Ironman Florida 2014 (Nov 1st) – Predictions

IMFlorida

Updates

  • Andrew Starykowicz was injured before Kona and seems to need a longer break to heal properly. He is no longer on the start list.
  • Tim O’Donnell hasn’t announced his final plans, but he appears to favor Arizona for his fall IM and is off the Florida list.
  • Thomas Gerlach is also focusing on Arizona.
  • Leanda Cave announced that she ended her season with a bad cold after racing 70.3 Miami.
  • Jessie Donavan will be starting at IM Fortaleza.
  • Mike Schifferle, Allan Villanueva and Christoph Bastie are also off the list, as are Kathleen Calkins, Uli Brömme, Carolin Lehrieder, Katya Meyers and Sharon Gallant.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:28:26 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:33:09
2006 Jan Raphael (GER) 08:22:44 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:28:28
2007 Stephan Vuckovic (GER) 08:21:29 Nina Kraft (GER) 09:05:35
2008 Tom Evans (CAN) 08:07:59 Bella Bayliss (GBR) 09:07:48
2009 Kirill Kotshegarov (EST) 08:24:29 Sofie Goos (BEL) 09:08:38
2010 James Cunnama (ZAF) 08:15:59 Jessica Jacobs (USA) 09:07:49
2011 Ronnie Schildknecht (SUI) 07:59:42 Jessica Jacobs (USA) 08:55:10
2012 Andrew Starykowicz (USA) 08:06:17 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:51:35
2013 Victor Del Corral (ESP) 07:53:12 Yvonne Van Vlerken (NED) 08:43:07

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:55:23 04:15:15 02:37:29 07:53:12
2 Andrew Starykowicz USA 00:49:53 04:02:17 02:58:18 07:55:22
3 Filip Ospaly CZE 00:48:06 04:23:53 02:41:17 07:58:44

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 01:00:14 04:35:49 03:01:55 08:43:07
2 Ashley Clifford USA 00:55:21 04:51:20 02:56:35 08:49:03
3 Erika Csomor HUN 01:02:13 04:45:09 03:03:32 08:56:41

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:53:12 Victor Del Corral 2013-11-02
Swim overall 00:44:36 John Flanagan 2011-11-05
Bike overall 04:02:17 Andrew Starykowicz 2013-11-02
Run overall 02:37:29 Victor Del Corral 2013-11-02
Total female 08:43:07 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2013-11-02
Swim female 00:50:26 Tereza Macel 2007-11-03
Bike female 04:35:49 Yvonne Van Vlerken 2013-11-02
Run female 02:53:26 Jessica Jacobs 2011-11-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Florida is 21:44.

Race Adjustments for IM Florida

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 15:03 -00:58 07:51 -01:11 27 15:03 -00:58 07:51 -01:11
2006 13:10 -03:00 05:27 04:34 40 14:07 -01:59 06:39 01:41
2007 22:23 00:01 14:36 05:11 69 16:52 -01:19 09:18 02:51
2008 23:10 -00:38 14:09 04:22 44 18:27 -01:09 10:31 03:14
2009 17:40 -02:03 15:44 04:18 29 18:17 -01:20 11:34 03:27
2010 15:13 -00:07 11:43 04:44 33 17:47 -01:08 11:35 03:39
2011 24:57 -00:25 15:37 04:12 32 18:48 -01:02 12:10 03:44
2012 22:39 -03:01 23:50 00:30 36 19:17 -01:16 13:37 03:20
2013 41:17 -01:33 27:00 09:10 54 21:44 -01:18 15:06 03:59

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Florida has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 25k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Andrew Starykowicz USA 08:11:27 08:41:19 00:49:02 04:11:44 03:05:41 34
2 2 Ben Hoffman USA 08:14:20 08:35:18 00:50:21 04:25:20 02:53:38 21
3 9 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:17:37 08:39:46 00:51:42 04:30:29 02:50:27 (29)
4 3 Timothy O’Donnell USA 08:18:28 08:48:33 00:48:20 04:27:35 02:57:33 52
5 6 Tom Lowe GBR 08:22:00 08:37:47 00:57:24 04:26:57 02:52:39 26
6 4 Pedro Gomes POR 08:23:03 08:53:28 00:51:01 04:29:37 02:57:25 71
7 15 Alberto Casadei ITA 08:31:06 08:59:38 00:49:33 04:35:51 03:00:41 (104)
8 10 Christophe Bastie FRA 08:33:09 08:59:27 00:54:45 04:27:46 03:05:38 102
9 13 Per Bittner GER 08:33:33 08:54:48 00:51:28 04:36:36 03:00:28 79
10 26 Pontus Lindberg SWE 08:35:18 09:10:30 00:55:21 04:33:59 03:00:58 146
11 7 Thomas Gerlach USA 08:40:47 09:04:55 00:55:47 04:30:28 03:09:32 120
12 34 Joerie Vansteelant BEL 08:41:04 09:13:49 01:01:57 04:29:36 03:04:31 (158)
13 29 David Naesvik SWE 08:45:48 09:13:53 00:56:00 04:33:47 03:11:01 158
14 16 Karl-Johan Danielsson SWE 08:48:10 09:20:57 00:50:20 04:34:05 03:18:44 192
15 8 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:48:39 09:11:41 01:02:27 04:38:20 03:02:52 151
16 21 Vinny Johnson USA 08:49:56 09:29:05 00:55:42 04:44:32 03:04:42 224
17 11 Marcel Bischof GER 09:05:20 09:31:53 00:58:45 04:46:43 03:14:52 234
18 14 Raymond Botelho USA 09:06:03 09:47:58 00:55:41 04:39:25 03:25:58 303
19 39 Allan Villanueva MEX 09:21:07 09:48:43 00:56:12 04:53:40 03:26:15 307
20 30 Evgeniy Nikitin RUS 09:24:58 10:19:32 00:52:51 05:06:10 03:20:57 402
21 36 Dantley Young USA 09:25:15 10:18:47 01:04:01 04:52:30 03:23:44 (399)
22 12 Aubrey Aldy USA 09:31:52 10:02:04 01:06:23 05:09:33 03:10:55 360
23 19 Ed Donner USA 09:32:33 10:14:18 01:00:00 04:56:28 03:31:05 389
24 22 Peter Kotland CZE 09:37:56 10:09:35 00:59:05 04:58:16 03:35:36 374
25 24 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:38:12 10:19:06 01:03:16 05:09:00 03:20:57 401
26 18 Vincent Depuiset FRA 09:47:07 10:18:04 01:11:33 05:05:00 03:25:34 (396)
27 35 Robbie Wade IRL 09:48:26 10:31:41 01:00:28 04:57:13 03:45:45 (437)
28 23 Roman Krutina CZE 09:48:44 10:25:45 00:58:49 05:00:00 03:44:56 (423)
29 27 Brent Mcburney USA 10:19:54 10:58:53 01:01:21 04:58:39 04:14:54 (464)
30 37 Jason Smith USA 10:25:29 11:04:48 00:58:44 05:12:15 04:09:30 (469)
31 40 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:14:38 12:11:23 01:12:58 05:31:59 04:24:41 476
5 Lionel Sanders CAN n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Rod De Kanel FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Robert Duncan USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Frederic Limousin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
28 Philip Mosley GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
31 Luan Ortiz Silva BRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Artem Parienko RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Andreas Thissen GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
38 Jacob Rhyner USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 50 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 08:53:40 09:21:20 00:59:21 04:43:59 03:05:20 6
2 52 Leanda Cave GBR 09:04:46 09:28:12 00:51:57 04:54:55 03:12:55 14
3 56 Ashley Clifford USA 09:15:29 09:47:48 00:55:25 05:11:19 03:03:45 48
4 66 Tamara Kozulina UKR 09:19:41 09:46:20 01:03:23 05:01:21 03:09:57 46
5 53 Jessie Donavan USA 09:20:23 09:41:25 01:08:34 04:52:53 03:13:55 33
6 60 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:29:16 09:53:53 00:59:10 05:07:12 03:17:55 58
7 54 Uli Bromme USA 09:33:34 09:59:37 01:04:40 05:03:12 03:20:42 75
8 68 Carolin Lehrieder GER 09:36:27 10:18:49 00:59:14 05:18:08 03:14:05 (107)
9 57 Camilla Lindholm SWE 09:37:51 10:04:35 01:11:27 05:03:48 03:17:36 83
10 55 Anna Cleaver NZL 09:42:46 10:15:57 00:54:22 05:12:50 03:30:35 (104)
11 69 Kristin Lie NOR 09:45:24 10:20:42 01:14:11 05:00:42 03:25:30 110
12 70 Katya Meyers USA 09:51:13 10:24:36 01:09:30 05:04:13 03:32:30 (121)
13 61 Jocelyn Cornman USA 09:55:27 10:32:53 01:02:21 05:24:26 03:23:39 (142)
14 73 Nicole Woysch GER 10:03:07 10:28:08 01:00:23 05:14:32 03:43:13 134
15 65 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 10:06:46 10:37:30 01:03:35 05:20:01 03:38:10 146
16 72 Tami Ritchie USA 10:22:22 10:53:03 00:53:59 05:35:16 03:48:08 156
17 64 Alyssa Godesky USA 10:23:05 10:55:31 01:06:16 05:26:47 03:45:03 158
18 62 Federica Frontini URU 10:30:06 10:56:53 01:10:50 05:22:38 03:51:38 159
19 67 Leslie Lamacchia USA 10:31:15 10:59:45 01:09:53 05:32:03 03:44:20 162
20 71 Carla Moreno BRA 10:34:22 10:54:25 00:57:04 05:53:49 03:38:28 (157)
21 63 Sharon Gallant CAN 10:43:02 11:23:28 01:06:18 05:42:11 03:49:34 (167)
58 Dee Atkins USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
59 Michelle Bozarth USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The race favorites are three athletes that have started in Kona – but with very different results. Ben finished second (and if he starts will probably be focused on validating), Andrew had a DNF (and will be looking to deliver a good result) and TO had a frustrating 3:52 marathon (he might do Arizona instead of Florida). If all of them are not in great shape for Florida, then the race will be hotly contested between three other solid IM racers:

  • Ben Hoffman: 31% (2-1)
  • Andrew Starykowicz: 24% (3-1)
  • Timothy O’Donnell: 20% (4-1)
  • Maxim Kriat: 9% (10-1)
  • Tom Lowe: 7% (13-1)
  • Pedro Gomes: 6% (14-1)

Female Race Participants

As for the men, the top contenders have started in Kona: Yvonne had a DNF, and Leanda finished 18th – both will be looking for a good Florida result:

  • Yvonne Van Vlerken: 64% (1-1)
  • Leanda Cave: 23% (3-1)
  • Ashley Clifford: 4% (23-1)
  • Tamara Kozulina: 4% (26-1)
  • Jessie Donavan: 4% (27-1)
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