Ironman Netherlands 2016 (July 31st) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2015	Bas Diederen (NED)	08:27:18	Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED)	09:39:24

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Bas Diederen	NED	00:46:22	04:43:33	02:51:59	08:27:18
2	Mark Oude Bennink	NED	00:46:19	04:48:30	02:54:58	08:35:15
3	Alberto Casadei	ITA	00:46:20	04:51:50	02:54:34	08:38:04

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Yvonne Van Vlerken	NED	00:56:26	05:16:10	03:21:17	09:39:24
2	Sarissa De Vries	NED	00:52:24	05:25:23	03:34:10	09:58:44
3	Carla Van Rooijen	NED	01:09:18	05:32:16	03:16:20	10:04:38

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:27:18	Bas Diederen	2015-08-02
Swim	overall	00:46:17	Martijn Dekker	2015-08-02
Bike	overall	04:43:33	Bas Diederen	2015-08-02
Run	overall	02:51:59	Bas Diederen	2015-08-02
Total	female	09:39:24	Yvonne Van Vlerken	2015-08-02
Swim	female	00:52:24	Sarissa De Vries	2015-08-02
Bike	female	05:16:10	Yvonne Van Vlerken	2015-08-02
Run	female	03:16:20	Carla Van Rooijen	2015-08-02

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Netherlands is – 05:33.

Race Adjustments for IM Netherlands

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Finishers	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2015	-05:33	00:41	-02:40	01:09	25 of 32	-05:33	00:41	-02:40	01:09

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Netherlands is a P-2000 race. It has a total prize purse of 25.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	1	Bas Diederen	NED	08:30:29	08:35:15	00:47:12	04:42:05	02:56:12	36% +8% -55% (16)	39
2	28	Markus Fachbach	GER	08:42:47	08:37:06	00:49:26	04:45:38	03:02:43	83% +0% -17% (17)	47
3	20	Mark Oude Bennink	NED	08:46:34	09:01:31	00:47:19	04:53:15	03:01:00	22% +37% -41% (6)	132
4	30	Igor Amorelli	BRA	08:49:01	08:47:41	00:47:26	04:47:01	03:09:35	32% +12% -55% (10)	78
5	11	Erik-Simon Strijk	NED	08:56:16	08:53:49	00:52:34	04:53:00	03:05:42	94% +6% -0% (6)	98
6	15	Diego Van Looy	BEL	08:58:23	09:03:36	01:04:36	04:52:41	02:56:05	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(144)
7	8	Mike Schifferle	SUI	09:06:02	09:02:37	01:00:03	04:55:27	03:05:32	85% +11% -4% (55)	137
8	13	Wouter Monchy	BEL	09:15:21	09:21:03	00:51:04	05:03:29	03:15:49	27% +73% -0% (3)	199
9	5	Lucky Berlage	BEL	09:15:31	09:10:36	00:56:10	05:02:19	03:12:03	100% +0% -0% (3)	(166)
10	10	Darren Jenkins	AUS	09:29:00	09:24:25	01:05:57	05:11:49	03:06:15	63% +0% -37% (8)	207
11	12	Michael Louys	BEL	09:29:47	09:29:08	01:02:59	05:03:06	03:18:42	69% +10% -21% (9)	221
12	23	Sam Clark	NZL	09:32:56	09:37:01	00:57:40	05:09:31	03:20:46	42% +0% -58% (2)	(242)
13	18	David Jilek	CZE	09:39:18	09:39:13	00:57:58	05:09:12	03:27:07	64% +21% -15% (7)	248
14	27	Lukas Polan	CZE	09:52:50	09:56:55	01:02:42	05:18:13	03:26:55	30% +15% -55% (9)	271
15	7	Ludovic Le Guellec	FRA	10:08:18	10:12:19	01:00:51	05:31:33	03:30:54	66% +4% -30% (20)	285
16	6	Rob Bobbaers	BEL	10:14:26	10:14:22	01:01:38	05:16:18	03:51:31	100% +0% -0% (2)	(286)
17	26	Remmert Wielinga	NED	10:19:52	10:52:28	01:12:24	05:12:23	03:50:05	7% +11% -82% (6)	(297)
18	16	David Krupicka	CZE	10:59:11	10:59:26	01:04:37	05:32:56	04:16:38	100% +0% -0% (2)	(298)
19	21	Marek Nemcik	SVK	11:52:46	12:09:19	01:12:14	06:01:57	04:33:35	32% +25% -43% (35)	303
	4	Milan Brons	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	9	Omar Brons	NED	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	14	Thomas Leboucher	FRA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	19	Michael Van Cleven	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(n/a)
	22	Olivier Esser	BEL	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Consistency	Overall
1	62	Daniela Ryf	SUI	08:59:50	08:55:12	00:51:04	04:58:08	03:05:38	55% +23% -22% (7)	1
2	57	Mary Beth Ellis	USA	09:28:54	09:17:57	00:51:04	05:11:20	03:21:31	93% +0% -7% (17)	13
3	56	Tine Deckers	BEL	09:38:11	09:28:53	00:58:06	05:11:08	03:23:57	66% +7% -27% (19)	26
4	60	Katja Konschak	GER	09:49:58	09:54:16	00:53:52	05:34:52	03:16:15	51% +35% -15% (17)	81
5	51	Alexandra Tondeur	BEL	09:52:19	09:52:32	01:01:11	05:29:44	03:16:24	100% +0% -0% (2)	(76)
6	58	Saleta Castro Nogueira	ESP	09:56:07	10:05:09	00:55:14	05:34:36	03:21:17	31% +49% -20% (10)	100
7	52	Sarissa De Vries	NED	10:01:39	10:10:31	00:52:48	05:27:59	03:35:53	n/a (1 IM Pro race)	(110)
8	61	Kate Comber	GBR	10:06:26	10:06:14	00:53:48	05:36:05	03:31:34	100% +0% -0% (2)	(102)
9	55	Tineke Van den Berg	NED	10:07:32	10:12:19	01:04:57	05:23:03	03:34:32	63% +13% -24% (5)	113
10	53	Alena Stevens	SVK	10:27:43	10:24:38	01:01:46	05:46:32	03:34:26	65% +23% -12% (5)	146
	54	Danne Boterenbrood		n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	n/a (no IM Pro race)	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

• Bas Diederen: 60% (1-1)
• Markus Fachbach: 17% (5-1)
• Mark Oude Bennink: 11% (9-1)
• Igor Amorelli: 7% (14-1)
• Erik-Simon Strijk: 3% (36-1)

Female Race Participants

There are a number of females on the start list that are unlikely to race if they already qualified for Kona in the July cutoff that happens before IM Netherlands. This includes Daniela Ryf, Tine Deckers, Katja Konschak and possibly Alexandra Tondeur. If all of these end up not racing, then Mary Beth Ellis is the race favorite, and a win should secure an August Kona slot for her.

• Daniela Ryf: 69% (1-1)
• Mary Beth Ellis: 18% (4-1)
• Tine Deckers: 8% (11-1)
• Katja Konschak: 3% (34-1)