Ironman Malaysia 2016 (Nov 12th) – Predictions

Update Nov 6th: Based on the latest startlist there are a few withdrawals (most notably Tine Deckers).

Update Nov 9th: Ty Butterfield has stated on Twitter that he has ended his season and won’t be racing Malaysia.

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2006	Jason Shortis (AUS)	08:36:33	Sonja Tajsich (GER)	10:08:13
2007	Xavier Le Floch (FRA)	08:43:52	Nicole Leder (GER)	09:42:33
2008	Faris Al-Sultan (GER)	08:34:42	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:29:21
2009	Luke McKenzie (AUS)	08:26:48	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:21:10
2010	Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL)	08:22:31	Belinda Granger (AUS)	09:23:33
2014	Patrik Nilsson (SWE)	08:41:53	Diana Riesler (GER)	09:26:38
2015	Mike Aigroz (SUI)	08:52:02	Diana Riesler (GER)	09:37:06

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Mike Aigroz	SUI	00:49:17	04:49:25	03:08:46	08:52:02
2	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	00:50:24	04:48:18	03:09:02	08:52:12
3	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	00:49:13	04:49:31	03:11:55	08:55:01

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Diana Riesler	GER	00:59:34	05:02:38	03:29:37	09:37:06
2	Gurutze Frades Larralde	ESP	01:03:55	05:25:04	03:15:02	09:49:09
3	Natascha Badmann	SUI	01:03:56	05:14:13	03:30:21	09:54:07

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:10:35	Bryan Rhodes	2002-01-27
Swim	overall	00:46:19	Dylan McNeice	2014-09-27
Bike	overall	04:21:01	Marino Vanhoenacker	2010-02-27
Run	overall	02:56:27	Jason Shortis	2006-02-26
Total	female	09:21:10	Belinda Granger	2009-02-28
Swim	female	00:53:12	Maki Nishiuchi	2009-02-28
Bike	female	04:48:08	Belinda Granger	2009-02-28
Run	female	03:15:02	Gurutze Frades Larralde	2015-11-14

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Malaysia is – 07:47.

Race Adjustments for IM Malaysia

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2006	-15:42	-01:19	01:52	-19:12	17 of 22	-15:42	-01:19	01:52	-19:12
2007	-07:36	-01:34	02:49	-08:12	30 of 37	-11:39	-01:26	02:20	-13:42
2008	-11:09	-03:26	00:54	-13:21	21 of 22	-11:29	-02:06	01:52	-13:35
2009	12:41	-01:43	15:34	-00:25	6	-05:27	-02:00	05:17	-10:18
2010	03:53	-02:32	12:40	-07:21	6	-03:35	-02:07	06:46	-09:42
2014	-17:22	-02:03	-01:03	-10:27	21 of 27	-05:53	-02:06	05:28	-09:50
2015	-19:13	-01:38	-00:11	-10:39	42 of 55	-07:47	-02:02	04:39	-09:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Malaysia is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 40.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	3	Tyler Butterfield	BMU	08:41:03	08:40:45	00:50:52	04:32:37	03:12:34	47% +15% -38% (13)	61
2	1	Fredrik Croneborg	SWE	08:43:15	08:40:14	00:51:58	04:41:00	03:05:17	81% +4% -15% (10)	58
3	4	Alberto Casadei	ITA	08:45:15	08:43:16	00:49:26	04:44:36	03:06:13	30% +34% -36% (8)	69
4	8	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:47:05	08:42:23	00:53:01	04:51:05	02:58:00	67% +0% -33% (5)	67
5	2	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:52:33	08:53:02	00:49:02	04:44:57	03:13:35	28% +32% -40% (17)	103
6	15	Mitch Dean	AUS	08:54:27	09:00:07	00:50:19	04:43:35	03:15:33	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(130)
7	9	Jeremy Jurkiewicz	FRA	08:55:05	08:42:12	00:50:23	04:49:49	03:09:52	71% +0% -29% (12)	66
8	26	Daniil Sapunov	UKR	08:55:29	08:55:20	00:50:08	04:51:18	03:09:02	60% +40% -0% (3)	110
9	6	Kaito Tohara	JPN	08:56:16	09:02:35	00:54:48	04:50:40	03:05:48	48% +40% -12% (8)	139
10	32	Marcel Zamora	ESP	08:56:38	08:42:55	00:54:06	04:46:07	03:11:25	99% +0% -1% (14)	68
11	27	Jonathan Shearon	USA	08:58:55	08:54:44	00:55:33	04:39:36	03:18:46	63% +10% -26% (14)	107
12	28	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	08:59:08	08:53:04	00:55:22	04:45:07	03:13:39	97% +3% -0% (8)	104
13	30	Darby Thomas	FIN	09:03:04	08:57:51	01:01:10	04:44:21	03:12:33	59% +6% -35% (9)	122
14	10	Balazs Csoke	HUN	09:07:46	09:12:06	00:49:32	04:47:38	03:25:36	47% +6% -48% (25)	169
15	11	Nick Baldwin	SEY	09:07:52	09:01:44	00:55:04	04:45:19	03:22:30	65% +0% -35% (17)	136
16	31	Thiago Vinhal	BRA	09:08:00	09:04:21	00:50:53	05:01:33	03:10:34	88% +0% -12% (11)	150
17	5	Karol Dzalaj	SVK	09:08:38	09:13:24	00:55:53	04:43:38	03:24:07	70% +11% -18% (13)	(175)
18	7	Antony Costes	FRA	09:17:05	09:36:31	00:50:47	04:39:35	03:41:43	21% +0% -79% (4)	(231)
19	17	Nicolas Hemet	FRA	09:20:14	09:13:54	00:56:54	04:49:47	03:28:33	46% +0% -54% (8)	177
20	18	Guillaume Jeannin	FRA	09:21:02	09:24:23	00:54:53	04:51:47	03:29:22	17% +29% -54% (5)	(205)
21	12	Henry Beck	GER	09:25:25	09:45:10	00:51:46	04:44:36	03:44:04	37% +63% -0% (2)	(253)
22	14	Andreas Borch	DEN	09:25:50	09:19:10	00:50:59	04:52:17	03:37:34	81% +5% -15% (7)	192
23	24	Young Hwan Oh	KOR	09:33:47	09:35:29	01:05:53	05:03:16	03:19:38	16% +50% -33% (5)	230
24	19	Darren Jenkins	AUS	09:34:54	09:29:17	01:08:36	05:02:39	03:18:39	42% +0% -58% (10)	218
25	22	Urs Mueller	SUI	09:37:10	09:34:41	00:58:44	04:57:42	03:35:44	65% +0% -35% (3)	(227)
26	20	David Jilek	CZE	09:41:40	09:39:13	01:00:21	04:58:57	03:37:22	64% +21% -15% (7)	238
27	16	Eneko Elosegui	ESP	09:43:03	09:39:34	01:01:29	04:54:56	03:41:38	70% +10% -20% (17)	239
28	25	Ryan Palazzi	AUS	09:47:09	09:50:27	00:52:50	04:55:02	03:54:18	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(259)
29	13	Petr Bednar	CZE	10:56:21	11:00:02	01:09:15	05:19:41	04:22:25	53% +0% -47% (2)	(296)
30	29	Josef Svoboda	CZE	11:27:46	11:52:34	01:17:53	05:43:30	04:21:23	33% +26% -41% (14)	298
31	23	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:52:06	11:59:22	01:14:16	05:48:19	04:44:30	33% +27% -40% (38)	299
	21	Philipp Koutny	SUI	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (2)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	41	Diana Riesler	GER	09:26:06	09:37:28	00:59:14	04:54:59	03:26:53	39% +12% -49% (19)	37
2	54	Laura Siddall	GBR	09:34:57	09:37:30	00:59:28	05:01:16	03:29:14	32% +55% -12% (7)	39
3	43	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:40:33	09:34:34	01:00:30	05:00:56	03:34:07	55% +6% -39% (20)	32
4	45	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:44:59	09:35:18	01:03:20	05:02:57	03:33:42	84% +5% -11% (21)	34
5	50	Leslie DiMichele Miller	USA	10:00:43	09:55:47	01:00:14	05:26:42	03:28:47	100% +0% -0% (4)	70
6	46	Tine Holst	DEN	10:01:35	09:54:28	01:06:20	05:15:10	03:35:05	77% +23% -0% (12)	68
7	44	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	10:02:39	09:57:44	01:08:06	05:18:58	03:30:36	56% +30% -14% (12)	74
8	42	Keiko Tanaka	JPN	10:03:21	10:10:13	00:56:09	05:24:14	03:37:58	42% +0% -58% (16)	96
9	47	Brooke Brown	CAN	10:06:45	10:04:41	01:04:41	05:20:27	03:36:36	42% +0% -58% (9)	87
10	53	Lina-Kristin Schink	GER	10:21:11	10:14:09	01:15:14	05:18:41	03:42:16	78% +0% -22% (6)	101
11	51	Maki Nishiuchi	JPN	10:23:57	10:30:12	00:56:17	05:24:24	03:58:15	61% +0% -39% (13)	(129)
12	48	Kate Bruck	USA	10:36:48	10:34:27	01:06:11	05:40:46	03:44:51	60% +0% -40% (4)	136
13	49	Erin Green	USA	10:47:41	10:51:19	01:06:06	05:44:50	03:51:46	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(144)
	52	Lauren Parker	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	0% +0% -100% (2)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Both the male and female fields have an interesting mix of athletes that want to use their Kona fitness after have not being able to score too many points there (Butterfield, Wiltshire, Deckers, Holst) and athletes that haven’t qualified for Kona this season and want to start the 2017 qualifying cycle with a strong result (Croneborg, Nicholls, Riesler, Siddall). It’ll be two very interesting races in a demanding climate.

Male Race Participants

• Fredrik Croneborg: 33% (2-1)
• Alberto Casadei: 20% (4-1)
• Tyler Butterfield: 14% (6-1)
• Daniil Sapunov: 12% (8-1)
• Harry Wiltshire: 9% (10-1)
• Ritchie Nicholls: 7% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

• Diana Riesler: 45% (1-1)
• Laura Siddall: 25% (3-1)
• Tine Deckers: 13% (7-1)
• Mareen Hufe: 12% (7-1)