Ironman Germany 2014 (July 6th) – Predictions

This race is a great chance to score some points and a chance to win some nice prizes by picking the top five athletes on IM Predictions!

Luke Dragstra and I have also put out an episode of the IM Predictions podcast discussing the field.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Normann Stadler (GER)	08:20:50	Lisa Bentley (CAN)	09:15:31
2006	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:13:40	Andrea Steinbecher (GER)	09:16:17
2007	Timo Bracht (GER)	08:09:15	Nicole Leder (GER)	09:04:11
2008	Chris McCormack (AUS)	07:59:55	Chrissie Wellington (GBR)	08:51:24
2009	Timo Bracht (GER)	07:59:15	Sandra Wallenhorst (GER)	08:58:08
2010	Andreas Raelert (GER)	08:05:15	Sandra Wallenhorst (GER)	09:04:27
2011	Faris Al-Sultan (GER)	08:13:50	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	09:12:13
2012	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:03:31	Caroline Steffen (SUI)	08:52:33
2013	Eneko Llanos (ESP)	07:59:58	Camilla Pedersen (DEN)	08:56:01

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Eneko Llanos	ESP	00:46:10	04:25:32	02:44:12	07:59:58
2	Jan Raphael	GER	00:46:12	04:25:41	02:51:21	08:07:19
3	Bas Diederen	NED	00:46:10	04:34:00	02:47:58	08:12:07

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Camilla Pedersen	DEN	00:48:08	04:54:20	03:09:29	08:56:01
2	Jodie Swallow	GBR	00:46:09	04:50:36	03:17:40	08:58:43
3	Kristin Moeller	GER	00:57:06	05:03:10	02:57:13	09:01:55

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	07:59:15	Timo Bracht	2009-07-05
Swim	overall	00:43:55	Andi Boecherer	2008-07-06
Bike	overall	04:20:25	Marino Vanhoenacker	2013-07-07
Run	overall	02:42:33	Timo Bracht	2008-07-06
Total	female	08:51:24	Chrissie Wellington	2008-07-06
Swim	female	00:45:04	Amanda Stevens	2012-07-08
Bike	female	04:50:36	Jodie Swallow	2013-07-07
Run	female	02:57:13	Kristin Moeller	2013-07-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Germany is 12:54.

Race Adjustments for IM Germany

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	-03:26	00:41	04:40	-04:09	5	-03:26	00:41	04:40	-04:09
2006	11:55	n/a	n/a	n/a	18	04:15	00:41	04:40	-04:09
2007	20:50	01:39	13:38	04:52	22	09:46	01:10	09:09	00:22
2008	23:07	04:26	08:03	07:46	21	13:06	02:16	08:47	02:50
2009	17:15	03:00	13:00	00:03	17	13:56	02:27	09:50	02:08
2010	08:10	00:42	03:53	01:07	29	12:58	02:06	08:39	01:56
2011	09:13	01:25	05:34	00:48	37	12:26	01:59	08:08	01:44
2012	10:34	03:17	04:53	02:10	33	12:12	02:10	07:40	01:48
2013	18:27	02:13	09:07	05:25	62	12:54	02:10	07:51	02:15

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Germany has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 125k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	3	Sebastian Kienle	GER	08:12:10	08:24:12	00:51:25	04:30:46	02:57:07	6
2	1	Frederik Van Lierde	BEL	08:12:32	08:24:35	00:47:45	04:35:39	02:55:43	7
3	5	Andreas Raelert	GER	08:14:00	08:26:05	00:49:14	04:44:41	02:51:17	(11)
4	7	Clemente Alonso-McKernan	ESP	08:20:40	08:32:55	00:47:37	04:46:58	02:51:54	(20)
5		Bas Diederen	NED	08:24:07	08:36:27	00:47:50	04:44:23	02:57:09	28
6	2	Jan Raphael	GER	08:28:31	08:40:58	00:48:38	04:47:04	03:00:59	42
7	8	Miquel Blanchart	ESP	08:29:44	08:42:12	00:49:05	04:51:48	02:53:28	46
8	26	Jens Petersen-Bach	DEN	08:30:17	08:42:46	00:52:14	04:49:14	02:55:48	50
9	9	Denis Chevrot	FRA	08:30:29	08:42:58	00:47:23	04:52:37	02:56:30	51
10	38	Ronnie Schildknecht	SUI	08:31:41	08:44:12	00:52:41	04:44:05	03:01:55	54
11		Bert Jammaer	BEL	08:33:19	08:45:53	00:49:04	04:45:55	03:05:00	58
12	27	David Plese	SVN	08:34:45	08:47:21	00:54:11	04:46:48	02:59:22	63
13	14	Marc Duelsen	GER	08:35:49	08:48:26	00:52:41	04:39:20	02:59:50	(66)
14	6	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:44:11	08:57:00	00:48:14	04:46:40	03:05:23	(108)
15	37	Michael Davidson	ZAF	08:53:14	09:06:17	00:55:05	04:53:53	03:03:35	(156)
16	18	Jens Kaiser	GER	08:53:38	09:06:41	00:57:26	04:48:20	03:12:26	156
17	36	Benjamin Sanson	FRA	08:55:49	09:08:56	00:46:24	05:34:51	03:32:41	165
18	15	Ivan Alvarez Gomez	ESP	09:02:35	09:15:51	00:56:42	05:06:06	03:05:07	191
19	10	Hannes Cool	BEL	09:05:19	09:18:40	00:51:46	04:52:54	03:16:13	(198)
20	20	Carlos Lopez Diaz	ESP	09:12:48	09:26:19	00:47:02	04:50:46	03:26:55	(231)
21	17	Ivan Jezko	SVK	09:22:47	09:36:33	00:58:43	04:59:36	03:25:03	(265)
22	25	Stefano Paoli	ITA	09:25:27	09:39:17	00:53:50	04:58:02	03:40:52	282
23	29	Alfred Rahm	GER	09:32:33	09:46:33	01:01:22	05:09:04	03:25:28	310
24	23	Brendan Naef	CAN	09:38:11	09:52:20	00:57:39	05:17:59	03:27:43	332
25	16	Yeun Sik Ham	KOR	09:39:02	09:53:12	01:04:00	05:09:43	02:53:26	(336)
26	22	Benjamin Munizaga	CHI	09:47:47	10:02:10	00:51:16	05:05:25	03:49:16	(363)
27	19	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	09:51:28	10:05:56	00:59:47	05:21:26	03:34:57	369
28	11	Kurt Debouck	BEL	10:20:06	10:35:16	00:55:57	05:13:48	04:03:19	(422)
29	34	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:41:28	11:58:38	01:11:53	05:58:21	04:37:41	445
	4	Jan Frodeno	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	12	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	13	Martijn Dekker	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	21	Michael Louys	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	24	Mark Oude Bennink	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	28	Lukas Polan	CZE	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	30	Evert Scheltinga	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	31	Marcel Tuvmelme	SVN	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	32	Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	33	Damien With	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	35	Vincent Depuiset	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating	Rank
1	127	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:04:21	09:17:40	00:51:00	05:07:44	03:13:23	5
2	102	Jodie Swallow	GBR	09:07:05	09:20:28	00:47:53	05:02:05	03:23:18	7
3	124	Eva Wutti	AUT	09:10:04	09:23:32	00:56:06	05:00:26	03:10:55	(9)
4	105	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:12:26	09:25:57	00:51:55	05:14:02	03:13:16	11
5		Camilla Pedersen	DEN	09:13:38	09:27:11	00:50:23	05:06:08	03:19:42	(17)
6	103	Sonja Tajsich	GER	09:15:12	09:28:47	01:02:13	05:14:52	03:07:33	17
7	128	Caitlin Snow	USA	09:16:19	09:29:56	00:54:45	05:26:30	03:02:15	19
8	119	Amy Marsh	USA	09:19:50	09:33:32	00:51:41	05:05:37	03:31:23	21
9	118	Elizabeth Lyles	USA	09:19:51	09:33:33	00:58:11	05:20:49	03:08:31	22
10	104	Natascha Badmann	SUI	09:20:08	09:33:50	01:01:34	05:06:46	03:17:12	24
11	107	Corinne Abraham	GBR	09:20:44	09:34:27	01:00:24	05:19:19	03:09:30	27
12	108	Simone Braendli	SUI	09:23:50	09:37:38	00:51:29	05:16:05	03:23:49	32
13	126	Kristin Moeller	GER	09:24:06	09:37:54	01:03:38	05:21:06	03:06:54	33
14	114	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:27:30	09:41:23	01:00:30	05:08:19	03:26:40	43
15	125	Lucie Reed	CZE	09:28:05	09:41:59	00:50:38	05:17:42	03:27:15	45
16	116	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	09:41:45	09:55:59	01:08:26	05:21:17	03:16:18	79
17	110	Astrid Ganzow	GER	09:46:44	10:01:05	00:59:22	05:10:29	03:28:50	(91)
18	115	Katja Konschak	GER	09:47:53	10:02:16	00:52:28	05:29:09	03:30:10	92
19	111	Beate Goertz	GER	09:51:29	10:05:57	01:05:44	05:08:29	03:27:09	(96)
20	129	Stefanie Adam	BEL	09:54:27	10:09:00	00:55:50	05:07:52	03:44:26	(100)
21	112	Katharina Grohmann	GER	09:59:41	10:14:21	01:14:52	05:28:17	03:18:58	114
22	113	Helena Herrero Gomez	ESP	10:06:16	10:21:06	01:01:42	05:38:45	03:15:21	(127)
23	123	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:07:43	10:22:35	00:58:47	05:32:02	03:43:14	128
24	120	Yasuko Miyazaki	JPN	10:25:41	10:40:59	01:01:05	05:57:37	03:41:06	(145)
25	106	Natascha Schmitt	GER	10:29:09	10:44:33	00:53:41	05:38:48	03:51:46	(147)
26	109	Line Margareta Foss	NOR	11:13:41	11:30:10	01:29:25	05:46:35	03:45:46	(156)
	121	Jenny Schulz	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	117	Annabel Luxford	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	122	Verena Walter	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

As usual, IM Germany has a stellar field. Based on previous results, Freddie Van Lierde is my favorite. However, the race will be very interesting with the mix of experienced athletes probably focused more on Kona (Freddie, Sebastian Kienle), athletes moving up to the full distance (Jan Frodeno), athletes coming back from not so good results (Andreas Raelert, Ronnie Schildknecht, Jens Petersen-Bach) and those probably fully focused on Frankfurt (Jan Raphael and most of the other Germans). Almost impossible to predict what is going to happen!

• Frederik Van Lierde: 45% (1-1)
• Andreas Raelert: 27% (3-1)
• Ronnie Schildknecht: 12% (8-1)
• Sebastian Kienle: 8% (11-1)
• Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 5% (19-1)
• Jan Raphael: 3% (29-1)

Female Race Participants

The female race also has an amazing depth of talent, but is probably a bit easier to foresee than the men’s. Mary Beth Ellis and Jodie Swallow are always solid and at the front of the race. Last year’s winner Camilla Pedersen is back to defend her title – she’s had a tumultuous year with a bike crash, induced coma, an amazing recovery and successful 70.3 races in the spring. It’s hard to say what she’ll be able to do over the full distance. Then there are Eva Wutti (who needs a good result after a DNF in Texas), and a lot of German (Sonja Tajsich, Kristin Möller) and international athletes (Elizabeth Lyles, Gina Crawford). There are a few athletes on the list that are probably DNS – Annabel Luxford is injured, and Simone Braendli and Cait Snow have entered Frankfurt only as a back-up option if their primary IMs in Austria and France don’t go so well.

• Eva Wutti: 29% (2-1)
• Mary Beth Ellis: 24% (3-1)
• Camilla Pedersen: 15% (6-1)
• Jodie Swallow: 8% (11-1)
• Sonja Tajsich: 7% (13-1)
• Caitlin Snow: 6% (15-1)
• Elizabeth Lyles: 3% (34-1)
• Gina Crawford: 3% (39-1)
• Kristin Moeller: 2% (57-1)