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Ironman Lake Tahoe 2014 (Sep 21st) – Predictions

Update Sept 11: Daniel Bretscher posted on Twitter that he won’t be racing in Tahoe after his win in Wisconsin.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2013 Chris McDonald (AUS) 08:55:14 Asa Lundstroem (SWE) 09:58:53

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Chris McDonald AUS 00:54:54 04:55:42 02:59:40 08:55:14
2 Maik Twelsiek GER 00:51:47 04:55:55 03:03:33 08:57:53
3 Joe Gambles AUS 00:51:39 05:02:43 03:02:24 09:02:55

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Asa Lundstroem SWE 01:01:27 05:34:39 03:16:54 09:58:53
2 Jeanne Collonge FRA 01:01:18 05:33:21 03:16:01 09:59:43
3 Catriona Morrison GBR 01:00:02 05:44:27 03:10:57 10:03:38

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:55:14 Chris McDonald 2013-09-22
Swim overall 00:51:36 Romain Guillaume 2013-09-22
Bike overall 04:55:42 Chris McDonald 2013-09-22
Run overall 02:52:59 Kevin Taddonio 2013-09-22
Total female 09:58:53 Asa Lundstroem 2013-09-22
Swim female 00:55:12 Dede Griesbauer 2013-09-22
Bike female 05:33:21 Jeanne Collonge 2013-09-22
Run female 03:09:05 Elizabeth Lyles 2013-09-22

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Lake Tahoe is – 13:47.

Race Adjustments for IM Lake Tahoe

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 -13:47 -02:31 -22:01 01:50 32 -13:47 -02:31 -22:01 01:50

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Lake Tahoe has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 1 Justin Daerr USA 08:59:25 08:46:00 00:53:32 04:45:32 03:00:22 49
2 5 Daniel Bretscher USA 09:08:06 08:54:28 00:51:02 04:46:26 03:01:00 75
3 12 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:10:20 08:56:38 00:53:58 04:53:18 02:59:24 84
4 3 Matthew Russell USA 09:10:34 08:56:52 00:59:59 04:46:27 02:59:34 85
5 16 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 09:10:55 08:57:12 00:52:22 04:41:32 03:03:57 87
6 4 Jason Shortis AUS 09:10:57 08:57:14 00:54:33 04:51:40 03:02:06 88
7 2 Trevor Wurtele CAN 09:11:12 08:57:29 00:53:31 04:46:15 03:09:07 90
8 19 Dylan McNeice NZL 09:12:36 08:58:51 00:44:58 04:50:14 03:06:30 95
9 9 Thomas Gerlach USA 09:18:48 09:04:54 00:54:20 04:45:36 03:14:21 123
10 17 Matt Lieto USA 09:22:23 09:08:23 00:51:35 04:48:06 03:17:18 139
11 13 Derek Garcia USA 09:29:56 09:15:45 00:53:21 04:47:21 03:16:32 163
12 11 Guy Crawford NZL 09:32:57 09:18:42 00:49:45 04:50:58 03:28:47 181
13 6 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:43:36 09:29:05 00:49:19 05:05:26 03:28:24 (214)
14 18 Douglas MacLean USA 09:47:01 09:32:25 00:58:18 05:04:04 03:09:43 223
15 15 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 09:48:52 09:34:13 00:55:41 05:02:09 03:19:55 232
16 20 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:31:50 10:16:07 00:51:44 05:16:35 03:49:50 378
17 14 Jeremy Howard USA 10:41:22 10:25:24 00:51:50 05:26:42 03:38:04 (402)
8 Brent McMahon CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
10 Barrett Brandon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 29 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:48:56 09:34:17 00:57:42 05:18:53 03:07:23 20
2 26 Jessie Donavan USA 09:56:12 09:41:22 01:06:48 05:06:47 03:16:35 32
3 30 Kathleen Calkins USA 10:09:02 09:53:53 00:56:47 05:19:59 03:20:02 61
4 31 Katy Blakemore USA 10:12:43 09:57:28 00:52:22 05:28:32 03:17:49 66
5 28 Uli Bromme USA 10:14:55 09:59:37 01:02:44 05:19:31 03:27:41 71
6 35 Mackenzie Madison USA 10:18:57 10:03:33 00:59:47 05:20:22 03:22:04 80
7 32 Malaika Homo USA 10:20:00 10:04:34 00:53:04 05:22:42 03:34:52 (83)
8 27 Kate Bevilaqua AUS 10:32:50 10:17:05 00:57:49 05:31:19 03:40:20 101
9 30 Anne Basso FRA 10:37:39 10:21:47 00:57:28 05:31:08 03:38:08 107
10 36 Jessica Smith USA 10:41:32 10:25:34 00:54:50 05:26:50 03:45:22 121
11 37 Francesca Tibaldi ITA 10:50:23 10:34:12 unrated unrated unrated (132)
33 Sarah Jarvis USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
34 Kara Lapoint USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The men’s list is topped by Justin Daerr, recent winner at IM Boulder and Kona qualifier:

  • Justin Daerr: 39% (2-1)
  • Daniel Bretscher: 22% (4-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 10% (9-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 9% (11-1)
  • Trevor Wurtele: 7% (13-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 6% (17-1)
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 5% (18-1)
  • Jason Shortis: 2% (61-1)
An interesting participant will be Brent McMahon in his first Ironman – he has had great results at the 70.3 distance.

Female Race Participants

Similarly, we have two Kona athletes (Liz Lyles and Jessie Donavan) with the best winning chances – they confirmed that they will actually start in Tahoe:

  • Elizabeth Lyles: 50% (1-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 22% (3-1)
  • Uli Bromme: 9% (10-1)
  • Kathleen Calkins: 7% (14-1)
  • Kate Bevilaqua: 6% (15-1)
  • Katy Blakemore: 3% (36-1)
  • Mackenzie Madison: 2% (62-1)

Related posts:

  1. Ironman Wisconsin 2016 (WPRO-only, Sep 11th) – Predictions
  2. Challenge Almere 2016 (Sep 10th) – Predictions
  3. Ironman Malaysia (Sep 27th) – Predictions
  4. Challenge Almere 2014 (Sep 13th) – Predictions
  5. Ironman Lake Tahoe 2013 – Analyzing Results
  6. IM Lake Tahoe 2013 – Predictions
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