Ironman UK 2013 – Predictions

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Daniel Halksworth GBR 00:47:56 05:00:23 03:03:20 08:55:11
2 Fraser Cartmell GBR 00:48:15 04:59:30 03:15:45 09:07:00
3 Paul Hawkins GBR 00:52:39 05:02:38 03:11:18 09:10:50

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Eimear Mullan IRL 01:03:19 05:42:25 03:18:32 10:08:44
2 Amanda Stevens USA 00:48:19 05:44:46 03:39:07 10:16:57
3 Annett Kamenz GER 01:04:02 05:46:56 03:23:23 10:21:58

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:24:34 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Swim overall 00:43:35 Fraser Cartmell 2010-08-01
Bike overall 04:45:31 Frank Heldoorn 2006-08-16
Run overall 02:41:46 Aaron Farlow 2011-07-31
Total female 09:19:04 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31
Swim female 00:45:34 Dede Griesbauer 2006-08-16
Bike female 05:19:03 Dede Griesbauer 2006-08-16
Run female 02:41:57 Kristin Moeller 2011-07-31

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM UK is 02:35.

Race Adjustments for IM UK

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2006 09:29 05:21 04:21 03:24 18 09:29 05:21 04:21 03:24
2007 08:38 03:24 -04:17 10:22 28 09:04 04:23 00:02 06:53
2008 -02:58 01:14 -13:56 04:20 21 05:03 03:20 -04:37 06:02
2009 01:23 -03:27 -10:14 12:33 16 04:08 01:38 -06:01 07:39
2010 -02:17 04:49 -23:29 11:21 12 02:51 02:16 -09:31 08:24
2011 08:31 05:05 -14:11 24:23 15 03:48 02:44 -10:18 11:04
2012 -04:41 00:04 -09:49 00:46 8 02:35 02:22 -10:14 09:35

KPR points and Price Money

IM UK has 1000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total price purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
1 Joe Skipper GBR 08:40:17 08:42:47 63 00:53:11 04:40:37 03:03:13
2 James McCurdy USA 08:41:52 08:44:23 70 00:54:40 04:39:58 03:08:40
3 Scott Neyedli GBR 08:46:27 08:48:59 91 00:50:44 04:53:45 03:02:29
4 Dorian Wagner GER 08:47:10 08:49:42 98 00:48:53 04:51:38 03:07:11
5 Daniel Halksworth GBR 08:49:37 08:52:10 108 00:47:43 04:49:38 03:09:27
6 Fraser Cartmell GBR 08:52:16 08:54:50 122 00:47:57 04:43:17 03:17:51
7 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:52:32 08:55:06 124 00:47:59 04:50:45 03:06:29
8 Joel Jameson GBR 08:53:50 08:56:24 132 00:57:13 04:57:12 03:01:49
9 Teemu Lemmettylae FIN 08:56:38 08:59:13 148 00:56:14 04:54:34 03:03:06
10 Jens Kaiser GER 08:57:50 09:00:25 160 00:58:30 04:47:53 03:12:07
11 James Brown GBR 09:17:58 09:20:39 288 01:01:30 05:02:15 03:13:32
12 Martin Cain GBR 09:40:08 09:42:55 418 00:57:30 05:10:05 03:27:45
13 Harry Wiltshire GBR 10:30:09 10:33:11 624 00:47:51 05:07:18 04:33:08
  Cedric Lassonde FRA n/a unrated n/a unrated unrated unrated

Female Race Participants

With only six professional women on the start list, this looks like a great chance for late entries:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:21:20 09:24:02 00:57:33 05:16:27 03:07:23 13
2 Bella Bayliss GBR 09:37:56 09:40:43 00:55:41 05:19:18 03:19:06 48
3 Joanna Carritt GBR 10:17:07 10:20:05 01:03:03 05:31:01 03:39:04 167
4 Bethan Fowler GBR 11:11:33 11:14:47 01:03:49 06:02:49 03:56:12 239
  Amy Forshaw   n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a
  Laura Bostock   n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated n/a

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Daniel Halksworth is back to defend his title, but he faces strong competition from a lot of other fast and/or experienced athletes:

  • Dorian Wagner: 30% (2-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 22% (4-1)
  • Scott Neyedli: 15% (6-1)
  • Joel Jameson: 9% (10-1)
  • Teemu Lemmettylae: 7% (13-1)
  • Fraser Cartmell: 5% (18-1)
  • Daniel Halksworth: 5% (20-1)
  • Joe Skipper: 4% (24-1)
  • James McCurdy: 3% (37-1)

Female Race Participants

There is a similar story on the women’s side: “Upcoming” athlete (Lucy Gossage with two fast race results from Barcelona) vs. experience (Bella Bayliss, Jo Carritt):

  • Bella Bayliss: 48% (1-1)
  • Lucy Gossage: 35% (2-1)
  • Joanna Carritt: 12% (7-1)
  • Bethan Fowler: 2% (55-1)

Results for Joe Skipper (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 00:54:08 04:28:14 02:58:38 08:23:57 08:42:47 08:42:47 5

Results for James McCurdy (USA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2012-11-03 00:57:49 04:19:17 03:06:45 08:29:04 08:44:23 08:44:23 9

Results for Scott Neyedli (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:52:18 04:52:37 02:55:24 08:44:37 08:52:09 08:48:59 5
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:51:37 04:32:15 03:01:06 08:29:03 08:41:48 08:48:23 11
IM Australia 2011-05-01       08:47:16 08:51:21 08:49:31 4
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 00:47:44 04:44:24 02:59:05 08:34:45 08:40:33 08:49:13 7
IM Canada 2010-08-29 00:48:59 04:52:15 02:56:37 08:41:36 08:49:28 08:50:47 6
IM Australia 2010-03-28       08:27:58 08:35:43 08:51:02 2
IM Western Australia 2009-12-05 00:47:24 04:37:30 02:52:51 08:17:47 08:29:08 08:54:21 2
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 00:50:15 05:11:52 02:55:44 09:04:29 08:55:22 09:00:36 6
IM UK 2008-09-07 00:51:33 05:11:51 02:57:41 09:04:30 09:01:30 09:02:00 2
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 00:49:25 05:00:08 03:05:35 09:00:17 09:06:02 09:02:08 10
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 00:58:01 04:56:40 03:05:31 09:04:48 09:02:37 09:00:54 31
IM UK 2007-08-19 00:47:07 04:56:55 02:48:32 08:35:57 08:44:12 09:00:13 1
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 01:02:03 04:59:19 03:19:19 09:20:43 09:10:49 09:10:10 7
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 00:52:32 04:58:15 03:03:52 08:57:29 09:09:22 09:09:22 10

Results for Dorian Wagner (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Sweden 2012-08-18 00:48:38 04:26:31 02:49:49 08:08:06 08:34:03 08:49:42 2
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:47:40 04:44:26 02:45:04 08:19:47 08:31:48 08:56:02 7
Challenge Barcelona 2011-10-02 00:48:50 04:37:56 03:41:48 09:11:48 09:21:34 09:11:42 19
IM Austria 2011-07-03 00:46:50 04:44:45 03:00:37 08:37:01 09:01:05 09:01:05 8

Results for Daniel Halksworth (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2013-07-07 00:46:05 04:34:04 03:05:57 08:30:07 08:43:52 08:52:10 16
IM Wales 2012-09-16 00:44:07 05:15:50 02:54:59 09:02:13 09:00:15 08:55:47 4
IM UK 2012-07-22 00:47:56 05:00:23 03:03:20 08:55:11 08:50:33 08:53:25 1
IM Regensburg 2012-06-17 00:45:05 04:52:18 03:08:59 08:50:38 08:56:22 08:56:22 6

Results for Fraser Cartmell (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2013-07-07 00:46:13 04:34:26 03:15:23 08:40:21 08:54:23 08:54:50 24
IM UK 2012-07-22 00:48:15 04:59:30 03:15:45 09:07:00 09:02:15 08:55:01 2
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 00:48:44 04:28:00 03:29:03 08:50:14 09:03:31 08:51:23 25
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 00:51:26 04:39:46 03:12:01 08:47:45 08:47:17 08:42:49 29
IM UK 2010-08-01 00:43:35 05:02:48 02:49:56 08:40:18 08:38:06 08:38:06 1

Results for Stephen Bayliss (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Roth 2013-07-14 00:46:03 04:39:56 03:09:00 08:38:00 08:56:43 08:55:06 14
IM Lanzarote 2013-05-18 00:47:45 05:18:58 03:47:40 10:00:31 09:40:40 08:54:58 10
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 00:48:01 04:35:04 04:19:27 09:44:39 10:06:29 08:51:11 45
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:48:39 04:54:53 02:42:43 08:29:31 08:36:50 08:45:36 1
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:47:24 04:32:15 02:50:52 08:13:01 08:24:52 08:46:18 5
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 00:48:01 05:05:40 02:54:07 08:53:37 08:37:14 08:48:02 2
Challenge Henley 2011-09-18 00:48:01 04:46:07 03:07:27 08:44:31 08:43:08 08:48:57 4
Challenge Vichy 2011-08-21 00:50:20 04:36:27 03:14:48 08:45:28 08:39:24 08:49:23 1
Challenge Kopenhagen 2011-08-01 00:45:22 04:35:29 03:07:12 08:34:52 08:57:46 08:50:10 8
IM Austria 2011-07-03 00:46:41 04:35:08 02:50:29 08:16:47 08:39:55 08:49:32 5
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28       09:04:07 09:13:56 08:50:24 18
IM UK 2010-08-01 00:43:37 05:09:32 02:49:35 08:46:19 08:44:06 08:48:28 2
IM Austria 2010-07-04 00:47:41 04:35:01 03:04:31 08:31:07 08:41:21 08:48:49 6
IM South Africa 2010-04-25 00:47:39 04:48:32 03:01:12 08:40:28 08:45:29 08:49:27 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 00:50:58 05:08:13 03:16:55 09:19:56 09:07:21 08:49:49 45
IM UK 2009-08-02 00:51:13 05:04:50 02:47:43 08:48:30 08:49:52 08:48:22 2
IM Austria 2009-07-05 00:47:32 04:32:32 02:53:20 08:17:06 08:31:13 08:48:15 3
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 00:50:13 05:11:24 02:54:38 09:02:15 08:53:11 08:49:46 5
IM South Africa 2009-04-05 00:47:38 04:48:39 03:07:42 08:47:26 09:02:19 08:49:27 4
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 00:47:55 04:44:14 03:02:15 08:38:29 08:45:47 08:48:10 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:51:41 04:51:58 03:02:01 08:49:38 08:42:35 08:48:25 18
IM UK 2008-09-07 00:45:55 05:09:05 02:56:05 08:53:59 08:51:03 08:49:03 1
IM Austria 2008-07-13 00:46:03 04:39:38 02:44:33 08:13:53 08:29:59 08:48:49 2
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 00:47:29 04:38:20 02:51:02 08:18:23 08:29:25 08:51:10 1
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 00:47:08 04:49:48 02:55:29 08:37:03 08:42:33 08:54:03 4
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 00:48:18 04:35:09 02:54:23 08:17:50 08:40:02 08:55:44 5
IM Florida 2007-11-03 00:49:21 04:41:14 02:57:19 08:30:59 08:49:28 08:58:13 4
IM UK 2007-08-19 00:47:04 04:57:01 02:51:10 08:38:09 08:46:26 08:59:49 2
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 00:49:15 04:54:05 02:53:42 08:37:02 08:46:40 09:02:37 5
IM Florida 2006-11-04 00:50:34 04:53:23 02:56:42 08:43:41 08:55:47 09:06:28 4
IM Brasil 2006-05-28 00:45:46 04:47:49 03:01:27 08:35:01 08:49:18 09:09:14 4
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 00:49:29 04:44:03 03:23:48 09:00:38 09:03:16 09:15:09 14
IM Florida 2005-11-05 00:49:18 04:48:36 03:02:18 08:47:06 09:00:23 09:19:54 6
IM UK 2005-08-21 00:45:45 05:25:30 03:01:03 09:15:14 09:15:14 09:30:35 4
IM Lanzarote 2005-06-04 00:49:51 05:28:37 03:25:36 09:46:55 09:46:55 09:46:55 12

Results for Joel Jameson (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:57:48 04:47:20 02:42:10 08:31:03 08:38:24 08:56:24 2
IM Coeur d’Alene 2012-06-24 01:01:36 05:05:37 02:59:26 09:09:52 09:10:02 09:06:00 6
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 00:58:28 04:53:21 03:03:44 08:59:28 09:07:11 09:04:28 23
IM Florida 2011-11-05 00:56:46 04:36:28 02:56:55 08:35:31 08:55:38 09:03:00 11
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 00:52:57 05:11:27 02:51:12 09:01:48 08:51:15 09:10:03 4
IM UK 2005-08-21 00:57:57 05:46:56 03:57:34 10:48:13 10:48:13 10:48:13 12

Results for Teemu Lemmettylae (FIN)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Sweden 2012-08-18 00:58:39 04:25:48 02:53:39 08:21:51 08:48:31 08:59:13 9
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 00:55:54 04:46:48 02:54:23 08:40:48 08:53:19 09:01:46 12
Challenge Vichy 2011-08-21 01:00:37 04:37:53 03:06:32 08:49:41 08:43:34 09:04:17 2
IM Germany 2011-07-24 00:53:06 04:46:15 02:53:06 08:36:36 08:42:49 09:10:33 10
Challenge Barcelona 2010-10-03 00:55:39 04:35:40 03:15:00 08:50:44 09:05:08 09:22:12 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2009-06-21 00:59:52 05:13:07 03:21:51 09:40:23 09:50:01 09:30:44 14
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 00:51:59 05:22:59 02:55:50 09:18:53 09:07:16 09:20:34 9
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 00:59:38 05:15:44 03:16:43 09:37:54 09:35:35 09:28:57 50
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 00:55:42 05:33:47 02:57:47 09:34:09 09:21:30 09:21:30 9

Results for Jens Kaiser (GER)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:57:46 04:46:58 03:13:27 09:02:41 09:10:29 09:00:25 10
IM Regensburg 2012-06-17 00:57:00 04:43:28 02:58:48 08:43:57 08:49:37 08:49:37 4

Results for James Brown (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2013-06-30 00:55:41 04:50:17 03:06:14 08:57:30 09:20:39 09:20:39 26

Results for Martin Cain (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2013-07-07 00:56:32 04:59:25 03:15:47 09:17:29 09:32:31 09:42:55 38
IM Lanzarote 2013-05-18 00:59:13 05:52:06 03:15:18 10:16:39 09:56:16 09:47:03 12
IM Wales 2012-09-16 00:51:28 05:30:22 03:27:50 09:58:21 09:56:10 09:41:21 14
IM UK 2012-07-22 00:54:53 05:07:18 03:24:09 09:30:48 09:25:51 09:25:51 5

Results for Harry Wiltshire (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wales 2012-09-16 00:44:07 05:33:54 04:08:41 10:35:30 10:33:11 10:33:11 16

Results for Cedric Lassonde (FRA)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Lucy Gossage (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Barcelona 2012-09-30 00:57:30 04:55:47 03:02:57 08:58:43 09:18:50 09:24:02 1
Challenge Barcelona 2011-10-02 00:59:34 05:08:53 03:08:33 09:21:01 09:30:57 09:30:57 4

Results for Bella Bayliss (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
Challenge Henley 2012-09-16 00:56:16 05:25:42 03:12:22 09:40:23 09:48:44 09:40:43 2
IM Switzerland 2012-07-15 00:59:45 05:05:26 03:16:50 09:25:54 09:32:02 09:39:51 2
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 00:56:12 05:47:54 03:14:06 10:06:12 09:47:35 09:40:45 2
IM UK 2010-08-01 00:50:17 05:48:26 03:22:43 10:06:52 10:04:18 09:39:54 2
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 00:52:38 05:41:15 03:34:43 10:16:47 10:08:50 09:37:58 3
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 00:50:01 05:13:32 03:14:34 09:22:34 09:26:44 09:35:28 1
IM Florida 2009-11-07   04:56:20 03:11:08 09:13:52 09:31:03 09:36:08 3
IM UK 2009-08-02 00:59:20 05:26:18 03:01:09 09:34:00 09:35:29 09:36:32 1
IM Austria 2009-07-05 00:54:04 04:49:42 03:00:21 08:50:13 09:05:16 09:36:38 1
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 00:56:00 05:46:37 03:04:06 09:54:58 09:45:01 09:39:20 1
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 00:55:10 05:17:41 03:22:28 09:41:04 09:49:15 09:38:49 5
IM Florida 2008-11-01 00:54:54 04:59:05 03:08:07 09:07:48 09:29:26 09:37:50 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 00:59:02 05:21:46 03:08:31 09:34:08 09:26:30 09:38:37 7
IM UK 2008-09-07 00:53:26 05:33:38 03:16:27 09:49:07 09:45:52 09:39:50 1
IM Austria 2008-07-13 00:53:11 04:48:13 03:04:50 08:51:17 09:08:36 09:39:10 2
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 00:56:17 05:48:14 03:09:20 10:02:30 09:49:59 09:42:42 1
IM South Africa 2008-04-13 00:55:38 05:19:01 03:10:56 09:27:48 09:40:23 09:41:47 1
IM New Zealand 2008-03-01 00:53:11 05:11:00 03:15:34 09:25:33 09:31:34 09:41:59 4
IM Western Australia 2007-12-01 00:55:33 05:05:13 03:13:38 09:14:24 09:39:07 09:43:34 3
IM Florida 2007-11-03 00:55:31 05:00:54 03:11:58 09:13:34 09:33:35 09:44:19 4
IM UK 2007-08-19 00:49:45 05:31:16 03:10:01 09:36:13 09:45:26 09:46:23 1
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 00:58:03 05:09:04 03:13:02 09:20:09 09:30:35 09:46:36 3
IM South Africa 2007-03-18 01:07:58 05:25:04 03:15:37 09:48:41 09:38:18 09:50:49 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 00:58:27 05:14:02 03:11:40 09:28:28 09:41:36 09:55:00 1
IM Brasil 2006-05-28 00:54:43 05:12:19 03:32:13 09:39:14 09:55:18 10:00:43 4
IM Florida 2005-11-05 01:02:21 05:05:02 03:22:04 09:33:09 09:47:35 10:04:00 1
IM UK 2005-08-21 00:56:39 05:55:28 03:25:21 10:21:25 10:21:25 10:21:25 3

Results for Joanna Carritt (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Germany 2013-07-07 00:56:45 05:20:04 03:28:21 09:50:16 10:06:11 10:20:05 15
IM South Africa 2013-04-14 01:06:53 05:13:21 03:51:36 10:16:59 10:23:23 10:21:49 11
IM Western Australia 2012-12-09 01:08:44 05:11:48 03:43:41 10:09:14 10:23:38 10:21:36 8
IM Wales 2012-09-16 00:57:38 05:55:01 03:09:12 10:12:34 10:10:20 10:21:20 3
Challenge Roth 2012-07-08 01:00:23 05:17:54 03:42:52 10:04:53 10:19:25 10:22:56 17
IM UK 2011-07-31 00:55:21 05:53:08 03:05:59 09:59:21 10:08:48 10:23:30 4
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 00:56:35 06:06:02 03:59:33 11:09:59 10:56:57 10:25:33 7
Challenge Wanaka 2011-01-15       10:57:21 10:21:40 10:20:47 3
IM Western Australia 2010-12-05 01:04:42 05:28:49 03:34:09 10:11:13 10:18:06 10:20:38 6
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 01:13:01 05:37:58 03:26:48 10:23:05 10:22:32 10:21:06 35
IM UK 2010-08-01 00:58:16 06:03:05 03:09:28 10:16:22 10:13:46 10:20:48 3
IM France 2010-06-27 01:04:27 05:29:45 03:26:15 10:07:44 10:19:53 10:22:34 8
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 01:02:31 05:46:52 03:26:34 10:24:30 10:16:27 10:23:26 7
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 01:03:57 06:01:55 03:30:45 10:45:32 10:34:44 10:26:38 7
IM Germany 2008-07-06       09:43:19 10:11:06 10:22:23 8
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 01:04:57 05:14:53 03:34:51 09:57:28 10:15:43 10:30:06 8
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 01:07:17 05:57:23 03:45:15 10:59:25 10:44:53 10:44:53 7

Results for Bethan Fowler (GBR)

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wales 2012-09-16 00:57:15 06:19:28 03:27:14 10:52:53 10:50:31 11:14:47 7
IM UK 2012-07-22 01:05:33 06:30:27 04:04:18 11:46:16 11:40:09 11:40:09 5

Results for Amy Forshaw ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Laura Bostock ()

Race Date Swim Bike Run Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
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