Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Time Predictions

As before every race, I’m posting my predictions for Ironman Hawaii. I’ll be posting a lot more content over the next days before the race. If you can’t get enough pre-Kona info, please check out my “2013 Kona Rating Report“.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Pete Jacobs AUS 00:51:28 04:35:15 02:48:05 08:18:37
2 Andreas Raelert GER 00:55:17 04:36:34 02:47:23 08:23:40
3 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:51:36 04:35:25 02:52:49 08:24:09

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Leanda Cave GBR 00:56:03 05:12:06 03:03:13 09:15:54
2 Caroline Steffen SUI 00:57:37 05:06:49 03:08:08 09:16:58
3 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 01:00:06 05:12:18 03:05:04 09:21:41

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:03:56 Craig Alexander 2011-10-15
Swim overall 00:46:41 Lars Jorgensen 1998-10-01
Bike overall 04:18:23 Normann Stadler 2006-10-21
Run overall 02:40:04 Mark Allen 1999-10-01
Total female 08:54:02 Chrissie Wellington 2009-10-10
Swim female 00:48:43 Jodi Jackson 1999-10-01
Bike female 04:44:19 Karin Thuerig 2011-10-15
Run female 02:52:09 Mirinda Carfrae 2011-10-15

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Hawaii is – 04:48.

Race Adjustments for IM Hawaii

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
1993 n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
1996 n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
1998 n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
1999 n/a n/a n/a n/a 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2005 -02:56 -05:19 03:05 -02:38 104 -02:56 -05:19 03:05 -02:38
2006 -04:10 -06:12 02:58 -04:09 114 -03:33 -05:45 03:01 -03:24
2007 -01:56 -04:26 -00:56 01:42 106 -03:01 -05:19 01:42 -01:42
2008 -06:55 -04:16 -02:52 -00:38 104 -03:59 -05:03 00:34 -01:26
2009 -12:00 -04:17 -02:32 -05:48 107 -05:36 -04:54 -00:04 -02:18
2010 -00:08 -04:32 00:57 -00:47 93 -04:41 -04:50 00:06 -02:03
2011 -00:15 -05:12 04:43 00:27 61 -04:03 -04:53 00:46 -01:42
2012 -10:04 -05:26 -02:49 01:09 65 -04:48 -04:57 00:19 -01:20

KPR points and Price Money

IM Hawaii has 8000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 650k$.

Male Race Participants

For an up-to-date version of the start list (including all previous results), please have a look at my post “Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Startlists“.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 5 Craig Alexander AUS 08:20:39 08:16:14 00:47:54 04:37:21 02:48:16 1
1 4 Andreas Raelert GER 08:20:39 08:16:14 00:48:22 04:39:11 02:47:57 1
3 14 Bevan Docherty NZL 08:22:46 08:18:20 00:46:24 04:38:46 02:50:35 3
4 3 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:23:22 08:18:56 00:47:41 04:36:58 02:50:46 3
5 25 Timo Bracht GER 08:26:09 08:21:41 00:49:42 04:36:36 02:52:00 4
6 9 Bart Aernouts BEL 08:26:49 08:22:21 00:53:20 04:40:59 02:46:59 5
7 2 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:27:31 08:23:03 00:51:43 04:32:17 02:57:02 6
8 15 Faris Al-Sultan GER 08:28:33 08:24:04 00:47:34 04:33:49 02:57:50 8
9 52 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:29:06 08:24:37 00:47:06 04:27:20 03:10:54 9
10 6 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:29:41 08:25:12 00:47:49 04:37:10 02:57:10 9
11 32 David Dellow AUS 08:30:46 08:26:16 00:47:05 04:40:28 02:57:54 10
12 19 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:31:43 08:27:13 00:51:19 04:36:23 02:57:17 11
13 29 Jordan Rapp USA 08:32:30 08:27:59 00:52:22 04:35:45 02:57:42 12
14 10 Bas Diederen NED 08:33:41 08:29:09 00:47:28 04:45:20 02:54:11 13
15 8 Andy Potts USA 08:34:26 08:29:54 00:45:39 04:41:50 02:58:47 14
16 44 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:35:24 08:30:52 00:50:19 04:47:04 02:55:54 15
17 16 Chris McCormack AUS 08:36:07 08:31:34 00:48:33 04:44:32 02:54:45 16
18 7 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:38:13 08:33:39 00:47:06 04:42:00 03:03:29 20
19 33 Ivan Rana ESP 08:38:39 08:34:05 00:47:33 04:48:43 02:56:20 21
20 40 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:38:46 08:34:12 00:50:42 04:45:24 02:56:13 22
21 47 Dirk Bockel LUX 08:38:47 08:34:13 00:47:02 04:34:10 02:56:14 23
22 22 Jan Raphael GER 08:39:04 08:34:30 00:48:12 04:44:27 03:00:00 25
23 55 James Cunnama ZAF 08:39:45 08:35:10 00:50:27 04:42:58 03:00:10 28
24 42 Ben Hoffman USA 08:40:20 08:35:45 00:50:23 04:35:39 03:04:30 30
25 53 Clayton Fettell AUS 08:40:31 08:35:56 00:45:23 04:39:39 03:09:04 31
26 41 Cyril Viennot FRA 08:41:32 08:36:56 00:50:54 04:46:28 02:57:18 34
27 31 David Plese SVN 08:43:01 08:38:25 00:54:16 04:43:09 02:59:12 36
28 43 TJ Tollakson USA 08:43:44 08:39:07 00:48:44 04:39:03 03:07:22 37
29 36 Andi Boecherer GER 08:43:56 08:39:19 00:47:41 04:37:33 03:11:38 38
30 46 Marko Albert EST 08:44:06 08:39:29 00:46:41 04:50:03 03:01:50 40
31 26 Per Bittner GER 08:44:29 08:39:52 00:49:14 04:49:11 02:59:51 41
32 37 Igor Amorelli BRA 08:45:58 08:41:20 00:48:05 04:48:09 03:03:48 45
33 49 Luke McKenzie AUS 08:46:18 08:41:40 00:47:19 04:39:11 03:11:10 48
34 12 Jimmy Johnsen DEN 08:46:35 08:41:57 00:50:30 04:49:45 02:57:35 50
35 1 Pete Jacobs AUS 08:47:40 08:43:01 00:47:21 04:43:00 02:58:13 54
36 39 Christian Ritter GER 08:48:24 08:43:45 00:47:46 04:44:47 03:05:09 55
37 30 Paul Amey GBR 08:48:54 08:44:14 00:50:25 04:49:41 03:03:10 58
38 11 Luke Bell AUS 08:50:12 08:45:32 00:47:52 04:41:09 03:14:27 65
39 38 Pedro Gomes POR 08:50:16 08:45:36 00:52:11 04:51:40 03:08:21 66
40 28 Stefan Schmid GER 08:50:40 08:45:59 00:53:52 04:47:33 03:01:36 68
41 23 Axel Zeebroek BEL 08:51:32 08:46:51 00:47:27 04:44:06 03:12:42 69
42 21 Bert Jammaer BEL 08:51:42 08:47:01 00:49:21 04:46:32 03:06:03 70
43 35 Daniel Halksworth GBR 08:51:48 08:47:07 00:47:34 04:47:42 03:08:21 71
44 18 Brandon Marsh USA 08:56:42 08:51:58 00:47:28 04:48:47 03:10:30 84
45 34 Horst Reichel GER 08:57:48 08:53:04 00:48:06 04:47:50 03:04:07 86
46 20 Matthew Russell USA 08:59:27 08:54:42 01:01:58 04:48:40 02:59:49 94
47 45 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:59:41 08:54:56 00:55:00 04:45:00 03:12:24 95
48 50 Ian Mikelson USA 08:59:55 08:55:10 00:50:32 04:53:44 03:07:25 98
49 17 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:01:44 08:56:58 00:54:41 04:52:33 03:04:36 110
50 48 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:04:27 08:59:39 00:48:14 04:51:00 03:18:09 119
51 27 Dominik Berger AUT 09:05:13 09:00:25 00:48:27 04:51:17 03:19:43 123
52 24 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:07:21 09:02:32 01:00:25 04:51:42 03:06:25 130
53 54 Ben Cotter CAN 09:16:10 09:11:16 00:56:34 04:53:56 03:15:44 157
54 51 Chris Legh AUS 09:24:05 09:19:07 00:53:09 04:52:16 03:27:36 179

Female Race Participants

For an up-to-date version of the start list (including all previous results), please have a look at my post “Ironman Hawaii 2013 – Startlists“.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 111 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:16:11 09:11:17 00:53:37 05:15:37 03:00:15 1
2 103 Caroline Steffen SUI 09:17:30 09:12:35 00:51:51 04:58:55 03:15:42 2
3 118 Yvonne Van Vlerken AUT 09:18:39 09:13:44 00:57:19 05:01:26 03:09:50 3
4 105 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:19:05 09:14:09 00:48:11 04:59:53 03:25:34 4
5 102 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:20:17 09:15:21 00:51:15 05:08:02 03:13:54 5
6 131 Rachel Joyce GBR 09:20:54 09:15:58 00:51:09 05:07:42 03:14:38 6
7 117 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:22:33 09:17:36 00:50:24 05:05:24 03:20:27 7
8 123 Anja Beranek GER 09:25:51 09:20:52 00:52:23 05:05:05 03:22:07 7
9 112 Liz Blatchford GBR 09:26:26 09:21:27 00:50:39 05:16:48 03:11:01 8
10 110 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:28:00 09:23:00 01:02:34 05:09:59 03:06:23 9
11 114 Linsey Corbin USA 09:28:40 09:23:39 00:57:52 05:12:25 03:10:09 10
12 107 Rebekah Keat AUS 09:29:34 09:24:33 00:52:57 05:12:33 03:16:05 11
13 104 Gina Crawford NZL 09:31:03 09:26:01 00:52:00 05:14:56 03:13:22 12
14 101 Leanda Cave GBR 09:31:05 09:26:03 00:50:57 05:12:58 03:19:26 13
15 113 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:31:49 09:26:47 01:00:36 05:04:26 03:14:46 14
16 108 Meredith Kessler USA 09:33:48 09:28:45 00:50:36 05:12:53 03:21:47 16
17 106 Erika Csomor HUN 09:34:57 09:29:53 00:57:35 05:16:05 03:12:40 17
18 109 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:35:14 09:30:10 00:54:13 05:10:58 03:19:05 20
19 119 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:35:52 09:30:48 00:52:15 05:14:00 03:22:51 21
20 132 Amy Marsh USA 09:38:09 09:33:03 00:52:05 05:06:14 03:31:34 24
21 124 Caitlin Snow USA 09:39:06 09:34:00 00:54:52 05:29:16 03:03:38 27
22 125 Jessie Donavan USA 09:39:21 09:34:15 01:07:13 05:08:29 03:16:49 28
23 127 Eva Nystroem SWE 09:40:06 09:34:59 01:01:55 05:10:05 03:21:59 29
24 136 Kim Schwabenbauer USA 09:40:26 09:35:19 01:02:46 05:17:07 03:16:54 30
25 121 Jennie Hansen USA 09:40:29 09:35:22 01:04:58 05:16:43 03:11:08 31
26 126 Kristin Moeller GER 09:40:41 09:35:34 01:03:05 05:21:58 03:07:15 32
27 128 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:41:26 09:36:19 00:58:39 05:24:14 03:08:40 34
28 122 Mirjam Weerd NED 09:42:29 09:37:21 00:53:45 05:09:46 03:29:47 36
29 116 Britta Martin NZL 09:42:32 09:37:24 01:00:14 05:11:55 03:19:30 37
30 137 Haley Chura USA 09:43:29 09:38:21 00:48:42 05:20:07 03:30:18 38
31 129 Mareen Hufe GER 09:43:35 09:38:27 01:01:09 05:08:38 03:25:56 39
32 120 Sofie Goos BEL 09:44:18 09:39:09 00:55:26 05:20:52 03:20:13 41
33 133 Ashley Clifford USA 09:44:57 09:39:48 00:53:35 05:35:40 03:09:56 44
34 115 Amanda Stevens USA 09:46:09 09:40:59 00:48:58 05:19:59 03:29:20 46
35 135 Rebecca Hoschke AUS 09:49:36 09:44:24 01:00:20 05:17:14 03:22:28 52
36 130 Anna Ross NZL 09:50:18 09:45:06 00:59:37 05:20:01 03:21:07 53
37 134 Sara Gross CAN 09:53:39 09:48:25 00:55:41 05:33:24 03:18:23 57
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