Ironman Hawaii 2016 – Female Pro Predictions

This is an excerpt of the data in my 2016 Kona Rating Report. (Find out more in this info post, you can download the report here).

Female Race Participants

Here are my predictions for the female race in Kona. Similar to the men’s predictions, please don’t focus too much on the times in the table but the differences between the athletes. Again I expect very close racing especially for the last spots in the Top 10.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Rating Swim Bike Run
1 101 Daniela Ryf SUI 08:55:34 08:55:01 00:55:04 04:50:25 03:05:05
2 111 Mirinda Carfrae AUS 09:02:35 08:59:59 00:59:13 05:02:50 02:55:32
3 108 Jodie Swallow GBR 09:14:46 09:12:46 00:52:52 04:59:16 03:17:39
4 130 Yvonne Van Vlerken NED 09:19:13 09:16:26 01:02:18 04:58:38 03:13:17
5 104 Heather Jackson USA 09:19:40 09:18:38 01:03:41 05:03:37 03:07:22
6 106 Julia Gajer GER 09:19:55 09:17:14 00:57:44 05:07:52 03:09:19
7 105 Lucy Gossage GBR 09:21:48 09:16:53 01:03:07 05:01:26 03:12:15
8 116 Michelle Vesterby DEN 09:22:00 09:23:10 00:55:47 05:04:08 03:17:05
9 138 Carrie Lester AUS 09:22:14 09:25:57 00:58:12 05:04:46 03:14:16
10 102 Susie Cheetham GBR 09:22:19 09:16:19 00:58:11 05:14:21 03:04:47
11 127 Linsey Corbin USA 09:22:58 09:19:23 01:02:07 05:09:37 03:06:14
12 113 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:24:03 09:18:08 00:55:06 05:02:00 03:21:57
13 110 Camilla Pedersen DEN 09:24:11 09:18:07 00:55:48 05:03:11 03:20:12
14 120 Meredith Kessler USA 09:24:20 09:17:50 00:53:53 05:03:56 03:21:31
15 121 Melissa Hauschildt AUS 09:24:27 09:23:29 01:01:14 05:07:32 03:10:40
16 112 Leanda Cave GBR 09:24:48 09:25:21 00:54:55 05:07:45 03:17:09
17 103 Sarah Piampiano USA 09:26:02 09:31:37 01:08:16 05:04:45 03:08:01
18 109 Kaisa Lehtonen FIN 09:26:20 09:27:57 00:59:25 05:11:26 03:10:28
19 115 Anja Beranek GER 09:26:28 09:19:29 00:56:15 04:59:01 03:26:11
20 119 Elizabeth Lyles USA 09:27:09 09:26:12 01:00:24 05:12:22 03:09:23
21 139 Jodie Robertson USA 09:28:28 09:28:36 01:11:50 05:04:06 03:07:33
22 118 Asa Lundstroem SWE 09:30:03 09:31:21 01:04:41 05:06:15 03:14:06
23 117 Annabel Luxford AUS 09:31:51 09:26:22 00:55:55 05:03:34 03:27:22
24 143 Michaela Herlbauer AUT 09:32:57 09:33:18 01:00:35 05:13:18 03:14:04
25 128 Tine Deckers BEL 09:33:02 09:28:53 01:02:40 05:02:15 03:23:07
26 125 Heather Wurtele CAN 09:33:27 09:29:44 00:58:41 05:06:32 03:23:15
27 114 Lisa Roberts USA 09:38:17 09:38:04 01:10:10 05:15:39 03:07:28
28 144 Natascha Badmann SUI 09:39:20 09:36:16 01:06:11 05:05:12 03:22:58
29 122 Sarah Crowley AUS 09:39:30 09:38:36 01:01:54 05:08:44 03:23:53
30 126 Mareen Hufe GER 09:39:34 09:35:18 01:05:14 05:03:15 03:26:05
31 129 Daniela Saemmler GER 09:41:54 09:38:28 01:00:35 05:12:01 03:24:18
32 132 Kristin Moeller GER 09:42:25 09:38:18 01:09:33 05:21:34 03:06:17
33 123 Katja Konschak GER 09:46:17 09:54:16 00:57:58 05:25:34 03:17:46
34 141 Natascha Schmitt GER 09:47:34 09:52:58 00:58:45 05:14:27 03:29:22
35 135 Ariane Monticeli BRA 09:47:47 09:43:49 01:06:18 05:21:39 03:14:50
36 107 Gurutze Frades Larralde ESP 09:48:17 09:51:50 01:06:44 05:23:20 03:13:13
37 124 Alicia Kaye USA 09:50:07 09:52:22 00:56:37 05:16:46 03:31:44
38 142 Laurel Wassner USA 09:50:23 09:46:47 00:59:13 05:25:46 03:20:24
39 137 Alexandra Tondeur BEL 09:52:01 09:52:32 01:06:30 05:22:48 03:17:44
40 136 Dimity-Lee Duke AUS 09:53:51 09:45:33 01:04:51 05:20:13 03:23:47
41 133 Verena Walter GER 09:54:44 09:57:27 01:04:54 05:15:53 03:28:58
42 134 Saleta Castro Nogueira ESP 09:56:15 10:02:44 01:00:34 05:30:52 03:19:49
43 140 Bianca Steurer AUT 09:57:18 09:54:25 01:02:41 05:24:51 03:24:46
44 131 Tine Holst DEN 10:01:03 10:02:35 01:09:13 05:17:10 03:29:39

Heatmap

Here’s the heat map for the women’s race – a darker red corresponding to faster athletes in the swim, bike, run and overall.

womenpoints_large

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