Ironman Mallorca 2015 (September 26th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2014	Tim Don (GBR)	08:34:02	Eimear Mullan (IRL)	09:24:17

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Tim Don	GBR	00:45:25	04:51:21	02:52:07	08:34:02
2	Miguel Fidalgo	ESP	00:45:36	04:58:45	02:49:01	08:38:08
3	Mike Aigroz	SUI	00:45:31	04:51:06	02:59:26	08:40:29

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Eimear Mullan	IRL	00:55:13	05:13:01	03:10:26	09:24:17
2	Dede Griesbauer	USA	00:50:10	05:11:15	03:19:40	09:27:09
3	Astrid Stienen	GER	00:55:14	05:12:17	03:17:18	09:31:10

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:34:02	Tim Don	2014-09-27
Swim	overall	00:44:46	Manuel Kueng	2014-09-27
Bike	overall	04:48:20	Manuel Kueng	2014-09-27
Run	overall	02:47:30	Miquel Blanchart Tinto	2014-09-27
Total	female	09:24:17	Eimear Mullan	2014-09-27
Swim	female	00:49:52	Mette Pettersen Moe	2014-09-27
Bike	female	05:04:52	Nina Kuhn	2014-09-27
Run	female	03:10:26	Eimear Mullan	2014-09-27

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Mallorca is 02:48.

Race Adjustments for IM Mallorca

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2014	02:48	02:31	00:41	03:09	32	02:48	02:31	00:41	03:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Mallorca is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 50.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	2	Timo Bracht	GER	08:21:12	08:22:35	00:47:11	04:37:39	02:51:21	7
2	1	Alessandro Degasperi	ITA	08:28:22	08:31:46	00:50:23	04:45:20	02:47:39	25
3	38	James Cunnama	ZAF	08:30:30	08:40:40	00:47:38	04:41:01	02:56:51	52
4	7	Jan Van Berkel	SUI	08:36:52	08:48:03	00:46:17	04:40:37	03:04:58	82
5	8	Johann Ackermann	GER	08:38:22	08:47:51	00:47:04	04:41:22	03:04:56	(80)
6	36	David Plese	SLO	08:39:40	08:39:59	00:50:53	04:45:20	02:58:27	48
7	3	Horst Reichel	GER	08:39:51	08:59:48	00:47:00	04:46:18	03:01:34	125
8	31	Mathias Hecht	SUI	08:41:10	09:08:03	00:46:05	04:44:31	03:05:33	(157)
9	5	Miguel Fidalgo	ESP	08:41:14	08:52:11	00:46:05	04:58:25	02:51:44	(97)
10	41	Michael Ruenz	GER	08:44:00	09:03:04	00:51:02	04:51:30	02:56:29	139
11	6	Herve Faure	FRA	08:44:47	08:50:38	00:49:15	04:47:49	03:02:43	(90)
12	21	Chris McDonald	AUS	08:45:27	08:45:32	00:51:13	04:45:44	03:03:29	68
13	40	Mauro Baertsch	SUI	08:48:19	09:01:07	00:51:48	04:51:29	03:00:02	129
14	19	Andreas Linden	SWE	08:48:27	09:01:52	00:56:43	04:32:33	03:14:11	(133)
15	32	Carlos Lopez Diaz	ESP	08:48:51	09:12:39	00:45:35	04:57:20	03:00:55	(182)
16	4	Ritchie Nicholls	GBR	08:49:11	09:08:04	00:46:44	05:01:02	02:56:25	(157)
17	34	Christian Brader	GER	08:52:05	08:54:25	00:54:21	04:54:48	02:57:57	107
18	29	Harry Wiltshire	GBR	08:55:10	08:56:30	00:46:05	04:53:36	03:10:30	114
19	24	Ouilleres Gwenael	FRA	08:56:01	09:09:38	00:49:37	04:54:04	03:07:20	(167)
20	37	Flo Kriegl	AUT	09:03:11	09:06:47	00:53:11	04:57:06	03:07:54	(154)
21	10	Herve Banti	MCO	09:10:04	09:20:14	00:49:52	04:52:49	03:22:23	(214)
22	14	Martin Droell	GER	09:12:12	09:26:14	00:56:01	05:01:08	03:10:03	(237)
23	20	Felipe De Oliveira Manente	BRA	09:12:55	09:21:06	00:51:04	05:06:47	03:10:05	219
24	28	Rene Vallant	AUT	09:22:00	09:41:44	00:53:53	04:52:42	03:30:26	(300)
25	22	Urs Mueller	SWI	09:24:30	09:33:14	00:54:15	05:02:41	03:22:34	(267)
26	25	Alfred Rahm	GER	09:37:56	09:59:49	01:01:44	05:09:46	03:21:26	(361)
27	15	Rafael Espinar Puig	ESP	09:39:59	09:42:40	01:00:18	05:21:48	03:12:53	303
28	35	Lukas Polan	CZE	09:48:19	10:07:42	01:01:00	05:12:26	03:29:53	393
29	16	Ivan Kharin	RUS	09:51:23	10:14:07	01:05:06	05:13:29	03:27:48	411
30	13	Fabio Carvalho	BRA	09:55:17	10:10:41	00:45:17	05:23:00	03:42:00	398
31	23	Gilian Oriet	SUI	10:04:38	10:26:12	00:57:00	05:08:08	03:54:30	(449)
32	17	Teemu Kyllonen	FIN	10:12:15	10:27:09	00:59:51	05:18:40	03:48:43	453
33	30	Valentin Zasypkin	RUS	10:36:01	11:18:02	01:05:42	05:38:12	03:47:07	(479)
	9	Francisco Alvarez	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	11	Thomas Bosch	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	12	Antonio Cardona	ESP	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	18	Frederic Limousin	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	26	Kevin Rundstadler	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	27	Andreas Thissen	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	39	Michael Van Cleven	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	51	Anja Beranek	GER	09:19:32	09:19:01	00:49:23	05:03:31	03:21:39	12
2	69	Diana Riesler	GER	09:22:33	09:32:41	00:55:25	05:04:30	03:17:39	30
3	52	Eimear Mullan	IRL	09:31:09	09:58:47	00:56:10	05:18:15	03:11:44	86
4	63	Daniela Saemmler	GER	09:35:46	09:40:55	00:52:46	05:14:37	03:23:23	49
5	60	Camilla Lindholm	SWE	09:39:32	09:49:46	01:05:07	05:14:42	03:14:42	67
6	70	Regula Rohrbach	SUI	09:45:00	09:52:11	00:55:05	05:09:42	03:35:13	74
7	65	Tineke Van den Berg	NED	09:46:46	09:55:37	01:02:42	05:14:55	03:24:09	82
8	62	Kamila Polak	AUT	09:46:56	09:58:33	00:56:29	05:22:55	03:22:32	(85)
9	53	Natascha Schmitt	GER	09:48:33	10:05:29	00:51:52	05:32:29	03:19:12	105
10	61	Caroline Livesey	GBR	09:54:28	09:58:38	00:58:39	05:25:14	03:25:35	85
11	58	Shiao-yu Li	TWN	09:56:58	10:02:37	01:05:30	05:31:45	03:14:43	96
12	56	Eleanor Haresign	GBR	09:59:51	10:11:05	00:57:05	05:26:42	03:31:04	115
13	68	Verena Walter	GER	10:01:23	10:06:41	00:57:19	05:26:29	03:32:35	109
14	55	Katharina Grohmann	GER	10:04:01	10:09:35	01:10:03	05:27:55	03:21:03	113
15	66	Nicole Woysch	GER	10:20:52	10:47:51	00:56:30	05:32:28	03:46:54	(175)
16	54	Amy Forshaw	GBR	10:21:20	10:36:26	01:01:31	05:43:05	03:31:43	167
17	57	Corina Hengartner	SWI	10:31:36	10:47:39	01:00:45	05:31:14	03:54:37	(175)
	59	Emma Kate Lidbury	GBR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	64	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	67	Nina Kuhn	GER	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Timo Bracht is the clear favorite for the race. Last year he was the pre-race favorite as well, but he was tired after racing a lot in the summer. This year, he seems to be more focused on the race:

• Timo Bracht: 45% (1-1)
• Alessandro Degasperi: 15% (6-1)
• Jan Van Berkel: 14% (6-1)
• James Cunnama: 10% (9-1)
• Horst Reichel: 6% (15-1)
• David Plese: 3% (33-1)
• Mathias Hecht: 3% (36-1)

Female Race Participants

The female race is harder to predict – mainly because I believe that there will be a few changes to the start list. Anja Beranek has just won IM Wales and might not start, Diana Riesler is getting ready for Kona. If these two are not racing, the favorite would be defending champion Eimear Mullan, but she has struggled with injuries during the summer.

• Anja Beranek: 58% (1-1)
• Diana Riesler: 25% (3-1)
• Eimear Mullan: 10% (9-1)
• Camilla Lindholm: 3% (29-1)
• Daniela Saemmler: 2% (50-1)