Ironman South Africa 2018 (Apr 15th) – Seedings

Analysis of IM South Africa is supported by Neil Cooper. Neil lives in Northern Island but is going to race IM South Africa. While he’s in the country he will also attend his son’s wedding a few days after the race. All the best to Neil and to his son (and his son’s bride!) for the upcoming wedding.

Update March 31st: Michelle Vesterby won’t be racing South Africa, she plans to do IM Texas.

Update April 9th: Nikki Bartlett won’t be able to race, she crashed riding her bike shortly before leaving for South Africa. Quick recovery!

Update April 10th: James Cunnama tweeted that he’ll need more time to build his fitness and won’t be racing this Sunday.

IMSA_LogoPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2006 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:36:06 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:46:38
2007 Gerrit Schellens (BEL) 08:33:05 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:22:01
2008 Stephen Bayliss (GBR) 08:18:23 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:27:48
2009 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:17:32 Lucie Zelenkova (CZE) 09:16:32
2010 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:23:28 Sonja Tajsich (GER) 09:16:55
2011 Raynard Tissink (ZAF) 08:05:36 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:33:56
2012 Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) 08:34:45 Natascha Badmann (SUI) 09:47:10
2013 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 08:11:24 Jessie Donavan (USA) 09:10:58
2014 Nils Frommhold (GER) 08:26:07 Simone Braendli (SUI) 09:31:54
2015 Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) 08:16:35 Jodie Cunnama (GBR) 09:26:56
2016 Ben Hoffman (USA) 08:12:37 Kaisa Sali (FIN) 09:06:50
2017 Ben Hoffman (USA) 07:58:40 Daniela Ryf (SUI) 08:47:02

Last Year’s TOP 3

Here’s the link to last year’s full results and analysis.

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Ben Hoffman USA 00:49:14 04:22:33 02:42:52 07:58:40
2 Nils Frommhold GER 00:49:05 04:22:31 02:43:43 07:59:30
3 David McNamee GBR 00:49:09 04:28:45 02:45:36 08:07:31

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniela Ryf SUI 00:53:48 04:50:50 02:57:27 08:47:02
2 Kaisa Sali FIN 00:55:29 04:53:03 02:59:10 08:52:26
3 Susie Cheetham GBR 00:53:56 04:57:43 03:08:36 09:04:49

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:58:40 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Swim overall 00:45:22 Anton Storm 2009-04-05
Bike overall 04:19:41 Raynard Tissink 2011-04-10
Run overall 02:42:52 Ben Hoffman 2017-04-02
Total female 08:33:56 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Swim female 00:47:40 Lucie Zelenkova 2009-04-05
Bike female 04:45:23 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10
Run female 02:52:54 Chrissie Wellington 2011-04-10

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 03:26.

Race Adjustments for IM South Africa

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2006 01:35 -04:53 -01:53 -00:21 28 01:35 -04:53 -01:53 -00:21
2007 01:16 -08:52 03:31 00:49 33 01:26 -06:52 00:49 00:14
2008 15:32 01:13 11:14 04:15 36 06:08 -04:11 04:18 01:34
2009 17:18 02:09 10:45 -01:03 28 08:55 -02:36 05:54 00:55
2010 09:39 -00:15 08:15 01:15 34 09:04 -02:08 06:23 00:59
2011 15:31 00:13 14:40 01:56 36 10:08 -01:44 07:45 01:08
2012 -11:59 -08:35 -08:23 01:54 28 06:59 -02:43 05:27 01:15
2013 06:23 -01:17 11:20 03:07 36 of 44 06:54 -02:32 06:11 01:29
2014 -12:13 -01:05 -08:46 -02:56 29 of 40 04:47 -02:22 04:32 00:59
2015 -13:45 -00:47 -10:09 -00:57 49 of 61 02:56 -02:13 03:04 00:48
2016 03:32 -02:43 09:06 01:34 42 of 53 02:59 -02:16 03:37 00:52
2017 08:21 -00:05 08:49 01:36 43 of 63 03:26 -02:05 04:03 00:56

KPR points and Prize Money

IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$ and automatic Kona qualifier slots for the winners.

Estimated Time Plan

The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete to end each leg or finish the race. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:

What Racetime Local Time
Male Pro Start 06:30
Female Pro Start 06:35
Age Group Start 06:45
First Male Out of Water 00:48 07:18
First Female Out of Water 00:49 07:24
First Male End of Bike 05:17 11:47
First Female End of Bike 05:52 12:27
Male Winner 08:08 14:38
Female Winner 09:02 15:37

Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:

  • +8 hours: Melbourne (AEST), race starts at 2:30 pm
  • -1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30
  • no change: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30
  • – 6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
  • – 9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday

There is going to be live TV coverage for the race in South Africa, so we can expect a live stream on Ironman.com as well.

Male Race Participants

The strength of the field is 25% of a typical Kona field.

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Consistency
Overall
1 1 Ben Hoffman USA 08:07:57 08:17:42 00:50:31 04:25:44 05:21:15 02:46:42 43% +47% -9% (20) 9
2 4 James Cunnama ZAF 08:15:13 08:20:37 00:50:30 04:26:22 05:21:52 02:53:21 45% +35% -19% (26) 14
3 17 Maurice Clavel GER 08:17:19 08:38:13 00:50:21 04:25:08 05:20:29 02:56:50 47% +0% -53% (2) (70)
4 5 Matt Trautman ZAF 08:21:30 08:25:10 00:52:39 04:33:53 05:31:31 02:49:59 80% +0% -20% (6) (22)
5 8 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 08:22:45 08:28:02 00:54:05 04:31:45 05:30:51 02:51:54 61% +0% -38% (34) 32
6 2 Kyle Buckingham ZAF 08:22:49 08:31:55 00:51:03 04:33:43 05:29:47 02:53:02 65% +12% -22% (14) 47
7 18 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:25:40 08:27:28 00:53:21 04:38:56 05:37:17 02:48:23 73% +0% -27% (13) 30
8 7 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:26:18 08:28:58 00:50:31 04:29:49 05:25:20 03:00:58 85% +0% -15% (33) 34
9 6 Cameron Wurf AUS 08:27:18 08:32:00 00:51:54 04:20:31 05:17:25 03:09:53 45% +43% -12% (9) 49
10 27 Giulio Molinari ITA 08:28:19 08:31:38 00:50:30 04:31:09 05:26:39 03:01:40 100% +0% -0% (3) 45
11 12 Peru Alfaro ESP 08:28:55 08:45:47 00:49:08 04:38:37 05:32:45 02:56:10 82% +0% -18% (3) (90)
12 32 Evert Scheltinga NED 08:29:43 08:34:05 00:51:01 04:30:56 05:26:57 03:02:46 77% +0% -23% (4) 55
13 3 Josh Amberger AUS 08:32:44 08:35:28 00:48:22 04:28:32 05:21:54 03:10:50 57% +27% -15% (4) 61
14 11 Markus Fachbach GER 08:33:21 08:41:20 00:51:48 04:36:25 05:33:14 03:00:07 60% +1% -40% (22) 80
15 9 Michael Raelert GER 08:33:41 08:54:08 00:49:50 04:40:32 05:35:21 02:58:20 31% +0% -69% (4) (120)
16 15 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:35:41 08:49:52 00:49:49 04:45:52 05:40:41 02:55:00 34% +27% -39% (10) 104
17 20 Pedro Gomes POR 08:37:50 08:43:05 00:53:49 04:44:12 05:43:01 02:54:49 57% +1% -43% (30) 83
18 33 Jonathan Shearon USA 08:40:53 08:49:21 00:55:58 04:38:17 05:39:15 03:01:38 66% +6% -28% (20) 102
19 24 Philipp Koutny SUI 08:42:26 08:56:30 00:52:51 04:36:30 05:34:22 03:08:04 46% +0% -54% (7) 131
20 31 Michael Ruenz GER 08:43:26 08:51:56 00:57:17 04:45:22 05:47:39 02:55:47 68% +0% -32% (12) 113
21 34 Darby Thomas FIN 08:48:38 09:01:05 01:01:14 04:41:43 05:47:57 03:00:41 53% +0% -47% (12) 153
22 28 Hans Muehlbauer GER 09:09:16 09:23:25 00:54:07 05:05:33 06:04:40 03:04:36 45% +0% -55% (10) (220)
23 10 Gerhard De Bruin ZAF 09:16:31 09:29:52 00:57:10 04:57:10 05:59:20 03:17:11 76% +24% -0% (6) (234)
24 21 Christian Jais GER 09:17:05 09:40:35 00:58:45 04:48:30 05:52:15 03:24:50 18% +31% -51% (3) (258)
25 16 Bekim Christensen DEN 09:19:59 09:56:46 01:06:58 04:54:09 06:06:07 03:13:52 11% +0% -89% (3) (273)
26 19 Alain Djouad-Guibert MOR 10:29:54 11:05:02 01:16:02 05:12:41 06:33:42 03:56:12 12% +21% -67% (5) (295)
27 23 Aleksander Kochetkov LTU 10:51:18 11:11:58 01:11:38 05:38:42 06:55:20 03:55:58 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (296)
14 Reece Barclay GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
22 Bruno Joaquim BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
25 Philippe Lamberty LUX n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
29 Sebastian Norberg SWE n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)
30 Artem Parienko RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)

Female Race Participants

The strength of the field is 30% of a typical Kona field.

#
Bib
Name
Nat
Expected
Rating
ESwim
EBike
ET2
ERun
Consistency
Overall
1 42 Lucy Charles GBR 09:01:43 09:11:18 00:49:24 04:57:59 05:52:23 03:09:20 21% +79% -0% (3) 4
2 41 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:09:57 09:14:05 00:56:40 05:03:28 06:05:09 03:04:48 87% +0% -13% (8) 5
3 49 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:15:58 09:19:44 00:54:21 05:01:25 06:00:46 03:15:12 78% +1% -20% (24) 8
4 44 Linsey Corbin USA 09:17:40 09:19:59 01:00:21 05:05:40 06:11:01 03:06:39 95% +5% -0% (24) 9
5 63 Maja Stage Nielsen DEN 09:19:55 09:22:13 01:01:00 05:05:09 06:11:09 03:08:46 100% +0% -0% (3) 17
6 46 Katja Konschak GER 09:29:18 09:43:02 00:55:44 05:16:45 06:17:29 03:11:49 42% +38% -20% (20) 49
7 45 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:32:33 09:40:34 01:03:11 05:14:29 06:22:40 03:09:53 70% +18% -12% (10) 46
8 59 Rachel McBride CAN 09:33:53 09:41:52 00:55:02 04:59:25 05:59:28 03:34:25 100% +0% -0% (3) 48
9 51 Annah Watkinson ZAF 09:34:21 09:48:01 01:01:00 05:10:37 06:16:36 03:17:45 58% +0% -42% (6) 57
10 47 Nikki Bartlett GBR 09:36:25 09:54:15 01:01:42 05:08:09 06:14:51 03:21:34 69% +0% -31% (4) 69
11 53 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:42:08 09:49:02 00:57:36 05:23:14 06:25:50 03:16:18 74% +19% -8% (15) 61
12 58 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:42:28 10:20:29 00:57:34 05:16:41 06:19:15 03:23:13 20% +7% -73% (11) (115)
13 48 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:42:35 09:53:30 01:13:07 05:10:58 06:29:05 03:13:30 77% +23% -0% (17) 67
14 57 Martina Kunz SUI 09:43:07 09:55:40 01:04:41 05:10:42 06:20:23 03:22:44 100% +0% -0% (2) (71)
15 60 Leslie DiMichele Miller USA 09:45:11 09:54:25 01:00:09 05:23:14 06:28:23 03:16:48 72% +16% -12% (8) 70
16 55 Manon Genet FRA 09:48:57 10:00:17 01:00:20 05:08:17 06:13:37 03:35:20 27% +37% -35% (3) (76)
17 56 Corina Hengartner SUI 09:49:20 10:06:37 01:04:04 05:12:30 06:21:34 03:27:46 34% +32% -34% (7) 90
18 62 Lina-Kristin Schink GER 09:57:48 10:15:09 01:12:49 05:22:52 06:40:42 03:17:06 57% +18% -24% (10) 109
19 54 Camille Donat FRA 10:13:45 10:33:13 00:53:28 05:30:11 06:28:40 03:45:05 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (132)
20 61 Charlotte Morel FRA 10:31:25 10:51:28 00:56:38 05:16:24 06:18:01 04:13:24 n/a (1 IM Pro race) (144)
21 52 Patricia Bueno Perez ESP 10:43:15 11:04:27 01:05:57 05:44:27 06:55:25 03:47:50 46% +54% -0% (2) (148)
43 Emma Pallant GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (no IM Pro race) (n/a)
50 Judith Corachan Vacquero ESP n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a (1 IM Pro race) (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Ben Hoffman, the winner of the last two years, is back to defend his title and is the favorite to extend his winning streak in Port Elizabeth. James Cunnama has been chasing a good result in his home IM for a long time, he hopes to win this race since his third place in 2011. Last year he was a disappointing tenth, but since then he’s been superb on the IM distance, including a win at IM Hamburg and a fifth in Kona. Two Australians are expected to play a big role in the race: Josh Amberger will likely lead the race in T1, and Cam Wurf should be the fastest bike rider in the field and should take the lead before T2, maybe even posting a new bike course record (provided the conditions are favorable). But as always in a Regional Championship field, there are lots of candidates for the win and almost the whole field looks to score solid points for a potential Kona qualification.

  • Ben Hoffman: 56% (1-1)
  • James Cunnama: 22% (3-1)
  • Josh Amberger: 6% (17-1)
  • Ronnie Schildknecht: 5% (19-1)
  • Kyle Buckingham: 3% (35-1)
  • Alessandro Degasperi: 2% (55-1)
  • Matt Trautman: 2% (57-1)
  • Cameron Wurf: 2% (65-1)

Female Race Participants

For various reasons, none of the previous champions are on the start list this year, so we are going to have a new winner. The odds are favoring one of the British to come home with the title: Lucy Charles made great improvements in 2017 and looks like a very likely T1 and T2 leader, but Susie Cheetham has also had a very solid 2017 season and has been on the podium in Port Elizabeth in all three of her IM South Africa starts. With Emma Pallant there is another interesting British athlete in the field: The second place finisher at 70.3 Worlds will be racing her first Ironman. Michelle Vesterby (20 IM finishes) and Linsey Corbin (23 IM finishes) are two experienced athletes that also have good winning chances, but there are a lot more athletes on the start list that will look for a good start of the season after their winter training block.

  • Lucy Charles: 44% (1-1)
  • Susie Cheetham: 31% (2-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 17% (5-1)
  • Linsey Corbin: 5% (17-1)

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