Ironman Los Cabos 2014 (March 30th) – Predictions

Update (March 25th): Both Jennie Hansen and Celine Schaerer have announced that they won’t start.

Update (March 26th): As per Thomas Gerlach, Bryan Rhodes and Jonathan Shearon are not starting. I’m trying to get confirmation from WTC.

Please let me know your top picks on IM-Predictions! We want to put up a page for most of the Ironman-distance races leading up to Kona, and will have some great prizes for the best players.

Previous Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Timo Bracht GER 00:53:23 04:37:34 02:51:39 08:26:48
2 Trevor Delsaut FRA 00:57:43 04:42:25 02:48:02 08:33:26
3 Jozsef Major HUN 00:58:42 04:41:03 02:48:30 08:33:57

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Erika Csomor HUN 09:35:34
2 Michelle Vesterby DEN 00:55:12 05:22:36 03:14:18 09:36:31
3 Lisa Ribes USA 01:04:23 05:21:41 03:07:15 09:38:35

Course Records

Last year was the first time that Los Cabos hosted an Ironman.

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:26:48 Timo Bracht 2013-03-17
Swim overall 00:49:25 Andres Castillo 2013-03-17
Bike overall 04:37:34 Timo Bracht 2013-03-17
Run overall 02:48:02 Trevor Delsaut 2013-03-17
Total female 09:35:34 Erika Csomor 2013-03-17
Swim female 00:55:12 Michelle Vesterby 2013-03-17
Bike female 05:09:23 Mareen Hufe 2013-03-17
Run female 03:07:15 Lisa Ribes 2013-03-17

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Los Cabos is -04:28. This is just based on the 2013 race where a lot of athletes were surprised by the tough bike course. Apparently, there have been changes to the bike course, it is now three laps with less hills.

Race Adjustments for IM Los Cabos

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2013 -04:28 -02:22 -03:04 01:57 31 -04:28 -02:22 -03:04 01:57

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Los Cabos has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75k$.

Male Race Participants

Timo Bracht is not back to defend his 2013 title, so last year’s 2nd place finisher Trevor Delsaut gets to wear bib #1. However, he is not my favorite to win the race, instead I have Daniel Fontana and TJ Tollakson (with very similar capabilities, the difference could be Daniel’s better run). Behind these two, there are more than ten athletes of a similar overall capability. One athlete that should be close to the front for most of the day is Jan Van Berkel – he’s a great swimmer, has a decent bike, and unless he explodes on the run (as he did last summer when he was leading in Switzerland), he may even be able to win the race.

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 2 Daniel Fontana ITA 08:41:34 08:37:17 00:48:32 04:43:22 03:00:04 31
2 4 TJ Tollakson USA 08:43:21 08:39:03 00:48:53 04:39:22 03:05:40 40
3 13 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:54:02 08:49:39 00:47:50 04:50:04 03:05:03 75
4 28 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:56:08 08:51:44 00:53:08 04:56:32 02:57:39 (86)
5 18 Swen Sundberg GER 08:56:31 08:52:07 00:52:19 04:45:20 03:10:18 87
6 3 Matthew Russell USA 08:59:21 08:54:55 01:01:32 04:47:07 02:58:53 101
7 1 Trevor Delsaut FRA 09:01:35 08:57:08 00:55:15 04:54:24 03:01:38 107
8 9 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:01:37 08:57:10 00:54:50 04:52:50 03:03:02 109
9 6 Patrick Evoe USA 09:02:12 08:57:45 00:55:36 04:46:36 03:08:31 115
10 10 Jan Van Berkel SUI 09:02:56 08:58:28 00:47:18 04:45:36 03:15:11 (121)
11 24 Jonathan Shearon USA 09:05:21 09:00:52 00:53:35 04:46:19 03:14:41 134
12 21 Todd Skipworth AUS 09:06:54 09:02:24 00:45:53 04:40:03 03:24:39 (140)
13 11 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:07:43 09:03:13 01:00:17 04:51:08 03:05:22 143
14 14 Andres Castillo COL 09:09:53 09:05:22 00:47:47 04:53:49 03:20:00 148
15 15 Dan Mcintosh USA 09:10:46 09:06:14 00:52:03 04:52:55 03:10:13 152
16 12 Derek Garcia USA 09:13:04 09:08:31 00:54:04 04:47:24 03:18:11 161
17 17 Domenico Passuello ITA 09:14:43 09:10:10 00:55:23 04:51:13 03:10:27 (167)
18 25 Scott Defilippis USA 09:22:16 09:17:39 00:57:11 05:04:58 03:06:16 191
19 23 Allan Villanueva MEX 09:23:21 09:18:43 00:53:40 04:58:11 03:21:47 (195)
20 7 Greg Close USA 09:26:55 09:22:16 00:57:30 05:01:22 03:10:58 (201)
21 5 Bryan Rhodes NZL 09:27:30 09:22:50 00:48:51 05:02:29 03:27:08 204
22 22 Douglas MacLean USA 09:27:42 09:23:02 01:00:17 05:03:51 03:09:31 205
23 29 Martin Lamontagne Lacasse CAN 09:50:41 09:45:50 00:55:05 05:14:38 03:26:21 288
24 19 Jim Lubinski USA 09:54:17 09:49:24 01:03:21 05:15:03 03:26:35 302
25 26 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:12:47 10:07:45 00:51:40 05:18:41 03:48:54 355
26 20 Josef Svoboda CZE 12:01:45 11:55:49 01:11:57 05:56:39 04:28:48 419
27 James Duff USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
16 Brent Mcburney USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
8 Matthew Curbeau USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Linsey Corbin is the obvious choice to win the race. She was injured for much of 2013, managed to get in race form just in time for Kona, then took some time off to properly heal and also switched her training environment (moving to Bend, Orgeon). However, I expect Celine Schaerer to give Linsey a big challenge: She’s the better swimmer than Linsey, probably bikes on the same level, so it should come down to the run to decide the race. (Unfortunately, Celine won’t be able to start.) Other notable athletes in the field include Jennie Hansen (recent winner of IM Lake Placid), Ashley Clifford (2nd at IM Florida with a sub-9h time), and super-fish Haley Chura (first out of the water in Kona).

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating Rank
1 35 Linsey Corbin USA 09:28:52 09:24:12 00:57:24 05:12:05 03:09:02 8
2 48 Celine Schaerer SUI 09:39:25 09:34:39 00:47:39 05:09:47 03:18:38 (26)
3 55 Jennie Hansen USA 09:43:37 09:38:49 01:04:26 05:15:37 03:12:04 30
4 54 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:45:22 09:40:33 00:57:15 05:17:22 03:19:48 34
5 41 Ashley Clifford USA 09:45:45 09:40:56 00:53:53 05:29:46 03:12:05 37
6 52 Mackenzie Madison USA 09:48:19 09:43:29 01:02:00 05:19:38 03:13:42 43
7 37 Lisa Ribes USA 09:49:16 09:44:26 01:04:27 05:19:37 03:14:33 46
8 43 Haley Chura USA 09:53:32 09:48:39 00:49:06 05:23:52 03:30:22 55
9 44 Katy Blakemore USA 09:54:55 09:50:02 00:52:57 05:27:50 03:17:00 (58)
10 36 Carrie Lester AUS 09:55:29 09:50:35 00:56:34 05:20:06 03:27:09 60
11 38 Beth Shutt USA 10:05:53 10:00:54 01:00:23 05:25:43 03:26:44 85
12 46 Sara Gross CAN 10:06:19 10:01:20 00:56:44 05:39:57 03:20:38 86
13 45 Karen Thibodeau CAN 10:09:03 10:04:03 00:54:28 05:24:36 03:22:56 (92)
14 56 Brooke Brown CAN 10:12:09 10:07:07 01:05:12 05:21:51 03:20:23 (93)
15 49 Olesya Prystayko UKR 10:16:26 10:11:22 01:00:03 05:27:46 03:38:04 99
16 50 Saleta Castro ESP 10:19:34 10:14:29 00:55:44 05:29:45 03:40:57 105
17 39 Katharina Grohmann GER 10:20:23 10:15:17 01:14:15 05:29:13 03:17:45 108
18 53 Anne Basso FRA 10:22:57 10:17:50 00:58:39 05:34:02 03:43:03 114
19 47 Molly Roohi USA 10:37:16 10:32:02 01:06:29 05:31:39 03:27:55 (129)
20 51 Caroline Gregory USA 10:37:26 10:32:12 00:57:51 05:45:21 03:43:02 129
21 42 Kristina Wiegand GER 11:32:05 11:26:24 01:07:25 06:21:46 04:06:53 (147)
40 Alyssa Godesky USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

  • TJ Tollakson: 24% (3-1)
  • Daniel Fontana: 21% (4-1)
  • Trevor Delsaut: 20% (4-1)
  • Ezequiel Morales: 11% (8-1)
  • Stephen Bayliss: 10% (9-1)
  • Scott Defilippis: 3% (30-1)
  • Swen Sundberg: 3% (31-1)
  • Patrick Evoe: 2% (40-1)
  • Jan Van Berkel: 2% (58-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 2% (60-1)

Female Race Participants

  • Linsey Corbin: 63% (1-1)
  • Celine Schaerer: 10% (9-1)
  • Jennie Hansen: 7% (13-1)
  • Ashley Clifford: 5% (20-1)
  • Carrie Lester: 4% (25-1)
  • Lisa Ribes: 4% (25-1)
  • Sara Gross: 3% (32-1)
  • Mackenzie Madison: 2% (51-1)
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