Analysis of IM South Africa is supported by Neil Cooper. Neil lives in Northern Island but is going to race IM South Africa. While he’s in the country he will also attend his son’s wedding a few days after the race. All the best to Neil and to his son (and his son’s bride!) for the upcoming wedding.
Update March 31st: Michelle Vesterby won’t be racing South Africa, she plans to do IM Texas.
Update April 9th: Nikki Bartlett won’t be able to race, she crashed riding her bike shortly before leaving for South Africa. Quick recovery!
Update April 10th: James Cunnama tweeted that he’ll need more time to build his fitness and won’t be racing this Sunday.
Previous Winners
| Year | Male Winner | Time | Female Winner | Time |
| 2006 | Gerrit Schellens (BEL) | 08:36:06 | Natascha Badmann (SUI) | 09:46:38 |
| 2007 | Gerrit Schellens (BEL) | 08:33:05 | Natascha Badmann (SUI) | 09:22:01 |
| 2008 | Stephen Bayliss (GBR) | 08:18:23 | Bella Bayliss (GBR) | 09:27:48 |
| 2009 | Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) | 08:17:32 | Lucie Zelenkova (CZE) | 09:16:32 |
| 2010 | Raynard Tissink (ZAF) | 08:23:28 | Sonja Tajsich (GER) | 09:16:55 |
| 2011 | Raynard Tissink (ZAF) | 08:05:36 | Chrissie Wellington (GBR) | 08:33:56 |
| 2012 | Clemente Alonso McKernan (ESP) | 08:34:45 | Natascha Badmann (SUI) | 09:47:10 |
| 2013 | Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) | 08:11:24 | Jessie Donavan (USA) | 09:10:58 |
| 2014 | Nils Frommhold (GER) | 08:26:07 | Simone Braendli (SUI) | 09:31:54 |
| 2015 | Frederik Van Lierde (BEL) | 08:16:35 | Jodie Cunnama (GBR) | 09:26:56 |
| 2016 | Ben Hoffman (USA) | 08:12:37 | Kaisa Sali (FIN) | 09:06:50 |
| 2017 | Ben Hoffman (USA) | 07:58:40 | Daniela Ryf (SUI) | 08:47:02 |
Last Year’s TOP 3
Here’s the link to last year’s full results and analysis.
Male Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Ben Hoffman | USA | 00:49:14 | 04:22:33 | 02:42:52 | 07:58:40 |
| 2 | Nils Frommhold | GER | 00:49:05 | 04:22:31 | 02:43:43 | 07:59:30 |
| 3 | David McNamee | GBR | 00:49:09 | 04:28:45 | 02:45:36 | 08:07:31 |
Female Race Results
| Rank | Name | Nation | Swim | Bike | Run | Time |
| 1 | Daniela Ryf | SUI | 00:53:48 | 04:50:50 | 02:57:27 | 08:47:02 |
| 2 | Kaisa Sali | FIN | 00:55:29 | 04:53:03 | 02:59:10 | 08:52:26 |
| 3 | Susie Cheetham | GBR | 00:53:56 | 04:57:43 | 03:08:36 | 09:04:49 |
Course Records
| Leg | Gender | Record | Athlete | Date |
| Total | overall | 07:58:40 | Ben Hoffman | 2017-04-02 |
| Swim | overall | 00:45:22 | Anton Storm | 2009-04-05 |
| Bike | overall | 04:19:41 | Raynard Tissink | 2011-04-10 |
| Run | overall | 02:42:52 | Ben Hoffman | 2017-04-02 |
| Total | female | 08:33:56 | Chrissie Wellington | 2011-04-10 |
| Swim | female | 00:47:40 | Lucie Zelenkova | 2009-04-05 |
| Bike | female | 04:45:23 | Chrissie Wellington | 2011-04-10 |
| Run | female | 02:52:54 | Chrissie Wellington | 2011-04-10 |
Course Rating
The Course Rating for IM South Africa is 03:26.
Race Adjustments for IM South Africa
| Year | Adjustment | Swim Adj. | Bike Adj. | Run Adj. | # of Finishers | Rating | Swim Rating | Bike Rating | Run Rating |
| 2006 | 01:35 | -04:53 | -01:53 | -00:21 | 28 | 01:35 | -04:53 | -01:53 | -00:21 |
| 2007 | 01:16 | -08:52 | 03:31 | 00:49 | 33 | 01:26 | -06:52 | 00:49 | 00:14 |
| 2008 | 15:32 | 01:13 | 11:14 | 04:15 | 36 | 06:08 | -04:11 | 04:18 | 01:34 |
| 2009 | 17:18 | 02:09 | 10:45 | -01:03 | 28 | 08:55 | -02:36 | 05:54 | 00:55 |
| 2010 | 09:39 | -00:15 | 08:15 | 01:15 | 34 | 09:04 | -02:08 | 06:23 | 00:59 |
| 2011 | 15:31 | 00:13 | 14:40 | 01:56 | 36 | 10:08 | -01:44 | 07:45 | 01:08 |
| 2012 | -11:59 | -08:35 | -08:23 | 01:54 | 28 | 06:59 | -02:43 | 05:27 | 01:15 |
| 2013 | 06:23 | -01:17 | 11:20 | 03:07 | 36 of 44 | 06:54 | -02:32 | 06:11 | 01:29 |
| 2014 | -12:13 | -01:05 | -08:46 | -02:56 | 29 of 40 | 04:47 | -02:22 | 04:32 | 00:59 |
| 2015 | -13:45 | -00:47 | -10:09 | -00:57 | 49 of 61 | 02:56 | -02:13 | 03:04 | 00:48 |
| 2016 | 03:32 | -02:43 | 09:06 | 01:34 | 42 of 53 | 02:59 | -02:16 | 03:37 | 00:52 |
| 2017 | 08:21 | -00:05 | 08:49 | 01:36 | 43 of 63 | 03:26 | -02:05 | 04:03 | 00:56 |
KPR points and Prize Money
IM South Africa is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$ and automatic Kona qualifier slots for the winners.
Estimated Time Plan
The following table shows the time plan for the race start and the estimated times for the first athlete to end each leg or finish the race. The estimates are based on the start time and my time estimates, these times can change based on how fast or slow the race ends up:
| What | Racetime | Local Time |
| Male Pro Start | 06:30 | |
| Female Pro Start | 06:35 | |
| Age Group Start | 06:45 | |
| First Male Out of Water | 00:48 | 07:18 |
| First Female Out of Water | 00:49 | 07:24 |
| First Male End of Bike | 05:17 | 11:47 |
| First Female End of Bike | 05:52 | 12:27 |
| Male Winner | 08:08 | 14:38 |
| Female Winner | 09:02 | 15:37 |
Port Elizabeth is on South Africa Standard Time, 2 hours ahead of UTC. Here are the conversions to a few other time zones:
- +8 hours: Melbourne (AEST), race starts at 2:30 pm
- -1 hour: United Kingdom (BST), race starts at 5:30
- no change: Central Europe (CEST), race starts at 6:30
- – 6 hours: US East Coast (EDT), race starts at 12:30am
- – 9 hours: US West Coast (PDT), race starts at 9:30pm on Saturday
There is going to be live TV coverage for the race in South Africa, so we can expect a live stream on Ironman.com as well.
Male Race Participants
The strength of the field is 25% of a typical Kona field.
|
#
|
Bib
|
Name
|
Nat
|
Expected
|
Rating
|
ESwim
|
EBike
|
ET2
|
ERun
|
Consistency
|
Overall
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Ben Hoffman | USA | 08:07:57 | 08:17:42 | 00:50:31 | 04:25:44 | 05:21:15 | 02:46:42 | 43% +47% -9% (20) | 9 |
| 3 | 17 | Maurice Clavel | GER | 08:17:19 | 08:38:13 | 00:50:21 | 04:25:08 | 05:20:29 | 02:56:50 | 47% +0% -53% (2) | (70) |
| 4 | 5 | Matt Trautman | ZAF | 08:21:30 | 08:25:10 | 00:52:39 | 04:33:53 | 05:31:31 | 02:49:59 | 80% +0% -20% (6) | (22) |
| 5 | 8 | Ronnie Schildknecht | SUI | 08:22:45 | 08:28:02 | 00:54:05 | 04:31:45 | 05:30:51 | 02:51:54 | 61% +0% -38% (34) | 32 |
| 6 | 2 | Kyle Buckingham | ZAF | 08:22:49 | 08:31:55 | 00:51:03 | 04:33:43 | 05:29:47 | 02:53:02 | 65% +12% -22% (14) | 47 |
| 7 | 18 | Alessandro Degasperi | ITA | 08:25:40 | 08:27:28 | 00:53:21 | 04:38:56 | 05:37:17 | 02:48:23 | 73% +0% -27% (13) | 30 |
| 8 | 7 | Eneko Llanos | ESP | 08:26:18 | 08:28:58 | 00:50:31 | 04:29:49 | 05:25:20 | 03:00:58 | 85% +0% -15% (33) | 34 |
| 9 | 6 | Cameron Wurf | AUS | 08:27:18 | 08:32:00 | 00:51:54 | 04:20:31 | 05:17:25 | 03:09:53 | 45% +43% -12% (9) | 49 |
| 10 | 27 | Giulio Molinari | ITA | 08:28:19 | 08:31:38 | 00:50:30 | 04:31:09 | 05:26:39 | 03:01:40 | 100% +0% -0% (3) | 45 |
| 11 | 12 | Peru Alfaro | ESP | 08:28:55 | 08:45:47 | 00:49:08 | 04:38:37 | 05:32:45 | 02:56:10 | 82% +0% -18% (3) | (90) |
| 1 |
|||||||||||
| 13 | 3 | Josh Amberger | AUS | 08:32:44 | 08:35:28 | 00:48:22 | 04:28:32 | 05:21:54 | 03:10:50 | 57% +27% -15% (4) | 61 |
| 14 | 11 | Markus Fachbach | GER | 08:33:21 | 08:41:20 | 00:51:48 | 04:36:25 | 05:33:14 | 03:00:07 | 60% +1% -40% (22) | 80 |
| 15 | 9 | Michael Raelert | GER | 08:33:41 | 08:54:08 | 00:49:50 | 04:40:32 | 05:35:21 | 02:58:20 | 31% +0% -69% (4) | (120) |
| 16 | 15 | Alberto Casadei | ITA | 08:35:41 | 08:49:52 | 00:49:49 | 04:45:52 | 05:40:41 | 02:55:00 | 34% +27% -39% (10) | 104 |
| 17 | 20 | Pedro Gomes | POR | 08:37:50 | 08:43:05 | 00:53:49 | 04:44:12 | 05:43:01 | 02:54:49 | 57% +1% -43% (30) | 83 |
| 18 | 33 | Jonathan Shearon | USA | 08:40:53 | 08:49:21 | 00:55:58 | 04:38:17 | 05:39:15 | 03:01:38 | 66% +6% -28% (20) | 102 |
| 19 | 24 | Philipp Koutny | SUI | 08:42:26 | 08:56:30 | 00:52:51 | 04:36:30 | 05:34:22 | 03:08:04 | 46% +0% -54% (7) | 131 |
| 20 | 31 | Michael Ruenz | GER | 08:43:26 | 08:51:56 | 00:57:17 | 04:45:22 | 05:47:39 | 02:55:47 | 68% +0% -32% (12) | 113 |
| 21 | 34 | Darby Thomas | FIN | 08:48:38 | 09:01:05 | 01:01:14 | 04:41:43 | 05:47:57 | 03:00:41 | 53% +0% -47% (12) | 153 |
| 22 | 28 | Hans Muehlbauer | GER | 09:09:16 | 09:23:25 | 00:54:07 | 05:05:33 | 06:04:40 | 03:04:36 | 45% +0% -55% (10) | (220) |
| 23 | 10 | Gerhard De Bruin | ZAF | 09:16:31 | 09:29:52 | 00:57:10 | 04:57:10 | 05:59:20 | 03:17:11 | 76% +24% -0% (6) | (234) |
| 24 | 21 | Christian Jais | GER | 09:17:05 | 09:40:35 | 00:58:45 | 04:48:30 | 05:52:15 | 03:24:50 | 18% +31% -51% (3) | (258) |
| 25 | 16 | Bekim Christensen | DEN | 09:19:59 | 09:56:46 | 01:06:58 | 04:54:09 | 06:06:07 | 03:13:52 | 11% +0% -89% (3) | (273) |
| 26 | 19 | Alain Djouad-Guibert | MOR | 10:29:54 | 11:05:02 | 01:16:02 | 05:12:41 | 06:33:42 | 03:56:12 | 12% +21% -67% (5) | (295) |
| 27 | 23 | Aleksander Kochetkov | LTU | 10:51:18 | 11:11:58 | 01:11:38 | 05:38:42 | 06:55:20 | 03:55:58 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (296) |
| 14 | Reece Barclay | GBR | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 22 | Bruno Joaquim | BRA | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 25 | Philippe Lamberty | LUX | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 29 | Sebastian Norberg | SWE | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 30 | Artem Parienko | RUS | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) |
Female Race Participants
The strength of the field is 30% of a typical Kona field.
|
#
|
Bib
|
Name
|
Nat
|
Expected
|
Rating
|
ESwim
|
EBike
|
ET2
|
ERun
|
Consistency
|
Overall
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 42 | Lucy Charles | GBR | 09:01:43 | 09:11:18 | 00:49:24 | 04:57:59 | 05:52:23 | 03:09:20 | 21% +79% -0% (3) | 4 |
| 2 | 41 | Susie Cheetham | GBR | 09:09:57 | 09:14:05 | 00:56:40 | 05:03:28 | 06:05:09 | 03:04:48 | 87% +0% -13% (8) | 5 |
| 4 | 44 | Linsey Corbin | USA | 09:17:40 | 09:19:59 | 01:00:21 | 05:05:40 | 06:11:01 | 03:06:39 | 95% +5% -0% (24) | 9 |
| 5 | 63 | Maja Stage Nielsen | DEN | 09:19:55 | 09:22:13 | 01:01:00 | 05:05:09 | 06:11:09 | 03:08:46 | 100% +0% -0% (3) | 17 |
| 6 | 46 | Katja Konschak | GER | 09:29:18 | 09:43:02 | 00:55:44 | 05:16:45 | 06:17:29 | 03:11:49 | 42% +38% -20% (20) | 49 |
| 7 | 45 | Gurutze Frades Larralde | ESP | 09:32:33 | 09:40:34 | 01:03:11 | 05:14:29 | 06:22:40 | 03:09:53 | 70% +18% -12% (10) | 46 |
| 8 | 59 | Rachel McBride | CAN | 09:33:53 | 09:41:52 | 00:55:02 | 04:59:25 | 05:59:28 | 03:34:25 | 100% +0% -0% (3) | 48 |
| 9 | 51 | Annah Watkinson | ZAF | 09:34:21 | 09:48:01 | 01:01:00 | 05:10:37 | 06:16:36 | 03:17:45 | 58% +0% -42% (6) | 57 |
| 11 | 53 | Saleta Castro Nogueira | ESP | 09:42:08 | 09:49:02 | 00:57:36 | 05:23:14 | 06:25:50 | 03:16:18 | 74% +19% -8% (15) | 61 |
| 12 | 58 | Carolin Lehrieder | GER | 09:42:28 | 10:20:29 | 00:57:34 | 05:16:41 | 06:19:15 | 03:23:13 | 20% +7% -73% (11) | (115) |
| 13 | 48 | Katharina Grohmann | GER | 09:42:35 | 09:53:30 | 01:13:07 | 05:10:58 | 06:29:05 | 03:13:30 | 77% +23% -0% (17) | 67 |
| 14 | 57 | Martina Kunz | SUI | 09:43:07 | 09:55:40 | 01:04:41 | 05:10:42 | 06:20:23 | 03:22:44 | 100% +0% -0% (2) | (71) |
| 15 | 60 | Leslie DiMichele Miller | USA | 09:45:11 | 09:54:25 | 01:00:09 | 05:23:14 | 06:28:23 | 03:16:48 | 72% +16% -12% (8) | 70 |
| 16 | 55 | Manon Genet | FRA | 09:48:57 | 10:00:17 | 01:00:20 | 05:08:17 | 06:13:37 | 03:35:20 | 27% +37% -35% (3) | (76) |
| 17 | 56 | Corina Hengartner | SUI | 09:49:20 | 10:06:37 | 01:04:04 | 05:12:30 | 06:21:34 | 03:27:46 | 34% +32% -34% (7) | 90 |
| 18 | 62 | Lina-Kristin Schink | GER | 09:57:48 | 10:15:09 | 01:12:49 | 05:22:52 | 06:40:42 | 03:17:06 | 57% +18% -24% (10) | 109 |
| 19 | 54 | Camille Donat | FRA | 10:13:45 | 10:33:13 | 00:53:28 | 05:30:11 | 06:28:40 | 03:45:05 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (132) |
| 20 | 61 | Charlotte Morel | FRA | 10:31:25 | 10:51:28 | 00:56:38 | 05:16:24 | 06:18:01 | 04:13:24 | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (144) |
| 21 | 52 | Patricia Bueno Perez | ESP | 10:43:15 | 11:04:27 | 01:05:57 | 05:44:27 | 06:55:25 | 03:47:50 | 46% +54% -0% (2) | (148) |
| 43 | Emma Pallant | GBR | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (no IM Pro race) | (n/a) | |
| 50 | Judith Corachan Vacquero | ESP | n/a | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | unrated | n/a (1 IM Pro race) | (n/a) |
Winning Odds
Male Race Participants
Ben Hoffman, the winner of the last two years, is back to defend his title and is the favorite to extend his winning streak in Port Elizabeth. James Cunnama has been chasing a good result in his home IM for a long time, he hopes to win this race since his third place in 2011. Last year he was a disappointing tenth, but since then he’s been superb on the IM distance, including a win at IM Hamburg and a fifth in Kona. Two Australians are expected to play a big role in the race: Josh Amberger will likely lead the race in T1, and Cam Wurf should be the fastest bike rider in the field and should take the lead before T2, maybe even posting a new bike course record (provided the conditions are favorable). But as always in a Regional Championship field, there are lots of candidates for the win and almost the whole field looks to score solid points for a potential Kona qualification.
- Ben Hoffman: 56% (1-1)
James Cunnama: 22% (3-1)- Josh Amberger: 6% (17-1)
- Ronnie Schildknecht: 5% (19-1)
- Kyle Buckingham: 3% (35-1)
- Alessandro Degasperi: 2% (55-1)
- Matt Trautman: 2% (57-1)
- Cameron Wurf: 2% (65-1)
Female Race Participants
For various reasons, none of the previous champions are on the start list this year, so we are going to have a new winner. The odds are favoring one of the British to come home with the title: Lucy Charles made great improvements in 2017 and looks like a very likely T1 and T2 leader, but Susie Cheetham has also had a very solid 2017 season and has been on the podium in Port Elizabeth in all three of her IM South Africa starts. With Emma Pallant there is another interesting British athlete in the field: The second place finisher at 70.3 Worlds will be racing her first Ironman. Michelle Vesterby (20 IM finishes) and Linsey Corbin (23 IM finishes) are two experienced athletes that also have good winning chances, but there are a lot more athletes on the start list that will look for a good start of the season after their winter training block.
- Lucy Charles: 44% (1-1)
- Susie Cheetham: 31% (2-1)
Michelle Vesterby: 17% (5-1)- Linsey Corbin: 5% (17-1)