Ironman Texas 2016 (May 14th) – Predictions

IMTexasLogoUpdate May 8th: Sarah Piampiano announced that she has withdrawn from the race, “teetering on the edge [of injury] and wanting to make sure I stay on the healthy side”. Ray Botelho also won’t be starting.

Update May 11th: Amanda Stevens is another DNS. She posted pictures with her right foot in a cast boot. Rachel Jastrebsky also won’t be able to race.

Previous Winners

Year Male Winner Time Female Winner Time
2011 Eneko Llanos (ESP) 08:08:20 Catriona Morrison (GBR) 08:57:51
2012 Jordan Rapp (USA) 08:10:44 Mary Beth Ellis (USA) 08:54:58
2013 Paul Amey (GBR) 08:25:06 Rachel Joyce (GBR) 08:49:14
2014 Bevan Docherty (NZL) 08:09:37 Kelly Williamson (USA) 08:54:42
2015 Matt Hanson (USA) 08:07:03 Angela Naeth (CAN) 08:55:19

An interesting side note: So far no athlete has been able to win twice in Texas.

Last Year’s TOP 3

Male Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Matt Hanson USA 00:55:02 04:21:25 02:45:47 08:07:03
2 Joe Skipper GBR 00:55:09 04:10:07 03:04:35 08:16:26
3 Ronnie Schildknecht SUI 00:55:07 04:24:27 02:55:54 08:21:03

Female Race Results

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Time
1 Angela Naeth CAN 00:59:35 04:41:38 03:09:13 08:55:19
2 Leanda Cave GBR 00:53:13 04:47:43 03:12:02 08:58:12
3 Rachel Joyce GBR 00:53:08 04:52:35 03:14:00 09:05:02

Course Records

Leg Gender Record Athlete Date
Total overall 08:07:03 Matt Hanson 2015-05-16
Swim overall 00:46:20 John Flanagan 2011-05-21
Bike overall 04:10:07 Joe Skipper 2015-05-16
Run overall 02:41:38 Matt Hanson 2014-05-17
Total female 08:49:14 Rachel Joyce 2013-05-18
Swim female 00:51:49 Kelly Williamson 2014-05-17
Bike female 04:40:39 Corinne Abraham 2015-05-16
Run female 02:51:46 Caitlin Snow 2012-05-19

Course Rating

The Course Rating for IM Texas is 11:20.

Race Adjustments for IM Texas

Year Adjustment Swim Adj. Bike Adj. Run Adj. # of Finishers Rating Swim Rating Bike Rating Run Rating
2011 10:52 -02:44 18:09 -01:41 41 10:52 -02:44 18:09 -01:41
2012 12:54 -01:22 15:12 02:45 27 11:53 -02:03 16:40 00:32
2013 07:13 -01:43 15:55 02:23 30 of 46 10:20 -01:56 16:25 01:09
2014 16:45 00:36 16:05 03:51 44 of 55 11:56 -01:18 16:20 01:50
2015 08:56 -01:52 18:23 -03:46 33 of 52 11:20 -01:25 16:45 00:43

Course Changes for 2016

The biggest thing on athlete’s minds is likely the shortened bike course. There is a big construction project on the old bike course and getting sign-off on a new course turned out to be very complicated. For a long time there was no approved bike course and in the absence of any official information rumors spread of the whole race getting cancelled. In addition some strong rain caused flooding in The Woodlands area. This ultimately resulted in a shortened bike course (officially 94 miles instead of 112 miles or roughly 150 km instead of 180) that is also quite complicated. Just looking at the course map can make your head spin. Kona is a very simple bike course, but there are still athletes that make a wrong turn and cut parts of the course (for an example check out my story on Shiao-Yu Li’s Kona in 2015). I just hope that the volunteers help to ensure that all athletes follow the same course. Hopefully the impact of the course on the race results will be limited to a change in race dynamics.

The shortened bike course will result in about 40 to 50 minutes quicker finish times for the Pros. T his will allow athletes to go a bit harder than what would be normal for an Ironman. But of course this is hard to calculate before the race, and overpaying carries the risk of blowing up on the run, especially if things get hot and humid on the run. A well-paced bike ride will also allow for a slightly quicker run than a typical IM, and to win the race you’ll probably have to run sub-2:50 (men) and sub-3 hours for the women in addition to a fast bike. It will be critical to get the pacing right – and no one will have any experience racing these exact distances.

If just linearly scaling the times for the shortened bike (as I have done for my predictions), the impact won’t be very large: The section that is “missing” correspond to roughly three minutes between a fast biker such as Andy Starykowicz and a faster runner (also slower biker compared to Andy) such as Matt Hanson (similar on the female side, comparing Sarah Piampiano and Kelly Williamson). Of course three minutes won’t make a huge difference in the final results, but it can mean the difference between Matt and Kelly running themselves on the podium or fighting for the win.

KPR points and Prize Money

IM Texas is a P-4000 race and has automatic Kona qualifier slots for the male and female winners. It has a total prize purse of 150.000 US$.

Male Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 6 Nils Frommhold GER 07:30:09 08:20:39 00:49:35 03:35:24 03:00:10 78% +0% -22% (7) 6
2 1 Matt Hanson USA 07:31:37 08:39:22 00:55:04 03:45:48 02:45:45 29% +39% -31% (9) 53
3 3 Eneko Llanos ESP 07:32:26 08:23:08 00:49:45 03:38:15 02:59:26 90% +0% -10% (24) 9
4 18 Clemente Alonso McKernan ESP 07:32:47 08:30:54 00:49:17 03:44:35 02:53:54 56% +14% -31% (13) (23)
5 2 Jordan Rapp USA 07:34:25 08:28:09 00:53:33 03:36:58 02:58:54 72% +10% -18% (18) 18
6 14 Callum Millward NZL 07:35:31 08:26:07 00:50:12 03:45:32 02:54:47 74% +0% -26% (4) 14
7 10 Michael Weiss AUT 07:37:30 08:32:14 00:56:15 03:36:16 02:59:59 89% +11% -0% (13) 28
8 13 Jeff Symonds CAN 07:38:59 08:31:58 00:52:03 03:52:35 02:49:21 79% +0% -21% (7) 26
9 16 Richie Cunningham AUS 07:41:31 08:47:05 00:51:01 03:42:31 03:02:59 50% +0% -50% (3) (76)
10 4 Terenzo Bozzone NZL 07:42:04 08:32:50 00:49:56 03:45:59 03:01:09 81% +1% -18% (10) 30
11 7 Matthew Russell USA 07:42:57 08:45:54 00:58:50 03:43:16 02:55:51 52% +33% -15% (37) 73
12 8 Andrew Starykowicz USA 07:43:49 08:32:48 00:50:51 03:31:17 03:16:42 60% +0% -40% (7) 29
13 5 Justin Daerr USA 07:43:53 08:50:15 00:54:17 03:46:28 02:58:07 56% +13% -31% (28) 85
14 19 Pedro Gomes POR 07:44:02 08:41:40 00:53:09 03:48:29 02:57:24 59% +6% -35% (21) 58
15 36 Jeremy Jurkiewicz FRA 07:46:06 08:44:48 00:49:09 03:51:25 03:00:32 62% +0% -38% (11) 66
16 29 Marc Duelsen GER 07:46:21 08:46:17 00:54:20 03:44:49 03:02:12 60% +0% -40% (6) (74)
17 42 Eric Limkemann USA 07:46:23 08:43:39 00:51:17 03:43:57 03:06:09 50% +32% -18% (4) 63
18 23 Barrett Brandon USA 07:47:06 08:45:06 00:49:18 03:51:09 03:01:40 60% +0% -40% (5) 68
19 24 Alberto Casadei ITA 07:48:08 08:49:13 00:49:15 03:53:03 03:00:49 38% +16% -46% (7) 81
20 15 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 07:48:52 08:49:24 00:55:49 03:44:05 03:03:57 61% +19% -20% (11) 83
21 9 Chris McDonald AUS 07:49:14 08:46:26 00:54:44 03:45:57 03:03:34 62% +8% -30% (41) 75
22 49 Jonathan Shearon USA 07:52:10 08:55:15 00:55:06 03:44:46 03:07:18 57% +12% -31% (13) 105
23 46 Michael Ruenz GER 07:53:18 08:52:33 00:56:25 03:52:10 02:59:42 54% +0% -46% (7) 94
24 28 Trevor Delsaut FRA 07:54:25 08:59:41 00:55:44 03:52:37 03:01:04 38% +10% -52% (22) 120
25 21 Mauro Baertsch SUI 07:56:14 08:59:09 00:55:30 03:52:26 03:03:17 45% +32% -23% (9) 118
26 53 Harry Wiltshire GBR 07:57:35 08:53:24 00:49:39 03:53:03 03:09:53 26% +32% -42% (14) 96
27 45 Scott Neyedli GBR 07:58:01 08:52:31 00:52:36 03:53:51 03:06:33 55% +5% -40% (18) (94)
28 17 Balazs Csoke HUN 07:58:20 09:05:10 00:49:23 03:50:24 03:13:33 56% +10% -34% (22) 150
29 11 Swen Sundberg GER 07:58:43 08:58:56 00:54:30 03:49:06 03:10:07 55% +1% -44% (17) 116
30 37 Stephen Kilshaw CAN 07:58:52 09:11:40 00:56:19 03:52:56 03:04:38 59% +40% -1% (8) 177
31 12 Jozsef Major HUN 07:58:57 08:55:22 00:59:21 03:45:47 03:08:49 76% +5% -19% (30) 106
32 51 Gudmund Snilstveit NOR 07:58:57 08:59:31 00:58:51 03:45:33 03:09:33 61% +28% -11% (7) 119
33 39 Jaroslav Kovacic SLO 08:00:31 09:03:45 00:50:57 03:58:04 03:06:31 22% +78% -0% (3) 139
34 44 Matic Modic SLO 08:01:01 09:04:30 00:57:03 03:52:02 03:06:56 47% +39% -13% (6) 143
35 20 Mike Schifferle SUI 08:01:54 09:02:14 01:02:01 03:49:53 03:05:00 84% +12% -4% (54) 130
36 48 Francisco Serrano MEX 08:03:24 09:09:54 00:52:31 03:51:36 03:14:17 100% +0% -0% (1) (170)
37 25 Antony Costes FRA 08:04:22 09:09:41 00:50:00 03:45:27 03:23:56 100% +0% -0% (1) (168)
38 31 Derek Garcia USA 08:04:40 09:04:29 00:55:17 03:50:09 03:14:14 81% +7% -12% (10) 142
39 35 Patrick Jaberg SUI 08:05:26 09:04:52 00:55:36 03:53:36 03:11:13 96% +0% -4% (16) 148
40 22 AJ Baucco USA 08:08:44 09:08:09 00:54:12 03:55:13 03:14:18 64% +0% -36% (7) 160
41 26 Matthew Curbeau USA 08:09:43 09:25:53 00:56:46 03:51:41 03:16:17 33% +43% -24% (6) 211
42 50 Denis Sketako SLO 08:13:20 09:17:45 01:00:11 03:53:55 03:14:13 100% +0% -0% (2) (198)
43 34 Samuel Huerzeler SUI 08:16:04 09:14:35 00:55:37 04:02:52 03:12:35 100% +0% -0% (5) 188
44 32 Raymond Botelho USA 08:20:33 09:35:33 00:55:35 03:48:46 03:31:11 32% +36% -31% (14) 241
45 43 Douglas MacLean USA 08:21:16 09:25:38 00:59:36 04:04:27 03:12:14 83% +5% -12% (13) 210
46 41 Colin Laughery USA 08:21:22 09:24:43 01:02:09 04:00:08 03:14:05 100% +0% -0% (2) (209)
47 47 Patrick Schuster USA 08:30:28 09:42:52 01:04:52 03:55:26 03:25:11 50% +25% -24% (7) 251
48 27 Andres Darricau Arg 08:32:01 09:44:52 00:56:16 04:09:18 03:21:27 7% +93% -0% (2) (255)
49 38 Peter Kotland CZE 08:46:54 09:55:53 01:01:04 04:05:18 03:35:32 54% +26% -21% (21) 269
50 30 Jonathan Fecik USA 08:55:26 10:05:32 00:59:07 03:55:19 03:56:00 38% +0% -62% (2) (281)
33 Aaron Gray USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
40 Patrick Lange GER n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
52 Josh Terwoord USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Female Race Participants

Rank Bib Name Nation Expected Time Rating Exp. Swim Exp. Bike Exp. Run Consistency Overall
1 62 Julia Gajer GER 08:18:48 09:17:12 00:54:47 04:08:13 03:10:48 77% +0% -23% (11) 9
2 61 Kelly Williamson USA 08:19:16 09:30:43 00:54:41 04:19:49 02:59:46 77% +12% -11% (12) 27
3 64 Sarah Piampiano USA 08:25:44 09:32:16 01:04:13 04:05:18 03:11:12 41% +47% -12% (14) 32
4 63 Rebekah Keat AUS 08:29:34 09:25:16 00:55:22 04:11:31 03:17:42 85% +1% -14% (22) (20)
5 66 Amanda Stevens USA 08:29:43 09:30:05 00:53:25 04:12:19 03:18:59 60% +21% -19% (17) 26
6 69 Lisa Roberts USA 08:32:53 09:37:54 01:06:32 04:13:42 03:07:39 76% +3% -21% (16) 41
7 72 Katy Blakemore USA 08:35:53 09:50:10 00:53:54 04:14:49 03:22:09 67% +13% -20% (8) 65
8 67 Bree Wee USA 08:36:37 09:48:38 00:55:45 04:13:31 03:22:21 60% +7% -32% (22) 62
9 65 Emma-Kate Lidbury GBR 08:41:50 09:48:00 00:55:20 04:09:24 03:32:06 100% +0% -0% (2) (61)
10 90 Darbi Roberts USA 08:43:04 09:58:23 00:54:45 04:16:54 03:26:25 37% +0% -63% (5) 86
11 78 Kirsty Jahn CAN 08:43:24 09:57:44 01:01:48 04:22:26 03:14:10 100% +0% -0% (1) (84)
12 85 Mackenzie Madison USA 08:45:29 09:49:27 01:00:42 04:15:41 03:24:06 69% +0% -31% (11) 63
13 70 Jen Annett CAN 08:52:38 10:07:05 01:05:55 04:16:23 03:25:20 34% +34% -32% (4) 103
14 81 Jessica Meyers USA 08:52:43 10:04:43 01:01:03 04:17:49 03:28:51 100% +0% -0% (5) 95
15 75 Saleta Castro ESP 08:54:43 10:11:01 00:57:39 04:23:03 03:29:01 53% +47% -0% (8) 110
16 77 Christine Hammond USA 08:55:59 10:03:39 00:56:35 04:20:01 03:34:23 100% +0% -0% (7) (93)
17 87 Jocelyn Mccauley USA 08:59:13 10:22:47 01:00:35 04:20:08 03:33:30 41% +0% -59% (4) (142)
18 84 Heather Leiggi USA 09:00:40 10:20:03 01:02:38 04:19:41 03:33:21 46% +13% -41% (6) 135
19 76 Christine Fletcher CAN 09:06:44 10:10:27 01:00:55 04:21:09 03:39:40 92% +8% -0% (20) 109
20 86 Caroline Martineau CAN 09:12:29 10:46:58 01:05:09 04:25:47 03:36:33 20% +49% -31% (4) 177
21 80 Amy Javens USA 09:17:34 10:23:37 01:09:09 04:19:41 03:43:44 100% +0% -0% (5) 145
22 79 Rachel Jastrebsky USA 09:18:10 10:29:05 01:03:16 04:30:28 03:39:26 100% +0% -0% (5) (161)
23 83 Angela Kuehnlein GER 09:20:47 10:30:33 01:04:47 04:33:39 03:37:21 61% +0% -39% (5) 164
24 82 Corrie Kristick USA 09:35:56 11:00:48 00:53:56 04:15:11 04:21:48 44% +0% -56% (2) (181)
25 74 Terry Casey USA 09:53:56 11:12:19 01:00:49 04:27:57 04:20:10 100% +0% -0% (1) (182)
68 Alicia Kaye USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
71 Liz Baugher USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
73 Lauren Brandon USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
88 Carrie Mccoy USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
89 Kathy Rakel USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)
91 Jodie Robertson USA n/a unrated unrated unrated unrated (n/a)

Winning Odds

Male Race Participants

While Nils Frommhold is my statistical pick for the win, the shortened bike course should play into the hands of defending champion Matt Hanson and other strong runners such as Jeff Symonds, Matt Russell or Callum Millward. The Spaniards Eneko Llanos and Clemente Alonso will contend for the podium when healthy, but I can’t really see them winning. The shortened bike will negate a large part of the strengths of Jordan Rapp, Michael Weiss and especially Andy Strarykowicz:

  • Nils Frommhold: 26% (3-1)
  • Matt Hanson: 17% (5-1)
  • Eneko Llanos: 13% (7-1)
  • Clemente Alonso McKernan: 12% (7-1)
  • Jordan Rapp: 9% (10-1)
  • Michael Weiss: 7% (13-1)
  • Jeff Symonds: 6% (17-1)
  • Matthew Russell: 4% (25-1)
  • Callum Millward: 2% (54-1)

Female Race Participants

On the female side the data points to another German winner: Julia Gajer is the pre-race favorite. But Julia and also Sarah Piampiano will need to have a great run to be able to take the win, especially as the shortened bike course will improve the chances of Kelly Williamson. With Amanda Stevens it’s hard to assess how fresh she is going to be (she raced New Zealand in March), and Rebekah Keat hasn’t raced an Ironman in more than two years. Lisa Roberts could be a surprise contender on race day – she’s got excellent bike skills and is also a fast runner.

  • Julia Gajer: 44% (1-1)
  • Sarah Piampiano: 22% (4-1)
  • Kelly Williamson: 19% (4-1)
  • Amanda Stevens: 5% (17-1)
  • Rebekah Keat: 4% (22-1)
  • Lisa Roberts: 2% (42-1)

In addition to these there are Iron-Rookie Alicia Kaye and not-really-Iron-Rookie Lauren Brandon (she DNF’d in New Zealand) who can have an impact on how the race develops.

Trackbacks/Pingbacks

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