Ironman Germany 2015 (July 5th) – Predictions

Update (June 25th): Jessie Donovan said she won’t be starting Frankfurt.

Update (June 30th): Vanessa Raw is also DNS.

IMFrankfurtLogo

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Normann Stadler (GER) 08:20:50 Lisa Bentley (CAN) 09:15:31
2006 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:13:40 Andrea Steinbecher (GER) 09:16:17
2007 Timo Bracht (GER) 08:09:15 Nicole Leder (GER) 09:04:11
2008 Chris McCormack (AUS) 07:59:55 Chrissie Wellington (GBR) 08:51:24
2009 Timo Bracht (GER) 07:59:15 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 08:58:08
2010 Andreas Raelert (GER) 08:05:15 Sandra Wallenhorst (GER) 09:04:27
2011 Faris Al-Sultan (GER) 08:13:50 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 09:12:13
2012 Marino Vanhoenacker (BEL) 08:03:31 Caroline Steffen (SUI) 08:52:33
2013 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 07:59:58 Camilla Pedersen (DEN) 08:56:01
2014 Sebastian Kienle (GER) 07:55:14 Corinne Abraham (GBR) 08:52:40

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Sebastian Kienle GER 00:49:40 04:12:13 02:49:35 07:55:14
2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 00:45:44 04:21:33 02:49:14 08:00:25
3 Jan Frodeno GER 00:45:39 04:33:34 02:43:14 08:07:05

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Corinne Abraham GBR 00:54:23 04:49:06 03:04:38 08:52:40
2 Elizabeth Lyles USA 00:53:40 04:56:53 03:01:14 08:56:36
3 Gina Crawford NZL 00:49:21 04:56:01 03:07:37 08:58:06

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 07:55:14 Sebastian Kienle 2014-07-06
Swim overall 00:42:17 Jan Sibbersen 2004-07-12
Bike overall 04:12:13 Sebastian Kienle 2014-07-06
Run overall 02:42:33 Timo Bracht 2008-07-06
Total female 08:51:24 Chrissie Wellington 2008-07-06
Swim female 00:45:04 Amanda Stevens 2012-07-08
Bike female 04:44:25 Natascha Badmann 2014-07-06
Run female 02:57:13 Kristin Moeller 2013-07-07

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Germany is 12:38.

Race Adjustments for IM Germany

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 -03:26 00:41 04:40 -04:09 5 -03:26 00:41 04:40 -04:09
2006 11:55 n/a n/a n/a 18 04:15 00:41 04:40 -04:09
2007 20:50 01:39 13:38 04:52 22 09:46 01:10 09:09 00:22
2008 23:05 04:26 08:03 07:46 21 13:06 02:16 08:47 02:50
2009 17:11 03:00 12:59 00:04 17 13:55 02:27 09:50 02:08
2010 08:36 00:42 03:53 01:08 29 13:02 02:06 08:39 01:56
2011 07:57 01:24 05:35 00:47 37 12:18 01:59 08:08 01:45
2012 10:48 03:17 04:53 02:04 33 12:07 02:10 07:40 01:48
2013 16:52 02:14 09:08 05:19 62 12:38 02:10 07:51 02:14
2014 12:29 01:56 13:21 01:24 33 12:38 02:09 08:28 02:08

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Germany is a P-4000 race. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$. As a Regional Championship it also offers Automatic Qualifier slots for the male and female winners.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Sebastian Kienle GER 08:01:45 08:12:57 00:48:52 04:17:01 02:50:52 1
2 2 Frederik Van Lierde BEL 08:02:26 08:16:48 00:45:37 04:22:16 02:49:34 2
3 3 Jan Frodeno GER 08:08:40 08:22:29 00:45:08 04:35:02 02:43:30 (7)
4 4 Eneko Llanos ESP 08:08:51 08:22:19 00:46:01 04:26:21 02:51:29 6
5 5 Andreas Raelert GER 08:09:09 08:31:10 00:46:11 04:27:30 02:50:28 20
6 6 Bas Diederen NED 08:14:27 08:27:21 00:45:43 04:30:30 02:53:14 14
7 34 David Dellow AUS 08:16:35 08:31:39 00:45:18 04:30:38 02:55:38 (23)
8 7 Andi Boecherer GER 08:19:54 08:38:00 00:45:46 04:26:40 03:02:27 (43)
9 12 Alessandro Degasperi ITA 08:19:58 08:38:35 00:49:44 04:33:09 02:52:06 (44)
10 16 Tyler Butterfield BMU 08:21:25 08:31:16 00:47:36 04:33:57 02:54:53 21
11 22 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:24:49 08:39:45 00:48:31 04:37:54 02:53:24 (48)
12 13 Marko Albert EST 08:25:06 08:34:26 00:45:01 04:36:46 02:58:20 33
13 36 David Plese SLO 08:26:06 08:39:44 00:50:25 04:33:12 02:57:29 47
14 8 Miquel Blanchart Tinto ESP 08:27:15 08:42:58 00:47:22 04:44:35 02:50:17 57
15 41 Anton Blokhin UKR 08:33:19 08:49:32 00:46:44 04:40:59 03:00:37 83
16 10 Michael Ruenz GER 08:34:25 08:52:22 00:51:04 04:42:01 02:56:19 95
17 14 Simon Billeau FRA 08:40:47 08:53:46 00:51:57 04:33:51 03:09:59 100
18 11 Johannes Moldan GER 08:41:00 09:04:11 00:48:41 04:31:41 03:15:37 (145)
19 9 Carlos Lopez Diaz ESP 08:41:02 09:07:11 00:45:39 04:47:28 03:02:55 (154)
20 27 Mark Oude Bennink NED 08:51:13 09:09:16 00:46:53 04:43:55 03:15:25 168
21 38 Ivan Risti ITA 08:58:17 09:17:14 00:46:24 04:54:12 03:12:41 (198)
22 40 Ivan Jezko SVK 09:02:54 09:31:54 00:56:20 04:51:58 03:09:36 265
23 47 Lewis Elliot USA 09:10:40 09:37:27 00:52:11 04:45:53 03:27:36 (289)
24 29 Lukas Polan CZE 09:22:57 09:49:53 01:01:06 04:54:55 03:21:56 330
25 23 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 09:23:09 10:09:28 00:58:34 05:10:28 03:09:06 398
26 37 Alfred Rahm GER 09:23:25 09:53:53 01:01:48 04:56:50 03:19:47 350
27 42 Juha Laitinen FIN 09:26:44 09:56:15 01:02:10 05:06:02 03:13:32 (360)
28 43 David Jilek CZE 09:31:29 09:52:19 00:57:07 04:56:55 03:32:27 (342)
29 21 Lachlan Kerin AUS 09:32:50 10:04:19 00:48:27 04:54:12 03:45:11 (382)
30 30 Mario Radevic GER 09:43:20 10:09:18 00:59:56 05:03:25 03:35:00 (397)
31 44 Fabio Carvalho BRA 09:47:18 10:10:41 00:45:32 05:13:57 03:42:49 402
32 46 Maksim Kalinin RUS 10:16:57 10:41:57 01:09:23 05:21:47 03:40:47 (461)
33 35 Marek Nemcik SVK 11:24:02 12:10:03 01:08:17 05:39:32 04:31:13 474
15 Thomas Bosch GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
17 Emanuele Ciotti ITA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
18 Martijn Dekker NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
19 Martin Droell GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
20 Thomas Kaiser GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
24 Wouter Monchy BEL n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
25 Young Hwan Oh KOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Gilian Oriet SUI n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
31 Evgenii Rulevskii RUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
32 Evert Scheltinga NED n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Andreas Thissen GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
39 Frederic Limousin FRA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
45 Mathias Nagel GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

From a KPR perspective, Sebastian Kienle and Jan Frodeno still have to finish their validation race, but are otherwise already safe for Kona. Frederik Van Lierde has already validated by winning IM South Africa, but he’ll want to show the Germans he can still win in the big races.

Because Germany is a P-4000 race, a lot of athletes are within 2.000 (a Top 5) or even 3.000 points (Top 3), there are more than 10 athletes that could potentially cross the projected cutoff of 3.800 points. Eneko Llanos (3.910), Miquel Tinto (3.700) and Ty Butterfield (3.630) are already close and should be fine with just a few more points.

For Bas Diederen (2.790), Marko ALbert (2.160), Alessandro Degasperi (2.000), Andi Boecherer (1.640), Simon Billeau (1.570) and Andreas Raelert (1.560) it’ll be a lot harder, they need a good result in Frankfurt to get the points they need.

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 51 Caroline Steffen SUI 08:53:46 09:10:21 00:49:51 04:50:14 03:08:41 4
2 52 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:57:47 09:06:26 00:50:05 04:50:58 03:11:45 2
3 53 Julia Gajer GER 09:07:22 09:17:22 00:51:35 05:05:05 03:05:42 9
4 55 Kristin Moeller GER 09:10:49 09:33:48 01:00:01 05:05:03 03:00:46 32
5 56 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:14:17 09:24:48 00:50:04 05:01:30 03:17:43 20
6 54 Tine Deckers BEL 09:14:31 09:28:06 00:56:40 05:00:07 03:12:44 22
7 66 Sonja Tajsich GER 09:16:48 09:32:50 00:58:59 05:00:07 03:12:42 31
8 57 Ruth Brennan-Morrey USA 09:20:15 09:45:12 00:59:22 05:12:47 03:03:07 (50)
9 63 Mirjam Weerd NED 09:21:01 09:41:33 00:51:51 04:58:02 03:26:08 (46)
10 68 Lisa Roberts USA 09:24:31 09:41:40 01:02:38 05:08:52 03:08:00 46
11 67 Astrid Ganzow GER 09:27:46 09:49:43 00:56:14 05:02:10 03:24:22 61
12 65 Jessie Donavan USA 09:29:17 09:38:56 01:04:45 05:01:34 03:17:58 42
13 58 Katharina Grohmann GER 09:50:53 10:10:14 01:10:30 05:15:00 03:20:23 108
14 60 Tine Holst DEN 09:52:28 10:10:30 01:03:53 05:13:54 03:29:41 109
15 61 Annett Kamenz GER 09:54:30 10:27:34 01:00:03 05:20:10 03:29:17 (148)
16 59 Helena Herrero Gomez ESP 09:58:59 10:22:25 00:57:47 05:33:49 03:22:23 (135)
17 64 Nicole Woysch GER 10:06:51 10:28:48 00:55:37 05:16:28 03:49:46 148
62 Vanessa Raw GBR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Similar to the men, there are athletes that are already safe (Carolin Steffen) or just need to finish (Daniela Ryf, Julia Gajer) in order to secure a Kona slot. (To have a longer look at Julia Gajer, check out my profile on her.)

As the women’s cutoff is projected to be 5.100 points, Michelle Vesterby (3.575), Tine Deckers (3.325) or Ruth Brennan-Morrey (3.235) need a Top 5 result for a slot. Astrid Ganzow (2.520), Jessie Donavan (2.405) or Kristin Möller (1.805) need at least a podium finish. All the others (including Sonja Tajsich, 1.105) have to look for the Automatic Qualifier slot as the winner if they want to qualify for Kona in Frankfurt.

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

The race will be mainly a rematch from last year between Sebastian and Frederik. I’m sure Jan would love to spoil their party – his two IMs last year (Frankfurt and Kona) showed the amazing potential he has. In addition there are a couple of other well known names that could make the race even more exciting:

  • Sebastian Kienle: 38% (2-1)
  • Frederik Van Lierde: 38% (2-1)
  • Andreas Raelert: 6% (15-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 5% (20-1)
  • Jan Frodeno: 4% (23-1)
  • David Dellow: 4% (23-1)

Female Race Participants

Based on the pure numbers, Caroline is the slight favorite. But she wasn’t able to show her full strength in her last races, while Daniela is going from one good race to the next. Behind these two Swiss, a couple of other European athletes would like to become European Champion: Julia was 6th in Kona last year and would love to be in the mix in Frankfurt. Tine, Kristin, Sonja and Michelle are probably more focused on placing well in order to qualify for Kona:

  • Caroline Steffen: 48% (1-1)
  • Daniela Ryf: 34% (2-1)
  • Tine Deckers: 7% (13-1)
  • Julia Gajer: 4% (26-1)
  • Kristin Moeller: 3% (35-1)
  • Sonja Tajsich: 2% (44-1)
  • Michelle Vesterby: 2% (60-1)
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