:12	10:32:06	00:59:06	05:50:13	03:25:52	139
14	12	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:28:24	10:28:08	00:59:27	05:34:09	03:49:48	134

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The clear favorite is Eneko Llanos who had a DNF in Kona and will be looking for some KPR points in order to qualify for Kona 2015:

• Eneko Llanos: 70% (1-1)
• Igor Amorelli: 15% (6-1)
• Stefan Schmid: 8% (11-1)
• Balazs Csoke: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

Is she starts in Fortaleza, Leanda will be the pre-race favorite (but she is also on the list for Florida and might also consider Arizona):

• Leanda Cave: 52% (1-1)
• Erika Csomor: 19% (4-1)
• Jessie Donavan: 13% (7-1)
• Ariane Monticeli: 8% (12-1)
• Vanessa Gianinni: 5% (20-1)
• Haley Chura: 2% (50-1)