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May 2012

IM Brazil 2012 – Predictions (Details Post)

Male Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Santiago Ascenco BRA 08:28:06 08:40:37 35
2 Eduardo Sturla ARG 08:29:30 08:42:03 41
3 Guilherme Manocchio BRA 08:44:04 08:56:58 116
4 Ezequiel Morales ARG 08:46:56 08:59:55 132
5 Oscar Galindez ARG 08:51:18 09:04:23 160
6 Andrey Lyatskiy RUS 08:58:16 09:11:31 207
7 Raul Furtado BRA 09:01:01 09:14:20 229
8 Lucas da silveira Pretto 09:02:32 09:15:54 236
9 Rafael Wyss SWI 09:03:07 09:16:29 242
10 Antonio Filho BRA 09:04:57 09:18:22 265
11 Mario De Elias ARG 09:05:12 09:18:37 269
12 Ivan Albano BRA 09:08:43 09:22:14 299
13 Luiz Francisco Ferreira BRA 09:10:04 09:23:37 305
14 Frederico Monteiro 09:13:05 09:26:42 329
15 Hiroyuki Nishiuchi JPN 09:13:16 09:26:53 332
16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:30:04 09:44:06 450
17 Lucas Cocha ARG 09:30:29 09:44:32 454
18 Sandi Ivancic SLO 09:34:14 09:48:22 478
19 Matjaz Kovac SVN 09:36:10 09:50:21 498
20 Christian emiliano Carletto 09:37:47 09:52:01 511
21 Santiago Amigo ARG 09:48:12 10:02:41 573
22 Ciro Violin n/a unrated n/a
23 Geovani Muchinski n/a unrated n/a
24 Thiago Vinhal n/a unrated n/a
25 Frank Silvestrin n/a unrated n/a
26 Igor Amorelli n/a unrated n/a
27 Antônio Marcos da souza da silva n/a unrated n/a
28 Gabriel Raff n/a unrated n/a
29 Rodrigo Ferreira n/a unrated n/a
30 Felipe De Oliveira Manente n/a unrated n/a
31 Guto Antunes n/a unrated n/a
32 Greg Close USA n/a unrated n/a
33 Frederico Carvalho Zacharias n/a unrated n/a
34 Marcio Roniak n/a unrated n/a

Female Race Participants

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:22:18 09:36:09 26
2 Sofie Goos BEL 09:30:26 09:44:29 47
3 Kim Loeffler USA 09:33:13 09:47:20 53
4 Sara Gross CAN 09:41:52 09:56:12 75
5 Dede Griesbauer USA 09:44:57 09:59:21 85
6 Ana Lidia Borba BRA 09:47:16 10:01:44 89
7 Hillary Biscay USA 09:59:43 10:14:29 139
8 Maki Nishiuchi JPN 10:08:50 10:23:50 170
9 Ariane Monticeli BRA 10:08:55 10:23:55 171
10 Fernanda Keller BRA 10:22:37 10:37:57 200
11 Silvia Fusco BRA 10:23:12 10:38:33 202
12 Mariana Andrade BRA 10:45:21 11:01:14 247
13 Alessandra Carvalho BRA 10:47:17 11:03:13 249
14 Vanessa Gianinni BRA n/a unrated n/a

Results for Santiago Ascenco (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:24:24 08:43:58 08:40:37 4
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:18:32 08:34:18 08:38:14 3
IM Arizona 2009-11-22 08:33:26 08:42:47 08:42:47 9

Results for Eduardo Sturla (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 08:23:08 08:44:40 08:42:03 6
IM Lake Placid 2011-07-24 09:04:16 09:06:23 08:41:43 4
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:13:12 08:32:20 08:38:26 1
IM South Africa 2011-04-10 08:32:52 08:44:23 08:39:19 6
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:24:31 08:34:33 08:38:30 3
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:48:07 08:49:06 08:39:11 31
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:20:24 08:36:14 08:37:11 4
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:49:22 08:45:00 08:37:24 19
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:13:39 08:25:44 08:35:42 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 08:36:53 08:35:17 08:38:13 10
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:28:27 08:36:48 08:39:01 1
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 08:36:31 08:36:24 08:39:43 13
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:29:27 08:39:49 08:40:54 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 08:23:49 08:33:11 08:41:25 2
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:39:06 08:45:35 08:47:02 7
IM Austria 2005-07-03 08:48:43 08:48:43 08:48:43 14

Results for Guilherme Manocchio (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:20:56 09:14:55 08:56:58 10
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:15:30 08:34:43 08:43:41 2
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:39:11 08:55:37 08:55:37 7

Results for Ezequiel Morales (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wisconsin 2011-09-11 08:45:18 08:45:27 08:59:55 1
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:19:49 08:39:12 09:02:53 3
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 10:09:11 10:21:18 09:08:26 23
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 08:56:02 08:57:02 08:49:54 40
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:12:43 08:28:18 08:47:35 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 08:54:27 08:50:03 08:55:32 23
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:39:01 08:51:44 08:58:24 4
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:55:55 09:04:43 09:04:21 6
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:56:53 09:03:36 09:03:36 12

Results for Oscar Galindez (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:27:15 09:41:30 09:04:23 22
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 08:48:53 08:59:24 08:54:52 13
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:32:59 08:49:13 08:53:47 5
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 09:19:49 09:25:55 08:54:58 7
IM France 2009-06-28 09:08:26 09:15:17 08:45:58 7
IM Western Australia 2008-12-07 08:27:28 08:42:03 08:35:48 7
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 08:21:11 08:31:23 08:33:11 1
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 08:33:24 08:29:31 08:33:51 13
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:15:19 08:21:30 08:35:49 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 08:29:50 08:29:19 08:43:51 11
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:00:04 09:00:04 09:00:04 2

Results for Andrey Lyatskiy (RUS)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:25:43 09:19:39 09:11:31 11
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:43:05 08:56:14 09:06:44 5
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:07:09 09:18:19 09:18:19 20

Results for Raul Furtado (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 08:54:39 09:08:05 09:14:20 11
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:09:39 09:15:43 09:17:29 16
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:53:20 09:06:24 09:18:50 5
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:55:04 09:03:51 09:28:21 5
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:49:00 10:01:00 10:01:00 26

Results for Lucas da silveira Pretto ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:01:52 09:19:01 09:15:54 10
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 08:56:49 09:09:58 09:13:32 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 09:09:17 09:18:18 09:18:18 11

Results for Rafael Wyss (SWI)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Switzerland 2011-07-10 08:51:36 09:05:51 09:16:29 7
IM Lanzarote 2011-05-21 09:05:41 09:01:04 09:18:18 8
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 08:47:16 08:58:26 09:21:42 9
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:11:28 09:09:36 09:25:58 10
IM Switzerland 2009-07-12 08:50:16 09:04:05 09:29:27 8
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:41:55 09:39:00 09:34:29 20
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:28:35 09:35:51 09:33:25 25
IM Switzerland 2008-07-13 09:09:39 09:22:42 09:32:50 13
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 09:46:04 09:43:28 09:35:49 22
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:00:31 09:14:14 09:32:48 9
IM Lanzarote 2007-05-20 09:41:33 09:39:18 09:40:53 10
IM Switzerland 2006-07-02 09:18:48 09:31:47 09:42:02 14
IM Switzerland 2005-07-15 09:50:38 09:55:33 09:55:33 19

Results for Antonio Filho (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:56:26 09:17:14 09:18:22 11
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:16:46 09:23:44 09:23:44 15

Results for Mario De Elias (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:06:20 09:18:37 09:18:37 8

Results for Ivan Albano (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM South Africa 2012-04-22 09:40:30 09:34:17 09:22:14 14
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:01:14 09:14:51 09:20:11 30
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 09:21:39 09:32:19 09:21:08 5
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:48:57 09:09:28 09:18:54 7
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 08:54:05 09:10:59 09:21:03 9
IM Cozumel 2009-11-29 09:23:59 09:30:07 09:23:08 9
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:04:38 09:17:58 09:21:37 10
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 10:31:50 10:27:41 09:22:28 17
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 08:58:55 09:07:46 09:07:26 7
IM Florida 2007-11-03 08:50:46 09:06:40 09:07:21 18
IM Louisville 2007-08-26 09:11:09 09:12:54 09:07:33 9
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:15:57 09:11:44 09:05:25 52
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 08:45:00 08:51:34 09:02:32 8
IM Wisconsin 2005-09-11 09:27:56 09:12:46 09:08:46 7
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:04:25 09:04:25 09:04:25 5

Results for Luiz Francisco Ferreira (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:19:46 09:33:50 09:23:37 19
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:51:14 09:11:50 09:11:50 8

Results for Frederico Monteiro ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:03:01 09:20:12 09:26:42 11
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:13:59 09:27:33 09:31:20 13
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:32:16 09:43:55 09:35:38 21
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:20:56 09:20:56 09:20:56 9

Results for Hiroyuki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:18:01 09:27:20 09:26:53 30
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 09:26:42 09:28:03 09:26:48 34
IM Canada 2011-08-28 10:00:39 10:05:22 09:26:35 20
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:18:12 09:25:27 09:18:34 4
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 09:25:39 09:27:06 09:16:52 9
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 09:11:43 09:12:45 09:13:55 47
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:23:13 09:18:35 09:14:20 49
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 08:55:00 08:58:17 09:12:50 6
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:13:56 09:21:01 09:20:18 20
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:18:41 09:18:33 09:19:51 42
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:17:17 09:16:44 09:21:05 55
IM New Zealand 2005-05-03 09:26:02 09:26:02 09:26:02 21

Results for Eneko Elosegui (ESP)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 08:54:57 09:06:53 09:44:06 13
IM UK 2010-08-01 09:38:53 09:45:57 09:52:08 7
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 09:21:08 09:19:14 09:53:39 14
IM UK 2009-08-02 09:36:48 09:33:41 10:04:06 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:59:58 09:56:58 10:13:46 26
IM New Zealand 2009-03-07 10:44:38 10:54:26 10:20:58 24
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 10:00:09 09:58:21 09:58:17 17
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:51:39 09:58:11 09:58:11 23

Results for Lucas Cocha (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 08:51:41 09:12:18 09:44:32 9
IM France 2010-06-27 10:28:08 10:44:05 10:08:46 15
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:07:16 09:20:40 09:20:40 12

Results for Sandi Ivancic (SLO)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Austria 2010-07-04 09:23:41 09:42:15 09:48:22 29
IM Austria 2009-07-05 09:38:32 09:56:31 09:56:31 30

Results for Matjaz Kovac (SVN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Wales 2011-09-11 10:22:11 10:11:56 09:50:21 15
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 09:09:08 09:21:29 09:47:50 10
IM Germany 2011-07-24 09:34:50 09:46:34 09:51:13 24
IM Arizona 2010-11-21 10:07:28 10:21:01 09:51:53 33
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 09:32:03 09:34:30 09:47:56 15
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:40:45 09:44:06 09:49:55 11
IM Regensburg 2010-08-01 09:11:55 09:20:07 09:50:54 11
IM Austria 2010-07-04 09:29:03 09:47:48 09:57:05 30
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:16:55 10:14:50 09:59:22 20
IM Canada 2009-08-30 09:16:22 09:20:50 09:54:34 14
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:04:22 10:04:49 10:05:53 16
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 09:45:36 09:42:40 10:06:24 23
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:11:43 10:09:00 10:26:40 31
IM Lanzarote 2006-05-20 11:03:01 10:58:11 10:58:11 34

Results for Christian emiliano Carletto ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 09:29:48 09:54:11 09:52:01 22
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:28:54 09:50:58 09:50:56 14
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:19:27 09:33:09 09:50:55 14
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 09:38:09 09:47:38 10:04:31 21
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 10:14:29 10:27:00 10:27:00 30

Results for Santiago Amigo (ARG)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:40:11 10:02:41 10:02:41 15

Results for Ciro Violin ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Geovani Muchinski ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Thiago Vinhal ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Frank Silvestrin ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Igor Amorelli ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Antônio Marcos da souza da silva ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Gabriel Raff ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Rodrigo Ferreira ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Felipe De Oliveira Manente ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Guto Antunes ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Greg Close (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Frederico Carvalho Zacharias ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Marcio Roniak ()

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

Results for Michelle Vesterby (DNK)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Lanzarote 2012-05-19 09:58:06 09:53:01 09:36:09 1
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 09:19:05 09:28:25 09:26:55 9
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:11:23 09:25:15 09:25:15 5

Results for Sofie Goos (BEL)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 09:22:21 09:46:25 09:44:29 3
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:12:53 09:18:59 09:43:49 3
IM Cozumel 2010-11-28 09:45:05 09:56:44 09:54:47 4
IM Florida 2009-11-07 09:08:38 09:25:32 09:53:34 1
IM Lanzarote 2008-05-24 10:30:44 10:27:56 10:17:40 7
IM Switzerland 2007-06-24 09:49:21 10:04:18 10:04:18 6

Results for Kim Loeffler (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Florida 2011-11-05 09:29:07 09:53:28 09:47:20 4
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:34:54 09:39:25 09:46:34 2
IM France 2011-06-26 09:53:08 09:57:43 09:47:31 4
IM Texas 2011-05-21 09:20:04 09:26:15 09:46:02 6
IM Florida 2010-11-06 09:21:26 09:39:03 09:49:17 3
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 09:44:23 09:47:45 09:50:57 2
IM New Zealand 2010-03-06 09:30:57 09:37:41 09:51:33 3
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:32:00 10:26:48 09:54:11 35
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 09:38:23 09:41:56 09:47:32 3
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:33:54 09:41:18 09:48:54 4
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:54:55 09:53:08 09:50:46 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:00:15 10:00:06 09:50:06 21
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:33:43 09:38:13 09:47:08 3
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:48:40 09:44:12 09:50:05 15
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 10:16:39 10:17:12 09:52:34 11
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:30:18 09:29:44 09:37:03 8
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 09:49:44 09:44:51 09:44:51 2

Results for Sara Gross (CAN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 09:56:29 10:11:29 09:56:12 6
IM Arizona 2011-11-19 09:18:03 09:32:05 09:53:36 8
IM Canada 2011-08-28 09:46:56 09:51:33 09:57:58 4
IM Canada 2009-08-30 10:42:08 10:47:18 09:59:28 13
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:44:46 09:59:05 09:52:11 4
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:06:10 10:04:18 09:51:03 20
IM Canada 2008-08-24 09:41:31 09:48:57 09:48:56 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2008-06-22 10:03:45 10:08:03 09:48:55 4
IM Florida 2007-11-03 09:24:41 09:41:36 09:44:56 7
IM Canada 2007-08-26 09:43:34 09:45:27 09:45:38 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:24:06 09:35:51 09:45:41 4
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:33:09 09:44:49 09:48:47 5
IM Western Australia 2006-12-03 09:15:33 09:23:17 09:50:31 2
IM Canada 2006-08-27 10:12:35 10:11:37 10:07:18 5
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:03:55 10:01:34 10:01:34 6

Results for Dede Griesbauer (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:28:23 10:35:19 09:59:21 15
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:40:14 10:41:26 09:52:33 37
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:26:08 09:44:03 09:43:20 2
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 09:40:59 09:36:12 09:43:11 9
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:10:15 09:23:44 09:44:37 1
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 09:39:53 09:38:05 09:49:22 10
IM Austria 2008-07-13 09:49:16 10:08:18 09:52:00 12
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:33:34 09:33:26 09:47:28 7
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:18:18 09:29:40 09:51:32 2
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 10:14:22 10:09:43 09:59:10 32
IM UK 2006-08-16 09:37:41 09:40:03 09:54:46 1
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 09:54:34 09:53:58 10:04:26 17
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:20:44 10:15:36 10:15:36 8

Results for Ana Lidia Borba (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 12:03:10 12:31:13 10:01:44 13
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:52:29 10:07:00 10:01:44 5
IM Arizona 2008-11-23 09:48:03 09:55:38 09:55:38 7

Results for Hillary Biscay (USA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Australia 2012-04-29 09:58:19 10:08:58 10:14:29 3
IM Western Australia 2011-12-04 09:39:41 09:49:16 10:14:51 5
IM Louisville 2011-08-28 10:09:32 10:21:07 10:16:30 8
IM Korea 2011-07-03 10:12:20 10:20:18 10:16:12 3
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:33:14 09:55:28 10:15:57 4
IM Hawaii 2010-10-09 10:47:51 10:49:04 10:17:18 39
IM Wisconsin 2010-09-12 10:29:06 10:31:47 10:15:26 7
IM Louisville 2010-08-29 10:52:37 10:56:23 10:14:27 9
IM Coeur d’Alene 2010-06-27 10:39:44 10:46:35 10:11:45 11
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 09:44:38 10:03:08 10:09:29 4
IM Lanzarote 2010-05-22 10:41:44 10:39:34 10:09:55 9
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:02:58 10:01:02 10:05:02 3
IM Lake Placid 2009-07-26 10:47:50 10:48:19 10:05:17 12
IM Lanzarote 2009-05-23 10:28:45 10:25:36 10:02:24 5
Challenge Wanaka 2009-01-01 10:16:39 10:23:26 10:00:50 2
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:35:10 10:33:12 09:59:22 35
IM Wisconsin 2008-09-07 09:47:25 09:48:02 09:57:10 1
IM Louisville 2008-08-27 09:59:33 09:55:37 09:57:47 4
IM Lake Placid 2008-07-20 09:58:45 09:56:57 09:57:57 3
Challenge Roth 2008-07-13 09:24:19 09:46:59 09:58:01 6
IM Brasil 2008-05-25 09:56:10 10:05:57 09:58:54 2
IM Arizona 2008-04-13 09:53:21 09:57:43 09:58:19 8
Challenge Wanaka 2008-01-19 10:11:17 10:15:19 09:58:22 2
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 09:56:46 09:56:38 09:56:51 20
IM Wisconsin 2007-09-09 10:01:30 10:00:27 09:56:52 2
IM UK 2007-08-19 09:49:50 09:56:21 09:56:31 2
IM Austria 2007-07-08 09:39:23 09:51:27 09:56:33 6
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:44:14 09:56:08 09:57:07 6
IM Arizona 2007-04-15 11:33:07 11:37:11 10:07:48 10
IM New Zealand 2007-03-03 09:34:53 09:39:24 09:57:14 4
Challenge Wanaka 2007-01-20 09:58:35 10:01:09 09:59:32 3
IM Florida 2006-11-04 09:40:39 09:51:27 09:59:18 3
IM Wisconsin 2006-09-10 10:07:01 09:53:10 10:00:32 2
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:30:37 09:42:58 10:01:49 4
IM Coeur d’Alene 2006-06-25 09:59:46 10:00:18 10:05:35 5
IM Arizona 2006-04-09 09:43:36 09:44:48 10:06:53 3
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:34:19 09:41:30 10:13:31 3
IM Canada 2005-08-29 10:36:56 10:34:27 10:25:50 11
IM Lake Placid 2005-07-24 10:31:33 10:26:19 10:21:13 10
IM Arizona 2005-04-09 10:15:40 10:15:40 10:15:40 7

Results for Maki Nishiuchi (JPN)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Hawaii 2011-10-15 10:36:33 10:38:04 10:23:50 25
IM Canada 2011-08-28 10:44:42 10:49:46 10:20:49 7
IM Korea 2011-07-03 09:56:28 10:04:13 10:13:23 2
IM Texas 2011-05-21 10:06:29 10:13:11 10:16:22 12
IM New Zealand 2011-03-05 10:16:48 10:18:23 10:17:50 9
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:31:57 10:26:45 10:17:25 34
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:04:03 10:07:46 10:07:46 6

Results for Ariane Monticeli (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Regensburg 2011-08-07 11:03:14 11:18:09 10:23:55 7
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:17:25 09:39:02 10:00:01 3
IM Switzerland 2010-07-25 10:10:58 10:23:54 10:15:02 8
IM Wisconsin 2009-09-13 10:05:37 10:03:41 10:03:41 4

Results for Fernanda Keller (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Melbourne 2012-03-24 10:26:28 10:36:56 10:37:57 16
IM Canada 2011-08-28 11:26:40 11:32:04 10:38:07 9
IM Germany 2011-07-24 11:07:02 11:20:39 10:29:57 12
IM Austria 2011-07-03 10:39:08 11:12:08 10:21:13 12
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:48:03 10:10:51 10:10:48 5
IM Hawaii 2009-10-10 10:37:44 10:32:29 10:10:48 36
IM Louisville 2009-08-28 10:00:22 10:04:03 10:06:49 5
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 09:54:11 10:08:44 10:07:25 6
IM Hawaii 2008-10-11 10:43:16 10:41:17 10:07:05 36
IM Hawaii 2007-10-13 10:25:03 10:24:54 09:58:00 34
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 09:29:29 09:41:05 09:51:18 4
IM Hawaii 2006-10-21 09:50:35 09:46:07 09:54:15 17
IM Austria 2006-07-16 09:44:06 09:56:44 09:56:50 7
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 09:51:39 09:59:03 09:56:52 5
IM Hawaii 2005-10-15 10:10:30 10:09:53 09:55:39 29
IM Brasil 2005-05-28 09:39:46 09:39:46 09:39:46 2

Results for Silvia Fusco (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:18:38 10:42:38 10:38:33 9
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:15:56 10:35:25 10:35:53 7
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 10:21:54 10:37:08 10:36:21 11
IM Brasil 2006-01-01 10:26:24 10:34:14 10:34:14 11

Results for Mariana Andrade (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Cozumel 2011-11-27 11:36:34 11:54:04 11:01:14 15
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 09:49:41 10:12:33 10:38:03 6
IM Brasil 2010-05-30 10:19:51 10:39:28 10:53:41 8
IM Brasil 2009-05-31 10:32:27 10:47:56 11:05:49 13
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 11:23:48 11:37:43 11:37:43 15

Results for Alessandra Carvalho (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race
IM Brasil 2011-05-29 10:19:49 10:43:51 11:03:13 10
IM Brasil 2007-05-27 11:50:05 12:04:33 12:04:33 20

Results for Vanessa Gianinni (BRA)

Race Date Total Adjusted Rating Rank in Race

IM Texas 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

The conditions in Texas were a lot better than in Lanzarote: It might have been hot, but the adjustment of 14:12 still allowed for some fast times. The male course record (8:08 by Eneko Llanos) was in danger, but held when Mathias Hecht faded on the run, and the old women’s record ( 8:57 by Cat Morrison) was beaten.

Male Results

Jordan Rapp raced a smart race and managed to win with a fantastic marathon time:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Jordan Rapp USA 00:53:36 04:25:43 02:46:55 08:10:44 08:17:27
2 Justin Daerr USA 00:55:27 04:33:51 02:48:33 08:22:15 08:37:38
3 Mathias Hecht SWI 00:48:54 04:18:17 03:11:29 08:22:58 08:28:07
4 Jozsef Major HUN 00:59:16 04:24:54 02:57:30 08:27:19 08:34:26
5 Brandon Marsh USA 00:48:48 04:35:39 03:01:02 08:30:18 08:53:49
6 Joe Umphenour 00:48:48 04:40:21 03:01:46 08:36:19 08:35:11
7 Rasmus Henning DNK 00:48:55 04:30:55 03:13:36 08:37:23 08:14:29
8 Christian Brader GER 00:59:19 04:33:32 03:01:53 08:39:07 08:47:04
9 Matthew Russell USA 01:04:47 04:39:52 02:53:25 08:42:50 08:52:51
10 Pedro Gomez POR 00:53:31 04:38:48 03:07:54 08:44:53 08:35:15
11 Jonathan Shearon 00:56:55 04:34:20 03:10:12 08:46:37 n/a
12 Mike Schifferle SWI 01:02:52 04:41:43 03:00:06 08:51:57 09:00:04
13 Jim Lamastra 00:53:31 04:45:43 03:11:34 08:55:20 n/a
14 Balazs Csoke HUN 00:48:50 04:36:27 03:38:48 09:09:02 08:53:49
15 Sergio Quezada MEX 00:53:29 05:02:54 03:33:29 09:36:26 09:57:54
16 Anthony Toth CAN 00:59:31 04:47:19 03:53:55 09:46:40 09:15:41

Jordan has recovered really well from his horrific bike accident, and seems to be on his way to become a serious Kona contender (once he decides to focus on Kona). Bike leader Mathias Hecht struggled on the run, and was also overtaken by Justin Daerr who snatched his third IM podium in a row (after Louisville and Florida 2011). Pre-race favorite Rasmus Henning also had problems on the run (although I didn’t hear any reports about the cause of his problems) and faded to a 7th place. However, he should already have enough Kona points to be able to qualify, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can perform better on the big island.

Female Results

On the women’s side, Mary Beth Ellis added another IM win to her resume:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 00:53:32 04:45:52 03:11:09 08:54:58 09:06:37
2 Caitlin Snow USA 00:55:32 05:08:54 02:51:46 09:01:32 09:27:47
3 Amy Marsh USA 00:53:33 04:45:51 03:20:13 09:04:00 09:15:54
4 Corinne Abraham 01:04:06 05:08:21 03:01:50 09:18:39 09:33:27
5 Charisa Wernick USA 00:59:11 05:07:33 03:16:28 09:27:43 09:56:18
6 Sarah Piampiano 01:03:13 05:09:00 03:30:18 09:47:38 09:56:52
7 Christie Sym AUS 00:59:09 04:58:48 03:53:01 09:55:56 09:47:15
8 Caroline Gregory USA 01:02:55 05:29:01 03:31:32 10:07:47 09:52:34
9 Jackie Pearce 01:11:33 05:15:30 03:36:28 10:09:39 n/a
10 Tami Ritchie 00:53:33 05:48:25 03:42:19 10:30:05 10:24:56
11 Sandra Soldan 00:53:37 05:37:23 04:04:15 10:42:06 n/a

Apparently, Mary Beth has planned her season so she can perform better in Kona – last year she had to win three summer IMs in order to qualify, this year she should already have enough points. Amy Marsh was leading the race with Mary Beth until after the bike and held on for third place. (The Marsh couple scored a 5th and a 3rd – not quite as good as the Bayliss’s 2nd and 2nd in Lanzarote.) Amy was overtaken by Caitlin Snow who posted a fantastic 2:51 marathon (good for third best overall run split). There seems to be some weird race for the slowest bike split within a sub-9h total race: Rinnie went 5:07:38 on the bike in Melbourne (but finished 9:04), now Caitlin went 5:08:54 (for a total 9:01). They both missed going sub-9h, so that “honor” still belongs to Chrissie Wellington who went 5:05:02 en route to a 8:57 in Australia 2009. (For the men, I have a 5:17:57 by Gerrit Schellens in Lanzarote 2005 – he finished 8:59:26.)

IM Lanzarote 2012 – Analyzing Results

Race Conditions

Conditions on race day seemed pretty hard – I’ve read a lot of reports of a choppy swim, strong winds on the bike and hot temperatures during the run. This resulted in a race adjustment of –6:32 (i.e. more than six mutes slower than a typical course).

Male Results

After swim and bike leader Philip Graves had to abandon on the run, Ironman rookie Victor del Corral won in a convincing fashion, posting the best bike (the only sub-5!) and run times:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Victor Del Corral ESP 00:53:35 04:54:31 02:50:09 08:44:39 n/a
2 Stephen Bayliss GBR 00:48:01 05:05:40 02:54:07 08:53:37 08:56:55
3 Sergio Marques PRT 00:54:42 05:10:14 02:51:33 09:02:58 09:12:31
4 Bert Jammaer BEL 00:49:40 05:06:12 03:02:11 09:04:41 09:03:51
5 Patrick Jaberg SWI 00:51:44 05:08:29 02:59:15 09:06:25 09:09:17
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 00:54:14 05:10:21 02:55:16 09:07:30 09:04:01
7 Alvaro Velazquez ESP 00:57:17 05:07:15 03:00:08 09:11:13 09:23:33
8 Xavier Diepart BEL 00:56:15 05:08:11 03:01:35 09:13:33 09:30:40
9 Bryan Mccrystal IRE 01:03:38 05:03:09 03:09:32 09:24:04 n/a
10 Remy Vasseur NED 00:54:33 05:26:14 03:07:45 09:35:37 n/a
11 Esben Hovgaard DNK 00:54:41 05:20:06 03:16:06 09:37:33 08:54:57
12 Oliver Simon GBR 00:48:02 05:18:15 03:38:55 09:52:29 09:37:41
13 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA 00:57:17 05:35:47 03:22:13 10:04:45 n/a

My pre-race favorite Bert Jammaer had his first race after a long injury and raced smart, even if he didn’t quite have the run speed to finish on the podium. These spots were taken up by Stephen Bayliss and Sergio Marques.

Female Results

On the female side, the story of the day was Michelle Vesterby who led from wire to wire winning her first Ironman:

Rank Name Nation Swim Bike Run Actual Time Expected Time
1 Michelle Vesterby DNK 00:51:43 05:39:25 03:20:16 09:58:06 09:34:04
2 Bella Bayliss GBR 00:56:12 05:47:54 03:14:06 10:06:12 09:48:39
3 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 01:05:03 05:35:53 03:29:18 10:17:33 09:55:19
4 Nicole Woysch GER 00:56:12 05:50:12 03:41:52 10:37:19 10:26:27
5 Saleta Castro ESP 00:54:35 05:45:30 03:48:52 10:39:34 n/a
6 Tine Holst DEN 01:07:26 05:50:57 03:33:33 10:40:32 n/a
7 Carla Van Rooijen NED 01:11:43 05:57:00 03:24:45 10:43:03 n/a
8 Katya Meyers USA 01:04:46 05:44:52 04:10:24 11:07:55 10:28:04
9 Christine Hemphill AUS 01:00:40 06:07:07 03:58:14 11:13:45 10:34:54

After having a baby, Bella Bayliss finished in the same place as her husband – truly the “Ironcouple”! She posted the best marathon time and ran her way past Heleen Bij De Vaate into second place.

IM Lanzarote 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

IM Lanzarote is one of the classic IM races – similar to Kona as it is held on a volcanic island with often very hard conditions. It has a course rating of –3:05, meaning it is a bit slower than IM Hawaii. Last year’s winners were Timo Bracht (in a course record of 8:30:34) and Rachel Joyce (9:28:12 – not sure if this is the female course record, my results only go back to 2005 and this is the fastest time I have).

Male Participants

There is no rockstar name on the list, but a few second-tier athletes will look for a prestigious IM win:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Kirill Kotshegarov EST 08:50:10 08:47:10 69
2 Esben Hovgaard DNK 08:51:34 08:48:33 83
3 Stephen Bayliss GBR 08:53:31 08:50:30 90
4 Bert Jammaer BEL 09:00:25 08:57:21 118
5 Philip Graves GBR 09:00:32 08:57:28 120
6 Petr Vabrousek CZE 09:00:35 08:57:31 121
7 Simon Billeau FRA 09:04:23 09:01:18 145
8 Patrick Jaberg SWI 09:05:49 09:02:43 151
9 Domenico Passuello ITA 09:08:11 09:05:05 162
10 Sergio Marques PRT 09:09:02 09:05:55 169
11 Alvaro Velazquez ESP 09:19:59 09:16:49 245
12 Ueli Bieler SUI 09:24:56 09:21:44 296
13 Xavier Diepart BEL 09:27:04 09:23:51 307
14 Nicholas Peter Munoz ESP 09:27:11 09:23:58 308
15 Oliver Simon GBR 09:34:02 09:30:47 365
16 Eneko Elosegui ESP 09:47:21 09:44:01 449
17 Fernando Cuenllas ESP 09:58:04 09:54:41 525
18 Victor Del Corral ESP n/a unrated n/a
19 Ludovic Le Guellec FRA n/a unrated n/a
20 Bryan Mccrystal IRE n/a unrated n/a
21 Till Schramm GER n/a unrated n/a
22 David Vazquez ESP n/a unrated n/a
23 Antonio Cardona ESP n/a unrated n/a
24 Remy Vasseur NED n/a unrated n/a
25 Daniel Halksworth GBR n/a unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  • Bert Jammaer: 30%
  • Kirill Kotshegarov: 18%
  • Stephen Bayliss: 18%
  • Philip Graves: 11%
  • Petr Vabrousek: 9%

Kirill Kotshegarov may be the best ranked athlete, but he doesn’t have the experience of a Bert Jammaer or a Stephen Bayliss that might be necessary for winning on such a tough course. Philip Graves comes back to IM racing after a two season hiatus – and if these athletes run into issues, “I hate to train so I just race” Petr Vabrousek will be there with a solid result. He has raced more than 50 IMs, but I don’t know if he has ever won one (I don’t have one in my results). Maybe this year in Lanzarote?

For a while it looked as if Andi Böcherer would be a late addition to the race after his DNF in South Africa. He tweeted that he would start, but then decided to take some more time to recover properly.

Female Participants

On the female side, there are also no rockstars, but quite a few solid racers:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Michelle Vesterby DNK 09:30:26 09:27:12 10
2 Bella Bayliss GBR 09:44:56 09:41:37 39
3 Heleen Bij De Vaate NLD 09:51:33 09:48:12 55
4 Nicole Woysch GER 10:22:30 10:18:58 153
5 Katya Meyers USA 10:24:05 10:20:33 160
6 Christine Hemphill AUS 10:30:53 10:27:19 181
7 Ute Streiter AUT 10:35:58 10:32:22 191
8 Zsuzsanna Harsanyi HUN 11:09:32 11:05:44 248
9 Tine Holst DEN n/a unrated n/a
10 Carla Van Rooijen NED n/a unrated n/a
11 Saleta Castro ESP n/a unrated n/a
12 Melina de Monserratt PRU n/a unrated n/a
13 Christine Waitz GER n/a unrated n/a

The winning odds show a picture that is a bit different:

  • Heleen Bij De Vaate: 32%
  • Michelle Vesterby: 29%
  • Bella Bayliss: 27%

Three potential winners, each with a different background: Michelle Vesterby has not yet raced a lot (but managed to post a few fast times), Heleen Bij de Vaate is a very solid racer (even if she doesn’t yet have the speed to win Kona) and Bella Bayliss coming back after having a baby,

IM Texas 2012 – Predictions (Main Post)

If you are looking for additional information on the participants, you can find a full list of their pro results in the detail post.

Previous Results

Last year was the first time IM Texas was held. The course rating is 5:47 – comparable to South Africa or New Zealand. The premier winner on the men’s side was Eneko Llanos in 8:08:20 (followed by Tim O’Donnell and Luke Bell) and on the women’s side Catriona Morrison in 8:57:51.

Male Participants

As last year (when it was the US Championships and a 400 points race), IM Texas managed to draw a pretty strong field (even if it “only” a 2000 points race):

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Rasmus Henning DNK 08:22:30 08:27:56 10
2 Jordan Rapp USA 08:25:23 08:30:51 14
3 Paul Amey GBR 08:28:28 08:33:58 20
4 Maxim Kriat UKR 08:29:13 08:34:44 24
5 Mathias Hecht SWI 08:36:12 08:41:47 40
6 Torsten Abel GER 08:39:47 08:45:24 57
7 Jozsef Major HUN 08:42:40 08:48:19 80
8 Justin Daerr USA 08:45:54 08:51:35 93
9 Kevin Taddonio USA 08:53:14 08:59:00 129
10 Christian Brader GER 08:55:29 09:01:17 146
11 Matthew Russell USA 09:01:22 09:07:13 175
12 Brandon Marsh USA 09:02:20 09:08:12 183
13 Balazs Csoke HUN 09:02:26 09:08:18 185
14 Mike Schifferle SWI 09:08:47 09:14:43 228
15 Erich Kunz SUI 09:11:52 09:17:50 259
16 Scott Defilippis USA 09:17:51 09:23:53 308
17 Toby Radcliffe GBR 09:18:22 09:24:24 313
18 Olly Piggin CAN 09:19:17 09:25:20 316
19 Anthony Toth CAN 09:24:31 09:30:38 361
20 Jesse Vondracek USA 09:27:47 09:33:56 381
21 Mac Brown USA 09:38:31 09:44:47 457
22 Sergio Quezada MEX 10:07:21 10:13:55 647
23 Jim Lamastra n/a unrated n/a
24 Robert Wade n/a unrated n/a
25 Benoit Bourguet n/a unrated n/a
26 Jonathan Shearon n/a unrated n/a
27 Alex Weber n/a unrated n/a

Here are the winning odds:

  • Jordan Rapp: 33%
  • Paul Amey: 26%
  • Rasmus Henning: 23%
  • Maxim Kriat: 6%
  • Mathias Hecht: 6%

Rasmus Henning is the top rated athlete, but he has had some weaker results on the IM distance (especially in Hawaii) which hurt his winning odds. However, he seems to have figured out some of the issues that were plaguing him, as evidenced by his win in Abu Dhabi. Still, I would consider Jordan Rapp as the favorite for the race. He has recovered well from his horrendous bike accident as has shown great form in Wildflower. Paul Amey will be able to show that his strong IM Arizona (when he pushed Eneko Llanos to the finish and nearly managed to go sub-8) was not a fluke. Maxim Kriat is another interesting athlete with a lot of potential. He comes from a short-course background and did IM Floria in 2009 and 2011, both times finishing second. Then there is Mathias Hecht, the winner of St. George in 2011. Lots of potential winners!

Female Participants

On the women’s side, the field mostly comes from the USA:

Rank Name Nation Expected Time Rating Rank
1 Mary Beth Ellis USA 09:15:28 09:21:29 7
2 Kathleen Calkins USA 09:20:26 09:26:30 10
3 Amy Marsh USA 09:24:46 09:30:53 20
4 Caitlin Snow USA 09:32:12 09:38:23 35
5 Corinne Abraham USA 09:43:36 09:49:55 59
6 Caroline Gregory USA 10:01:51 10:08:22 115
7 Charisa Wernick USA 10:05:46 10:12:19 133
8 Sarah Piampiano 10:06:25 10:12:59 135
9 Marilyn McDonald CAN 10:14:07 10:20:46 163
10 Cindy Lewis 10:20:53 10:27:36 182
11 Tami Ritchie 10:34:55 10:41:47 211
12 Amanda McKenzie USA 10:52:52 10:59:56 242
13 Sandra Soldan n/a unrated n/a
14 Jackie Pearce n/a unrated n/a

The winning odds for the females look as follows:

  • Mary Beth Ellis: 40%
  • Amy Marsh: 27%
  • Caitlin Snow: 18%
  • Kathleen Calkins: 11%

Mary Beth Ellis is the clear favorite – after winning three Ironman races last summer to qualify for Kona, she hopefully manages to qualify in fewer races this year so she can properly prepare for Kona. Amy Marsh also has three Ironman wins to her name , while Caitlin Snow will look to win her first one. Kathleen Calkins is a name that most people will not be familiar with – she only has one Ironman pro result (a 7th place in IM Arizona 2011 in 9:12), but she has a lot of experience racing as an age grouper and winning the F30-34 age group in Hawaii.

Corrections:

  • Amy pointed out on Twitter she has four IM wins – I missed IM China which I don’t have in my results.
  • As Cait pointed out on twitter, she has won an Ironman before: She won IM Lake Placid under her maiden name of “Shea-Kenney”. I have now connected these two “dots” in my data, but it doesn’t really change my predictions.

Thanks to Amy and Cait for pointing out these errors – and sorry for missing your wins.

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