Ironman New Zealand 2015 (March 7th) – Predictions

Previous Winners

Year	Male Winner	Time	Female Winner	Time
2005	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:20:15	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:30:14
2007	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:26:33	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:20:02
2008	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:24:49	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:16:00
2009	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:18:05	Gina Crawford (NZL)	09:18:26
2010	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:21:52	Joanna Lawn (NZL)	09:14:35
2011	Cameron Brown (NZL)	08:31:07	Samantha Warriner (NZL)	09:28:24
2013	Bevan Docherty (NZL)	08:15:35	Meredith Kessler (USA)	09:17:10
2014	Marko Albert (EST)	08:17:33	Meredith Kessler (USA)	09:08:46

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Marko Albert	EST	00:46:10	04:36:42	02:50:05	08:17:33
2	Cameron Brown	NZL	00:48:25	04:40:39	02:47:45	08:21:55
3	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	00:46:16	04:43:12	02:54:55	08:28:56

Female Race Results

Rank	Name	Nation	Swim	Bike	Run	Time
1	Meredith Kessler	USA	00:46:47	05:08:30	03:08:06	09:08:46
2	Gina Crawford	NZL	00:51:20	05:10:05	03:08:06	09:15:53
3	Candice Hammond	NZL	00:59:25	05:15:01	03:10:44	09:30:04

Course Records

Leg	Gender	Record	Athlete	Date
Total	overall	08:15:35	Bevan Docherty	2013-03-02
Swim	overall	00:44:47	Brent Foster	2004-03-06
Bike	overall	04:35:06	Bevan Docherty	2013-03-02
Run	overall	02:43:10	Cameron Brown	2009-03-07
Total	female	09:08:46	Meredith Kessler	2014-03-01
Swim	female	00:46:30	Monica Byrn	2005-05-03
Bike	female	05:01:17	Emi Shiono	2008-03-01
Run	female	03:01:06	Mirinda Carfrae	2011-03-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 04:06.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year	Adjustment	Swim Adj.	Bike Adj.	Run Adj.	# of Athletes	Rating	Swim Rating	Bike Rating	Run Rating
2005	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	4	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
2007	04:39	00:53	00:10	04:50	17	04:39	00:53	00:10	04:50
2008	09:12	01:34	02:55	04:19	31	06:55	01:13	01:32	04:35
2009	07:35	00:00	03:43	03:02	27	07:09	00:49	02:16	04:04
2010	05:55	01:02	04:26	03:32	17	06:50	00:52	02:48	03:56
2011	-02:42	00:28	00:36	-01:05	20	04:56	00:47	02:22	02:56
2013	00:32	00:41	03:55	01:27	17	04:12	00:46	02:37	02:41
2014	03:31	01:02	-00:15	03:35	28	04:06	00:49	02:13	02:49

KPR points and Prize Money

IM New Zealand has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75 k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	1	Cameron Brown	NZL	08:22:29	08:27:05	00:49:34	04:38:56	02:48:59	19
2	2	Terenzo Bozzone	NZL	08:29:10	08:34:04	00:46:34	04:42:03	02:55:33	(35)
3	6	Dylan McNeice	NZL	08:46:40	08:46:46	00:44:46	04:50:25	03:06:30	89
4	3	Joel Jameson	GBR	08:49:18	08:52:22	00:56:33	04:51:21	02:56:24	121
5	4	Nick Baldwin	SEY	08:50:54	08:50:22	00:53:14	04:47:19	03:05:20	107
6	30	Alex Reithmeier	AUS	08:51:16	08:50:02	00:47:48	04:49:10	03:09:19	(105)
7	24	Luke Martin	AUS	08:54:20	08:53:13	00:52:06	04:54:56	03:02:17	(124)
8	29	Carl Read	NZL	08:55:09	08:54:59	00:52:31	04:57:58	02:59:40	128
9	10	Todd Skipworth	AUS	08:56:12	08:54:57	00:45:46	04:41:22	03:24:04	(128)
10	9	Simon Cochrane	NZL	08:59:14	09:04:51	00:51:33	04:58:03	03:04:38	184
11	5	Mike Schifferle	SUI	09:02:19	09:04:24	01:00:25	04:51:22	03:05:32	179
12	21	Johan Borg	AUS	09:09:14	09:19:30	00:54:53	04:57:41	03:11:40	(233)
13	7	Jose Jeuland	FRA	09:09:42	09:14:53	00:52:45	05:04:43	03:07:14	211
14	32	Shanon Stallard	NZL	09:13:29	09:20:56	00:55:08	05:04:47	03:08:34	240
15	31	Chris Sanson	NZL	09:16:33	09:12:11	00:54:18	05:05:47	03:11:28	201
16	25	Daiki Masuda	JPN	09:16:52	09:48:07	00:54:52	05:01:49	03:15:12	349
17	22	James Bowstead	NZL	09:18:11	09:34:19	00:52:48	04:47:40	03:32:43	(293)
18	34	Marcus Hultgren	SWE	09:48:51	09:31:24	00:58:29	05:03:07	03:42:15	(287)
19	23	James Cotter	USA	10:05:14	10:06:50	00:47:52	05:05:03	04:07:19	(410)
	8	Andrew Yoder	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	26	Graham O’Grady	NZL	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	27	Young Hwan Oh	KOR	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)
	33	Ricky Swindale	AUS	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank	Bib	Name	Nation	Expected Time	Rating	Exp. Swim	Exp. Bike	Exp. Run	Overall
1	11	Meredith Kessler	USA	09:08:31	09:21:17	00:48:15	05:03:02	03:12:14	15
2	12	Gina Crawford	NZL	09:14:52	09:22:45	00:51:05	05:10:29	03:08:18	16
3	14	Mareen Hufe	GER	09:31:41	09:36:43	00:59:15	05:05:11	03:22:15	42
4	15	Stephanie Jones	USA	09:41:29	09:51:03	01:04:53	05:16:16	03:15:20	(82)
5	13	Melanie Burke	NZL	09:42:08	09:49:20	01:05:36	05:14:23	03:17:08	77
6	17	Erin Furness	NZL	10:05:40	10:11:50	01:00:44	05:31:59	03:27:57	130
7	16	Conny Dauben	GER	10:52:52	10:57:22	01:07:18	05:40:58	03:59:36	172
	18	Jocelyn Mccauley	USA	n/a	unrated	unrated	unrated	unrated	(n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Cam Brown is the clear favorite for another New Zealand title. Terns Bozzone has been working on his IM skills for a while but hasn’t had a break-through race just yet. Maybe this is the year he can finally nail an Ironman race? Dylan McNeice will probably not be on top of his game after winning IM Wanaka just two weeks before but you never know how these doubles turn out:

• Cameron Brown: 64% (1-1)
• Terenzo Bozzone: 26% (3-1)
• Dylan McNeice: 4% (23-1)

Female Race Participants

Meredith Kessler is the clear female favorite. If nothing goes wrong for „MBK“, she should win her fourth New Zealand title in a row. Her main contender, Gina Crawford, is also just coming off another IM-distance race – winning Challenge Wanaka. Maybe Mareen Hufe can deliver another great performance on the „fifth continent“ after her great second place at Ironman Western Australia in early December.

• Meredith Kessler: 59% (1-1)
• Gina Crawford: 29% (2-1)
• Mareen Hufe: 9% (10-1)
• Stephanie Jones: 2% (51-1)