Ironman Germany 2014 (July 6th) – Predictions

This race is a great chance to score some points and a chance to win some nice prizes by picking the top five athletes on IM Predictions!

Luke Dragstra and I have also put out an episode of the IM Predictions podcast discussing the field.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Normann Stadler (GER) 08:20:50 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:15:31
2006 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:13:40 Andrea Steinbecher (GER) 09:16:17
2007 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:09:15 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:04:11
2008 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:59:55 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:51:24
2009 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:59:15 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 08:58:08
2010 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:05:15 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 09:04:27
2011 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:13:50 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:12:13
2012 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:03:31 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:52:33
2013 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:58 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 08:56:01

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eneko Llanos ESP 00:46:10 04:25:32 02:44:12 07:59:58
2 Jan Raphael GER 00:46:12 04:25:41 02:51:21 08:07:19
3 Bas Diederen NED 00:46:10 04:34:00 02:47:58 08:12:07

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Camilla Pedersen DEN 00:48:08 04:54:20 03:09:29 08:56:01
2 Jodie Swallow GBR 00:46:09 04:50:36 03:17:40 08:58:43
3 Kristin Moeller GER 00:57:06 05:03:10 02:57:13 09:01:55

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:59:15 Timo Bracht 2009-07-05
Swim overall 00:43:55 Andi Boecherer 2008-07-06
Bike overall 04:20:25 Marino Vanhoenacker 2013-07-07
Run overall 02:42:33 Timo Bracht 2008-07-06
Total female 08:51:24 Chrissie Wellington 2008-07-06
Swim female 00:45:04 Amanda Stevens 2012-07-08
Bike female 04:50:36 Jodie Swallow 2013-07-07
Run female 02:57:13 Kristin Moeller 2013-07-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Germany is 12:54.

Race Adjustments for IM Germany

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:26 00:41 04:40 -04:09 5 -03:26 00:41 04:40 -04:09
2006 11:55 n/a n/a n/a 18 04:15 00:41 04:40 -04:09
2007 20:50 01:39 13:38 04:52 22 09:46 01:10 09:09 00:22
2008 23:07 04:26 08:03 07:46 21 13:06 02:16 08:47 02:50
2009 17:15 03:00 13:00 00:03 17 13:56 02:27 09:50 02:08
2010 08:10 00:42 03:53 01:07 29 12:58 02:06 08:39 01:56
2011 09:13 01:25 05:34 00:48 37 12:26 01:59 08:08 01:44
2012 10:34 03:17 04:53 02:10 33 12:12 02:10 07:40 01:48
2013 18:27 02:13 09:07 05:25 62 12:54 02:10 07:51 02:15

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Germany has 4000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 125k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 3 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:12:10 08:24:12 00:51:25 04:30:46 02:57:07 6
2 1 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:12:32 08:24:35 00:47:45 04:35:39 02:55:43 7
3 5 Andreas Raelert GER 08:14:00 08:26:05 00:49:14 04:44:41 02:51:17 (11)
4 7 Clemente Alonso-McKernan ESP 08:20:40 08:32:55 00:47:37 04:46:58 02:51:54 (20)
5 Bas Diederen NED 08:24:07 08:36:27 00:47:50 04:44:23 02:57:09 28
6 2 Jan Raphael GER 08:28:31 08:40:58 00:48:38 04:47:04 03:00:59 42
7 8 Miquel Blanchart ESP 08:29:44 08:42:12 00:49:05 04:51:48 02:53:28 46
8 26 Jens Petersen-Bach DEN 08:30:17 08:42:46 00:52:14 04:49:14 02:55:48 50
9 9 Denis Chevrot FRA 08:30:29 08:42:58 00:47:23 04:52:37 02:56:30 51
10 38 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:31:41 08:44:12 00:52:41 04:44:05 03:01:55 54
11 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:33:19 08:45:53 00:49:04 04:45:55 03:05:00 58
12 27 David Plese SVN 08:34:45 08:47:21 00:54:11 04:46:48 02:59:22 63
13 14 Marc Duelsen GER 08:35:49 08:48:26 00:52:41 04:39:20 02:59:50 (66)
14 6 Johann Ackermann GER 08:44:11 08:57:00 00:48:14 04:46:40 03:05:23 (108)
15 37 Michael Davidson ZAF 08:53:14 09:06:17 00:55:05 04:53:53 03:03:35 (156)
16 18 Jens Kaiser GER 08:53:38 09:06:41 00:57:26 04:48:20 03:12:26 156
17 36 Benjamin Sanson FRA 08:55:49 09:08:56 00:46:24 05:34:51 03:32:41 165
18 15 Ivan Alvarez Gomez ESP 09:02:35 09:15:51 00:56:42 05:06:06 03:05:07 191
19 10 Hannes Cool BEL 09:05:19 09:18:40 00:51:46 04:52:54 03:16:13 (198)
20 20 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 09:12:48 09:26:19 00:47:02 04:50:46 03:26:55 (231)
21 17 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:22:47 09:36:33 00:58:43 04:59:36 03:25:03 (265)
22 25 Stefano Paoli ITA 09:25:27 09:39:17 00:53:50 04:58:02 03:40:52 282
23 29 Alfred Rahm GER 09:32:33 09:46:33 01:01:22 05:09:04 03:25:28 310
24 23 Brendan Naef CAN 09:38:11 09:52:20 00:57:39 05:17:59 03:27:43 332
25 16 Yeun Sik Ham KOR 09:39:02 09:53:12 01:04:00 05:09:43 02:53:26 (336)
26 22 Benjamin Munizaga CHI 09:47:47 10:02:10 00:51:16 05:05:25 03:49:16 (363)
27 19 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:51:28 10:05:56 00:59:47 05:21:26 03:34:57 369
28 11 Kurt Debouck BEL 10:20:06 10:35:16 00:55:57 05:13:48 04:03:19 (422)
29 34 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:41:28 11:58:38 01:11:53 05:58:21 04:37:41 445
4 Jan Frodeno GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
12 Alessandro Degasperi ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
13 Martijn Dekker NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
21 Michael Louys BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Mark Oude Bennink NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
28 Lukas Polan CZE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
30 Evert Scheltinga NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
31 Marcel Tuvmelme SVN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Hendrik-Jan Verhaegen BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Damien With FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
35 Vincent Depuiset FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 127 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:04:21 09:17:40 00:51:00 05:07:44 03:13:23 5
2 102 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:07:05 09:20:28 00:47:53 05:02:05 03:23:18 7
3 124 Eva Wutti AUT 09:10:04 09:23:32 00:56:06 05:00:26 03:10:55 (9)
4 105 Gina Crawford NZL 09:12:26 09:25:57 00:51:55 05:14:02 03:13:16 11
5 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:13:38 09:27:11 00:50:23 05:06:08 03:19:42 (17)
6 103 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:15:12 09:28:47 01:02:13 05:14:52 03:07:33 17
7 128 Caitlin Snow USA 09:16:19 09:29:56 00:54:45 05:26:30 03:02:15 19
8 119 Amy Marsh USA 09:19:50 09:33:32 00:51:41 05:05:37 03:31:23 21
9 118 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:19:51 09:33:33 00:58:11 05:20:49 03:08:31 22
10 104 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:20:08 09:33:50 01:01:34 05:06:46 03:17:12 24
11 107 Corinne Abraham GBR 09:20:44 09:34:27 01:00:24 05:19:19 03:09:30 27
12 108 Simone Braendli SUI 09:23:50 09:37:38 00:51:29 05:16:05 03:23:49 32
13 126 Kristin Moeller GER 09:24:06 09:37:54 01:03:38 05:21:06 03:06:54 33
14 114 Mareen Hufe GER 09:27:30 09:41:23 01:00:30 05:08:19 03:26:40 43
15 125 Lucie Reed CZE 09:28:05 09:41:59 00:50:38 05:17:42 03:27:15 45
16 116 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:41:45 09:55:59 01:08:26 05:21:17 03:16:18 79
17 110 Astrid Ganzow GER 09:46:44 10:01:05 00:59:22 05:10:29 03:28:50 (91)
18 115 Katja Konschak GER 09:47:53 10:02:16 00:52:28 05:29:09 03:30:10 92
19 111 Beate Goertz GER 09:51:29 10:05:57 01:05:44 05:08:29 03:27:09 (96)
20 129 Stefanie Adam BEL 09:54:27 10:09:00 00:55:50 05:07:52 03:44:26 (100)
21 112 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:59:41 10:14:21 01:14:52 05:28:17 03:18:58 114
22 113 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 10:06:16 10:21:06 01:01:42 05:38:45 03:15:21 (127)
23 123 Nicole Woysch GER 10:07:43 10:22:35 00:58:47 05:32:02 03:43:14 128
24 120 Yasuko Miyazaki JPN 10:25:41 10:40:59 01:01:05 05:57:37 03:41:06 (145)
25 106 Natascha Schmitt GER 10:29:09 10:44:33 00:53:41 05:38:48 03:51:46 (147)
26 109 Line Margareta Foss NOR 11:13:41 11:30:10 01:29:25 05:46:35 03:45:46 (156)
121 Jenny Schulz GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
117 Annabel Luxford AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
122 Verena Walter GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

As usual, IM Germany has a stellar field. Based on previous results, Freddie Van Lierde is my favorite. However, the race will be very interesting with the mix of experienced athletes probably focused more on Kona (Freddie, Sebastian Kienle), athletes moving up to the full distance (Jan Frodeno), athletes coming back from not so good results (Andreas Raelert, Ronnie Schildknecht, Jens Petersen-Bach) and those probably fully focused on Frankfurt (Jan Raphael and most of the other Germans). Almost impossible to predict what is going to happen!

  • Frederik Van Lierde: 45% (1-1)
  • Andreas Raelert: 27% (3-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 12% (8-1)
  • Sebastian Kienle: 8% (11-1)
  • Clemente Alonso-McKernan: 5% (19-1)
  • Jan Raphael: 3% (29-1)

Female Race Participants

The female race also has an amazing depth of talent, but is probably a bit easier to foresee than the men’s. Mary Beth Ellis and Jodie Swallow are always solid and at the front of the race. Last year’s winner Camilla Pedersen is back to defend her title – she’s had a tumultuous year with a bike crash, induced coma, an amazing recovery and successful 70.3 races in the spring. It’s hard to say what she’ll be able to do over the full distance. Then there are Eva Wutti (who needs a good result after a DNF in Texas), and a lot of German (Sonja Tajsich, Kristin Möller) and international athletes (Elizabeth Lyles, Gina Crawford). There are a few athletes on the list that are probably DNS – Annabel Luxford is injured, and Simone Braendli and Cait Snow have entered Frankfurt only as a back-up option if their primary IMs in Austria and France don’t go so well.

  • Eva Wutti: 29% (2-1)
  • Mary Beth Ellis: 24% (3-1)
  • Camilla Pedersen: 15% (6-1)
  • Jodie Swallow: 8% (11-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 7% (13-1)
  • Caitlin Snow: 6% (15-1)
  • Elizabeth Lyles: 3% (34-1)
  • Gina Crawford: 3% (39-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 2% (57-1)
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