Ironman New Zealand 2015 (March 7th) – Predictions

IMNZPrevious Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2005 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:20:15 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:30:14
2007 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:26:33 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:20:02
2008 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:24:49 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:16:00
2009 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:18:05 Gina Crawford (NZL) 09:18:26
2010 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:21:52 Joanna Lawn (NZL) 09:14:35
2011 Cameron Brown (NZL) 08:31:07 Samantha Warriner (NZL) 09:28:24
2013 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:15:35 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:17:10
2014 Marko Albert (EST) 08:17:33 Meredith Kessler (USA) 09:08:46

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Marko Albert EST 00:46:10 04:36:42 02:50:05 08:17:33
2 Cameron Brown NZL 00:48:25 04:40:39 02:47:45 08:21:55
3 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 00:46:16 04:43:12 02:54:55 08:28:56

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Meredith Kessler USA 00:46:47 05:08:30 03:08:06 09:08:46
2 Gina Crawford NZL 00:51:20 05:10:05 03:08:06 09:15:53
3 Candice Hammond NZL 00:59:25 05:15:01 03:10:44 09:30:04

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:15:35 Bevan Docherty 2013-03-02
Swim overall 00:44:47 Brent Foster 2004-03-06
Bike overall 04:35:06 Bevan Docherty 2013-03-02
Run overall 02:43:10 Cameron Brown 2009-03-07
Total female 09:08:46 Meredith Kessler 2014-03-01
Swim female 00:46:30 Monica Byrn 2005-05-03
Bike female 05:01:17 Emi Shiono 2008-03-01
Run female 03:01:06 Mirinda Carfrae 2011-03-05

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM New Zealand is 04:06.

Race Adjustments for IM New Zealand

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Athletes Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2005 n/a n/a n/a n/a 4 n/a n/a n/a n/a
2007 04:39 00:53 00:10 04:50 17 04:39 00:53 00:10 04:50
2008 09:12 01:34 02:55 04:19 31 06:55 01:13 01:32 04:35
2009 07:35 00:00 03:43 03:02 27 07:09 00:49 02:16 04:04
2010 05:55 01:02 04:26 03:32 17 06:50 00:52 02:48 03:56
2011 -02:42 00:28 00:36 -01:05 20 04:56 00:47 02:22 02:56
2013 00:32 00:41 03:55 01:27 17 04:12 00:46 02:37 02:41
2014 03:31 01:02 -00:15 03:35 28 04:06 00:49 02:13 02:49

KPR points and Prize Money

IM New Zealand has 2000 KPR points for the winner. It has a total prize purse of 75 k$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 1 Cameron Brown NZL 08:22:29 08:27:05 00:49:34 04:38:56 02:48:59 19
2 2 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 08:29:10 08:34:04 00:46:34 04:42:03 02:55:33 (35)
3 6 Dylan McNeice NZL 08:46:40 08:46:46 00:44:46 04:50:25 03:06:30 89
4 3 Joel Jameson GBR 08:49:18 08:52:22 00:56:33 04:51:21 02:56:24 121
5 4 Nick Baldwin SEY 08:50:54 08:50:22 00:53:14 04:47:19 03:05:20 107
6 30 Alex Reithmeier AUS 08:51:16 08:50:02 00:47:48 04:49:10 03:09:19 (105)
7 24 Luke Martin AUS 08:54:20 08:53:13 00:52:06 04:54:56 03:02:17 (124)
8 29 Carl Read NZL 08:55:09 08:54:59 00:52:31 04:57:58 02:59:40 128
9 10 Todd Skipworth AUS 08:56:12 08:54:57 00:45:46 04:41:22 03:24:04 (128)
10 9 Simon Cochrane NZL 08:59:14 09:04:51 00:51:33 04:58:03 03:04:38 184
11 5 Mike Schifferle SUI 09:02:19 09:04:24 01:00:25 04:51:22 03:05:32 179
12 21 Johan Borg AUS 09:09:14 09:19:30 00:54:53 04:57:41 03:11:40 (233)
13 7 Jose Jeuland FRA 09:09:42 09:14:53 00:52:45 05:04:43 03:07:14 211
14 32 Shanon Stallard NZL 09:13:29 09:20:56 00:55:08 05:04:47 03:08:34 240
15 31 Chris Sanson NZL 09:16:33 09:12:11 00:54:18 05:05:47 03:11:28 201
16 25 Daiki Masuda JPN 09:16:52 09:48:07 00:54:52 05:01:49 03:15:12 349
17 22 James Bowstead NZL 09:18:11 09:34:19 00:52:48 04:47:40 03:32:43 (293)
18 34 Marcus Hultgren SWE 09:48:51 09:31:24 00:58:29 05:03:07 03:42:15 (287)
19 23 James Cotter USA 10:05:14 10:06:50 00:47:52 05:05:03 04:07:19 (410)
8 Andrew Yoder USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
26 Graham O’Grady NZL unrated unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
27 Young Hwan Oh KOR n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
33 Ricky Swindale AUS n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Overall
1 11 Meredith Kessler USA 09:08:31 09:21:17 00:48:15 05:03:02 03:12:14 15
2 12 Gina Crawford NZL 09:14:52 09:22:45 00:51:05 05:10:29 03:08:18 16
3 14 Mareen Hufe GER 09:31:41 09:36:43 00:59:15 05:05:11 03:22:15 42
4 15 Stephanie Jones USA 09:41:29 09:51:03 01:04:53 05:16:16 03:15:20 (82)
5 13 Melanie Burke NZL 09:42:08 09:49:20 01:05:36 05:14:23 03:17:08 77
6 17 Erin Furness NZL 10:05:40 10:11:50 01:00:44 05:31:59 03:27:57 130
7 16 Conny Dauben GER 10:52:52 10:57:22 01:07:18 05:40:58 03:59:36 172
18 Jocelyn Mccauley USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

Cam Brown is the clear favorite for another New Zealand title. Terns Bozzone has been working on his IM skills for a while but hasn’t had a break-through race just yet. Maybe this is the year he can finally nail an Ironman race? Dylan McNeice will probably not be on top of his game after winning IM Wanaka just two weeks before but you never know how these doubles turn out:

  • Cameron Brown: 64% (1-1)
  • Terenzo Bozzone: 26% (3-1)
  • Dylan McNeice: 4% (23-1)

Female Race Participants

Meredith Kessler is the clear female favorite. If nothing goes wrong for „MBK“, she should win her fourth New Zealand title in a row. Her main contender, Gina Crawford, is also just coming off another IM-distance race – winning Challenge Wanaka. Maybe Mareen Hufe can deliver another great performance on the „fifth continent“ after her great second place at Ironman Western Australia in early December.

  • Meredith Kessler: 59% (1-1)
  • Gina Crawford: 29% (2-1)
  • Mareen Hufe: 9% (10-1)
  • Stephanie Jones: 2% (51-1)

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

  1. TriNews: Dubai Drama, Ironman vs. Challenge Prize Purses, and More | Endurance Planet - March 4, 2015

    […] Thorsten’s predictions […]

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